I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, this week (9.9-9.12) the domestic price of cis-butadiene rubber was basically stable. The price was maintained at 11325 yuan/ton, up or down by 0%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price stability: this week (9.9-9.12) domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical factory ex-factory price stability, as of September 12, CNPC Northeast Sales Company cis-butadiene rubber price stability, the current Daqing Shuntine ex-warehouse pricing 11,100 yuan/ton, Jinzhou Shuntine 11,100 yuan/ton; CNPC Northwest Sales Company CIS of cis-butadiene rubber price stability: Dushan Zishun Dingku raised its price at 11 150 yuan/ton, of which 50 yuan/ton is storage fee; Sinopec North China Sales Company increased its price of cis-butadiene rubber at 11,100 yuan/ton in Qilu and 11,120 yuan/ton in Yanshan and 11,120 yuan/ton in North China.

Rubber imports declined in August: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 538,000 tons of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August, a 2.71% decrease in the ring-to-ring ratio and an 11.8% decrease in the year-to-year ratio. Imports from January to August were 4.166 million tons, down 7.7% from 4.514 million tons in the same period last year.

Raw material prices remained high: raw material butadiene prices rose slightly this week to maintain a high price, the cost of cis-butadiene rubber support. Butadiene rose slightly by 0.31% at the beginning of the week and 10390 yuan per ton at the end of the week, according to the business association.

Reduction of cis-butadiene supply: This week, the supply of cis-butadiene rubber continued to decrease, and the cis-butadiene rubber installations such as Lande, Dushanzi, Qixiang and Chuanhua in Xinjiang stopped. As a whole, the inventory of cis-butadiene rubber manufacturer continues to decrease, which is beneficial to the price of cis-butadiene rubber.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that although the price of butadiene, the upstream raw material, is high, international crude oil is facing adjustment, which has a negative effect in terms of cost. Later look at the cis-butadiene rubber market or adjustment risk.

Ethylene glycol prices have been oscillating since early August. The main futures prices have risen from the initial low of 4275 to around 4700, with a rebound of nearly 10%. Spot prices have broken through the front line of 4800, showing a stage-by-stage strong trend. However, the short-term strong deduction is more difficult for the medium and long-term strong. Pressure has begun to appear around 4800, and the momentum for sustained upward movement is temporarily insufficient.

De-inventory Supports Short-term Price Recovery

On the one hand, downstream demand is good, and the peak season trend of “gold, nine silver and ten ten silver” gradually appears, and the consumption of raw materials has increased. As far as the weaving process is concerned, the low start-up in the second quarter slowed down the demand for raw materials. After August, the weaving load improved significantly. The loom start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the main producing area, rose to about 76% in early September. At the same time, the stock days of grey fabrics in weaving enterprises also showed a downward trend. The production and marketing of textile city and polyester products also warmed up in August. Taking filament as an example, the average production and marketing rate of filament in August was around 90%, and in early September it rose to about 114%. The average daily sales of Textile City long-fibre fabrics are over 9 million meters, which is higher than the average level of 7 million meters per day in August. Within the week, the stock days of sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area were 39.5 days, and the volume of light textile city market was in seasonal recovery.

With the improvement of terminal demand and the digestion of polyester stocks in June-July, the comprehensive stocks of polyester filament and polyester staple fibers are at the lowest level in the year, about 8.1 days. All of these lay a good foundation for increasing the load of polyester. The unit load of polyester links began to rise in August. By early September, it had risen to a high near 92%, higher than the same period in the previous two years. At the same time, with the production of new Fengming and Tongkun plants in August, the production capacity of polyester increased to 56.81 million tons, compared with 51.96 million tons in the same period last year. As a result, the output of polyester increased in August due to the high capacity base and start-up rate, and the demand for raw material ethylene glycol also increased.

On the other hand, the load of ethylene glycol coal production and the decline of imports ease the supply pressure in its stage. From the perspective of domestic supply, the monthly output of domestic ethylene glycol increased at an average rate of about 30% from January to June this year, while the imports in the same period were basically the same as last year, with limited shrinkage and excessive overall supply over demand, which led to the continuous accumulation of ethylene glycol. However, the high inventory of ethylene glycol has depressed its price. Under the constant squeeze of profits in the ethylene glycol industry, the maintenance and parking of domestic ethylene glycol enterprises have become frequent and lasting. Especially in the coal-based ethylene glycol industry, its load began to drop rapidly after reaching a high of 89% in April, and dropped to a low of about 43% in August. During the period, the load of high quality glycol also decreased synchronously, but the range was less than that of coal. The load of methanol production is relatively stable, but the supply of methanol production is limited and has little effect. Affected by this, the overall domestic production of ethylene glycol decreased significantly from July to August. In August, the output data even decreased by 6.9% compared with the same period last year. Domestic output increased from high growth to negative growth.

On the import side, the import of ethylene glycol fell sharply in June, and the import volume fell 14.8% in the same month compared with the same period last year. Although the import volume rose annually in July, it still fell by 2.9% compared with the same period last year. The decline in imports is reflected in the decline in the arrival of ethylene glycol. And the start of downstream peak season demand, led to the increase of ethylene glycol port shipments. As a result, high ethylene glycol inventory gradually entered the depot, and depot accelerated after July. As of early September, ethylene glycol port inventory fell to 877,000 tons, although still higher than the same period last year, but the depot trend is expected to continue before the end of the downstream peak season.

Therefore, in the peak season, the domestic ethylene glycol continued to depot more likely, the price of superimposed crude oil rebounded to the formation of a more multi-tone chemical products, ethylene glycol market continued more trend.

According to today’s oil price report on September 9, since OPEC began restricting oil production, Iraq, the second largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia, has exceeded the production cap almost every month for the past two and a half years. But now Iraq says it is ready to cut production.

Thamer Ghadhban, Iraq’s oil minister, said Iraq was now ready to reduce crude oil production next month. In a statement, the official said: “We are committed to reaching a cut-off agreement.” Ghadhban’s statement runs counter to the evidence that Iraq has failed to meet its production reduction obligations since the signing of the first agreement.

For Iraq, the OPEC+agreement coincides with an improvement in the country’s security situation and a steady increase in oil production.

Although Baghdad claims that it needs higher oil production to generate more oil revenue (90% of government revenue) to rebuild a country devastated by decades of war, the second largest oil producer in OPEC has put a different spoke in the cartel wheel of OPEC, which he hopes to find elsewhere. Some member states have abided by the agreement to cut oil production.

Iraq’s failure to fully comply with the agreement is also one of the reasons for tensions within OPEC, and Tehran believes that its competitors within OPEC have stolen its market share.

The latest monthly survey released by S&P Global Plats last week showed that Iraq’s oil production hit a record high in August, with an estimated 4.88 million barrels per day of oil injected into the country.

The Pratz survey showed that Iraq’s daily production in August increased by 100,000 barrels compared with July, exceeding Iraq’s daily production quota of 4.51 million barrels last month, reaching 370,000 barrels.

The Reuters survey also found that Iraq increased production in August. Both Reuters and Pratz surveys estimated that OPEC increased oil production for the first time in August, despite OPEC’s constant calls for “full compliance” and “market stability”. Iraq and Nigeria were among the biggest contributors to OPEC’s August output increase, according to the survey.

OPEC’s official production data for August will be released on September 11, but previous July’s monthly report on the oil market showed that Iraq’s output grew the most, increasing 32,000 barrels a day in July to 4.753 million barrels a day, while Saudi Arabia’s output in July was 134,000 Rand a day by Ano, below OPEC’s quota. More than half a million barrels of oil.

According to Bloomberg’s ship tracking data, OPEC also increased oil exports in August, and Iraqi oil ministry data showed that Iraq’s crude oil exports increased from 3.566 million barrels a day in July to 3.633 million barrels a day last month.

Dave, global head of commodity pricing at S&P Global Platts? Dave Ernsberger told CNBC last week: “The recent increase in Iraqi oil production has turned the problem that had been a headache for OPEC into a complete migraine.”

These increases in Iraq have again attracted the attention of Saudi Arabia, a major OPEC member. Since the OPEC + Alliance began to reduce production in January 2017, OPEC has repeatedly warned members of the violation of the agreement about the violation of the cut.

Not long ago, Iraqi Oil Minister Tamergah Ban said Sunday that Iraq would begin to cut oil production in October and would stick to OPEC’s production reduction plan. He said that in the past few months, Iraqi oil production has exceeded its quota due to increased domestic demand in the summer, refineries will enter a maintenance period in October, and domestic demand will decline.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA spot market prices in China continued to fall slightly today (September 11), down 0.61% from the previous trading day and 43.52% from the same period last year. PTA main futures (2001) closed at 522 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, or 2.10% from the previous trading day.

Enterprise Name, Plant Capacity (10,000 tons/year) Recent Plant Change
Yizheng Chemical Fiber 35 Parking overhaul from August 1 to September 10 has been restarted
Fuhua Chemical Industry & Trade 450 Parking overhaul from July 9 to August 5, load increased from 70% to 90%.
Huabin Petrochemical 140 Plant is scheduled to stop shortly next week for some reason
Hengli Dalian 220 plans to be overhauled for 15 days in mid-September
Jialong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Parking overhaul on Aug. 2, restart pending
With the restart of 350,000 tons PTA equipment in Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. on the 10th, the load of the equipment rose to a high of 97%. The worries on the supply side warmed up, and the purchasing atmosphere remained poor. Traders dominated, and sporadic factories followed up.

In the raw material market, Asian PXCFR China closed at $791 per ton on the 10th day, up 6 dollars per ton from the previous trading day. Affected by the rising external price, the domestic PX price was consolidated near 6,600 yuan per ton. The PX plant of Hainan Petrochemical Company is scheduled to start in late September; the PX plant of Hengyi Brunei Company is scheduled to start in the third quarter; and the PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is scheduled to start in the fourth quarter.

Downstream polyester start-up load temporarily stabilized at about 90%, cautious wait-and-see mood did not decrease, and polyester quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was temporarily stable. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7700-8050 yuan/ton, DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 9200-9350 yuan/ton, FDY (150D/96F) is 7700-8000 yuan/ton. Local orders at the end of the line have rebounded. The overall starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 80%. However, due to the macroeconomic pressure at home and abroad, the demand of textile and garment industry will be significantly weaker than in previous years.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that PTA plant starts to improve again, and the supply side is under pressure. Cost-side drive is not strong, downstream terminal orders follow-up is weak, PTA is expected to continue to explore in the short term.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data of business associations, the market of epichlorohydrin has been on the rise recently. Last Wednesday (Sept. 4) the average price of enterprises was 1 2166.67 yuan per ton, and on Sept. 10 the average price of enterprises was 12 666.67 yuan per ton. Epichlorohydrin rose by 4.11% in seven days.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Recently, the market of epichlorohydrin has been on the rise. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin on the 4th was about 12,000-12,500 yuan/ton. There was no pressure on the manufacturers to deliver goods. The mood of pull-up remained unchanged. The atmosphere of caution and wait-and-see in downstream and terminal became more serious. When the demand for replenishment was low, the volume was limited. The price of epichlorohydrin rose on the 6th, with an average price of 12,500 yuan per ton. The downstream was cautious about high-priced raw materials, with insufficient purchasing intentions and weak trading atmosphere. The average price of epichlorohydrin was 12333.33 yuan/ton on the 9th day. Some manufacturers closed the market without quotation. Traders’foreign quotations mostly followed the manufacturers’ quotations. Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are approaching, downstream inventory expectations, the willingness of the holders to buy at low prices has decreased, confidence in the future has increased, 10 mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin in 13,000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Up-stream propylene market in Shandong Province has occasionally made up for the decline as of the 10th. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province increased by 50-100 yuan/ton on September 1, and increased by about 50-100 yuan/ton on September 2, while only a few enterprises increased on September 3-5, remained stable on June 8, slightly declined by about 50 yuan/ton on September 9, and remained stable on September 10, except for individual enterprises. At present, the market turnover is about 7600-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7600 yuan/ton. 。 Up to 10 days, downstream epoxy resin with rising raw materials, the focus of discussion increased.

3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of business association epichlorohydrin think that the upstream propylene market slightly declined and had little impact on epichlorohydrin. The price of downstream epoxy resin is rising, which is good for epichlorohydrin. With the approaching of the two sections, the downstream factories are expected to stock up periodically, but there is still some resistance to high-priced raw materials. Actual procurement is cautious. However, under the strong support of tight prices, only passive follow-up can be achieved. It is expected that the short-term epichlorohydrin market will be mainly higher.

On September 10, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 104.39, which was the same as yesterday. It was 11.85% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 34.92% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market price was temporarily stable on the 10th, domestic ammonium nitrate plant operation was stable, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with environmental protection control, the downstream domestic civil explosion industry shut down more, domestic ammonium nitrate factory start-up limited, on-site price maintained low. Bit level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi was 2000-2100 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate went away. The situation is temporary.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in the domestic market has been weak and shocked. The price quoted by the mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, and the quotation is stable. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan per ton, the quotation maintained a low level. Shandong manufacturers quote 1600 yuan/ton, the price is stable. Nitric acid shipment situation is still poor, the low price trend of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate remains low; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream maintains a low level, and the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 333.33 yuan/ton, and the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower, in addition, the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is affected. Most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply has increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by the manufacturers in North China is maintained at around 2900-3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by the manufacturers in Northwest China is between 2500-2600 yuan/ton and the price of liquid ammonia is low. The downstream ammonium nitrate Market has a negative impact. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.

The Rare Earth Index (REI) was 380 points on September 10, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.00% from its cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 40.22% from its lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 413,500 yuan/ton, 2325,000 yuan/ton and 695,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 327,500 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 193,000 yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 382,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 329,500 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 413,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.93 million yuan per ton.

Recently, the price trend of rare earth on-site is temporarily stable, the domestic rare earth market is generally trading, the price of dysprosium and terbium metals and oxides remains high, the inquiry list of praseodymium and neodymium oxide on-site has increased recently, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained an upward trend. At that time, the on-site light rare earth merchants are reluctant to sell, optimistic about the future market, and recent on-site transactions. General situation. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Especially some mainstream rare earth oxides are in normal supply. The price trend of rare earth market has risen. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general and the turnover has not changed much.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has been making strict investigations. Strengthening the supervision of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The start-up of the rare earth industry is relatively low and the market is cold, which has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not decrease in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, the supply of Jiangxi rare earth industry will be reduced, but the demand of rare earth downstream will be supported in the near future. It is expected that some prices of rare earth market will continue to rise slightly.

On September 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 66.42, up 1.09 points from yesterday, down 44.71% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 37.17% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7000-7200 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6500-6700 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6700-7000 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps rising.
Recently, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has increased by 200 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride factories, on-site supply shortage, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the market of imported phthalic anhydride has risen in the port area, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is better, the stock of the port has dropped substantially, Up, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation. Recently, domestic overhaul facilities for phthalic anhydride have increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is very tight. Supported by the price of phthalic anhydride, the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP prices rose, DOP downstream demand shocked and declined, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market slightly lower, DOP market mainstream transaction price 7800-7900 yuan/ton, downstream prices have risen, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to maintain a higher trend in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA spot market prices in China fell slightly today (September 10), 0.50% lower than the previous trading day and 43.22% lower than the same period last year. PTA main futures shocks adjustment, the end of a small decline. Main futures (2001) closed at 5190 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton, or 0.42% from the previous trading day. At present, PTA plant load is at 96% high, the market is full of liquidity supply, the main buyers are traders and polyester factories.

Yizheng Chemical Fiber 350,000 tons PTA device was restarted on September 10. The device has been repaired since August 1. Huabin Petrochemical PTA plant is scheduled to shut down shortly next week for some reasons, with an annual capacity of 1.4 million tons. Hengli PTA plant announces the maintenance plan, and there are few later maintenance plans. As for the new plant, Sino-Thai Petrochemical Xinjiang’s 1.2 million tons PTA new plant is scheduled to be completed and put into operation on October 30 and commissioned on December 20.

In the raw material market, Asia’s PXCFR China closed at $785 per ton on September 9, up 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The domestic price of PX is 6 600 yuan per ton. Faced with the pressure of putting new units into operation, Hainan Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to put new PX units into commission in late September. Hengyi Brunei 1.5 million tons PX plant will enter the commissioning stage. Downstream polyester start-up load near 90%, terminal weaving just need to purchase, cautious wait-and-see mood does not decrease, Jiangsu and Zhejiang mainstream factories polyester quotation temporarily stable, promotional preferential shipment, polyester POY (150D/48F) market price range in 7700-8050 yuan/ton.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that PX, PTA new device supply boost expectations, there are some worries on the supply side, the cost support is relatively limited, and downstream demand “Jinjiu” performance is weak, PTA market is expected to be weak adjustment in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of asphalt was stable this week, and the price of asphalt was reported at 3546 yuan/ton, which was equal to the price of asphalt last week.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The international oil price in the latter half of this week has been rising day after day, but the market demand for asphalt is stable as a whole. This week, the market price of asphalt has not followed the rise of crude oil price.

Industry Chain: The Sino-US trade war continues, and crude oil is blocked from going up in the absence of a large environment. However, Russia has declared a strict cut in production, coupled with the deterioration of the situation in the United States and Iran, the market sentiment is growing. WTI crude oil futures have risen for four consecutive days, reaching $57 per barrel. Last week, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.18% and 0.86% respectively.

Asphalt market: This week, Northeast China has abundant foreign reserves, insufficient market demand, and refinery shipments are constrained. Liaohe Petrochemical Asphalt Price was sharply reduced by 250 yuan/ton. The terminal projects in Shandong and North China are still under construction, with little change in total demand. In East China, inventory continues to degrade better, but the number of new contracts is relatively small. At present, Shandong and Northeast markets have more low-price goods, and the asphalt market lacks effective project support. The overall performance of asphalt price is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business associations, believes that international crude oil is expected to rise, but overall, the support of asphalt prices is relatively small, and the price of value asphalt futures market is severely suppressed. It is expected that the price of asphalt will remain stable next week.