Price trends:

Since September, the domestic caustic soda market has rebounded, and the atmosphere of price increase is strong. So far, it has seen the largest increase this year, with an overall line of 150-300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business associations in Shandong, the price of caustic soda in Shandong is on the whole going, up to 850 yuan per ton in September, up by 20.57%.

Products: At present, caustic soda in most areas is still on the upward trend. Manufacturers stop production and limit production more, mainstream factories have overall low inventory. For business associations, 32% of ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is above 840 yuan/ton, 50% of ionic membrane caustic soda mainstream transaction price rises to 1410-1430 yuan/ton; for Jiangsu, 200 yuan/ton or so this month, 3. The mainstream transaction price of 2% ionic membrane alkali has risen to 900-950 yuan/ton, and that of 50% ionic membrane alkali has risen to 1450-1500 yuan/ton. This month, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali purchased by Weiqiao has risen by 100 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton, which has a great impact on the local area.

Up to now, the closing of the national market offers are as follows:

region   Specifications   offer    Ups and downs
32% Ionic Membrane Base 950+150 in Hebei Province
32% ionic membrane base 950 + 80 in Northeast China
32% ionic membrane base 850 + 180 in Shandong area
32% ionic membrane base 920 + 200 in Jiangsu area
32% ionic membrane base 980 + 250 in Zhejiang area
32% ionic membrane alkali 900 + 180 in Anhui area
Since September, the caustic soda market has gone up a large margin, the main reasons are as follows:

1. The National Day is approaching. There are many rumors that the chlor-alkali industry in North China is going to stop work. At present, Shandong has limited production, no stock of industrial caustic soda is not guaranteed, and more enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are shut down. After the 25th, the liquid chlorine embargo in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang and North China, as well as downstream and traders, will be imposed. In order to prevent the alkali plant from being restricted by liquid chlorine embargo, goods were taken one after another.

2. After the notification of the liquid chlorine embargo which began on September 7 in Jiangsu, the atmosphere of liquid chlorine became tense, and the Anbang load dropped to 30%. It is known that some of the liquid chlorine in Jiangsu has also been sent to Anhui and Zhejiang outside the province. The news of the liquid chlorine embargo is also one of the factors stimulating the increase in alkali prices.

3. The purchase price of Weiqiao alumina has been stable for more than five months. The manufacturers have increased retail prices on National Day to stimulate Weiqiao’s price increase, and the main factories in Shandong Province are not satisfied with the start of construction after the early typhoon. The purchase support of Weiqiao alumina and the inventory have been in a controllable level. After the increase of the purchase price of Weiqiao, the credit of the traders has been greatly boosted. Heart.

Business analysts believe that the market price of liquid alkali in North China will maintain a high level before National Day, and the market performance in East China and Henan is also relatively good, while the domestic market of liquid chlorine will mostly maintain a steady trend. 32% ionic membrane alkali in Shandong province 840-880 yuan/ton. But in October, the environmental protection inspection will be strengthened, the whole industrial chain of the manufacturer will be restricted, the downstream parts of the north and the main alumina will also face production reduction, a large number of sea alkali will arrive in the South during the National Day, low-cost sea alkali will stimulate the southern liquid alkali market, the national market after the National Day or will have a greater impact in the future. End price may not be guaranteed.

Price Trend

In September, the domestic liquefied natural gas market improved due to the northwest gas limit, and with the end of the 10-day gas limit, the price of LNG resumed its decline. The average price of domestic LNG market on the 10th day was 3030 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 19th day was 2900 yuan/ton. Within ten days, the price fell by 4.29%, 35.56% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: According to the data of business associations, as of September 19, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2950 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2850 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG Plant of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3000 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is 2300 yuan/ton, that of Qinshui New Olympics LNG is 3150 yuan/ton, that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan LNG Co., Ltd. is 2900 yuan/ton, and that of Qinghua Energy Group of Xinjiang is 2500 yuan/ton. LNG Company Limited is priced at 2900 yuan per ton. Local liquid prices have fallen to low levels.

Market analysis: In recent ten days, the domestic LNG market has continuously lowered prices. The northwest gas limit ended on September 10, and the market has resumed normal supply. Major manufacturers are preparing for the pre-festival warehouse and lowering the liquid price one after another. Under the guidance of downstream demand, in order to alleviate the pressure of shipment, liquid factories have sought a favorable price reduction. Individual factories have made great efforts to reduce the price, with partial inverted shipment phenomenon. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, transportation was blocked, and shipments from liquid factories in some areas were not smooth and prices were continuously lowered. After the holidays, the restrictions on high-speed and dangerous chemicals transportation were lifted, the demand situation was still unclear, the terminal demand was not improved, the upstream bid was difficult, and the liquid factory continued to reduce the price in order to maintain normal shipment. At present, the downstream demand is flat, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the supply exceeds demand situation is still strong, and with the rising import LNG prices, it will bring certain benefits to domestic LNG. In addition, the upstream factories are forced to reduce production costs, and the wait-and-see mentality is growing. LNG stops falling and returns to stability, and the trend is still weak.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising annually. The top three commodities were gasoline (1.24%), methanol (1.06%) and diesel (0.98%). There are seven kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are dimethyl ether (-2.95%), liquefied natural gas (-2.30%) and WTI crude oil (-1.36%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.29%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied Natural Gas analysts of business associations believe that the current market demand is inadequate. With the end of the Northwest Gas Limitation, the situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the LNG market returns to normal. In addition, near the National Day, demand in some areas is more reduced, or it may affect liquid prices. LNG prices are expected to be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of domestic chlorinated paraffins has risen continuously since September. On September 4, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4933 yuan/ton, and on September 19, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 5200 yuan/ton. The half-month price rose by 5.41%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the ex-factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in South China is 4600-5300 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in North China is 4000-5500 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in East China is about 5000 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in Central China is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton, and that of Northeast China is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product is 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The quotation for the first grade chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The northwest region chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class product ex-factory quotation is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton.

Crude oil: On September 18, WTI crude oil futures fell $1.23, or 2.07%, to $58.11 a barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell $0.95, or 1.47%, to $63.60 a barrel. China’s main SC crude oil futures contract was about 1911 yuan 473.6 yuan per barrel, down 10.5 yuan.

Industry chain: Recently, the crude oil market has risen sharply before falling, and the focus of gravity has begun to fall. The liquid wax market is short of resources, stable operation, stable shipment of manufacturers, small adjustments in the market price range. The liquid chlorine market operates at a high level, and some areas maintain high prices and the market rises. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins has slightly improved, and stocks have increased in some areas.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin business associations believe that due to the recent increase in raw material costs, the shortage of chlorinated paraffin supply, the National Day environmental protection and production restrictions, manufacturers began to actively stock up, chlorinated paraffin prices rose in stages. It is expected that chlorinated paraffin prices will fluctuate in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market has risen sharply. As of September 18, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2184 yuan/ton, which was 1.80% lower than that of the previous year and 32.25% lower than that of the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expected production of methanol-to-olefins, the methanol market has a positive delivery atmosphere, smooth shipment of mainland enterprises, and the focus of market negotiation has been continuously raised. Inventory in Northwest China is low and prices are high; trading around Bohai Sea area is optimistic and has risen sharply; Huaihai area has a positive mentality and continues to rise; shipments in central China are smooth and keep up with the increase; futures are high and volatile, and port prices are rising. At present, Shanxi, Mongolia and other upstream enterprises can ship goods temporarily, the enterprise inventory pressure is not large, the mentality performance is strong.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: The domestic formaldehyde market is strong and upward, boosted by the recent cost side, the formaldehyde industry’s offer rises, downstream purchasing is on demand, and the trading atmosphere is still acceptable, but the current raw material port market has fallen, the growth rate of the mainland has also narrowed, the cost side support has been slightly loosened, short-term domestic formaldehyde Market or high-level consolidation.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is running steadily for the time being. At present, the inventory level of most acetic acid factories is not high, and most of them are stable prices. However, the industry has a high rate of start-up, users just need to take delivery of goods, under the pressure of weak spot turnover, the mindset of the industry is negative. In addition, during the National Day holiday, highway transportation is limited, and some factories are actively delivering goods to reduce inventory. The mindset of the operators is weak, and the short-term market is expected to be weak.

Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether market prices continue to rise, the market trading atmosphere is good. The market price continued to rise as a whole. Although crude oil fell slightly, its impact on the market continued. Businessmen’s psychology of speculation remained unchanged. Although the trend of gas market was weak, the trend of growth remained firm. The price of methanol in North China rose again by about 200 yuan/ton. With this good support, the market of dimethyl ether expanded further. Domestic price difference is not big, manufacturers reflect that the equipment is in full load status recently, shipment is smooth, inventory pressure is not large. It is expected that short-term domestic dimethyl ether market price increases will be narrowed.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: At present, the market is operating in a positive atmosphere, manufacturers ship smoothly, and the mindset of the operators is strong. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to rise, but in the latter part, they still need to pay attention to the resistance of downstream enterprises to high-end sources, and suggest cautious operation.

On September 18, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 106.14, up 1.75 points from yesterday, down 10.37% from 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and up 37.18% from 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices rose on the 16th. Domestic ammonium nitrate plants operated smoothly. Supported by the rising price of upstream raw material nitric acid, ammonium nitrate market prices rose, ammonium nitrate manufacturers shipment market was general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China was still shut down a lot. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the prices on the site have risen slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2100-2200 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong is 2000-2100 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 1850-2000 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is small. The amplitude is higher.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in domestic market has risen sharply. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu province ranged from 1950 to 2000 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 500 yuan/ton. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1900-2000 yuan per ton, the price rose. Shandong manufacturers quoted 1900-2050 yuan/ton, the price trend rose. The situation of nitric acid shipment has improved, and the rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price of ammonium nitrate has gone up; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is rising, and the market turnover is still acceptable. The market price of liquid ammonia is 3210 yuan/ton, which is affected by the lower cost in the upstream, together with the inventory pressure of most manufacturers. Compared with the previous period, some units have been restarted and local ammonia supply has increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton and 2500-2800 yuan/ton in Northwest China. The rising price of liquid ammonia is related to the downstream ammonium nitrate Market belt. To some extent, the market price of ammonium nitrate has gone up. In recent years, the market of the downstream civil explosion industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers have high stocks. However, the price of raw materials market has risen, and the market of ammonium nitrate has generally risen by a limited margin due to the market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices have risen sharply, downstream demand is still at a low level, expected to be affected by raw material support in the latter part of the ammonium nitrate market prices or will rise slightly.

I. Rising and falling lists

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 8 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices. The top three commodities were PS (4.55%), PA6 (2.90%) and EPS (2.23%). There are five kinds of products that have declined annually. The first three products are PA66 (-1.05%), PET (-0.70%) and styrene-butadiene rubber (-0.47%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.64%. Among them, the natural rubber ring decreased by 0.34% compared with the previous year, and increased by 2.70%.

II. Commodity Index

The natural rubber commodity index on September 15 was 39.19, down 1.78 points from yesterday, down 60.81% from the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 39.22% from the 28.15 point on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

3. Market Trend

In the first half of 2019, the market of natural rubber was ups and downs, while in the second half, it was still quite distressing. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to be a weak shock, a monthly decline of 5.7%, known as “business is very difficult to do”. In the first half of July, Tianjiao shocks dropped until the 16th RU1909 contract closed at 10460 points, down 150 points on the same day, the lowest point of the month, with a decline of 8.15% on the 1st to 16th days. After that, Tianjiao shocks rebounded in the second half of the month and then decreased slightly, with the main contract closing at 10670 points on the last trading day of the month. On August 12th, Tianjiao 20 rubber was listed on the market in the last period of energy. Full latex futures continued to be weak. The highest price was 10,624 yuan/ton on the 31st day, the lowest was 10,260 yuan/ton on the 2nd day, and the maximum monthly amplitude was 3.55%. From the morphological point of view, the first half of August showed an incomplete trend of “W” and the second half showed a trend of “V”, which was generally small in the current month. Amplitude shocks, weak market. Enter September, the first week of the market all the way up, Shanghai glue (whole milk) weekend slightly callback, the second week of the market shock downward; 20 glue in the first week of the highest price 10450, the largest increase of 3.91%, near the weekend callback, the second week of vulnerable shock, the highest weekly price 10315, the lowest 10115, the closing week 10175; According to business club (100ppi.com) monitoring Data show that in 17 years, the mainstream quotation of SCRWF in East China was 10 624 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 1 1040 yuan/ton on the 15th day, with an increase of 3.92% in the first half of the month.

IV. Influencing factors

(1) Analysis of industrial factors

Rubber production: In September, the main production area of natural rubber is still a high-yield period, and the output growth is obvious. Rainfall weather in the main production area in China affects rubber cutting to a certain extent. Statistics show that in general, rubber production in Banna will be reduced by 15%-20% in 2019. Many private factories are short of raw materials to purchase. The low price of raw materials also hampers the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber. In some cases, the phenomenon of less cutting and discarding cutting is observed.

Import and Export: China: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 538,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2019, down 2.71% annually and 11.8% year-on-year. From January to August, the total import volume was 4.166 million tons, down 7.7% from 4.514 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of the amount, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber in August amounted to 837 million US dollars, down 13.2% from the same period last year.

Inventory: Domestic Tianguo stock is still at a high level. As of September 13, 2019, natural rubber stock in the previous period was 471956 (5127) tons and warehouse receipt was 427400 (5210) tons.

Demand: Statistical data show that the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in China from January to July totaled 732,300 vehicles, down 2% from the same period last year. It is expected that the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in the second half of the year will still fall by 5% to 10%. Passenger car sales in August were 1.65 million, down 7.7% from a year earlier, while automobile sales were 1.96 million, down 6.9% from a year earlier. In July, China exported 46.51 million new pneumatic rubber tires, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year, and the export amount reached 9.589 billion yuan, an increase of 5% over the same period last year. In terms of export situation, from January to July, China’s tire export volume was 295 million, an increase of 5.6% over the same period last year, and the export amount was 59.923 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year. The Sino-US trade war is still grim, and China’s tire exports are still affected.

Downstream: China’s tire production continued to decline in the first half of 2019. The total tire output in January-June was 403.745 million, down 1% from the same period last year. In September, the start-up of tire enterprises in China is still affected, and will improve after the 11th National Day. As of September 13, 2019, the total tire start-up load of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 71.81%, which was 0.15 percentage points higher than the previous period and 1.76 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Semi-steel tire start-up load of domestic tire enterprises was 67.11%, which was 0.20 percentage points higher than the previous period and 3.85 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Start-up high for holidays to reduce the rate of start-up. Tire factories have normal inventory and distributors have high inventory.

(2) Analysis of macro-factors

1. Relaxation of automobile consumption: In mid-August, the State Council issued “Opinions on Speeding up the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption”, proposing 20 policy measures such as gradually relaxing or abolishing automobile purchase restrictions and supporting green intelligent commodities to replace old ones with new ones; in June, the State Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued documents to prohibit the introduction of new automobiles everywhere. Vehicle purchase restrictions. Experts believe that the trend of “relaxation” can be seen from the document, together with the issue of “20 consumption items”, to promote China’s automobile consumption has become an overall tone, and the prospects for automobile production and marketing are optimistic.

2. Renminbi depreciation leads to cost increase: At present, the formula for calculating the import cost of natural latex is as follows: (US dollar shipping price * exchange rate + tariff)* (1 + 13%) + customs declaration and other miscellaneous charges, value-added tax 13%. Renminbi depreciation increases the import cost, the exchange rate depreciates from 6.9 to 7.2, and the import cost is about 400 yuan/ton. The superimposed cost of natural quotation increased and the price increased.

3. Statistical data declined: PMI of manufacturing industry declined in August, production, orders, inventory and price index were weak, and there was downward pressure on economic operation. The renewed escalation of Sino-US trade frictions has impacted the development expectations of manufacturing industry. At the same time, the high temperature and rainy weather have a certain impact on the prosperity of manufacturing industry, the most important of which is the insufficient domestic demand. Facing the pressure of weakening demand, the analysis holds that on the one hand, we should expand effective domestic demand and further strengthen the stability of infrastructure construction; on the other hand, we should promote tax reduction and fee reduction, focus on reducing the operating costs of manufacturing enterprises, promote the expected improvement of production and investment of enterprises, and boost the confidence of manufacturing industry.

4. The central bank lowered its benchmark to promote liquidity: On the afternoon of September 6, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve ratio of financial institutions on September 16. The release of funds could reach about 900 billion yuan. The commodity sector, especially commodities dominated by industrial attributes, may be vulnerable to such measures as benchmarking.

V. Related Products

Business association data showed that the commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on September 15 was 34.02, which was unchanged from yesterday, down 66.78% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2011-09-25), up 43.30% from the low of 23.74 points on February 04, 2015, and 34.36 on September 15, which was unchanged from yesterday and 103.60 points from the peak of the cycle. (2011-09-08) decreased by 66.83%, up 20.94% from the lowest point of 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

VI. Future Market Forecast

According to the natural rubber analyst of the business association, September is the traditional consumption peak season. Under the combined effect of macroeconomic, industry development, downstream demand, import and export and other factors, natural rubber once continuously increased for four days. Under the condition of high inventory, the price does not have the conditions to continue to rise. Normal callback. The analysis shows that the price will continue to oscillate due to the recent comprehensive factors. Construction may be affected before the Eleventh holiday. However, considering the seasonal consumption characteristics in autumn and the rising downstream starting rate after the holiday, the peak consumption season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” deserves our attention.

China’s import volume and dependence on imports have steadily declined in recent years

Application and Industry Chain of A Styrene

Styrene is an important liquid chemical raw material. It belongs to monocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons with olefin side chain and conjugated with benzene ring. It is the simplest and most important member of unsaturated aromatic hydrocarbons. Styrene is widely used as raw material for synthetic resins and rubber. Styrene is an important basic organic raw material for petrochemical industry. The direct upstream of styrene is styrene and ethylene, and the downstream is relatively dispersed. The main products involved are foamed polystyrene, polystyrene, ABS resin, rubber, unsaturated polyester resin and styrene copolymers. The terminals are mainly used in plastics and synthetic rubber products.

Overview of Pure Benzene Market for B Raw Material

global market

The direct upstream of styrene is pure styrene and ethylene, in which pure styrene accounts for about 60% of the cost of styrene (styrene cost formula is 0.79 * pure styrene + 0.29 * ethylene + a certain cost). The downstream of pure benzene mainly includes styrene, caprolactam, aniline and phenol ketone, among which the largest downstream is styrene. Global pure benzene production and consumption remained stable from 2011 to 2017. In 2014, global pure benzene consumption slowed down compared with production growth, resulting in a small surplus of pure benzene supply; in 2015, with the rebound of pure benzene demand, pure benzene production began to rise to the bottom; in 2016-2017, global pure benzene supply and demand steadily rebounded. By the end of 2017, global pure benzene production reached 86.54 million tons and consumption reached 85.94 million tons.

Global pure benzene production is mainly concentrated in East Asia, North America and other Asia-Pacific regions, which account for 78.7% of global total benzene production. In addition, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 62.4% of the global total production of pure benzene. From the perspective of global pure benzene trade flows, East Asia and other Asia-Pacific regions are the main exporters, while China and North America are the main importers. Among them, China’s pure benzene imports show an increasing trend year by year, while North America’s imports declined significantly in 2017.

Chinese Market

In 2013, China’s pure benzene industry witnessed a wave of production expansion peak, with production capacity approaching 10 million tons. The next peak is expected to occur in 2019-2021. From the point of view of pure benzene demand, domestic pure benzene consumption has maintained a stable and high-speed growth trend, the largest downstream is styrene, followed by caprolactam, and it will still be the driving force of downstream demand growth in the future. Due to strong demand, the dependence on pure benzene imports has increased year by year, from about 3% in 2011 to 21% in 2018. The main source countries of imports are Korea, Japan and Thailand. In 2017, the dependence on pure benzene imports has reached 85%. By the end of 2018, China had 12.76 million tons of pure benzene production, 89.78 million tons of production, 25.77 million tons of imports and 12.1 million tons of apparent consumption.

C Global Supply and Demand Structure of Styrene

supply

In 2010, the global production capacity of styrene expanded substantially, with an annual capacity increase of about 2.78 million tons and a capacity growth rate of nearly 10%. The main reason is that the consumption of downstream products of styrene (most of which are used in household appliances, automobiles and building materials) in the world, especially in China, increased by more than 15% in 2009 and 2010. 。 After 2010, the growth rate of global styrene production slowed down gradually. By the end of 2017, the global styrene production capacity reached 33.724 million tons.

The global production capacity of styrene is mainly concentrated in East Asia, North America and Western Europe, which account for 78.9% of the global production capacity of styrene. In addition, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for 52% of the world’s total production capacity of styrene.

From the perspective of global output distribution, with the breakthrough of domestic production technology, the main production areas of styrene in the world are mainly transferred from Europe and America to Asia, especially China, which accounts for a rapid increase in the proportion of global styrene production. In addition, the global styrene industry is relatively concentrated. In 2017, the world’s top 10 production enterprises accounted for about 35% of the global total production capacity, and the top 17 production enterprises accounted for about half of the global production capacity.

demand

The downstream demand for styrene is relatively dispersed, and the end products are mainly plastic products and rubber rubber. According to the global downstream demand for styrene in 2016, 37.8% of styrene is used in polystyrene, 22.1% in foamed polystyrene, 15.9% in ABS resin, 9.9% in styrene-butadiene rubber, 4.8% in unsaturated resin and so on.

The main downstream of styrene is styrene polymer polystyrene. Polystyrene has the advantages of transparency, low cost, rigidity, insulation and good printability. It can be impregnated with low boiling point hydrocarbon foaming agent to form hair-able beads. Polystyrene foam has the properties of heat insulation, sound insulation, low temperature resistance, light weight, elasticity and so on. It has the advantages of low water absorption. According to the physical and chemical properties of polystyrene, it can be divided into non-expandable polystyrene and expandable polystyrene. Non-expansible polystyrene mainly includes general-purpose polystyrene and high impact polystyrene. The former is mainly used in electronic and electrical appliances, daily necessities industry, and the latter is mainly used in building materials and packaging materials.

ABS is the second largest styrene derivative. ABS is a copolymer of acrylonitrile (A), butadiene (B) and styrene (S). It has the advantages of impact strength, good oil resistance, water resistance, chemical stability and good cold resistance. It is mainly used in the production of injection moulding products, sheets and films. The end users are mainly automobiles, electronics and households. Electrical appliances, construction pipe industry.

Styrene-butadiene rubber is mainly made of styrene and butadiene. Styrene-butadiene rubber is widely used in tires, belts, rubber shoes and many other rubber products. Styrene-butadiene latex is used in textiles and papermaking. Unsaturated polyester resin is also a major consumer area of styrene, mainly used in the production of FRP products, coatings and building materials.

Driven by China’s dramatic increase in styrene consumption, the global growth rate of styrene consumption is around 11%. After 2010, the growth rate of styrene consumption in China and the world has fallen to a high level. In 2017, the global consumption of styrene was mainly concentrated in East Asia, Western Europe and North America, which accounted for 82.8% of the global consumption of styrene and more than half of the consumption in Asia-Pacific region.

Combining with the global distribution of styrene production capacity and demand, we can see the global trade flow of styrene, the excess production capacity of styrene in the Middle East, East Asia and North America, which are the net export areas of styrene, while China has the largest styrene gap, of which China’s net import of styrene in 2017 is about 3.42 million tons.

D Situation of Styrene Import and Export in China

Supply and demand situation

Before 2011, the production capacity of styrene in China was put into operation centrally, especially in 2009, which increased by 15.95 million tons, an increase of 50% compared with 2008. After 2011, with the downstream growth slowing down, the growth rate of styrene production slowed down. By 2014, the growth rate of styrene production was only 0.7%. From 2015 to 2018, the overall growth rate of styrene production was stable. With the rapid development of the styrene industry, import decreases and import dependence decreases year by year, from about 51% in 2010 to about 26% in 2018. By the end of 2018, there were 44 domestic styrene manufacturers, 52 production lines, 9.217 million tons of styrene production capacity, 8.116 million tons of output, 2.914 million tons of imports and 11.125 million tons of apparent consumption in China. 10 thousand tons. However, from 2019 to 2020, with the steady advancement of domestic private refining and chemical integration units, supporting downstream styrene units will be put into operation one after another, and a new round of centralized production of domestic styrene units, the domestic styrene supply and demand pattern may change from insufficient capacity to gradually surplus.

New capacity

With the centralized production of large private refineries in China, a large number of new production capacity of styrene will be put into operation in the future. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China has orderly promoted domestic private refining and chemical integration projects. At present, tens of millions of integrated refining and chemical projects such as Hengli, Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, Shenghong Petrochemical Company and Xuyang Petrochemical Company have been approved to enter the peak period of construction, and most of the large refining and chemical enterprises are equipped with downstream styrene units. In addition to private refineries, the high profits of styrene in the past two years have also attracted some enterprises to increase the input of styrene production capacity. Roughly estimated that the planned additional capacity of styrene in 2019-2020 will exceed 8 million tons, and the concentrated period of styrene production will come in the next two years.

Import and export situation

With the increase of new domestic production capacity, the import volume and import dependence of styrene in China have steadily declined in recent years. According to customs data, the main importing countries of styrene in China in 2018 are Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, etc. Before 2017, the main source countries of styrene import are Korea, Saudi Arabia and the United States, of which South Korea is the largest source. On June 23, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce of China imposed an anti-dumping duty of 3.8%-55.7% on imports of styrene originating in Korea and the United States for a period of five years, which led to a significant decline in the proportion of Chinese imports from Korea in the second half of 2018, with Saudi Arabia and Japan becoming the main source countries of imports.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer was 7133.33 yuan/ton (including tax) by the end of the weekend, up 0.94% from 7066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

The maleic anhydride commodity index on September 13 was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.66% from the cyclical peak of 123.67 points (2017-12-26), and up 19.64% from the lowest point of 56.17 on February 16, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Maleic anhydride market rose slightly this week. This week, the main domestic maleic anhydride factories are operating normally, without stock pressure, domestic maleic anhydride limited sales, tight spot supply, strong bullish mood.

Industry chain: The overall market of unsaturated resin downstream is stable, but the terminal demand is general. According to business association monitoring, in September domestic pure benzene spot is tight, stimulating the market, Sinopec raised the listing price to 5750 yuan/ton for the second time. Recently, the price of pure benzene has risen sharply, the downstream of high-price pure benzene has strong resistance, and the market is cautious. The domestic hydrobenzene market is running steadily, and the current price is 5200 yuan/ton. The price of n-butane remained stable and the market was well supplied.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 30 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 5 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were butanone (12.76%), crude benzene (11.31%) and nitric acid (7.29%). There are 20 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 3.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are sulphur (-9.60%), R22 (-7.14%) and R134a (-6.79%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.43%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Maleic Anhydride Products of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that at present, maleic anhydride manufacturers have no inventory pressure, pure benzene prices have risen sharply, downstream resins have rebounded, and the maleic anhydride market may rise in the short term.

According to the business community monitoring: after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the hydrogen peroxide market has fallen cliff-like, as of September 16, the domestic average price of 1140 yuan/ton, a one-day decline of 7.57%. Since September 9, hydrogen peroxide has fallen by more than 11%.

September is the peak season for traditional consumption of hydrogen peroxide. However, in September this year, hydrogen peroxide prices did not rise but fell. Prices of hydrogen peroxide rose sharply in August. Limited transportation of dangerous goods during the Mid-Autumn Festival, combined with flat terminal demand, prices have fallen sharply all the way, falling by more than 4%.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, near the National Day, the downstream receipt is not active, there are many manufacturers preparing for overhaul, the terminal demand is general, coupled with many unclear policies before the National Day, the downstream wait-and-see attitude is strong, procurement is not active. At present, there is no wish to stock up before the National Day, the Mid-Autumn Festival high-speed restrictions, some water sales are not smooth, inventory squeeze is too much, continued to fall sharply.

Hebei mainstream quoted 1100 yuan/ton, the price fell 100 yuan/ton; Shandong mainstream quoted 1080-1240 yuan/ton; the price fell 100 yuan/ton; Anhui 1400 yuan/ton, the price is relatively stable.

Business Club hydrogen peroxide analysts believe: near 11, negative pressure, hydrogen peroxide market rise weak, or will continue to be weak downward.

According to Reuters reports from Beijing and Singapore, China Customs Administration (GAC) data show that China’s crude oil imports increased by about 3% in August compared with last month, due to a rebound in refining profits despite persistent excess of petroleum products and tepid demand.

GAC data show that crude oil shipments were 42.17 million tons in August, 41.4 million tons in July and 38.38 million tons in August last year, an increase of 9.9% over the same period last year.

This is equivalent to 9.93 million barrels a day, up from 9.66 million barrels a day in July and the highest level since April.

GAC data show that in the first eight months of 2019, China’s crude oil imports reached 327.8 million tons, or 9.85 million barrels per day, an increase of 9.6% over the same period last year.

In the first half of this year, the profit margin of refineries has recovered to 200 to 300 yuan per ton, but the whole industry is still under pressure due to the supply of petroleum products from Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the large-scale refineries.

“Private refineries in Shandong are also facing difficulties in obtaining bank credit, and they may not be able to use up their annual oil import quotas,” said Amanda Zhao of JLC Network Technology, a Chinese commodity consultancy, before releasing the data.

GAC data show that China exported 4.08 million tons of petroleum products in August, down from 5.49 million tons in July.

From January to August this year, China exported 42.08 million tons of petroleum products, up from 40.22 million tons in the same period in 2018.

Data also show that China’s total natural gas imports, including LNG and pipeline imports, reached 8.34 million tons in August, up 7.3% from the same period last year, the highest since January and 7.89 million tons in July.