On August 5, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $42.19/barrel, up $0.49. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $45.17/barrel, up $0.74. Oil prices rose to the highest level since the beginning of March, due to the sharp reduction of US crude oil inventories, combined with the continued weakening of the US dollar.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, according to a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday; US crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels in the week ended July 31, with analysts expecting a decrease of 3 million barrels. Inventory data was positive for oil prices. After the report was released late on Wednesday, oil prices rose, and WTI and Brent reached their highest levels since early March.

In addition, from the macro level, the continued weakening of the US dollar is good for the commodity market. The depreciation of the US dollar will bring a certain degree of premium to commodities and also support the current oil price. Moreover, a new round of U.S. economic stimulus plan is brewing, which is still under urgent negotiation. Although there are still differences on key details, both the White House and the Democratic Party hope to reach a consensus on the stimulus plan within this week. The favorable macro level is an important driving force for oil prices to maintain a high level of consolidation.

However, in terms of supply and demand, the current crude oil market is still not optimistic. With the end of OPEC + record production reduction, many oil producing countries have the intention to reduce the scale of production reduction, and there is still a large risk in the supply side. Especially in the current situation of severe suppression of the epidemic situation, energy demand continues to be depressed. From the US EIA inventory data released yesterday, we can also see that, although crude oil stocks fell sharply, gasoline and distillate oil inventories continued to grow. Moreover, gasoline inventories increased for the second consecutive week and distillate oil inventories increased for the third consecutive week. This reflects that the downstream demand has not fundamentally improved, the performance of summer driving season is not satisfactory, and in the twinkling of an eye, the peak season is coming to an end, and there is a risk of further decline in gasoline demand. The decline of crude oil inventory is mainly due to the decline of import volume.

In the near future, oil prices may continue to consolidate. Under the background of continuous tension between China and the United States and the severe suppression of the epidemic situation, the current situation of the oil market is relatively complex. The supply and demand side is basically balanced. In the later stage, the relaxation and reduction of oil production in oil producing countries may bring certain supply risks. Therefore, we should be cautious and optimistic about the impact of the epidemic situation on the demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 06, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5833.33 yuan / ton. The focus of DMF market negotiation shifted upward, and the price continued to rise. Compared with the same period last month, the price of DMF increased by 19.86%, 10.76% compared with the same period last week, and the weekly increase was about 600 yuan / ton.

As of August 6, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 5500 yuan / T, Zhangqiu Riyue 5600 yuan / T, Hualu Hengsheng 6400 yuan / T, Anyang Jiutian 5700 yuan / T, Shaanxi Xinghua 5650 yuan / T, Guangdong 6200 yuan / T, Jiangsu 5950 yuan / T, Zhejiang Province 6050 yuan / ton, 5350-5500 yuan / ton in East China market, 5500-5700 yuan / ton in South China market.

The upstream methanol mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, the inventory is low, and the downstream just needs to be purchased. At present, the shipment is normal, the operation is cautious, and the narrow range sorting is the main in the short term.

On August 5, the chemical index was 671 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 33.96% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 12.21% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Business agency DMF analysts believe: in the short term, DMF digestion of early growth, inventory is still tense trend. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on July 30 was 35.46, flat compared with yesterday, 65.16% lower than the highest point 102.01 in the cycle (2014-01-09), and 18.51% higher than the lowest point 29.99 on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

In July 2020, the crude benzene market fluctuated. The ex factory price in North China decreased by 3.95% from 2531.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2431.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (North China) in July 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

July 1 3050 – 200

July 23 3100 + 50

July 27 3200 + 100

30 July 3300 + 100

In July 2020, Sinopec increased the ex factory price of pure benzene three times and lowered it once. As of the end of the month, Sinopec implemented 3300 yuan / ton of pure benzene in North China, an increase of 50 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month.

The crude benzene market is mainly volatile this month. At the beginning of the month, affected by the slight rebound of pure benzene market price in Shandong, the price went up, and then affected by the continuous rise of inventory, the market mentality was slightly poor, and the price tended to be stable. In the middle of the month, it was difficult to get support from downstream demand, and the price began to decline. In the middle of the month, the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises and pure benzene downstream enterprises had maintenance plans, and the operating rate dropped by 5% Around, crude benzene demand is expected to be poor, crude benzene pressure decline. At the end of the month, affected by Sinopec’s two consecutive increases in the ex factory price of pure benzene, the tender price of crude benzene recovered, the downstream styrene market also slightly improved in the same period, the aniline inventory pressure eased, the price rose slightly, the hydrobenzene market fundamentals and the downstream good led to the market price increase, and the crude benzene market entered the upward channel.

The bottom support of the pure benzene market was stronger, and the external market of pure benzene rose for four consecutive days. Although the port inventory was still high, there was some market purchase intention near the end of the month, which supported the price of pure benzene, and the hydrobenzene market followed the price of pure benzene. Crude benzol experienced the fluctuation of auction and price reduction near the end of the month, which supported the price rebound at the end of the month.

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units in 2020

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun Chemical Park 100000 tons

Shandong Derun Chemical Park 150000 tons

Shandong Jinneng Chemical Industry Park 100000 tons

Panjin Ruide parking 200000 tons, there are plans in the near future, to be determined

Shandong Huineng chemical 50% 200000 tons

There are still many downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises for maintenance, some of which have been shut down for more than three months. The units of Tangshan Baoshun, Panjin Ruide, Jinneng and shouchuang have been shut down. The restart time is still to be determined. The overall operating rate in East China is still low, and the demand for crude benzene is limited.

In the aftermarket, the business club believes that the pressure of hydrobenzene market cost remains, and the crude oil price fluctuates, which has caused a certain degree of market wait-and-see sentiment. In the future, the market still needs to focus on the changes of pure benzene inventory.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1883 yuan / ton on July 1, and 1900 yuan / ton on July 31, up 0.89%.

According to the business club’s big list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on July 1 was 2185 yuan / ton, and on July 31, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2202 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.76%.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the price of monoammonium phosphate rose slightly, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 85%. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The stable operation of Henan market, 55% ammonium powder factory quotation of 1900 yuan / ton, stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

In July, the price of diammonium phosphate rose slightly, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 53%. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2150-2250 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2200-2250 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2200-2350 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2250-2350 yuan / ton. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2400 yuan / ton.

In July, the market of raw material phosphate ore was weak and stable, and the downstream demand was insufficient. Therefore, the industry was cautious to wait and see. Some mining enterprises reduced the price of phosphate ore. In July, the raw material sulfur market was weak, and the price trend was slightly increased at the end of the month. Domestic sulfur market performance is not warm and tepid, downstream factories and traders are not enthusiastic to purchase in the market, follow-up is insufficient, demand is limited, port inventory is high, consumption is slow, lack of substantive information guidance in internal and external markets, and buyers and sellers are mainly on the sideline.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of the business club believe that the market of ammonium phosphate raw materials is poor in July, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is weak, and the market transaction is limited. At present, the price of monoammonium phosphate is firm, and the international market demand for diammonium phosphate is good. It is expected that there will be a slight fluctuation in the range of monoammonium phosphate in August, and the price of diammonium phosphate will rise.

In July, the DME market hit the bottom and rebounded, ushering in a rising situation. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on July 1 was 2193.33 yuan / ton, and that on July 31 was 2366.67 yuan / ton. During the period, the average price increased by 7.90%, and the maximum earthquake amplitude was 12.46%, which was 26.27% lower than that of the same period last year.

Regional specification: July 1 to July 31

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% 2110-2180 yuan / ton to 2330-2380 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei Province: ≥ 99.0% 2300 yuan / ton 2375 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% 2300 yuan / ton to 2330 yuan / ton

At the beginning of July, the trading atmosphere of DME market was relatively stable, and the increase was not obvious. Due to the persistent downturn of DME market this year, the price has been at a low level, most enterprises are facing a loss situation, some enterprises are forced to overhaul or low load production, some enterprises are limited in sales. In July, Henan as the main DME production area, production and sales were basically balanced, most enterprises did not have obvious inventory pressure, the mentality was relatively firm, and the price was stable at the beginning of the month.

In mid July, the LPG civil market continued to rise, which was beneficial to the market mentality. Under the downstream buying and rising mentality, the enthusiasm of entering the market was improved, and the market transaction atmosphere became better. Henan took the lead in the rise, and the prices of mainstream enterprises continued to rise. Take xinlianxin as an example, from July 6 to 17, xinlianxin raised 10-20 yuan / ton every day, from 2220 yuan / ton before to 2430 yuan / ton, and increased 210 yuan / ton during the period. The overall situation of the market remained active, and then the upward trend spread. Prices in other regions followed the rise, but the activity was not as active as that in Henan, so the increase Compared with Henan Province, there is a gap. During this period, the operating rate of DME market was still less than 15%.

Until the end of July, the market price became loose, the rise of dimethyl ether was suspended, and it entered the downward channel again. Due to the influence of seasonal factors, the current hot weather, the market terminal demand is relatively limited, the price rose too fast in early July, with the end of a new round of downstream replenishment, the mentality of resistance to high prices, have withdrawn from the market to wait and see, consumption of inventory, the atmosphere of market transactions has changed. Moreover, the weak decline of international crude oil has a negative impact on the market, and the strong situation of the civil gas market is not there. On the 27th, the ex factory prices of many regions were lowered, and dimethyl ether was finally affected by this decline. Take Henan xinlianxin as an example, the price was stable for two consecutive days from 25 to 26, until the price was reduced by 20 yuan / ton on the 27th, and then the price was adjusted again. From 27 to 28, the minimum guarantee policy was implemented, which protected the market price and prevented the low price from disturbing the market. Henan Province is mainly down regulated slightly, while there is no obvious change in Hebei and Shandong areas, and the quotation is stable.

In July, the civil LPG market showed an upward trend as a whole. During the month, the maintenance of some units in some refineries led to a decrease in the supply in the area. The downstream bullish mentality led to the active entry into the market. The manufacturers delivered goods smoothly, the inventory maintained a medium low level, and the price continued to rise. The rise in domestic gas was one of the main reasons for dimethyl ether’s rebound in July.

In terms of cost, the methanol market continued to fluctuate in July. Although the market in the first ten days went up slightly, the market in the last ten days dropped rapidly and the previous low level. In the first ten days, affected by the centralized maintenance of methanol plant and low port inventory, the methanol market rebounded, and Inner Mongolia and other places rebounded to around 1450 yuan / ton. In the late ten days, with the recovery of methanol plants, the postponement of the start-up of olefin units in Luxi, Shandong Province, and the temporary shutdown of srbon, the market mentality turned weak and the price dropped rapidly. The weak cost has limited support for the DME market.

By the end of July, the domestic DME operating rate was about 11%, which was lower than that in June. In terms of demand, affected by seasonal factors, terminal demand needs to be improved. With the completion of replenishment in the downstream, delisting mainly consumes inventory, and the market transaction atmosphere turns lighter than that in the earlier stage, and returns to rationality at the end of the month, and then turns to the downward channel again. Although the price of domestic gas still rose slightly at the end of the month, it did not boost the DME market. Looking at the future market, the current market for dimethyl ether has limited advantages, and the rebound is hindered. It is still difficult to raise the price in August, or it is mainly stable in a large area.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP was weak in the fourth week of July, and the prices of various brands decreased slightly. As of July 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of polypropylene, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price showed a typical cyclical adjustment in July, experienced three rounds of up and down shocks, with a relatively stable price range. At the beginning of the month, it was 6866 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, it was 6825 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.60%; the monthly high price appeared from July 9 to 11, which was 6892 yuan / ton; the monthly low price appeared on July 4 and 5, which was 6636 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 3.86%. At present, the propylene manufacturers have smooth shipment and no inventory pressure. Although the price of crude oil has declined slightly, the overall market in the lower reaches of the country is relatively ideal in the near future. The market price of propylene has been rising continuously. Although it has not reached the upper limit, the purchasing enthusiasm has been slightly reduced. It is mainly on demand and the market atmosphere is general. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will rise slightly again and stabilize in the near future.

The upstream propylene recovered after falling in the first ten days of July and is currently in the high range, which has cost support for PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market performance of PP (wire drawing) was relatively strong at the beginning of the month. The spot price began to rise on the 6th, with an average increase of about 250 yuan / ton for each brand. On the 9th, the drawing material reached a July high of 8066.67 yuan / ton. Then to the end of the month, PP (drawing) market performance slow down callback. In recent years, the production line maintenance downtime is more, the wire drawing schedule proportion decreased in July, the powder operating rate was also affected by previous news, but it was reported that new equipment was put into operation in the second half of the year. In terms of demand, there was a shock of imported materials arriving in Hong Kong in July, but it was difficult to accumulate inventory. On the demand side, the improvement is limited. At present, the downstream stock mood is not high, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the actual trading atmosphere is relatively cold. In addition, futures in late July fell, causing the market to fall with the mentality. However, at the end of the month, the completion of tasks of businesses was better, and the pressure of shipment was less than expected. In the near future, due to the good news of port arrival delay, PP (wire drawing) price is expected to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 31, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7833.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the domestic PP (fiber) price market in July was similar to that of PP (drawing). In terms of fiber materials, the hidden inventory caused by overproduction has been digested, and PP (fiber) has completely ended the “debt repayment” market last month. Although the overall disk helped the macro demand, the de stocking speed slowed down in the middle and late ten days, the pressure on the supply side increased, and there was profit yield at the end of the month. Downstream factories have a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere, insufficient follow-up of purchasing, and poor trading in the field. The recent extreme weather has delayed the arrival of imported goods, and PP (fiber) is expected to rise.

The market of PP melt blown materials continues to be weak. According to the prices of business agencies, the current domestic prices of PP (melt blown) materials continue to decline. As of July 31, the average quoted price of melt blown PP for melt index 1500 by sample enterprises was about 16733.33 yuan / ton. Domestic public health events were generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials decreased rapidly. At present, the supply of epidemic prevention related products exceeds the demand, and most of the prices have fallen. The demand for melt blown fabric directly downstream also shrinks greatly, and the diversification of epidemic prevention materials also has a certain dispersion on the demand for masks. PP (melt blown) has fallen with the downstream, the business mentality is negative, and the phenomenon of leaving the field is still more. It is expected that melt blown fabric will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: July domestic PP spot market trend is generally consolidation. Upstream propylene market volatility, the cost of PP support in general. PP (drawing) prices rose in July after callback, PP (fiber) big stable small move. PP (melt blown) demand weakened, prices continue to callback. At present, the favorable situation of domestic maintenance and the news of production line in the second half of the year coexist, and the terminal digestion slows down the storage of petrochemical plants. The follow-up of downstream factories’ stock preparation is poor, and the shipment situation of merchants is general. In August, PP futures rose due to the good news of the arrival of imported goods due to the typhoon, which boosted the rise of spot prices. Recently, the trading atmosphere has also recovered. It is expected that PP prices will rise further.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 5th, the spot nickel price was 111033.33 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.06% compared with the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.37% over the beginning of the year and a decrease of 5.19% year-on-year. Shanghai nickel opened at 110820 yuan, and then the price fluctuated and rose to 112990 yuan, up 1.92%. LME3 nickel closed at $14180, up 1.39%.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the epidemic situation, several major mining areas in the Philippines were gradually closed since March 18, and the ban on shipment was delayed from April 18 to the end of April. As a result, the total amount of Philippine nickel ore imported by China from January to may decreased by 32.8% to 5507400 tons on a year-on-year basis. Recently, the Philippines once again blocked Manila, the capital of China. As China’s largest nickel ore exporter, the Philippines blockade will be extended until August 18. The nickel supply is expected to support prices. In the nickel market, the tight pattern of domestic nickel ore has not yet been fully eased, and the price of nickel ore is firm. In terms of ferronickel, the cost of raw materials supports the price, the domestic production reduction is limited, and the demand for nickel ore is not reduced. The demand side is in the off-season, but in order to stabilize the market share and maintain the output.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: supported by tight supply of nickel ore, short-term nickel price shocks are mainly strong.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 31, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 16600 yuan / ton, which was 933 yuan / ton or 5.32% lower than that on July 1. The maximum amplitude was 9.51% from July 1 to 31.

In July, silicone DMC market showed a “V” trend

Since the beginning of July, the downstream demand of silicone DMC was not clear, the follow-up was slow, and the driving force of market rise was insufficient. Most monomer manufacturers focused on stabilizing the price. During the period, some manufacturers adjusted the DMC factory quotation to stimulate market fluctuations. With the arrival of rainy season, the demand for silicone oil and silica gel in downstream has been continuously reduced, and the market of silicone DMC in off-season appears. After several days of supply and demand deadlock, on July 13, the market of silicone DMC dropped slightly. Most monomer enterprises offered profits to ship and reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 300-800 yuan / ton. The average reference price of DMC factory fell below 17000 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the market of silicone DMC fell all the way. Downstream demand continues to weaken, silicone oil silicone shipment is not smooth, transactions are cold, the market trend is mainly collated and operated in a horizontal direction, the industry’s resistance to high price silicone DMC is aggravated, and the mood of wait-and-see is strong. As of July 25, the average price of silicone DMC has fallen below 16000 yuan / ton, with reference to 15866 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on the first day of the month, the price of silicone DMC has dropped by nearly 1700 yuan / ton, or 9.51%, with the low-end price falling to 15200 yuan / ton.

At the end of July, the silicone DMC market turned around after a sharp decline. Since the 26th, most monomer manufacturers have successively raised the DMC ex factory quotation by 300-700 yuan / T, and some previous low-end quotations have increased by 1100 yuan / T. during the period, some monomer manufacturers have adjusted the DMC ex factory price twice. As of July 31, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC was 16600 yuan / ton, which was 730 yuan / ton higher than that on July 25, and 4.62% higher than that on July 1. Compared with the price on July 1, the price decreased by 933 yuan / ton or 5.32%.

According to the business agency, the following is the DMC price and the start-up situation of some domestic silicone enterprises (for reference only)

Remarks on the total capacity, price and operation of the plant

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. runs 340000 T / a 17000 yuan / T unit smoothly, and purified water is delivered to

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng 240000 T / a 16500 yuan / T plant starts to operate, about eight floors of purified water are accepted and delivered

Zhejiang Zhongtian 120000 T / a 16800 yuan / T unit operates smoothly with tax included in purified water

150000t / a 16500 yuan / T plant in Jinling, Shandong

Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd., 80000 tons / year, 16200 yuan / ton, normal operation of the plant, and cash delivery of purified water

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng 240000 / T 17000 yuan / T unit normal operation, purified water tax included

Upstream, in July, the overall metal silicon market rose, up 4.13%. At the end of the month, the social inventory of silicon metal is relatively stable, the low-grade silicon stock is not much, and the spot is relatively tight. Some silicon factories are willing to stand up for price, and the low-cost goods are reduced. The silicon factories in Yunnan are mainly engaged in the production of orders in the early stage, and a small number of new orders are newly opened. The manufacturers have strong bullish expectations. Affected by public events, Xinjiang is weak in supply and demand, and slightly lower in the short term At present, domestic traders and downstream customers purchase well, and the spot market is relatively tight. Considering the cost factors, the manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price, and the silicon price is expected to be strong in the future.

In the downstream sector, at the end of July, driven by the rise of silicone DMC market, the price of silicone oil and silica gel also rose. At present, the sales of 107 glue were improved compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure was reduced. The profit of the stock preparation operators increased after this round of price increase. It remains to be seen whether the good trend can be maintained under the sustained high price of the market in the later stage, which is closely related to the upstream raw material price.

Organic silicon DMC rises and falls too fast, the downstream wait-and-see mood remains unchanged

In July, the market of organosilicon DMC rose and fell rapidly, and there were constant shocks. In the face of the current trend, the downstream enterprises were more cautious in hoarding goods, and the market transactions were general. In addition, the planned maintenance of monomer units in August was less, and the overall operation was high. Therefore, the power of silicone DMC market in the future market was slightly insufficient. It was not ruled out that the quotation of a few factories rebounded and fell again. But on the whole, silicone DMC market rebounded from the bottom at the end of July, which gave certain support to the market in August, and the overall market was slightly optimistic compared with the previous period.

Trend analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the cobalt price has risen sharply since the end of July, and the cobalt price continued to rise sharply in August. As of August 4, the average price of cobalt was 284833.34 yuan / ton, up 15.40% from the average price of 246833.33 yuan / ton on July 20, and 16.89% higher than the average price of 2243666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of July (July 1). Since the late July, the price of cobalt has soared, and the rising trend has continued in August, and the cobalt price has broken through the 300000 yuan / ton mark again on August 4.

The outbreak in Africa

 
According to the statistics of the African Center for Disease Control and prevention, as of 12:00, August 3, Eastern African time, the cumulative number of new coronal confirmed cases in Africa approached the million mark, reaching 957035. According to the data released by the Ministry of health of South Africa, as of August 3, the total number of confirmed cases in South Africa has reached 516862, ranking the fifth in the world. The outbreak of the epidemic in Africa has increased the supply risk of cobalt ore, and the cobalt ore in the DRC is mostly transported through South Africa. The epidemic situation in South Africa will also affect the cobalt ore transportation, and the driving force of cobalt price rising in the future will be increased.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, since the end of July, due to the impact of the epidemic risk in Africa, the supply of cobalt ore is expected to decline, which is beneficial to the cobalt market, and the cobalt price rises rapidly. The high cobalt price in August has broken through the 300000 yuan mark. From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand market has gradually recovered, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have basically recovered to the same period in previous years, and the production and sales of domestic mobile phones have also greatly recovered. 5g mobile phones have increased significantly. Although the demand of cobalt market has declined compared with the same period of previous years, it has increased significantly compared with the cobalt Market during the epidemic period. The overall demand of cobalt market meets the market expectation, and the cobalt market has obvious advantages The growth of energy vehicles is obvious, and the demand for cobalt market is increasing. However, the global mobile phone market is cold and the demand for cobalt market is bleak. The overall global demand for cobalt market has declined significantly, which puts a negative pressure on the cobalt market. In terms of supply, with the resumption of work and production in Africa, the outbreak again affected the supply and transportation of cobalt ore in the future market, and greatly stimulated the rise of cobalt price. However, it is not clear at this stage how much impact the epidemic situation has on the resumption of production in African countries. The supply risk of cobalt ore in the aftermarket is uncertain, and the logic of cobalt supply reduction supporting cobalt price cannot be satisfied. The support uncertainty of future cobalt price rise is large, and the risk of future cobalt market remains. More attention should be paid to the epidemic situation in Africa and the response measures of various countries to the epidemic situation, which may determine the future trend of cobalt price.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China on July 31 was 636.67 yuan / ton, which was 2.55% lower than 653.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 25.97% lower than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the overall sulfur market was weak, and the price trend slightly increased at the end of the month. Domestic sulfur market performance is not warm and tepid, downstream factories and traders are not enthusiastic to purchase in the market, follow-up is insufficient, demand is limited, port inventory is high, consumption is slow, lack of substantive information guidance in internal and external markets, and buyers and sellers are mainly on the sideline. As of the 31st day, the quoted prices of solid sulfur and liquid sulfur in East China were 630-700 yuan / ton and 560-680 yuan / ton respectively in East China, 550-650 yuan / ton and 500-560 yuan / ton in North China, 640 yuan / T and 640-640 yuan / T in Shandong.

The downstream sulfuric acid market is running smoothly with limited market fluctuation and no obvious price adjustment. At present, some sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong are under operating, with small inventory and good demand. It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will have an upward trend in the future. The price of phosphate fertilizer market in the downstream is strong, the market is optimistic, and the orders to be issued by enterprises are sufficient. Driven by domestic and export demand, the market still has upward space.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business club, the sulfur market is mainly stable for the time being, the port inventory is high, the downstream sulfuric acid is low and stable, and the sulfur demand is not well supported. However, the performance of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is strong, and the domestic autumn market will come in the later stage, which may lead to the increase of sulfur demand. It is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out and operated in the later stage, and the downstream market trend will be watched specifically.