According to the price monitoring, in the 43rd week (10.26-10.30) of 2020, there are 5 kinds of commodities rising and 5 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of nonferrous metals index, and there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that rose were neodymium oxide (2.15%), silicon metal (1.65%) and nickel (0.93%); silver (- 3.29%), gold (- 0.88%) and copper (- 0.81%) declined. This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.01%.

The overall fluctuation of nonferrous metals prices this week was relatively small, among which precious metals were relatively weak. The main reason was that there was no sign that the United States was about to introduce any fiscal stimulus measures to alleviate the impact of the new epidemic on the economy, and investors bought us dollars in succession, which put pressure on the gold price. In addition, the sharp fall of European and American stock markets and oil prices, the spread of investor panic also exacerbated the gold sell-off The overall performance of metals is poor. Rare earth neodymium series rose slightly, and the sentiment of major traders entering the market was warming up compared with before, but the overall activity was still not high. At present, most operators have great hope for the future market, and the price of domestic rare earth market rose slightly.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride prices rose in October, acetic anhydride market continued to rise. As of October 31, the average price of acetic anhydride was 5962.50 yuan / ton, which was 5.30% higher than 5662.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), and 0.42% higher than that of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price that the price of acetic acid first fell and then rose in October. The overall market of acetic anhydride rose sharply in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price rose first and then fell in October, and the methanol market weakened, with an increase of 5.13% in October. The cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride was greater, which was good for the market of acetic anhydride.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, the prices of acetic anhydride raw materials acetic acid and methanol rose in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose; at the end of October, the growth of acetic acid slowed down, the price of methanol fell, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise weakened; Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment stopped at the end of the month, the equipment operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers decreased, the supply of acetic anhydride decreased, and the supply of acetic anhydride enterprises was insufficient. In general, the increase of acetic anhydride cost in October prompted the price of acetic anhydride to rise. At the end of the month, the price of raw materials fell, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased. The shutdown of Yankuang equipment led to insufficient supply of acetic anhydride and increased pressure of acetic anhydride rise. The price of acetic anhydride is expected to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to rise strongly. As of October 30, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method remained at about 8466 yuan / ton, up 1.6% compared with the beginning of the week and 5.93% lower than the same period of last month.

On October 29, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 79.76, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 35.51% from 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and increased by 55.84% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, domestic market supply of maleic anhydride is tight, and enterprises stand out strongly. The downstream domestic demand and export side have improved to a certain extent, users have good intention to receive goods, and the overall market inventory is low. In the case of demand follow-up, the price of maleic anhydride continues to rise. At present, the solid anhydride in Shandong is about 8000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 8200 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 7900 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 7900 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 8700 yuan / ton.

In the upstream, the hydrobenzene market is less affected by fundamental factors, and the market trend mainly follows the supply and demand changes of the market essence. In the short term, the hydrobenzene market will be mainly consolidated. In the fourth quarter, we still need to focus on the impact of new downstream capacity and crude oil price on the market, which is about 3447 yuan / T. the overall operating rate of the downstream resin industry is about 40%, and the demand is stable Certainly, the overall inventory of the industry is low, and the orders at the export end increase.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of business club, the current market of maleic anhydride has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply and demand of the market is in a tight balance. In addition, the performance of surrounding industries is strong, and some enterprises are reluctant to sell goods. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will run stably in a short period of time.

The international crude oil price plummeted, the market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, the downstream transaction enthusiasm was not high, and the domestic oil product market price fell. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on October 30 was 5160 yuan / ton, down 1.15% from the beginning of the week; on October 30, the price of diesel oil was 4577 yuan / ton, up 0.07% from the beginning of the week.

On the 28th, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) routinely released US commercial crude oil inventory data on Wednesday, with crude oil inventory growth far exceeding market expectations and production growth reaching a record high. The international oil market suffered Waterloo. With the increasingly severe epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, especially in France and Germany in Europe, the government has restarted restrictive measures, forming unprecedented pressure on the expectation of future crude oil demand. This week, international crude oil prices plummeted, WTI crude oil prices fell 9.23%, Brent crude oil prices fell 9.06%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the recent lack of positive boost in domestic gasoline market demand, coupled with the collapse of international crude oil and the news of the decline in the guidance price of main business units for foreign production, aggravates the wait-and-see mood of the industry, and the enthusiasm of terminal procurement is not high; in terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather is getting colder, and outdoor operations such as road engineering and infrastructure construction enter the construction period, so the diesel demand is good, but the overall diesel market is supplied Should be sufficient, coupled with the collapse of international crude oil prices, diesel market prices are weak.

As of October 30, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 74%, and the start-up load of the refinery increased slightly, and the domestic refined oil supply was relatively sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, said: affected by the epidemic situation, the international crude oil needs to decline, and it is expected that in the short term, international crude oil will continue to be under pressure, and the domestic demand for refined oil will not be supported. It is expected that the price of domestic refined oil will continue to decline.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite dropped slightly in October. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2622.22 yuan / ton, which was 1.67% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and 8.53% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

In October, the price trend of fluorite dropped slightly. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the fluorite orders were general, and the on-site merchants’ shipment was poor. The supply of fluorite was normal, and the on-site price was slightly lower. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite market price has risen slightly. As of the end of the month, 97 fluorite wet powder price in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2500 yuan / ton, Fujian was 2400-2700 yuan / ton, Henan was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, Jiangxi was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and Jiangxi was 2500-2700 yuan / ton It fell back.

As of the end of the month, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 8400 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.36% in October. The downward trend of hydrofluoric acid market price has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite price is slightly lower. In recent years, the sales situation of automobile industry is general, and the trend of refrigerant market downstream of the terminal has fallen down. The demand for refrigerant has not improved significantly. The recovery of foreign economy is not obvious. The export situation of refrigerant terminal is general. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak. As a whole, foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price drops slightly. However, the market price is not available. The mainstream price of R22 in large domestic enterprises is 12500-15000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of R134a fell, and the plant operating rate of production enterprises remained low. At present, the downstream start-up is not high, and the demand for R134a is still cold. In recent years, the purchasing situation of downstream industries is general, and the price trend of fluorite is slightly down.

Generally speaking, the market situation of downstream refrigerant industry is general, but the recent market price of hydrofluoric acid is weak. In addition, the fluorite market reflects the poor market situation in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the fluorite market price may fall slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product was 4933 yuan / ton on October 26, and 4933 yuan / ton on October 30, respectively. The price market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin was stable this week. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5100 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 4700-4900 yuan / ton, and that in Henan Province is 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4500-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is 4300-4700 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4800-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5200 yuan / T. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5100 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of raw material market remained high and stable. The market of raw material liquid wax is stable this week. The demand for liquid wax in downstream chlorinated paraffin is limited and the supply is more. The demand for raw material liquid chlorine is good, and the price of some enterprises has increased slightly in a stable state, and the market price is stable and upward. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffin was poor and the trading volume was not strong.

3、 Future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the current market of chlorinated paraffin raw materials is stable, chlorinated paraffin shipment is acceptable. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffin is general, and most of them are purchased on demand. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China on October 30 was 3833 yuan / ton, down 34 yuan / ton or 0.86% compared with last week, according to the business agency.

On October 29, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3730 yuan / ton, down 115 yuan / ton or 2.99% from the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of October 29, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1139800 tons, a decrease of 44000 tons (3.72%) compared with last Thursday and 12200 tons (1.06%) compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang continued to be in a downturn this week, with an average daily shipment of about 5200 tons in Zhangjiagang and 5900 tons in Taicang.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 59%, which is 4% higher than last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 88%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of units, the new 300000 t / a ethylene glycol plant of Shanxi Huaneng is planned to be shut down for maintenance on October 20 for 15 days; the 100000 t / a ethylene glycol plant of Tianjin Petrochemical Company will be overhauled in early October, with the restart time to be determined; Sinopec Wuhan is expected to start maintenance on October 15, lasting for two months.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the recent sluggish downstream demand for ethylene glycol and the heavy pessimism in the market, the spot market and futures market prices fell all the way this week. However, due to the positive effects of continued destocking and the significant decline in overseas imports of ethylene glycol in September and October, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to rebound slightly in the near future. However, due to the end of silver October in the terminal weaving Market, it is difficult to measure the future market.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China at the weekend was 940 yuan / ton, which was 926.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.14% during the week and 35.58% higher than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the sulfur market in East China was stable and upward. The inventory of refineries in various regions of China remained low. Downstream factories and traders purchased on demand, and the shipment was smooth. The port quotation cost was high, and the shippers had no intention to ship at low price, which has certain support for the domestic sulfur market. During the week, Sinopec’s sulfur quotation in East China was stable, the mainstream price of solid sulfur was 890-1200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 840-980 yuan / ton; the solid-liquid sulfur price in Shandong area of Sinopec was increased by 20 yuan / ton, both in 960-970 yuan / ton; in North China of Sinopec, the price of solid and liquid sulfur was increased by 20 yuan / T, 810-830 yuan / T and 780-840 yuan / T, respectively.

On the downstream side, fertilizer use in autumn is coming to an end, and the export of phosphate fertilizer is also finishing up, and the market trading is slightly flat. This week, the domestic market trend of ammonium phosphate is good, the enterprise quotation is firm under the support of raw materials, and the market order is sufficient. In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic market performance is different. The price trend in Shandong is mainly weak and stable. The price of mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the inventory of manufacturers is small, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Aftermarket forecast: the sulfur analysts of the business club believe that the domestic sulfur market is stable and good at present, local inventories are maintained at a low level, phosphate fertilizer is stored in winter, and the market demand is good. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to rise steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of cryolite market this week has been stable, with the average price of 5733.33 yuan / ton in Henan at the weekend, and the price was stable during the week, down 9.47% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of cryolite remained stable. As of the 30th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 5200-6800 yuan / ton, while that in Henan was 4800-6200 yuan / ton. At present, cryolite enterprises start operation normally, inventory is sufficient, and enterprise quotation runs smoothly within the week. In terms of the installation situation of domestic enterprises, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 30000 tons / year, and the plant has been put into operation for about 70% of the plant. Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a full plant load and normal operation. The ice crystal production capacity of Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. is 40000 tons. The plant is in normal operation, with normal inventory and stable sales. There is no parking plan for the moment.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite manufacturers started operation normally, and the supply of on-site goods was sufficient. However, the downstream demand was insufficient. The domestic fluorite price trend decreased slightly this week. At the weekend, the domestic market average price was 2622.22 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.67% during the week. The fluorite market was weak. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, at present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is relatively low, the market supply is increased, and the downstream demand is optimistic, but the support from the cost side is limited, and the future market may remain volatile.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the cryolite manufacturers are operating normally, the market supply is sufficient, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the demand. The market transactions are mostly purchased on demand. The downstream electrolytic aluminum side lacks support for the cryolite industry. In the short term, the cryolite market continues to operate weakly and stably, with specific attention to the market demand.

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on October 30 was 403.78 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.80% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (10.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 16.02%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 19.79% compared with the peak price of (8.7) silver in the year/ G, down 11.29%.

On October 30, the average price of silver market was 4947.33 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.47% compared with the average price of spot market at the beginning of the month (October 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4281.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 13.05%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 68.12%; compared with the peak price of 8.11, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 26.25%.

Domestic market:

Spot price of precious metals rose and fell in Shanghai Gold Exchange:

1. The benchmark price trend of “Shanghai gold” in October morning and afternoon:

2. The benchmark price trend of “Bank of Shanghai” in October morning midday trading was as follows:

The price of precious metal futures rose and fell in Shanghai Futures Exchange:

1. Price trend of gold main contract in October:

2. Price trend of main contract of silver in October:

In October, domestic precious metal gold and silver prices were mainly consolidated. Affected by the external market during the National Day holiday, the prices of precious metals returned to the market after the National Day holiday. After that, the prices of precious metals returned to the consolidation operation slightly and fell continuously at the end of the month, with a slight downward fluctuation as a whole, which was significantly narrowed than that in September. According to business agency data, the monthly decline of gold spot price was 4.47%, and that of silver was 19.50%.

In October, the monthly decline of precious metal prices narrowed month on month, and the price of precious metal band stabilized.

See Jun’s point of view:

Short term precious metal prices stop falling and consolidate

One At the meeting of the European Central Bank, Lagarde was more pessimistic about the European economic prospects. In addition, due to the risk aversion sentiment driven by the policy of overweight in December and the approaching election in the United States, the monetary easing policies of the major central banks continued, and the price supporting factors were still in place. In addition, the geopolitical risk events such as the Sino US situation and the situation in the Taiwan Strait were frequent, and the precious metal prices were further reduced and stabilized The probability of horizontal running is increased.

2. After the downward adjustment in the past two days, the price is basically close to the bottom of September price, the downward space is narrowed, and the consolidation range is in place.