According to statistics of business agency, as of March 27, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu Province reported 15567 yuan / ton, down 1266 yuan / ton, down 7.52%, down 26.92% year-on-year; POY price of nylon was 13520 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton, down 5.59%, down 26.36% year-on-year; FDY price of nylon was 17000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton, down 5.56%, down 26.88% year-on-year.

Supply and demand imbalance, crude oil prices dive. On March 6, a new round of OPEC + “production reduction negotiations broke down. On that day, international oil prices plummeted 30% to around $30 / barrel. As of March 27, WTI crude oil fell 52.01% in March. Oil producing countries have begun to increase production and cut prices to seize the market. Saudi Aramco, a Saudi oil giant, said that its supply will reach 12.3 million barrels / day in April, while Russia responded that it has the ability to increase production by 500000 barrels / day to a record 11.8 million barrels / day. Iraq, Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and other countries have also announced to join the increase in production. Crude oil production is on the way, but demand is falling sharply. The novel coronavirus pneumonia spread worldwide, and the control measures in many countries and regions have been upgraded, aviation, transportation, travel reduction and economic activity slowdown. Crude oil may remain low.

Product March 1 March 27 up and down unit

Cyclohexanone 7350 6100-1250 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 10633 9267-1366 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 12867 10633-2234 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 18000 17000-1000 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 16833 15567-1266 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 14320 13520-800 yuan / ton

Cost support collapsed, demand was flat, nylon raw material prices fell sharply. The price of cyclohexanone fell by 1200 yuan / ton in March, and the actual market price was between 5600-6100 yuan / ton. Caprolactam was down about 1300 yuan / ton, while PA6 was down about 2200 yuan / ton. The downstream consumption inventory is the main one, the purchase intention is not strong, PA6 inventory becomes a problem, with a large drop.

In March, some nylon enterprises were still in order production state because of the raw materials still in place years ago, the factory operation rate was low, the purchase intention was not strong, and the inventory cost was high to support the quotation. In the middle of March, most of the manufacturers successively lowered their prices, and some of them kept their weekly decline at about 500 yuan / ton in the near future. From the price trend chart of cyclohexanone and nylon POY, it can be seen that the crude oil price is low or hard to change. Cyclohexanone fell precipitously in the middle and last ten days of March, while the price trend of nylon POY is relatively flat, filament manufacturers are still digesting inventory and price exploration stage.

Crude oil is in low volatility, nylon orders are weak, with the consumption of inventory, cost reduction, pricing gradually downward. Business analysts believe that the cost support is insufficient, orders are also not optimistic, nylon is expected to continue to reduce.

1、 Overall trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall trend of domestic PE market has declined to varying degrees, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is poor. As of March 24, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6600 yuan / ton, down 0.5% compared with the previous day; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was 7562.5 yuan / ton, down 0.33% compared with the previous day; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7000 yuan / ton, down 1.87% compared with the previous day; the decline range was 50-200 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

On the 24th, the PE market as a whole still fell, most of the petrochemical industry was cut by about 50-200 yuan / ton, and the market cost support was weakened. In the morning (24 days), crude oil rebounded slightly after falling, and linear futures fell weakly, which had a certain degree of pressure on the market mentality. Merchants were mainly pessimistic, and the overall decline was reported. Downstream market inquiries less, in addition to some factories on demand, more cautious wait-and-see. At present, the market atmosphere is weak.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the futures market continued to decline on March 24, which to some extent depressed the mentality of the industry. The opening price of polyethylene futures l2005 is 6330, the highest price is 6330, the lowest price is 6065, the closing price is 6270, the former settlement price is 6250, the settlement price is 6195, down 65, down 1.04%, the volume is 310925, the position is 168342, and the daily increase is – 16822. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

As of February 27, the total output of domestic polyethylene enterprises was 1.41 million tons, a decrease of 252300 tons compared with January. Among them, the output of HDPE is 578900t, LDPE is 206800t and LLDPE is 624300t.

3、 Future forecast

In the morning, the rebound of international crude oil brought some relief to the market. At present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen and the supply pressure has eased. However, the linear futures continued to fall sharply, which depressed the enthusiasm of the downstream market. In terms of petrochemical industry, most of the factory prices have been lowered, the market cost support has been weakened, and the enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream is not high. In addition to just need to take delivery, the factory mainly focuses on wait-and-see. It is expected that the trend of the future market will remain weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on March 24 was 6000 yuan / ton, down 1.84% compared with the previous day, and down 4.99% compared with the same period last year. On March 24, the PVC commodity index was 76.03, down 1.43 points from yesterday, down 23.97% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 30.48% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the domestic PVC market continued to decline on Tuesday. PVC futures fell in a row, driving spot prices down. On the foreign side, due to the recent continuous decline of crude oil market and the impact of foreign public health events, the demand for PVC has been greatly reduced, which has greatly affected the export of PVC, and the confidence of the industry is poor; on the domestic side, the downstream enterprises of PVC have resumed their work in succession, and the demand shows a slow growth trend, but the multi-dimensional system just needs to purchase, the transaction is limited, and most manufacturers are difficult to ship. At present, the supply side of PVC is a little abundant, the inventory is still at a high level, and the manufacturers cut prices more to facilitate the delivery, but the actual delivery is general, the focus of the transaction moves down, and the manufacturers may enter the maintenance in advance to maintain the cost. In the short term, there is no significant positive signal in the PVC market at home and abroad. Futures and spot prices have fallen frequently. The overall market is relatively low and the market is weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of March 24, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5800-6200 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5730-5900 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 5750-5900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 5780-5800 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

Futures: pvc2005 contract opened at 5740 yuan / ton, with a maximum of 5795 yuan / ton and a minimum of 5575 yuan / ton, and closed at 5680 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton, or 2.15% compared with the previous transaction, with trading volume increased to 227756 and positions decreased by 3152 to 112483. V2005 futures continued to fall, ending at a low of 5575.

Industry chain: according to the business community, although crude oil rebounds sharply, it is difficult to reverse the long-term downturn of oil price. It is expected that crude oil will still fluctuate at a low level in the near future. It is not ruled out that it is possible to continue to explore the low level. The prevalence of public health events may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, which cannot support the price of ethylene, so analysts of business data expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow decline in the future. In terms of calcium carbide, in late March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall slightly in late March.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 24, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which natural rubber (0.21%) rose. There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are SBR (- 5.07%), cis-4.99% and PS (- 4.56%).

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club think: at present, PVC futures are down, while the spot market is down. There is no obvious positive signal at home and abroad, and it is expected that the PVC market will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic grade-I chlorinated paraffin 52 on March 23 was 4950 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic grade-I chlorinated paraffin 52 on March 24 was 4866 yuan / ton, down 1.68% per day. On March 24, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin was 72.46, down 1.24 points from yesterday, 33.78% from the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 13.48% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, chlorinated paraffin enterprises have resumed work. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5000 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3700-4500 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 3800-4800 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5400 yuan / ton.

International crude oil: WTI’s may 2020 futures rose $0.65 per barrel on Tuesday (March 24), while Brent’s may 2020 futures rose $0.12 per barrel at $27.15. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract rose 17.2 yuan / barrel to 258.5 yuan / barrel in 2006

Industry chain: the market of raw material liquid wax is stable, and the market is mainly stable. Downstream manufacturers purchase as required. The liquid chlorine market is generally stable, and the price in Shandong is slightly increased. The overall liquid chlorine market fluctuates, mainly in narrow range.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on March 24, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise rate of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are formic acid (17.09%), nitric acid (3.23%) and liquid ammonia (0.51%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 6 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.9% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are isopropanol (- 32.92%), PX (- 9.09%) and DOP (- 7.50%). The average price of this day was – 0.84%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin of business association think that the market of chlorinated paraffin is facing many difficulties at present, and the pressure of reducing load and production is increasing. The atmosphere in the venue is light and the trading atmosphere is general. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the later period.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441#)

2. Latest price (March 24, 2020): 11975 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11500-11700 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11700-11900 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11700-11800 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 12100-12300 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11900-12100 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

Domestically, the supply side is still low, the production of silicon plants in Xinjiang is reduced, and the operation rate in Yunnan and Sichuan is not high. It is reported that the current social inventory decreased nearly 30% year on year.

Due to the poor expectation of the industrial chain terminal and the reduction effect of the market expectation, the domestic downstream organosilicon monomer and aluminum alloy industry chain transmission cast a pessimistic expectation on the consumption of silicon metal. Although the supply and demand in the domestic market are both falling, the price is dominated by panic sentiment and the traders’ willingness to store goods is reduced.

On the foreign side, the spread of foreign epidemic will affect more downstream enterprises and reduce foreign demand.

4. Future forecast: it is expected that the short-term operation of silicon metal will be weak.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continued to decline. As of March 24, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-benzoic method was 4800 yuan / ton, down 15.79% from the beginning of the month, down 31.10% year on year, a new low in recent 10 years.

Since 2020, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride market has been falling continuously. The biggest negative factor is the sharp drop of crude oil price, which leads to a sharp drop in the price of downstream petrochemical products. The market price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material phthalic acid is no exception. Since March, the price of phthalic acid has dropped 25.86%, and the phthalic anhydride market continues to decline under the influence of the sharp drop in raw material price. In addition, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient, the sales peak season of the downstream plasticizer industry is over, the procurement is not active, the phthalic anhydride manufacturers are generally on the market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is falling constantly. As of the 24th, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China fell sharply, the downstream factories returned to work slowly, the factory inventory pressure increased, the high-end transaction was blocked, the main flow of the negotiation of the neighboring method’s source of goods in East China was 4600-4900 yuan / ton, the main flow of the negotiation of the naphthalene method’s source of goods in East China was 4300-4600 yuan / ton; the main flow of the quotation of the phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality in phthalic anhydride yard was strong, coupled with the increase of the Do not buy the mentality of the impact of market trading market weakness, phthalic anhydride prices continued to fall.

In terms of the industrial chain, the market of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material o-benzene and downstream DOP has declined to varying degrees. The price trend of o-benzene and DOP monitored by the business agency is as follows:

From the above trend chart, it can be seen that the price of o-benzene and DOP has declined significantly. The price of o-benzene has declined by 25.86% since March, and the market price of downstream DOP has declined by 14.75% since March. Both the price of o-benzene and DOP have reached a new low in recent 10 years. By the end of 24 days, the execution price of domestic phthalic Sinopec had dropped to 4300 yuan / ton, and the import price of phthalic acid in port area had dropped sharply, with few transactions in the market and sharp decline in the price of phthalic acid, which undoubtedly became the biggest negative factor in phthalic anhydride market. The downstream DOP market price fell rapidly, DOP enterprises operated at low load, and the logistics and transportation gradually recovered in the near future. However, DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high, and the DOP market price fell sharply to 6000-6500 yuan / ton level. There was no good support in the upstream and downstream, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell continuously.

On the whole, the international public health events have seriously affected the price of crude oil. The short-term benefits of crude oil are insufficient, and the price is obviously difficult to rise. The price of domestic petrochemical products is lower due to this impact. Business analysts believe that in the short term, the price of o-benzene is difficult to stop falling, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will still slide in the short term.

On March 23, the PX commodity index was 44.00, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 57.03% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is declining, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, the operation of other units is stable temporarily, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, but the domestic market price of p-xylene has declined significantly due to the lower crude oil price. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 23, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by 36 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 476-478 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 496-498 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. Since March, the external price of PX has dropped by 200 US dollars / ton. The sharp decline of external price has a certain impact on the domestic market price of PX As a result, the market price of p-xylene fell sharply.

As of the 23rd, the main price contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 23.36 yuan / barrel, and the main price contract of Brent crude oil futures market was 29.29 US dollars / barrel. Due to the failure of the production reduction agreement between OPEC and Texas, and the forced delay of the US rescue plan, the oil price fell to the lowest level since 2003. Starting in April, the world’s oil supply will have the largest oversupply in a single quarter in history, resulting in a supply imbalance of about 10 million barrels per day. An exclusive analysis by resta energy shows that the global storage infrastructure is in trouble and will not be able to receive more crude oil and products in just a few months. Upstream crude oil prices plummeted, while domestic p-xylene prices fell sharply.

In terms of downstream PTA, the spot market price of domestic PTA continued to fall, with the market average price at 3385.56 yuan / ton as of March 24, down 20.26% from the beginning of the month, reaching a new low in nearly 10 years. In addition, the downstream polyester gradually recovered, but the PTA inventory removal speed was slow. Only from January to February, the PTA social inventory accumulated more than 1.5 million tons, and the overall social inventory reached more than 3 million tons, which is a historical high in the past five years. The contradiction between market supply and demand is still prominent. International oil prices fell, dragging down the cost of chemicals and market mentality. Some downstream polyester units were restarted, and the comprehensive load was increased to 82.43%. With the introduction of resumption policies and government support policies, polyester construction began to rise slowly in March. However, in terms of price, the price of mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell sharply due to the cost drag, while the lower price in the downstream impacted the PX market, and the domestic price of p-xylene fell.

In the near future, the crude oil price is still at a low level, the downstream PTA market price is significantly lower, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not significantly improved. Business analysts believe that PX market price may maintain a downward trend.

According to RIGZONE on March 23, oil prices fell to their lowest level since 2003 as OPEC and Texas failed to reach a production reduction agreement and the US rescue plan was delayed.

London crude oil futures fell about 4% to around $26 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose in April after Friday’s expiration. Ryan Sitton, Commissioner of the Texas Railroad Commission, was rarely invited to OPEC’s June meeting on Friday, but only hours later his call to limit production was rejected by regulators and drillers, and hopes for an agreement began to crumble.

Kremlin analysts say brinkmanship is under way amid a rapidly fading outlook for oil demand. Some traders believe that crude oil demand plummeted as much as 10 to 20 million barrels a day.

Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at axicorp Ltd., said oil prices could soon fall to $10-15 a barrel if OPEC and Texas fail to reach an agreement on production cuts. Any trader with the ability to store oil may be waiting for a futures premium.

Brent crude oil for May delivery on the London Intercontinental Exchange fell 3.9% to $25.93 a barrel at 7.37. It had previously fallen to $24.68 per barrel. That’s below Wednesday’s closing price of $24.88 a barrel, the lowest since May 12, 2003.

West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1 percent to $22.66 a barrel after falling to a low of $20.80 a barrel. Last week, contracts plunged 29% in April, the biggest decline since 1991.

The unprecedented impact of supply and demand is reflected in a series of oil market indicators. Brent crude oil’s six-month futures premium is more than $8 / barrel, the largest premium since 2009, and the market structure shows oversupply. A measure of WTI volatility surged 24% on Friday to more than 200 index points, the highest level ever. Meanwhile, hedge funds’ bets on the US benchmark index fell 26% in the week to March 17, though this could be a short covering before the next speculative shock.

Even if crude oil demand returns to normal levels in the middle of this year, 2020 will still see the biggest decline in consumption since reliable records began in the mid-1960s. So far, the biggest annual production reduction has been recorded in 1980, when the global economy was severely affected by the second oil crisis, with a daily production reduction of 2.6 million barrels.

On March 23, the fluorite commodity index was 119.30, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.42% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 142.43% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of 23 days, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3400 yuan / ton. In recent years, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively low, and there is less resumption of construction of mine and flotation plant in the site. The supply of fluorite in the site is still tight. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream remains high. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite site are in good condition, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is tight, and the downstream terminal purchases on demand, resulting in high market price. As of the 23rd, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3200-3400 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3300-3500 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3300-3600 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3300-3600 yuan / ton. The trend of fluorite price was high and fluctuating.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite slightly increased. As of the 23rd, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11520 yuan / ton. The high market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain positive impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, in recent years, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, some enterprises have not yet started, the supply of goods in the field is relatively tight, and the price of fluorite remains high. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal has increased. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The price trend of domestic refrigerants R22 market is rising slightly. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high. The supply of goods in the market is general. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturers stop more and the demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises rises to 16500-1850 0 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market rises slightly, and the operating rate of production enterprises rises slightly. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. In the near future, the downstream industry has increased the stock, and the price rises slightly. The downstream industry still purchases on demand, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rises slightly.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is rising slightly, the supply of fluorite is tight, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the near future remains high. According to Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, the market price of fluorite may remain high in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

On the MAR 23rd, spot copper price was 36560 yuan / ton, down 4.9% in a single day, down 26.79% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main contract quickly fell to 35300 yuan after opening low today, and then rebounded sharply to close at 37200 yuan, down 4.39%.

2、 Market analysis

London’s base metal prices fell sharply in Asian trading on Monday. With the spread of the epidemic, many countries around the world increased the number of anti epidemic measures, which raised concerns about the global economic growth slowdown and hit the metal demand outlook. Copper production in Peru, Chile and other copper producing countries has also been disturbed, while domestic resumption of production is accelerating, but the current refined copper market is still in a state of oversupply, and terminal consumption has not yet recovered significantly.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business cooperation believe that: in the short term, copper price is still mainly affected by macro risks and market sentiment, but supported by mine cost, there is still limited space for further exploration, and it is expected that copper price will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.