According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of coking coal in North China on August 11 was about 1353.33 yuan / ton, down 0.25% from July 1 and 15.33% from last year. The price of coking coal is mainly weak and stable.

The commodity index of coking coal on August 10 was 99.88, unchanged with yesterday, down 17.81% from 121.53 (March 12, 2019), and 122.40% higher than the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, the production of coking coal plant is normal, the start-up load is general, the downstream wait-and-see mood is relatively strong, the enterprise shipment is slow, the enterprise inventory is high, the overall coking coal price is mainly weak and stable, and the coking coal price still has a downward trend under pressure.

Demand: the coke market is running stably for a while, with a positive market mentality. The overall shipment situation of coking enterprises is good, the inventory of coke enterprises is low, and the market atmosphere is good. Recently, the profits of coking enterprises are good, and the environmental protection policies are relatively improved compared with the previous period. The coking enterprises have a high enthusiasm for starting work, the operating rate has been improved, the coke supply is stable, the coking enterprises are actively shipping, the downstream steel mills are starting higher, the coke inventory is higher, the demand for coke carbon is better, and the market is generally optimistic about the future market. In recent years, the port has high enthusiasm. The mainstream quotation of quasi grade I metallurgical coke is 1870-1900 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is about 1870 yuan / ton. Shandong Port coke spot operation is stronger, trade price temporarily stable, port inquiry pallet increase, no transaction. In terms of inventory, there are 230000 tons in Tianjin port this week, about 10000 tons lower than last week, and 980000 tons in Rizhao port this week, down 35000 tons compared with last week.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business society, the current coke price is mainly weak and stable temporarily, and the coking coal price is mostly purchased on demand. The downstream coke steel game continues to be white hot, and the coking coal inventory is still large. Under the general purchasing rhythm of the downstream coke enterprises for coking coal, the coking coal inventory is still high. The comprehensive forecast of short-term coking coal price or weak operation depends on the downstream market demand.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of August, the market of acrylic acid was stable. As of August 10, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 7083.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with August 1. Taking three months as a cycle, the price dropped by 4.28% year on year.

At present, the raw material propylene price is high, the cost pressure is rising, the downstream maintains the rigid demand purchase, the market atmosphere is light, the inquiry and the transaction are limited. The commodity index of acrylic acid on August 10 was 35.52, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 64.48% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and increased by 44.57% from the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. $6600 / T, industry standard: Pu acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Jinan Yuanxiang Chemical Co., Ltd. 6500 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 6600 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 7200 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 9800 yuan / ton of refined acid; content: 99.7%; 2020-08-10

Upstream propylene, as of August 10, the market price of propylene in Shandong still rose. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. On August 10, the market turnover reached 7000-7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is not under pressure, the crude oil price is small and downward, and the downstream polypropylene futures market is ordinary, but the profit margin of propylene oxide and other industries is rising, and the overall market procurement is picking up, and the market is good. At present, the propylene market price has broken through the upper limit of the range, but due to the strong downstream support, it is expected that the propylene price may still have an upward probability.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current market price of raw material propylene is high, the cost is under pressure, downstream demand procurement, inquiry and transaction are light, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices were stable, but the prices of aluminum fluoride remained stable. According to business agency data, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on August 7 was 8833 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the month.

Recently, some fluorite manufacturers have reported that their goods are in poor condition, the downstream demand has not improved, and the fluorite price has dropped slightly. At the same time, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has declined recently, and the downstream terminal is mainly purchased on demand, and the purchasing sentiment is not strong. Impact on the downstream aluminum fluoride Market and weaken the cost support.

At present, most enterprises are facing losses. Some factories are operating at a low load. The prices of aluminum fluoride Market remain stable as a whole. Some manufacturers have slightly reduced the ex factory prices of aluminum fluoride.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of chemical branch of business society believe that: the price of upstream fluorite field is loose, aluminum fluoride manufacturers have a downward trend, and the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to fall steadily.

1、 Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic PA6 market continued to be weak in the first ten days of August, and most brand spot prices were reduced. As of August 10, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 10833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The price of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 fell sharply in the first ten days of August. As of August 7, the average ex factory price was 9416 yuan / ton, down 1.22%. Raw material pure benzene by multiple positive boost, recent prices continue to rise. But pure benzene port inventory goes up, restricting the market to pick up. Caprolactam analysts believe that although the price of raw material pure benzene rose, but downstream demand performance is still weak, caprolactam market is not optimistic. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be weak and stable in the short term.

PA6 continued the negative trend of July low in early August. The upstream caprolactam fell and the cost support weakened. PA6 consumption weakened, overall lack of good news to boost, price shocks fell. In terms of business operation, they prefer stable price delivery. Downstream factories follow up generally and have a heavy wait-and-see attitude. Their operation mainly focuses on low-cost replenishment and instant use, and their strategy tends to small-scale procurement.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: in early August, domestic PA6 market narrowly fell, and spot prices of various brands were adjusted. The upstream caprolactam had a significant downward trend, and the support for the cost side of PA6 was weakened. The demand of downstream factories is weak, just need to buy mainly, PA6 trading volume and consumption is weak, business mentality is not strong, there is profit reduction operation. It is expected that PA6 market will continue the weak trend in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

On the 10th, the spot copper price was 50131.67 yuan / ton, down 2.63% from the previous trading day, up 7.47% year-on-year and 2.24% higher than the beginning of the year. LME copper’s 3-month contract rose 1.07% to close at $6304 at the end of Asian trading. Shanghai copper’s main contract in 2009 rebounded from the low and narrowed the decline, closing at 50230 yuan, down 2.09%.

Domestic downstream consumption is weakening seasonally, and short-term supply is increasing. At the supply end, Chile’s equivalent producer gradually recovers supply. Chile’s national copper industry Codelco restarted smelter and mine projects, while China’s large amount of imported copper materials flowed into the domestic shock market in July, and the recent inventory continued to accumulate. Last week, Shanghai copper inventory increased by more than 8%, and the accumulated stock increased by more than 8%, making the copper price under pressure.

In view of the above situation, the supply gradually recovered and the off-season effect of demand put pressure on copper prices. However, the registered warehouse receipts in LME copper market fell to a low level, and foreign demand recovered. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market was stable in the first ten days of August, and the range of rise and fall of various models of products was relatively narrow. As of August 10, the average price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding mainstream offer was about 18750.00 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 0.27% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Recently, adipic acid upstream of PA66 has been suffering from low demand. The low price of last month was stable, and the spot price was adjusted narrowly in the whole month, with a decline of only 1.78%. In August, although adipic acid demand did not improve, the spot price was at a low level and there was no inventory pressure and accumulation risk. The profit margin of merchants was not large, and the price was firm. It is expected that the market of adipic acid will be stable in the near future.

The cost of PA66 is generally supported by adipic acid from upstream. The supply in the market was still at a low level last month. At present, the operating rate of various manufacturers is stable, among which, Liaoyang Xingjia still stops production, Huafeng Group has a plant operating rate of 80000 tons per year, and Dandong youfiber Technology Co., Ltd. also has half of the units shut down, and Shenma industrial operation rate is 80%. The operating rate is not high, diverting considerable pressure of excess supply and stabilizing the spot price of PA66. At present, although the support of raw material price is not strong, it is relatively stable. The shipment situation of merchants is general, and the actual trading is still limited. The inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories has recovered, and the purchasing strategy has been maintained with the help of users, and the improvement degree of transaction is limited.

Business agency analysts believe: in early August, domestic PA66 market is stable and small. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable, which supports the cost of PA66 in general. The downstream inquiry situation has increased, and the improvement of demand is still limited. At present, the operating rate of domestic slicing plants has reduced the pressure of excess supply, and the situation of insufficient supply and actual trading is coexisting. The domestic market is actually in the post supply and demand contradiction. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate smoothly in the short term.

According to the business agency data monitoring: this week, the price of lithium carbonate is basically stable, and the price of industrial carbon has slightly increased. On August 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39900 yuan / ton, which was 0.5% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 1.01% higher than that on July 7; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on August 7 was 44900 yuan / ton, which remained unchanged compared with the beginning of the week and increased by 1.35% compared with July 7. On July 7, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 35000-45000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 40000-48000 yuan / ton.

This week, the downstream demand of the market has recovered, and the shipment situation of some enterprises has recovered. However, the strong bargaining attitude of customers makes the actual delivery price lower than the price quoted by the enterprise. At present, the inquiry of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is mainly based on low price inquiry, and the transaction increment is not obvious temporarily. The price of battery grade lithium carbonate is stable this week. Combined with the recent arrival of imported lithium carbonate in Hong Kong, the rising space is under pressure.

At present, as the price of lithium salt remains unchanged, the downstream power market orders increase, but it is difficult to drive up the price of iron and lithium, and the price of lithium iron phosphate remains unchanged. However, the domestic demand for lithium hydroxide is less and the transaction is sporadic. When the purchase price of large factories is stable in the third quarter and the market demand is limited, the willingness of upstream price adjustment is low. The industrial market demand is relatively stable, and the trading volume price has no significant fluctuation.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on August 6, 2020, there were 14 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were polysilicon (7.48%), propylene oxide (4.09%) and dichloromethane (1.35%). There were 10 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with isopropanol (- 4.60%), chloroform (- 2.78%) and caustic soda (- 2.56%).

Lithium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that with the large number of imported lithium carbonate arriving in Hong Kong in August, the domestic lithium carbonate market price will have a certain impact. Coupled with the reduction of purification demand, industrial carbon price rise space pressure. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the future may be in the downward trend of stabilization.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 11000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 11000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was stable.

At present, the price of activated carbon in China is temporarily stable. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the domestic activated carbon market is generally traded, and there are few resources. Active carbon market price changes limited, terminal demand into the off-season, transactions only maintain just demand.

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is fair; the cost support of coal based carbon raw material is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy has boosted the activated carbon market, and the activated carbon market has improved.

Forecast: small and medium-sized downstream users of activated carbon mainly purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is slightly flat. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will fluctuate slightly.

Saudi Aramco, the Saudi national oil company, announced its official crude oil price in September on the afternoon of 6 June local time. It showed that the price of Arabian light crude oil for Asian market of the company in September was adjusted by 0.3 US dollars compared with that of last month, the price of Arab light crude oil for the United States was the same as that of last month, and the price of Arab light oil for Western Europe and Northern Europe decreased by $2.5 compared with August It is also that after five months, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of crude oil for Asian and European markets at the same time.

In March this year, after the negotiation agreement on crude oil production reduction between Saudi Arabia and Russia broke down, Saudi Arabia announced a substantial increase in crude oil production and a reduction in crude oil prices to launch a crude oil price war. After the re conclusion of the production reduction agreement in April, Saudi Arabia gradually increased the price of crude oil to various markets and reduced production to stabilize the international crude oil market Monthly crude oil prices rose the most in 20 years.

Market analysis shows that after the agreement on crude oil production reduction reached between the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, the international crude oil price has gradually risen. However, the Gulf oil producing countries are still under great pressure due to the new outbreak. Therefore, Saudi Arabia hopes to stabilize its market share by lowering the crude oil price. However, this action may trigger a chain reaction, which will put pressure on the upward trend of international crude oil price 。

Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil company. According to the usual practice, the company will announce the official price of crude oil in the next month around the 5th of each month, and this index has important guiding significance for the price of crude oil in the whole Middle East.

According to London, August 4, 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently said in a new update report that the new coronavirus epidemic crisis will cause global oil demand to drop by about 8% this year.

In its external report entitled global imbalances and the covid-19 crisis, the IMF said oil prices will be 41% lower this year than last year. The IMF said that the direct impact of low oil prices on the oil trade balance of economies would be different, reflecting the economies’ dependence on oil imports and exports.

The IMF’s forecast for the decline in global oil demand this year is in line with the forecasts of other forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The IEA said in its latest oil market report in July that global oil demand is expected to decline by 7.9 million barrels per day this year, but the forecast is slightly higher than the 8.1 million barrels per day drop in June.

However, novel coronavirus pneumonia cases and a partial resumption of some countries’ continued blockade of global demand for oil are continuing to intensify this year, IEA said.

The IEA said the average global oil consumption this year is expected to be 92.1 million barrels per day, compared with its previous forecast of 100 million barrels per day.

OPEC predicts that global oil demand will decrease by 8.9 million B / d this year and increase by 7 million B / D next year, but still lower than last year’s demand.

In its updated report, IMF pointed out that the sharp drop in oil prices and production reduction after the outbreak of the new coronavirus will seriously hit oil exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Compared with last year, these oil exporting countries are expected to significantly reduce their combined oil revenue by $270 billion this year.