Commodity index: on December 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.61% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.89% from 100.90, the lowest point on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 31, 2019, the mainstream market price of polyaluminium chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) was about 1833.33 yuan / ton. On December 1, the mainstream market price was 1950 yuan / ton, and the overall price of this month was reduced by 3.42%.

Price situation: the mainstream monitoring manufacturers of the business association, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market continued to be lowered in December. In the second half of 2019, after experiencing the high price caused by the shutdown from August to October, the price of polyaluminium chloride continued to decline after returning to 1950 yuan / ton on July 1; in six months, the lowest price was 1833.33 yuan / ton on the second half of December, and the highest price was 2016.67 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com) on the commodity, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is mainly concentrated in: the quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) with tax is about 1800-2200 yuan / ton, the quotation of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) with tax is about 380-450 yuan / ton, and the freight of some manufacturers in Henan is increased this month, so the quotation is increased by 50 yuan / ton Right, but some traders in North China have reduced their quotation by 200 yuan / ton due to the lower procurement cost in the early stage.

Industrial chain: in the six months from July to December, when the starting rate of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers is high, the production is normal, the quantity of goods is sufficient and the demand growth is stable in July, the supply is surplus and the price is down; since the middle of August, due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the starting of manufacturers is limited, the supply of goods is reduced and the price is up, which continues to the late September. After the National Day in October, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers returned to normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. In general, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride in the fourth quarter dropped slightly; the trend in November was similar to the “Z” shape of the extended version; the price in December fell to 1833.33 yuan / ton steadily. Among the upstream raw materials, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business association rose sharply in 2019, while the price in December was reduced by about 40 yuan / ton, 290 yuan / ton on December 1, 253 yuan / ton on December 31, down 12.64%. Downstream, in the winter construction off-season, the purchase volume is sharply reduced, the quantity of polyaluminium chloride is sufficient, the cost is reduced, and the supporting effect on the price of polyaluminium chloride is weakened.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business agency shows that the lower upstream raw material price is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production costs. After the new year’s day in 2020, the Gongyi manufacturer in Henan Province will restart, the supply of goods will increase, and the supply of goods will be sufficient, while the winter construction determines the reduction of the downstream procurement. To sum up, polyaluminium chloride market shock weak trend, pay attention to the start-up and inventory situation of manufacturers in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of sulfur continued to decline in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the average ex factory price of sulfur in East China was 1360 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average ex factory price was 503.33 yuan / ton, a 62.99% drop in the year. At the end of the year, the price was also the lowest price in 2019, and the highest price in the year was 1433.33 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to the beginning of March, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday of traditional festivals and the overall downturn of downstream demand, the delivery of production enterprises all over the country presents different pressures. In the downstream, due to the poor delivery of compound fertilizer enterprises and the reduction of the operating rate, the monoammonium market in the ammonium phosphate Market is in weak operation as a whole, while the new export orders of diammonium enterprises are in slow progress, and they are stuck in finishing operation, which has an impact on the sulfur market Demand is light.

In the second stage, from the middle of March to may, monoammonium in the market of ammonium phosphate rose slightly, and the overall market of diammonium was stable. The buying atmosphere in the port market has recovered. The firmness of the external price makes the market more stable. The overall trend of the market is upward, and the domestic sulfur market as a whole presents a shock upward trend. However, in May, downstream demand declined, market support was limited, and the market began to fluctuate.

In the third stage, from June to early October, the price of sulphuric acid continued to decline. Strong supporting factors are hard to find, domestic demand is light and continuous, and merchants’ negative wait-and-see mood, after a long period of stalemate and consolidation, the domestic sulfone Market can only move downward. The main reasons for the decline of the market are the decline of the external market price, the slow consumption of the port inventory, and the difficulty in boosting the downstream demand.

In the fourth stage, from the beginning of October to the end of the year, the general trend of domestic resources has declined, and the downstream demand in various regions has been weak to varying degrees. The domestic market has been impacted by port prices, and the pricing has been declining, and the downstream performance is mainly on demand. The port inventory is still high and low consumption, and there is no change. The market atmosphere is low, and the market continues to decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business association, the current situation of high stock in Hong Kong has not changed, the downstream demand performance is weak, the factory purchases on demand and small orders, and there is no substantive good guidance on supply and demand. In addition, the internal and external support is weak, and most of the enterprises hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the sulfur market will be reorganized and operated in the later stage, depending on the plant conditions in the later stage.

Monday (December 30) in Asia, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, maintaining a three-and-a-half-month high as a whole. Oil prices closed positive for four weeks, the longest consecutive increase since April, due to the positive impact of the US EIA crude oil inventory falling to the lowest level in two months, the stock market rising, and OPEC + deepening production reduction.

However, due to weak production reduction alliance and low global crude oil demand, the supply and demand of oil prices are still unbalanced in 2020, which will be reflected in the pattern of supply exceeding demand, which foreshadows the medium-term downward trend of oil prices.

Russia said that OPEC + crude oil production reduction has stabilized the global oil market, but will not last forever, because after March 2020, the uncertainty faced by the future of the production reduction agreement continues.

Russian energy minister Novak said in an interview, “the reduction of crude oil production cannot be permanent, and we will gradually need to decide to withdraw from the agreement. Russia needs to defend its market share and let its oil companies develop new projects. ”

Novak did not specify when Russia might decide to withdraw from the deal, but said it expected to discuss it with OPEC + colleagues in 2020, with global oil demand surging as early as next summer.

“In fact, OPEC has cut large-scale oil supply for quite a long time, and the duration of its action and the scale of production reduction are mostly unusual,” said Martijn rats, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley. There is still a need for longer and larger cuts, reflecting the potential weakness of market fundamentals. ”

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the overall ABS market fell in 2019, and the spot price in the domestic market shrank to a certain extent. As of December 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 22.76% from the beginning of the year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream of PA6, in the first half of 2019, the domestic caprolactam market basically showed an inverted V-shaped trend, with a basic balance between supply and demand in the market and a stable market price. After the first quarter of the festival, due to the centralized commencement of downstream chip manufacturers, insufficient stock of raw materials before the festival, relatively high purchasing atmosphere, and high overall starting load, the market price continued to rise. At the end of March, some caprolactam units were shut down for maintenance, the supply of goods was slightly tight, and the market maintained a rising trend. At the beginning of the second quarter, the early trend continued, but as the downstream demand gradually weakened, the overall supply and demand returned to stability again, the market price peaked, and the industry returned to wait and see. By May and June, affected by the macro environment, the demand in the terminal market remained light. Although the starting load of upstream and downstream units in the site fell to the new low in recent years, the sluggish demand in the terminal market made the market price of caprolactam continue to fall. In the third quarter, caprolactam rose as a whole due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. The supply of spot goods was tight, which promoted the increase of caprolactam market, and then entered the downturn in the fourth quarter. In October, the price of pure benzene began to fall, the supply of domestic products increased, and the bearish sentiment increased. Caprolactam prices began to decline in October. The downstream procurement is cautious, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds the demand.

Products: PA6 market relatively stable into the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year. After the festival, the cost side strengthened and the price recovered slightly. At the end of the first quarter, some large-scale factories reported an increase in price, and the manufacturer’s parking maintenance plan increased. On the other hand, the demand in the downstream is weak and the market is in a stalemate. By April, the demand was still not improved, but the price trend of upstream caprolactam liquid continued to strengthen, and the supply was further tight. Raw materials are lifted to PA6 disk to offset the shortage of downstream procurement. By may, the start-up rate of upstream caprolactam had increased, the inventory of manufacturers was high, and the price began to decline. PA6 lost the strong support of cost side, the confidence of domestic PA6 industry was impacted, and the quotation of manufacturers was mostly lowered. PA6 followed the rise and fall of caprolactam in July and August. After entering the “golden nine silver ten” traditional peak season, the demand of downstream industries such as home appliances has increased, which has injected the long lost good from itself into PA6 and stepped out of a wave of positive rising stage market. However, the supply of PA6 in China tends to expand, and the demand is weak for half a year, which leads to the closure of traditional peak season grass. The response of the “silver ten” peak season is limited. The manufacturers failed in trying to hold up their prices, and the prices were weak. At the end of the year, it entered the market of looking up and down. At present, PA6 keeps falling with raw materials. Looking at the market of PA6 in 2019pa6, it seems that the cloudy and sunny days of caprolactam have more reference significance. The rise and fall of PA6 spot price in the whole year is largely consistent with the upstream price, but this also reflects the fact that PA6 market is less favorable from the product itself. The growth of demand has lagged behind, the increase of domestic production capacity, PA6 has also followed other rubber and plastic brother industries into the queue of supply and demand imbalance.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in 2019, PA6 market volatility fell. The annual trend of upstream caprolactam is also not ideal, PA6 market is greatly affected by the fluctuation of upstream caprolactam. However, PA6′s own growth momentum is insufficient, and the growth of downstream demand does not match the increase of production capacity. The mentality of the industry is bearish and the operation is cautious. The downstream replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand throughout the year, and the delivery and investment are average. PA6 market in the whole year has great upward resistance, and it is expected that it will not improve in the short term.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (December 30, 2019): 11833.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 11500-11700 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

Recently, the domestic trade market began to start, because the domestic aluminum alloy factory stock up during the Spring Festival, the volume of information sheet increased. At present, social inventory continues to move down, supporting the current metal silicon price.

4. Aftermarket forecast: the aftermarket is mainly waiting for the change of downstream demand, and it is expected that the short-term stable operation of silicon metal is the main thing.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (December 30, 2019): 14166.67 yuan / ton

On December 30, 2019, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was weak and stable, and the specific price range was as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 14100-14200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 14200-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 14200-14400 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 14100-14200 yuan / ton.

3. Key points of analysis: at the beginning of last week, the price of magnesium ingot stopped falling and rising. It is reported that in the near future, the number of information sheets has increased, the delivery and investment have improved, and the stock of some manufacturers is not much, and the willingness to stand up is firm. Downstream alloy manufacturers and magnesium powder manufacturers started to prepare goods years ago, and presale contracts sometimes occur.

4. Future market forecast: the overall market turns better. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will maintain stable and strong operation in the near future, and pay attention to the actual transaction situation in the market in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week is stable. During the week, the average market price in East China was 1560 yuan / ton from the weekend, which was stable compared with the weekend last year, down 26.53% year on year. On December 27, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.00, flat with yesterday, down 32.12% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.68% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price market is weak and stable, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The market trend of soda ash has not changed much, the inventory of enterprises is under certain pressure, and the shipment of individual enterprises has improved, and the maintenance or reduction of devices has been achieved. This week, the number of maintenance and production restriction manufacturers increased, and the weighted average starting load of soda ash manufacturers was 81.19%. Prices fell to a low level, downstream users moderately prepared goods before the festival, some downstream demand performance improved, and enterprise inventory decreased. Spot price: 1530 yuan / ton of heavy soda in Shahe market; 1700 yuan / ton of heavy soda in North China and 1600 yuan / ton of heavy soda in East China.

In terms of supply: the 300000 ton plant of Hebang No.1 plant is expected to start operation next week. Shaanxi Xinghua and Henan Junhua plan to start operation in the past two days. In the process of continuous production restriction of sodium carbonate in Haihua, the southern alkali industry is operating at half load, which affects the output as a whole. The enterprise inventory has been eased, and the trend of sodium carbonate is stable. At present, it is still the centralized period for downstream users to prepare goods before the Spring Festival. The overall order receiving and shipment situation of soda ash manufacturers is improved, and the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers may be relieved next week.

Demand: downstream demand, general performance, purchasing sentiment improved. The downstream demand of light alkali is general, the price of domestic baking soda continues to decline in the near future, the market of daily glass, sodium tripolyphosphate, effervescence alkali, monosodium glutamate and other products is general, and the overall profit is low. The downstream of heavy soda is dominated by glass enterprises. The float glass manufacturers have little change in the amount of soda ash. The price of soda ash is at a low level. The glass manufacturers have a good profit situation, stable production, and a long period of safety stock. Before the Spring Festival, the glass manufacturers should properly stock up.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, the delivery situation of domestic soda ash manufacturers has improved recently, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has continued to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a high level. The downstream demand is general, and the end-user shall replenish the warehouse and stock up properly before the Spring Festival. Although the operating rate and domestic inventory of some soda ash enterprises have declined recently, the inventory is still at a high level, and the period price is still under obvious pressure. Considering the Spring Festival, traders are more cautious to watch the market, and it is expected that the soda ash market will be sorted out and operated next week.

In this week (12.23-12.27), the price of NBR fell slightly. At the beginning of the week, the price of NBR was 16433 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the price of NBR was 16333 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.61% overall.

Low price of raw butadiene

Butadiene price is low, which weakens the support for NBR. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of butadiene in this week (12.23-12.27) is around 8345 yuan / ton, with little overall change.

Stable ex factory price of petrochemicals

The unit of NBR manufacturer in China is in normal operation, the factory price of NBR is stable, and the overall operation rate of NBR unit is around 70%. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65000 T / a unit is in normal operation. This week, the factory price of Lanhua NBR is stable. At present, n41e reports 15000 yuan / ton, 3305e reports 15500 yuan / ton, and 3308e reports 15600 yuan / ton.

Downstream inquiry on demand

The demand of the downstream plant of NBR is weak, and the demand inquiry for NBR is more on demand, so the overall NBR market is relatively weak and stable.

Outlook for the future

According to Xu Xiaokun, an analyst of business agency, the price of raw materials is low, and the downstream inquiry is on demand, so the overall NBR is slightly weak. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to be weak in the later period.

Slava kiryushin, DWF’s head of global energy, highlighted the expected trends in the global energy sector in 2020, according to hydrocarbon processing news on December 26.

When it comes to global oil trade in 2020, kiryushin is expected to see oversupply. “Many oil traders predict a bull market for the global oil industry in 2020, and some of them even speculate that oil prices could reach $100 / barrel,” he said. However, recent market analysis shows that this is unlikely to happen, and the market will be in a state of oversupply. I think this is mainly due to the increase of shale gas production and the lower than expected global economic growth. The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) supports the idea that there will be a global oversupply. ”

“Even the new shipping fuel regulation (i.e. IMO 2020) to be implemented in January 2020 is not expected to change this trend, although it may lead to increased demand for low sulfur gasoline and diesel. There is no doubt that the growth of oil supply is a sensitive topic for OPEC + member countries, because 500000 barrels / day of production has been agreed to be cut from OPEC’s supply. Overall, the market is not so optimistic about the ‘recovery’ of oil prices. ”

According to kiryushin, demand for natural gas is likely to increase by 2020. “Unlike hydrocarbons, natural gas demand is likely to grow in 2020 and beyond,” he said. Whether it’s due to IMO 2020, the demand for chemical products (requiring natural gas) or the environmental impetus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it can prove that the demand for natural gas will increase. ”

“Climate change also has a significant impact on gas demand. Whether it’s using natural gas as a fuel to keep the northern hemisphere warm in the cold winter or converting it into electricity to drive air conditioning in the hot summer, natural gas will remain at the forefront of the energy sector in 2020. ”

“The only real question is whether oil related gas prices are sufficiently competitive with alternative fuels.”

1、 Price trend

In 2019, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province fluctuated, and on the whole, it rose significantly. The price of hydrochloric acid in the first and second quarter all rose tentatively, but it was weak in the follow-up, and the price fell again after sticking to it for several days. From the third quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid began to rise all the way, especially in the first ten days of November. According to the data monitored by the business association, in 2019, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province rose, and the average price quoted by mainstream manufacturers rose from 90.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 273.33 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 203.70%. It can be clearly seen from the price trend chart of hydrochloric acid that the highest comprehensive quotation of hydrochloric acid Market in 2019 is at the end of November, with the quotation of 290.00 yuan / ton, while the lowest price appears at the end of May, with the quotation of 70.00 yuan / ton, the highest difference of 220.00 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 314.29%.

2、 Trend analysis

In 2019, the comprehensive price trend of hydrochloric acid is roughly divided into two stages in the first half of the year: the first half of the year saw tentative increase in the price of hydrochloric acid, but the subsequent support was insufficient; in the second half of the year, affected by the market of liquid chlorine, the price of hydrochloric acid began to rise. The specific trend is as follows:

First half of the year: the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province increased slightly. As can be seen from the hydrochloric acid trend chart above, the price of hydrochloric acid rose slightly in the first half of the year. The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid rose from 90 yuan / ton on January 1 to 100 yuan / ton on June 30, an increase of 11.11%. During this period, the price of hydrochloric acid rose twice in the first and second quarter. In the first quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid rose from 90 yuan / ton on January 1 to 150 yuan / ton on January 8, an increase of 66.67%, and the price began to fall after five days. In the second quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid rose from 80 yuan / ton on March 25 to 177.50 yuan / ton on April 12, an increase of 121.88%. Although the price lasted a long time in the second quarter, in May, the price of hydrochloric acid began to fall again. In the first half of the year, although the production and sales rate of the original salt was 97%, the price of the liquid chlorine market peaked in April.

In the second half of the year: the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province started to rise. As can be seen from the hydrochloric acid trend chart above, the price of hydrochloric acid rose significantly in the second half of the year. The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid rose from 100 yuan / ton on July 1 to 273.33 yuan / ton on December 26, an increase of 173.33%. During this period, the price of hydrochloric acid rose most obviously in the first ten days of November, and the quotation rose from 163.33 yuan / ton on November 4 to 290.00 yuan / ton on November 13, an increase of 77.55%. In the third quarter of the second half of the year, the production and sales rate of the original salt was 99.7%, and the liquid chlorine market also had the highest price in November.

3、 Industrial chain:

Upstream market: Although the original salt production and sales rate slightly fell in 2019, the cumulative percentage of the original salt production and sales rate fell from 120.08% in the first quarter to 97% in the second quarter, and then slightly rose to 99.7% in the third quarter. However, the market performance of liquid chlorine in 19 years was strong, and compared with the previous positive and negative market, there was a sense of “strong counterattack” in 19 years. During this period, the market peaked in April and November respectively, reaching a high-end price of 1100 yuan / ton.

Downstream market: Although the market price of hydrochloric acid has been greatly increased, there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand. The downtrend of downstream market is serious, and the construction is declining, which directly leads to the decrease of hydrochloric acid commodity supply, laying a foundation for the continuous upward trend of hydrochloric acid market.

4、 Future forecast

Hydrochloric acid market may continue to consolidate at a high level in early 2020. From the perspective of Shandong Province, there are still new projects in the downstream in 2020, and the caustic soda market will still have greater pressure in 2020 under the transformation and upgrading of China and environmental protection at all levels. It is expected that the hydrochloric acid market will continue to be consolidated at a high level at the beginning of 2020.