1、 Acrylic price trend:

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

2、 Market analysis:

On January 15, acrylic acid market was stable. The average price of acrylic acid enterprises as of January 15 was 8200 yuan / ton, which was the same as yesterday, down 3.53% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk list of business agencies. On the 15th, the main price of acrylic acid in China was around 7500-9300 yuan / ton. On January 15, the acrylic commodity index was 41.12, unchanged from yesterday, 58.88% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 67.36% higher than the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 till now) at present, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of common acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7800 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid business association believe that the price of raw material propylene rose to a high level recently, with strong cost support. Before the downstream Festival, the atmosphere of goods preparation was active, the actual orders were increased, and the market trading was good. It is expected that in the short term, acrylic acid market will be dominated by high and strong operation, and more attention should be paid to upstream and downstream and mainstream market conditions.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on January 15, the spot nickel price fell slightly, with a quotation of 111141.67 yuan / ton, down 1.89% from the previous day, up 20.33% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 109140 yuan, followed by a narrow range of price fluctuations, closing at 109140 yuan, up 0.22%.

2、 Market analysis

LUNI nickel inventory rose to a nine month high and closed down 1.52% overnight in a weak shock. On the supply side, the Philippines, New Caledonia and Guatemala will play an alternative role in nickel import, but they cannot fully meet the demand. In terms of demand, the domestic downstream procurement is becoming increasingly light, the consumption of stainless steel at the end of the year is light, and some steel plants and ferronickel plants reduce production and overhaul. Indonesia’s early ore ban has changed the supply pattern of nickel market, and domestic ferronickel production capacity has shifted to Indonesia.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: the Spring Festival is approaching, there is no obvious demand release in the downstream, there are also less inquirers, supply and demand are weak, and nickel is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term.

Can rely on 6645 yuan / ton of rebound high point test empty

With the recovery of calcium carbide supply after the Spring Festival and the transformation of market supply and demand pattern, PVC may continue the trend of recent correction.

Limited cost support

At the end of each year, due to the rainy and snowy weather in Northwest China and the shortage of transportation capacity before the Spring Festival, there will be structural shortage of calcium carbide supply. This year is no exception. Due to the heavy snow in many places in the north, the road transportation is not smooth, and the delivery of calcium carbide production enterprises is not smooth. In this case, the raw material supply of PVC production enterprises with calcium carbide method is tight, and enterprises start to plunder raw materials, and the price of calcium carbide has rebounded sharply in the near future.

At present, due to the rising price of cost end, the profit of PVC by calcium carbide method and ethylene method has been compressed, and the supporting effect of cost end on PVC has begun to appear. Before February, the market capacity tension and weather factors are difficult to ease, and the strong pattern of calcium carbide price is expected to continue. However, the shortage of calcium carbide supply is only structural. At present, calcium carbide enterprises show a trend of accumulation. With the recovery of transportation capacity after the Spring Festival, this part of inventory will be put on the market, the price of calcium carbide will fall, and the supporting effect of cost on PVC will also be weakened.

Abundant market supply

As of the week of January 12, the starting load of domestic PVC production enterprises was 81.89%, down 0.98% month on month, up 0.72% year on year. Among them, the starting load of PVC production enterprises with calcium carbide method is 82.45%, down 1.09% on a month on month basis; the starting load of PVC production enterprises with ethylene method is 79.27%, up 1.69% on a month on month basis. At present, there are only a few devices in China that have been shut down for a long time due to faults, and only a few of them have been overhauled or their load has been reduced. Among them, the starting load of 400000 ton unit in Inner Mongolia Sanlian is 50%, that of 300000 ton ethylene process unit in Salt Lake magnesium industry is temporarily stopped, that of 500000 ton calcium carbide process unit is 50%, that of 120000 ton unit in Qingsong Jianhua is 70%, and that of 80000 ton unit in Chengdu Huarong is overhauled to the beginning of February. The overall starting load of domestic PVC production enterprises is on the high side, and the market supply is relatively abundant. After the Spring Festival, with the reduction of environmental protection pressure, some limited devices will resume production and increase load, and the market supply will further increase.

Weak market demand

In terms of demand, near the end of the year, downstream pipe and profile enterprises shut down in a large area. In addition, it is the low consumption season in the downstream. Downstream enterprises are pessimistic about PVC market, so the market stock strength is limited. Downstream enterprises are more focused on purchasing just needed or digesting their own inventory. Not only that, due to the limit of collection before, some downstream enterprises suspended accepting orders, and consumption further weakened.

In terms of inventory, although the inventory of PVC has increased recently, it has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, which shows that the inventory removal of PVC in the middle of last year is relatively strong, which objectively supports the price of PVC. However, if the supply and demand of PVC is still in the current situation after the Spring Festival, then the inventory or enter the accumulation cycle, which will suppress the price of PVC.

To sum up, PVC prices rebounded to an important pressure level supported by rising costs and low inventories. But we think that the price rise of calcium carbide is caused by poor transportation. With the recovery of transportation capacity after the Spring Festival, the cost support for PVC will be weakened. At the same time, at present, the starting load of PVC enterprises is on the high level, while the downstream consumption performance is relatively weak. In this case, the overall market supply exceeds demand pattern will be formed, and PVC inventory will gradually rise. Based on the above judgment, we believe that the probability of PVC price falling in the later period is relatively large, and we can rely on the rebound high of 6645 yuan / ton for short test, and the first target is near the 60 day average.

As the Lunar New Year approaches, overall demand in the Asian plasticizer market is likely to slow. There are three reasons:

1. Buyers remain cautious

2. Cost pressure on manufacturers remains

3. The seller hopes for the demand after the festival

On the other hand, due to the recent rising trend of raw material prices, with the rising cost, it is unlikely that manufacturers will make the goods cheaper at this juncture.

The price of upstream propylene and 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) is stronger, because some producers reduce production, while others seriously consider reducing operating rate, leading to tight supply.

Most parts of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia are celebrating the lunar new year. January 25 is the lunar new year. From January 24, China will have a full week off.

Buyers of plasticizers can take advantage of the long holiday as an opportunity to further study the market. The purchase is still cautious, the demand has not increased significantly, and the downstream demand after the festival is uncertain.

After the festival, some buyers may find that their inventory is low, and some manufacturers may hold more goods, because the Northeast Asia plant has no planned outage.

Investors have turned to look at the price trend of previous years to find some clues about the market trend.

For dioctyl phthalate (DOP), spot prices in East Asia after the lunar new year have been rising since 2017, although the increase in 2019 is relatively small.

According to ICIS data, on January 9, 2020, the average spot price of DOP was assessed as $940 / T CFR East Asia, up $5 / T from the previous week.

1、 Price trend:

On January 11, crude benzene commodity index was 74.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.33% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 90.37% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

This week (1.06-11.10) the domestic crude benzene market was raised. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 4735 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 4771.67 yuan / ton, up 0.77%.

Domestic market: this week’s pure benzene port inventory slightly lower than last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the situation in the Middle East, the oil price soared, driving the price of pure benzene to rise in the external market and the domestic market to rise. Crude benzene rose to 4650-4700 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. In the near future, the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started relatively stable operation, with the operating rate slightly increased to about 60%, and the demand for crude benzene is stable.

Industry chain: this week’s oil price shows a parabola trend, which goes down for four consecutive days after Monday’s big rise. Earlier this week, oil prices rose as concerns about the supply or decline of crude oil increased as tensions in the Middle East escalated last week. Later, oil prices fell sharply due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and signs of easing in the Middle East. WTI fell by 6.1% and Brent by 2.8% compared with January 3; pure benzene: Port inventory of pure benzene decreased slightly this week compared with last week. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back. Downstream: this week, styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend. The arrival of styrene in the main port increased. Generally speaking, the styrene market was forced to stay short this week, with a trading deadlock, up 1.17% compared with last Friday. In the lower reaches of Shandong Province, aniline enterprises competed for shipment, and Jinling reduced 100 yuan / ton, or 0.52%. The upstream pure benzene price is still high, the downstream demand is light, and the profits of aniline enterprises are in deficit.

3、 Trend Forecast:

At present, the external market of pure benzene has a limited boost, crude oil returns to the previous level, the follow-up direction is unclear, the winter transportation is more difficult, the north is snowy, the transportation is limited, the North resources are difficult to enter East China for arbitrage, the freight price increases and other adverse factors are more, the downstream demand of crude benzene is stable, the crude benzene market before the budget savings is mainly consolidated, and it is difficult to have large fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market price of ammonium sulfate rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 556 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average ex factory price was 566 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.8%. So far, the ammonium sulfate commodity index on January 14 is 47.28, down 0.14 points from yesterday, 55.51% from the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.00% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: in recent years, the regional difference of coking grade ammonium sulphate is obvious in China, and the price has gone up and down. The price of domestic ammonium sulfate is weak and stable. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is weak, the quotation is stable, and some enterprises adjust slightly, focusing on early orders. The downstream purchases on demand and orders in the early stage. The enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. In some areas, transportation is blocked due to snowfall weather, and goods are moving slowly. The compound fertilizer enterprises are in a weak consolidation stage.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association, although the domestic market has increased the inquiry of ammonium sulphate, the actual operation is general, and the industry mostly takes a wait-and-see attitude. The price of domestic ammonium sulfate manufacturers is firm, and the price of coking grade fluctuates slightly. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate in the later period will be mainly weak and volatile, and the market before the festival will not be favorable, so it is suggested to be cautious.

At present, the main contract price of styrene futures fluctuates in a narrow range of 7300-7500 yuan / ton for more than one month. Recently, under the influence of the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, although the main contract price rebounded, it still failed to break through this operating range. Looking forward to the future, the contradiction between supply and demand of styrene still exists, and the period price may be dominated by weak operation.

Limited impact of us Iraq incident

On January 3, the United States carried out an air raid on Baghdad International Airport, killing major general Sulaimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Tensions in the Middle East escalated rapidly, international oil prices soared, and styrene rebounded. On the morning of January 8, Beijing time, the U.S. Air Force Base in Iraq was attacked by rockets, and the energy and chemical sector rose again rapidly. The tense situation in the Middle East stimulated the sharp rise of crude oil, which to some extent pushed up the cost of styrene. However, as the proportion of styrene imported directly from Iran is less than 3%, its direct impact on domestic styrene supply is limited. And trump said the United States will impose new economic sanctions on Iran, but is willing to cooperate with Iran on common interests. Subsequently, the international oil price fell sharply, and the market confidence in long styrene will also weaken.

Rapid expansion of production capacity

According to the domestic production situation, the price of pure benzene has increased recently. The data shows that on January 8, the price of Jiangsu’s cans was 5900 yuan / ton, about 150 yuan / ton higher than the low point at the beginning of the year. The price of ethylene is relatively stable near the lowest level in the past decade. The price of raw materials increased steadily, and the profit of styrene was poor in the near future. According to rough estimation, the production cost of styrene in East China is about 7600 yuan / ton, and the processing profit is about – 300 yuan / ton. Although the production efficiency of styrene is not ideal at present, there are not a large number of units in China for shutdown maintenance. Data shows that as of January 2, the national styrene operating rate was 82.5%, near the highest level in the same period of nearly six years. At present, the 300000 t / a styrene unit of Xinyang Technology is still under maintenance, and it is planned to restart in mid January; Shandong Yuhuang plans to start on January 10, and there is no new maintenance plan. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic styrene operating rate will remain high in the near future.

To make matters worse, on December 30 last year, the “40 million tons / year refining and chemical integration project (phase I)” oil refining, aromatics, ethylene and downstream chemical plants invested and built by Zhejiang Petrochemical Company have opened the whole process, realized stable operation and produced qualified products. Zhejiang Petrochemical phase I project involves an annual production capacity of 1.2 million tons of styrene, accounting for about 13% of the existing domestic production capacity. In addition, in the first half of the year, Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Guba) styrene plant with an annual capacity of 720000 tons is planned to be put into operation. In the second half of the year, Baolai chemical, Anhui Jiaxi and other units are planned to be put into operation. It is expected that domestic styrene supply will become more relaxed.

Insufficient demand follow-up

At present, the overall profit of the downstream industry is still good, but some industries are in the off-season demand. Data shows that in early January, EPS gross profit of East China was about 730 yuan / ton, PS gross profit was 1000-1110 yuan / ton, and ABS manufacturer’s profit was about 1900 yuan / ton. High profit makes the industry’s willingness to reduce the negative rate of operation weak, but some industries continue to decline due to the impact of the off-season. As of January 2, the operating rate of EPS industry is 47.34%, which is the seventh consecutive week of decline. As the real estate industry has entered the construction slack season, it may continue to decline in the later period. PS demand is good, and the commencement has been improved, but Jiangsu green an Qingfeng stopped for maintenance on January 5, and will restart in early February, about 25 days of maintenance, which may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate of the industry. ABS, UPR and styrene butadiene industry are relatively stable 。 In addition, in the near future, most prices in the downstream market have declined slightly, and the overall operating rate of the short-term downstream industry is likely to weaken slightly.

From the medium and long-term analysis, in 2020, the new capacity of downstream EPS, PS and ABS is planned to be 740000 tons, 400000 tons and 200000 tons respectively, which is less than the increase of upstream capacity. In addition, most new downstream units are planned to be put into operation in the second half of 2020. Considering the postponement, the capacity that can be realized in 2020 will be more limited.

In a word, the domestic styrene operating rate is at a high level. In addition, new units of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. are put into operation, and there are few new maintenance plans. It is expected that the supply of styrene will be loose in the short term. On the demand side, it is difficult to significantly increase the demand due to the holiday near the Spring Festival downstream. Styrene is expected to gradually enter the accumulation stage. In terms of operation, it is recommended to give priority to short selling and set stop loss.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China on January 13 was 1583 yuan / ton, down 1.04% from last week.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is stable temporarily, that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1500 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Anhui Jinhe is 1450 yuan / ton, the price is 50 yuan / ton lower than last time; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 1800 yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily. Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1750 yuan / ton, the offer is temporarily stable; Huainan Audley chemical concentrated nitric acid offers 1500 yuan / ton, the offer is temporarily stable; nitric acid demand is weak, the enterprise offer is weak.

Industrial chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material in the upstream of nitric acid, some manufacturers in Shandong Province had loose supply last week, and the enterprise’s shipping pressure increased gradually. However, the manufacturers with large ammonia volume mainly stabilized their prices, and they have been shipping in succession. The main quotation in Shandong Province is 2850-2950 yuan / ton. Last week, the price of aniline in Shandong Province was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, while the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6200 yuan / ton last Friday, down 1.59% from 6300 yuan / ton last Friday.

3、 Future forecast

The nitric acid analysts of the business association predict that the nitric acid market may continue to be dominated by weak operation.

On January 13, the PX commodity index was 55.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.09% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.19% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, in recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has remained volatile, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, the operation of other plants is stable temporarily, and the domestic p-xylene plant has been installed The market supply of p-xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On January 10, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 5 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 797-799 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 817-819 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market in the United States recently fell to US $59.04/barrel, or US $0.52, while Brent crude oil futures fell to US $64.98/barrel, or US $0.39. The energy information administration reported an increase of 1.2 million barrels in crude oil inventories in the first week of the new year and a further decline in crude oil prices, after a decrease of 11.5 million barrels in the week before the EIA report. Analysts had expected a decrease of 4.064 million barrels in the week to January 3. The authorities also reported that the gasoline inventory increased by 9.1 million barrels, and the average daily fuel output during the reporting period was 8.9 million barrels, compared with 3.2 million barrels in the previous week, and the average daily output was 10.2 million barrels. The decline of crude oil price was negative for domestic chemical prices, and the domestic p-xylene price trend was temporarily stable.

In terms of raw material PTA, the recent price remains at the level of 4900-5000 yuan / ton, the PTA operating rate remains at about 85%, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is reduced to around 30%. Weaving enterprises show the phenomenon of reducing the number of orders and lack of stamina. In winter, the turnover of fabrics decreases month by month, while in spring, the order of fabrics is relatively limited. At the same time, near the end of the year, most enterprises are reducing prices to inventory in order to recover funds, and later loading and weaving factories will be shut down for holidays, PTA market price changes little, and the trend of p-xylene price is temporarily stable.

In the near future, crude oil prices continue to decline, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market, but the downstream demand of the terminal is general, and business analysts believe that PX market price may remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 13, the market of n-propanol was weak and stable, and the average price of sample enterprises was basically the same as that of last week (January 6). At present, the main quotation of domestic n-propanol traders is around 10500-11400 yuan / ton. Due to the large price difference between different packaging specifications, the main quotation of imported barrel n-propanol from Dalian, Taiwan is around 11600-12000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of 2020, the main market of n-propanol in China has been running steadily. After a slight increase at the beginning of the month, it is basically the same as that at the end of 2019. On January 13, the market of n-propanol in China is mainly weak and stable. The ex factory quotation of n-propanol produced by Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is stable at the end of December, with a reference price of 8500 yuan / ton (net water including tax). Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd The price of n-propanol sold in Zibo, Shandong Province is stable, with an external quotation of 10500 yuan / ton (including tax barrels); the price of imported n-propanol bulk water sold by Yexing chemical industry in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone is around 9800 yuan / ton, and the price of barrels is around 10500 yuan / ton; the price of imported n-propanol sold by Shanghai Lianyi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11600 yuan / ton (barrel specification: 165kg). As dealers in different regions offer different prices or reserve prices, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are differences in each region, and the actual single negotiation is the main one. In the future, we need to wait and see the price change and delivery of raw materials.

Industry chain: in the near future, the market of propylene oxide has been running smoothly, the start-up of propylene oxide plant is stable, the inventory is controllable, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the quotation of enterprises in this cycle is mainly stable. The delivery price of cash in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical on October 10 was 9950 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9900-10000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is around 9600-9800 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 9700-9800 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency: the downstream demand of domestic n-propanol is general, and the domestic production capacity basically reaches the supply and demand. It is expected that in the short term, the trading volume of n-propanol market is still average, downstream demand is waiting for recovery, and the overall market maintains stable operation.