In 2018, the abolition of chemical fertilizer export tariffs, the promulgation of a series of fertilizer standards, the promulgation of soil environmental protection law, the bankruptcy and reorganization of a number of large fertilizer enterprises, and the acceleration of industry integration all set the stage for the trend of 2019.
There is no doubt that the fertilizer industry will become more orderly, efficient, professional and environmentally friendly in the future. However, what specific policies are most likely to land and what changes will take place in the existing industry layout? Following are the ten predictions of the agrochemical industry. Welcome the broad masses of people in the industry to brainstorm and make a good start with confidence in the New Year.
Prediction 1: Fertilizer packaging label will change the trace elements no longer invisible
Prediction Reason: Due to industry standards, the trace elements in compound fertilizers (compound fertilizers) can not be marked on packaging containers and quality certificates. With the popularization of medium and trace elements in agricultural production, enterprises call for the lifting of restrictions. In 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments completed the revised submission of “Contents and Requirements of Fertilizer Labeling”. The revised version of “Contents and Requirements of Fertilizer Labeling” lifted the restrictions on the identification of medium and trace elements, but the promulgation time has not yet been determined.
The industry standard of “Fertilizer Marking Contents and Requirements” clearly stipulates that if compound fertilizers (compound fertilizers) are added with medium and trace elements, they shall not be marked on packaging containers and quality certificates; and that medium-element fertilizers shall be separately marked with the sum of the nutrient contents of each medium element and the nutrient contents of the medium element, and the single medium element with the content less than 2% shall not be marked.
In recent years, more and more fertilizer enterprises and growers have realized the importance of medium and trace elements in agricultural production, but the addition of medium and trace elements in compound fertilizers by fertilizer enterprises can not be marked, and the content of medium elements less than 2% in fertilizers can not be marked. In recent years, enterprises have appealed for the lifting of restrictions. After the final examination and approval of the revised version of “Contents and Requirements of Fertilizer Labels” is passed, the State Council will approve the issue or authorize it to be issued, and the time for its introduction has not yet been determined. Will it be launched in 2019? Let’s wait and see!
Prediction 2: Biostimulin China Standard is on the agenda
Predictive Reasons: Due to the lack of industry standards, the vague concept of biostimulant and the absence of classification standards, it can not reflect the special functions and practical effects, which makes product registration difficult and difficult to promote in the market.
In recent years, biostimulant has developed rapidly at home and abroad, but in the promotion, it is facing such prominent problems as confusion of concepts, small scattered industries, more Li ghosts than Li Kui, bad coins to expel good coins, more concept speculation than product innovation, lack of scientific use technology, deification of its function and role, which seriously affects the healthy development of biostimulant market.
At present, the European Union has defined biostimulant as a substance containing certain components and microorganisms that stimulate the natural processes of plants when applied to plants or roots, including enhancing/facilitating nutrient uptake, nutritional efficacy, abiotic stress resistance and crop quality, independent of nutrient components, and has issued industry standards. At present, China is speeding up the process of formulating industry standards for biostimulants. In April 2018, Stanley convened an intra-industry meeting. Through in-depth analysis of the European standards for biostimulants, the purpose is to focus on biostimulants in the industry. In May, Southern Rural Daily sponsored a conference on biostimulants to focus on industry hotspots again. The National Committee for Standardization of Fertilizers and Soil Conditioners proposed that biostimulants It is defined as a substance that promotes plant growth and improves stress response and crop quality, and promotes the landing of the standard.
Data show that China has issued national standards for biostimulants, including GB/T 33804-2017, GB/T 34765-2017, determination of fulvic acid content from mineral sources, GB/T 35112-2017 agricultural humic acid and raw material products of fulvic acid, etc. The published industrial standards include HG/T 3278-2011 agricultural humic acid sodium, HG/T 5045-2016 humic acid urea, HG/T 5046-2016 humic acid urea, etc. Phytic acid compound fertilizer, HG/T 5050-2016 alginic acid fertilizer, etc.
However, as far as the existing relevant standards are concerned, some components, mechanisms and metabolites can not be measured, and the lack of registration certificates for biostimulant products makes it difficult to promote. It is urgent for biostimulant industry standards to come out to promote better and healthier development of the industry. In 2019, the Chinese standard for biostimulants will be put on the agenda.
Forecast 3: Potassium hypertrophy contract in 2019 will exceed $300 per ton?
Reason for Prediction: This prediction is not what farmers expect. Potassium fertilizer is rising sharply all over the world. It is not easy for China to get the price of $290 per ton CFR. It is speculated that in the current trend, potash fertilizer will exceed $300 per ton in 2019.
After nine months of negotiation, the joint negotiating group of Chinese potash fertilizer finally reached an agreement with BPC (Belarus Potassium Fertilizer Company) on the contract for the import of potash fertilizer by sea for 2018/2019. The contract price is US$CFR290 (ton price, the same below). Although the price is 60 dollars higher than the contract price in 2017, it is still significantly lower than the increase in South America and other places.
Although the final price of the negotiation has increased by 60 US dollars compared with last year, the price of 290 US dollars/ton CFR is still a low price area, which is in line with the current international market situation. With the increase of US$370/ton CFR in Europe, US$310-320/ton CFR in Southeast Asia and the increase of demand for potash fertilizer in the international market, while the demand of domestic market is decreasing, some regional prices may continue to rise slightly after the release of demand. It is possible that the potassium hypertrophy contract will exceed US$300/ton in 2019.
Forecast 4: Organic fertilizer industry standards are expected to improve
Predictive Reasons: The current standard of organic fertilizer was formulated in 2012, while the current plan of organic fertilizer substitution for chemical fertilizer was formally put forward in 2017. There is a big time lag between the standard and policy, and it is difficult to meet the development needs of the industry. Farmers have a vague understanding of the concept of organic fertilizer, and some enterprises speculate skillfully, cut corners, and even use isoflavones as organic pellets from soybean industrial processing wastes. Fertilizer and organic fertilizer market urgently need to be restrained by upgrading industry standards.
The starting point of formulating standard technical parameters of organic fertilizers is to maximize the use of various organic solid wastes and increase soil organic matter. However, due to the low attention paid to organic fertilizers and insufficient market recognition at that time, most organic fertilizer enterprises presented small and scattered operating conditions, and production technology, production technology and good production environment were difficult to guarantee.
At present, some special industries, such as tobacco, have begun to formulate local standards on the basis of the current organic fertilizer standards, further refine the organic fertilizer standards in terms of organic fertilizer production technology and environmental requirements, the use of special maturing bacteria, the use of aerobic fermentation instead of anaerobic fermentation, and are actively applying for industry standards. Organic fertilizer industry urgently needs the improvement of industry standards to sort out the industry and eliminate backward production capacity. The author believes that the national standard of organic fertilizer in 2019 will be greatly possible to upgrade. The upgrade rules may be embodied in the direction of organic matter content, whether to specify organic matter as active organic matter, organic fertilizer production technology and environmental requirements.
Forecast 5: Industry Integration and Speeding up Chemical Fertilizer Industry Concentration
Predictive Reasons: Pressure of environmental protection prompts large-scale shutdown and rectification of fertilizer enterprises in China. Pressure of operation forces many fertilizer enterprises to go bankrupt and restructure. The reshuffle of fertilizer industry will speed up again, and fertilizer production will be more concentrated in 2019.
Under the pressure of environmental protection, backward production capacity has been eliminated and enterprise product line has been upgraded and speeded up. In August 2018 alone, 620 converted chemical enterprises were shut down in Shandong Province, 2614 of which accounted for 42.5% of the total chemical enterprises in the province. The Guangdong Environmental Protection Department issued a document calling for the special action of “scattered and dirty” enterprises and the comprehensive renovation of clusters. Only 4824 “scattered and dirty” enterprises have been eliminated and renovated in Dongguan City.
Compound fertilizer industry has entered the competitive stage of comprehensive strength such as quality, brand, capital, technology and service, and the industry integration is on the way. The bankruptcy tide of backward and poorly managed enterprises has further intensified, and large enterprises have suffered losses to varying degrees. Yankuang Lunan Chemical Fertilizer Plant, a subsidiary of the World 500 Fortified Fertilizer Enterprise, was declared bankrupt due to the accumulation of 3.7 billion yuan; Jiangxi, a chemical subsidiary of six countries, applied for bankruptcy restructuring; Sinochem International acquired Yangnong Group for nearly 6.1 billion yuan; and Inner Mongolia Ordos United Chemical Company, a subsidiary of Hubei Yihua, was forced to shut down due to the limited supply of natural gas in winter.
Taking nitrogen fertilizer as an example, China’s nitrogen fertilizer production enterprises reached a peak of more than 200, with a capacity of more than 6 million tons. Nowadays, nitrogen fertilizer production enterprises have been reduced to more than 60, with a capacity of more than 50 million tons. The development of nitrogen fertilizer industry tends to concentrate. In addition, some nitrogenous fertilizer producers are involved in the field of compound fertilizer and new fertilizers to make their products more competitive. For example, Xinlian, Henan Province, not only has the world-class coal-based urea production line, the largest urea production line in China, but also blossoms on compound fertilizer, humic acid-containing fertilizer, water-soluble fertilizer and other high-efficiency fertilizers, thus further enhancing their comprehensive competitiveness.
Prediction 6: Potassium Fertilizer Export Increases Greatly and Chemical Fertilizer Export Decline Overall
Predictive Reasons: The “Tentative Tax Rate for Import and Export in 2019″ proposed that on January 1 this year, zero export tariffs should be imposed on chemical fertilizers and other commodities. The Zero Tariff Scheme will have a greater impact on the export of potassium fertilizer, compound fertilizer and phosphate ore. In particular, domestic processed potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will have a greater price advantage in the international market. This will certainly stimulate the export of potassium fertilizer to increase, and the export of chemical fertilizer will stop declining as a whole.
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In recent years, domestic potassium fertilizer production and processing technology has improved, processing potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate, granular potassium fertilizer and other industries have developed rapidly. With the abolishment of export tariffs on potassium fertilizers (including potassium fertilizers), the export of potassium chloride (fertilizer grade) and potassium sulfate can save 600 yuan/ton. Domestic potassium sulfate will have a stronger price competitiveness in the world. The start-up rate of processed potassium sulfate may be increased, and the price of domestic potassium chloride will rise. Thus, the export volume of potassium fertilizer will continue to grow.
According to Chinese Customs data, from January to November 2018, China exported 22.76 million tons of fertilizers, 25.48 million tons of fertilizers in 2017 and 28.09 million tons of fertilizers in 2016, a decrease of 21.5% compared with 2015. In recent years, the total export volume of chemical fertilizer has been declining year by year. The export volume of compound fertilizer is affected by the supply and demand of the international fertilizer market. Consumers pay more attention to the brand while paying attention to the price. Therefore, the export volume of compound fertilizer still needs time to test. Although zero export tariff has improved the market competitiveness of chemical fertilizer export to a certain extent, it is difficult to substantially increase the export volume in the short term. At present, there is still a big gap in the fertilizer market in Africa, Southeast Asia and the countries along the belt. With the promotion of the zero tariff policy, the output of potash fertilizer will increase significantly in 2019, and the export of chemical fertilizer will also be completely weakened.
Forecast 7: Southeast Asian market will become a new blue sea for domestic fertilizer enterprises
Predictive Reason: The demand for fertilizer in Southeast Asian countries is increasing. Our country’s top growers have gone abroad to develop planting industry in Southeast Asia. With the advantage of export price brought by zero tariff, Southeast Asian market will undoubtedly become a new blue sea for domestic fertilizer enterprises to compete. More than ten enterprises, such as Kim Jong-tak, Ladome and Ruifeng, have begun to lay out the Southeast Asian market, and many well-known fertilizer enterprises have put the development of Southeast Asian market on the agenda.
A large number of domestic planting experts went to Southeast Asia to develop planting, which led to the growth of demand for domestic fertilizer in foreign planting industry. India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and other countries are increasingly demanding fertilizers. Take Thailand as an example, there is about 6 million tons of fertilizer demand per year; Vietnam needs to import 1.5 million to 1.8 million tons of urea, 700,000 tons of diammonium phosphate and 200,000 tons of compound fertilizer per year; and the potential demand of fertilizer in the Philippines is nearly 4.7 million tons.
Although most of the countries in Southeast Asia are agricultural countries, their fertilizer industry starts late and their production enterprises lack technology. Under the influence of the “one belt and one road” national strategy and the establishment of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area, China’s fertilizer products have an advantage over Southeast Asia. At present, there are more and more Chinese fertilizer products in the whole Southeast Asian market. China’s export to the Philippines increased slightly from January to July, and the export of fertilizer to Vietnam more than doubled from January to September. The release of zero tariff on chemical fertilizer export will further benefit domestic fertilizer enterprises to go abroad.
At present, more than ten domestic enterprises are stepping up their efforts to enter the Southeast Asian market. For example, Ladome’s construction of an annual production base of 600,000 tons of eco-green compound fertilizer in Zhanjiang is a major initiative to open up the fertilizer market in Southeast Asia; Ruifeng Ecology has already entered the fertilizer market in Malaysia and Thailand, and has cooperated with the Ministry of Agriculture of Vietnam to introduce new high-end functional fertilizers and agrochemical services to Vietnam; Kim Jong-Dae has established new high-end functional fertilizers and agrochemical services in Vietnam Branches in India, Thailand and Malaysia are also being laid out.
Prediction 8: Traditional single e-commerce platform gradually transforms into integrated service providers
Predictive Reason: The continuous increase of professional farmers has created a huge agricultural technology service market. The traditional single e-commerce which only provides agricultural commodity sales will increasingly fail to meet the needs of growers. The only way for traditional agricultural e-commerce to survive in 2019 is to take a step from “products” to “technical services”.
The data show that at present, there are over 4 million large farmers with cultivation area over 50 mu, 30 million medium-sized farmers with cultivation area of 10-50 mu, and about 2 million cooperatives and large farm bases. It can be said that professional farmers have become the main force of cultivation in China. Unlike the traditional small-scale peasant economy, these large farmers have not only stayed in the demand for agricultural assets, but also tend to diversify and integrate the demand for agricultural technology services. The traditional single e-commerce, which only provides agricultural commodities for sale, can no longer meet the needs of farmers. The data show that China’s agricultural technology service market has reached a scale of 100 billion, but also continues to grow, and this market trend will inevitably promote the transformation of traditional agricultural e-commerce platform with online purchase and sale of agricultural assets as a single business to integrated service-oriented e-commerce.
At first, the emergence of agricultural e-commerce is more to cater to the needs of the upgrading of agricultural assets industry channels. Now, agricultural e-commerce is more from the upgrading of channels to the double upgrading of products and services. For example, the traditional e-commerce based on single-product business is like opening a pharmacy. Farmers need to prescribe whatever medicine they need. What they need now is a doctor in the field. Farmers need you to come to visit them, diagnose all kinds of problems in planting, and prescribe them. After the prescription has been approved by farmers, they can provide a complete set of products and services for farmers. People are demanding more and more services.
Taking the successful harvest transformation as an example, starting in 2015, we will gradually expand the field of agricultural technology services, establish a series of online and offline agro-technology service sections for different regions and different crop needs, and carry out agricultural technology activities in the countryside. The slogan of “product package, package service and service standardization” was put forward, and the platform positioning of “being the planting housekeeper around farmers” was put forward.
In addition to service-oriented e-commerce, the model of agricultural e-commerce providing paid agricultural knowledge services has also emerged. The Agricultural Knowledge Payment Platform “Learning from Agriculture Everyday” has completed three rounds of financing in less than a year, providing agricultural knowledge services covering crop knowledge, agrotechnical extension, brand building, product marketing and agro-creation knowledge.
In addition to the existing pre-production and mid-production stages of agricultural e-commerce service mode, the joint financial unit will provide supply chain financial services for distributors, growers, etc. The use of precision agricultural technology to provide agricultural informationization, O2 O website services, as well as to provide farmers with planting industry solution planning and other aspects of service mode will also become the transformation of agricultural e-commerce to integrated service e-commerce. Direction and tuyere. In a word, agricultural comprehensive service-oriented e-commerce has become the mainstream trend of agricultural e-commerce. In 2019, agricultural e-commerce must constantly deepen the transformation and innovation of agricultural technology services.
Prediction 9: Traditional agricultural retail stores are further squeezed by the proportion of direct sales of manufacturers is getting higher and higher
Predictive Reasons: Big farmers sprang up like bamboo shoots after a rainstorm. Operational pressure will prompt manufacturers to directly inoculate big farmers. Pressure of planting cost will also prompt big farmers to skip the circulation link and seek opportunities to cooperate with manufacturers. Channel providers are either transformed into technology export and service-oriented companies, or they will face the risk of elimination.
In recent years, the national land transfer market has shown a leap-forward growth, and the proportion of large farmers in the flow of agricultural market has become increasingly large. According to the data from the Land Transfer Market Report published by the Land Transfer Network in April 2018, about 55% of the rural collective land transferred in the past three years has been transferred to large farmers of agricultural cultivation and breeding, 32% to agricultural cooperatives and enterprises, and 13% of the land management rights have been obtained by other operators.
With the rising price of upstream means of production, the pressure of rising prices of agricultural products will encourage large agricultural households and cooperatives to skip the traditional distribution link of agricultural retailers and directly seek direct marketing from agricultural producers to purchase agricultural assets. Increasingly pressing demand for products and services has also spawned a number of manufacturers and platforms specially serving large farmers throughout the country. Agricultural staging is one of them.
Through strategic cooperation with famous fertilizer manufacturers such as Jin Zhengda, Sirte and Hongsifang in Anhui Province, Agricultural Phase-by-Phase provides advance selling services for large-scale farmers, brings into play the advantages of reducing costs and improving benefits brought about by large-scale production of means of production orders, and reduces the traditional agricultural purchase and marketing mode’s economic benefits to farmers in terms of price, quality, logistics, warehousing, capital and so on. Campaign pressure and risk.
In addition, various forms of agricultural input ordering meetings have been held in succession throughout the country. Through direct docking and negotiation between new agricultural operators, mainly planters and cooperatives, and agricultural input manufacturers, individualized customization and direct supply and direct marketing of their products and services have been realized. This kind of ordering will be welcomed by many new agricultural operators and well-known agricultural producers. Welcome. Taking the Heilongjiang New Type Agricultural Operating Agents Agricultural Input Exposition held in October last year as an example, the order meeting attracted more than 2,000 new type agricultural operators from all over the country to participate in the conference, with the intention of signing contracts or exceeding 400 million yuan.
In the agricultural market in 2019, the operating profit and market share of traditional agricultural retailers will be further squeezed, and the proportion of direct sales of manufacturers will be higher and higher. The deepening implementation of the Pesticide Management Regulations will also make more and more family-style (husband and wife-type) agricultural retailers face closure. The transformation of traditional agricultural retailers will become the major trend and mainstream proposition of the times. Under such circumstances, are you still selling on credit?
Prediction 10: Microbial fertilizers will be the hot category in 2019
Forecast reason: In 2018, the number of registration certificates for microbial fertilizers increased by 3508, and it is expected to exceed 10,000 in 2019, showing blowout growth. By the end of October last year, China had 2,050 microbial fertilizer enterprises with a capacity of 30 million tons, accounting for 70% of the annual output of new fertilizers and a output value of 40 billion yuan. The market competition situation of microbial fertilizer will be white-hot, and microbial fertilizer products will become the hottest explosive products in the fertilizer market in 2019.
Compared with traditional fertilizers, microbial fertilizers have advantages in protecting ecology, utilizing agricultural waste resources, maintaining soil health, improving fertilizer utilization efficiency and quality of agricultural products. The data show that the number of registration certificates for microbial fertilizers (including bio-organic fertilizers, microbial agents and compound microbial fertilizers) increased from 5 685 in 2017 to 3 308 to 9 193 in 2018. Microbial fertilizer has become the most productive and widely used variety of new fertilizers in China.
On the other hand, the long-term unreasonable use of chemical fertilizers has led to a series of soil degradation problems. According to the Blue Book of Cities: China’s Urban Development Report NO.11 published in September last year, soil pollution in some areas of China is serious. The contaminated area of cultivated land soil reaches 15,000 mu, and the rate of over-standard points reaches 19.4%. The use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in China is at a high level in the world. Serious soil pollution problems cause great hidden dangers to food safety, land security and ecological security. The implementation of the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Soil Pollution is bound to have a far-reaching impact on the prevention and control of soil pollution and soil remediation in China.
Soil ecological repair has a long way to go. Taking the initiative of the national “one belt and one way” initiative and revitalizing the rural strategy, in 2018, the southern rural newspaper joined the well-known agro chemical enterprises at home and abroad, and launched the “sailing around the road to revitalize thousand villages, 2018 China’s soil ecological restoration and agricultural technology promotion”, which trained 20 thousand farmers and reached 500 thousand people online. In 2019, the campaign will continue to reach 20 crop-producing areas in 11 provinces and municipalities.
The huge demand for pollution control means huge market space. Some industry authorities have said that China needs to develop and use bio-fertilizers more than any other country, and the application of microbial fertilizers in soil will be an important development direction of soil ecological remediation. With the introduction of environmental protection high-pressure policy and the further expansion of soil remediation market, more capital will be invested in the field of microbial fertilizer.