It has been learned that recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) officially released World Energy Outlook 2018 (hereinafter referred to as “Outlook”) in Beijing. The report looks forward to the global energy development prospects by 2040, and gives high affirmation to the development of new energy in China.
At the Outlook conference, Laura Koch, chief energy model officer of the International Energy Agency, said: For economies that rely more on light industry, services and digital technology, electricity is increasingly becoming the preferred “fuel”. By 2040, electricity demand will increase by 90% compared with the current demand, which is nearly twice the current demand for electricity in the United States; nearly half of all cars in the world will be electric vehicles, and the proportion of electricity in the final energy consumption will increase to nearly one third.
Ms. Laura Koch also said that at present, China has become a global leader in carbon emission reduction, leading the world in the development of wind power, photovoltaic, electric vehicles and emerging low-carbon technologies, but its core still needs to explore how to further accelerate the pace of China’s low-carbon development on the basis of affordable economy and achieve the popularization and application of low-carbon technologies. At the same time, China also needs to focus on how to further enhance the flexibility of the power system in order to further achieve large-scale access to renewable energy.
Prospect points out that by 2040, 20% of the increase in global electricity demand will come from China’s motor demand. This forecast is also in line with the actual situation of electric vehicle manufacturing and market worldwide. China is already the leader of the electric vehicle industry. In the future, China’s leading edge will continue to be maintained.
Prospect shows that with the increasing competitiveness of solar photovoltaic, its installed capacity will exceed wind power by 2025, hydropower by 2030 and coal power by 2040. The proportion of renewable energy generation will increase from 25% to 40%. China’s nuclear power output will surpass that of the United States and the European Union by 2030. The promotion of global carbon emission reduction depends on China’s contribution.
While highlighting new energy sources, Prospect also analyses the future development trend of global oil and gas: car oil consumption will peak in the next five years or so; however, petrochemical, truck, aircraft and shipping industries will still make oil demand rise; by 2025, the proportion of the United States in the growth of global oil and gas production will reach more than half.
In addition, nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and a quarter of its natural gas are produced in the United States; the shale revolution will put tremendous pressure on traditional oil and gas exporters; and natural gas will surpass coal as the second largest fuel in the global energy structure. Global natural gas use will grow by 45% by 2030.
Under the trend of global energy transformation and the fourth industrial revolution, China will play an increasingly important role. Nowadays, China’s photovoltaic industry and electric vehicle industry have become national business cards, and more new energy industries are developing rapidly. China is also a firm supporter of the Paris Accord and will contribute to and set an example for the global carbon reduction.