After the upward movement of precious metals in November, they entered a period of sideways consolidation
According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, as of November 27, 2025, the spot gold price in the morning market was 941.83 yuan per gram, up 2.53% from the spot gold price of 918.62 yuan per gram at the beginning of the month (November 1).
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, the average price of silver in the market on November 27, 2025 was 12,395 yuan per kilogram, marking an 8.01% increase compared to the average price of 11,476 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of the month (November 1).
After an upward trend in November, the precious metals market experienced a slight pullback before entering a phase of sideways consolidation with a slightly stronger bias.
Overview of Precious Metals and Crude Oil Price Trends
Since 2025, the correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil prices has shifted from a short-term weak positive relationship to a long-term significant negative one.
Comparison of Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) Price Trends Over the Past Year
Over the past year, gold and silver have consistently maintained a strong positive correlation. The price movements of both metals generally trend in the same direction, with their upward and downward trends largely synchronized during most periods. In November, the silver price surged even more sharply due to the London squeeze incident.
The intrinsic logic behind the resilience of precious metal prices
Supporting logic for high prices of precious metals: high central bank gold purchases, resilient physical demand, and potential marginal inflows from ETFs. The significant surge in precious metals this year was primarily driven by the synergistic effects of “declining real interest rates + weakening US dollar + increased central bank purchases.”.
Recent Trading Logic for Precious Metals
1. Investment Demand and Inventory Tightness: Since October, global gold ETFs have been increasing holdings for five consecutive months, with a cumulative addition of 55.4 tons (47 tons in North America, 45 tons in Asia, and a net outflow of 37.4 tons in Europe). The SPDR Gold ETF holdings reached 1,040.9 tons (a multi-year high). The SLV Silver ETF recorded a single-day increase of 253.9 tons (the largest surge in over a month). COMEX gold inventories decreased by 2.8 million ounces, while silver inventories dropped by 41.94 million ounces. Domestic silver inventories hit a 10-year low, and China’s unrefined silver exports in October reached 654 tons (the highest since June 2007). The Ministry of Commerce has intensified silver export controls.
2. The Fed’s Rate Cut Expectations Reverse: The U.S. government shutdown has led to missing economic data, and structural economic imbalances have caused divisions among Fed officials. However, key officials like New York Fed President William C. Dudley have expressed support for rate cuts, with the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December rising to 80%. Currently, three hawkish officials oppose the cut, while San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly supports it, potentially signaling Powell’s stance.
Post-Market Forecast for Precious Metals
From the end of 2025 to 2026, the precious metal market will be in a triple positive cycle of “macro easing+industrial dividends+geopolitical catalysis”, with strong short-term fluctuations and a continuation of the medium-term bull market. The gold price center will move upward, and silver will have better elasticity (expected to increase by more than 30% in 2026). Despite short-term risks such as unexpected US economic data and geopolitical easing, in the medium to long term, the three core logics of declining real interest rates, weakened US dollar credit, and explosive industrial demand remain unchanged. Precious metals remain one of the optimal assets for “crossing economic cycles”.
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