The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on September 29 was 36.78, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 63.94% compared with 102.01 point (2014-01-09), and increased by 22.64% from 29.99 point, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from September 27 to 30 (unit: yuan / ton)

Regional prices rose and fell on the 27th and 30th

3300 ～ 3350 3300 ～ 33500 in East China

Shandong area 3080-3150 3050-3150 – 15

This week (September 27-30), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong decreased slightly, at 3115 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3110 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 15 yuan / ton.

On August 14, 2020, the price of pure benzene of Qilu Petrochemical (Sinopec North China) will be reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the price will be 3300 yuan / ton after adjustment. Since then, Sinopec’s price has not been adjusted

In the last trading week before this week’s festival, the enterprises that had prepared goods had basically completed the procurement. This week, the market transaction was general, the price was temporarily stable, and the operating rate increased slightly at the end of September, and some devices were restarted. After the festival, there are still several enterprises planning to restart, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise. Before the festival, the price of crude benzene was mainly stable, and the tender price of 24 days was still maintained. The overall market was relatively flat, but the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was relatively large.

In terms of downstream, there will be about 2.5 million tons of new production capacity of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene downstream in the fourth quarter. The demand for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene will increase, and the demand support will be improved.

New situation of some units downstream of pure benzene in the fourth quarter of 2020

In the future, the business community believes that before the long holiday, the crude oil market and the external market of pure benzene are not supported enough, and the good fundamentals are limited. The demand growth brought by the stock preparation before the festival has come to an end. After the festival, the production of hydrogenated benzene units increases, and some downstream demand is released. After the festival, it is necessary to focus on whether the units are put into operation on schedule.

With the arrival of Jinjiu, the market of dimethyl ether (DME) has turned over successfully. At last, the price has risen to the highest point in five months. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on September 1 was 2210.00 yuan / ton, and on September 30 it was 2556.67 yuan / ton, up 15.69% in the month and 5.35% higher than that on August 1.

Regional specification Date Quotation

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0%, 2530 yuan / ton on September 30

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0%, 2620 yuan / ton on September 30

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% September 30 2490-2570 yuan / ton

At the beginning of September, although the market rose, the increase was not obvious. As the demand of the terminal market has not been significantly improved, the market supply is sufficient, and the main rise is small. It was not until July 7 that there was a significant pull up. Before that, due to the influence of seasonal factors, terminal demand was slow, and dimethyl ether had been in a fluctuating downward trend. The rise can be described as a successful reversal. The reasons for the rise come from two points. First, as the off-season in August has passed, September has entered the traditional sales peak season. With the gradual decrease of weather and temperature, the terminal demand is expected to improve, and the news is good for the market mentality. The second is also the main reason, which is that the upstream methanol rose sharply in September. The sharp rise in costs has brought obvious support to the market. Under this pressure, most manufacturers have a strong mentality and take advantage of the situation to push up prices. Downstream buy up not buy down the mentality of entering the market is more positive, market trading atmosphere is good, manufacturers shipping smoothly. Prices continued to rise to the 18th.

Until the 20th, the rise of dimethyl ether was suspended and entered the downward channel. Due to the weak decline of methanol cost and limited support for the market, combined with the collapse of international crude oil, which depresses the mentality of the civil market of liquefied gas, it follows the downward trend. With the cost of methanol and liquefied gas both falling, the dimethyl ether Market was significantly suppressed, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry turned weak, and more delisting was mainly wait-and-see. The factory shipment situation is general, the price falls weakly.

However, the decline did not last, and it returned to the rising line in a few days. At the end of the month, with the arrival of the double festival, the downstream replenishment demand before the stock Festival entered the market one after another. Factory shipping atmosphere is hot, low inventory operation. At this stage, the international crude oil rebounded sharply, boosting the LPG civil market, mainly following the rise. In terms of cost, methanol price is firm, and there are many favorable factors in dimethyl ether Market, so it will continue to be dominant.

In September, the cost of methanol rose first and then consolidated, with an increase of 10.12% in the month. The sharp increase in cost has obvious support for the DME market. Especially at the beginning of the month, the methanol market rose rapidly. At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market showed an obvious upward trend, and some manufacturers raised the ex factory quotation several times within the week, with the range of 50-80 yuan / ton. Methanol market quotation in various regions has increased to varying degrees, especially in Shandong and Shanxi. The main factors of the price rise are the favorable futures driven, and the favorable impact of the recovery of downstream demand. The methanol market in China continued to rise in June. Some manufacturers temporarily shut down their devices, and the shipment was fair, and the manufacturer’s offer was firm. Since the last ten days of the month, the methanol market appeared a turning point and fell slightly. Due to the rapid rise in the early stage, the downstream market was not able to follow up, and the storage and discharge demand of manufacturers before the National Day holiday fell down narrowly at the end of the month, but the price remained firm.

At present, the operating rate of dimethyl ether Market is about 15%, which is increased compared with the previous period, and the market supply is relatively stable. Terminal demand increased slightly, downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, manufacturers’ shipment situation is good, inventory pressure is not big. In September, the rising cost of methanol brought obvious support to the market, but the LPG civil market was abnormal, and Jinjiu fell again and again. With the arrival of the “silver ten”, methanol is still very strong at present. The terminal demand of LPG for civil use is expected to increase, and the price may rise. In the future, there are still many favorable factors in the DME market, and it is possible to go up in October.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose step by step in this month. It rose significantly at the beginning of the month and then stabilized. The shock slightly decreased. In the middle of the month, it rose rapidly again. In the second half of the month, the price was generally stable and rose slightly at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price was the monthly low price, 6989 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, it was the monthly high price, 7503 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 7.35%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising all the way, and the upward range is getting bigger and bigger. Up to the fourth day, the total price rose by 300 yuan / ton. From the seventh to the tenth, the first round of downward adjustment occurred, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton. After that, it was slightly stable. From the 13th, the price went up again, up 350 yuan / ton on the 17th. On the 17th, the price remained stable, and the price decreased slightly on weekends On the 21st, some enterprises went down by 50-100 yuan / ton. From Monday 21, the prices were generally stable. On the 24th, the prices of individual enterprises began to decline slightly, and on the 25th, they rose slightly. After several days of stabilization, the prices generally rose slightly on the 29th, and the prices were stable on the 30th of the end of the month. The market transaction is now between 7450 and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7480 yuan / ton. Most propylene manufacturers have no pressure on inventory.

On September 29, crude oil prices fell, slightly negative impact on propylene market.

In the first half of the month, the spot price of PP went up and then fell down, and the whole line remained stable in the second half of the month. The futures market declined slightly, which may have a negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market rose steadily this month, with a monthly increase of 29.18%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market also rose steadily this month, with a monthly increase of 37.56%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

The price of epichlorohydrin rose step by step in the first half of the month, then declined slightly in the second half of the month and then stabilized, with a monthly increase of 9.32% and a monthly amplitude of 12.54%, which had little impact on the future market of propylene.

The domestic price of n-butanol rose steadily in the first ten days of this month and stabilized in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 11.11%.

Octanol market rose steadily in the first half of the month, and remained stable in the second half. It rose slightly at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 7.47%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

This month, isopropanol market fell back and remained stable after rising, with a monthly decline of only 0.83% and a monthly amplitude of 7.75%, which had no significant impact on propylene.

Phenol in East China declined step by step in the first ten days of this month, remained stable in the middle of the month, and then stabilized after rising in the last ten days, with a monthly decrease of 1.81% and a monthly amplitude of 4.07%.

The price of East China acetone fell steadily after rising this month, with a monthly increase of 5.12% and a monthly amplitude of 18.50%, which had a limited impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: in a comprehensive view, the current propylene manufacturers have a small inventory, and the crude oil price is declining, but the downstream products are profitable, the operating rate is high, and there is a demand for replenishment before the festival, which has a certain support for propylene. The overall positive factors are more than the negative factors. Now the propylene price is at the top position, and the upward trend is difficult. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may go during the national day Stability is the key.

CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose in September. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 8230 yuan / ton at the beginning of September, and then rose to 8900 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 8.14% compared with the beginning of the month. On September 30, CIS polybutadiene rubber commodity index was 26.74, down 73.89% from 102.40 (2011-09-25), and 18.69% higher than 22.53, the lowest point on June 4, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In September, the start-up of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was stable as a whole, with little pressure on the supply side. In September, the overall operation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was relatively stable. Except for the shutdown and maintenance in taixiangyu in the middle of the month, the operation of other units was basically normal. According to the business agency, the 80000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber plant of Qilu Petrochemical Company is in normal operation with a daily output of about 220 tons; the first line of 50000 tons / year high Shun butadiene rubber plant of Shandong Wanda company is in operation, with a daily output of about 100 tons; there are three production lines in Sichuan Petrochemical’s 150000 T / a high Shun butadiene rubber unit: the unit is currently in normal operation, and the load is around 70%; generally speaking, cis-1-butadiene rubber plant is in normal operation The overall operating rate of rubber is around 65%. The supply side was basically stable and the cost side was promoted. In September, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of petrochemical manufacturers continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene in Northeast China of PetroChina was 8800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Downstream tire factories started to grow, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was supported. It is understood that as of the end of September, the operation rate of semi steel tire has risen to 70%, and that of all steel tire has risen to 75%. According to the business agency, in August 2020, the domestic rubber tire outer tire output was 77.104 million, with a month on month increase of 3.27%; from January to August, the cumulative output was 501.085 million, with a month on month increase of 18.07%.

In September, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene raw materials rose, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber formed a certain support. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene price rose in September. At the beginning of the month, the domestic butadiene price was 5612 yuan / ton, which rose by 6288 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall end of the month was 12.05% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that the current high price of raw materials, coupled with increased demand. Overall, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will remain high in the future.

Domestic price trend:

According to statistics, in September, the domestic price of p-xylene was stable. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4600 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4600 yuan / ton. The price trend was stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.30%. The external price of PX was slightly lower. The domestic PX market was highly dependent on foreign countries. The decline of external price had a negative impact on domestic prices.

In recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has put into operation a 600000 ton new unit, Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been running stably, fuhaichuang plant has been operating in one line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant has been running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been operating normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant has been running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit has been operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical Company has been operating steadily The operation of the unit is stable. The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is normal. Affected by crude oil price fluctuation, the domestic PX market price trend is stable. The international crude oil price fluctuated in September, while the external price of PX decreased slightly. As of the 29th, the closing prices in Asia were 512-514 USD / T FOB Korea and 530-532 USD / T CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX units in Asia was about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia was normal, and the closing price of PX was slightly lower Xylene market price trend is stable.

The international crude oil price fluctuated around us $40 / barrel in September. As of the 29th, the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 39.29 US dollars / barrel, while that of Brent crude oil futures market was 41.56 US dollars / barrel. The oil price fell, mainly due to the sharp increase of epidemic cases in Europe and the United States, and the market demand for fuel was broad All over the world, crude oil prices remained volatile, and the price trend of p-xylene market was stable.

In September, the price trend of downstream PTA market dropped sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market market declined. As of the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was about 3350 yuan / ton, and the PTA price in September dropped by 7.92%. In September, several PTA units scheduled to be overhauled in September were delayed, but the continuous restart of multiple units led to the PTA start-up load returning to more than 90%. The spot supply is still loose, and the intermittent high production and sales of polyester in the downstream has a very limited effect on PTA market. The market lacks of good, the market mentality is not good, and the buying and selling atmosphere turns weak. In the traditional sales peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the polyester factory was in a disadvantageous situation of loss and high inventory. The weak terminal demand led to the insufficient quality of “Jinjiu” and the poor downstream market. The price trend of p-xylene in September was stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business agency, believes that PTA will resume some maintenance units in the short term, and the maintenance plan of some units is delayed. In terms of demand, polyester starts to operate at a high level. However, there is a load reduction expectation in October. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the purchase of raw materials. In addition, crude oil prices are facing the risk of falling. It is predicted that the market price of p-xylene in October will fall.

According to the domestic market data, the butadiene price continued to decline to RMB 639.38/ton in the domestic market as of December, which was RMB 639.38/ton in the domestic market. In terms of enterprises, the butadiene supply price of Sinopec sales companies increased by 1100 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton compared with the previous month; Fushun Petrochemical resumed export sales in the middle and late September, with a total of 1860 tons of supply online auction transactions. In terms of market, as of the end of the month, Shandong butadiene market atmosphere was light and stable, spot trading was limited, dealers sent the offer to maintain at about 6300 yuan / ton, and the actual orders were negotiated; the butadiene market in East China was mainly cautious and wait-and-see, Jiangyin self raised quotation of 6200-6400 yuan / ton.

graph.100 ppi.com (500×300)

The external supply price of butadiene of Sinopec production enterprises is as follows:

enterprise

Price (yuan / ton)

Device dynamics

Normal operation of 6500 165000 T / a unit in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd

Normal operation of 65.012 million T / a unit in Shanghai Petrochemical Company

Normal operation of 65.012 million T / a unit in Yangzi Petrochemical Company

Sinopec’s 65.2 million T / a unit is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical’s 650015000t / a unit is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount of export

The 65.03 million T / a unit of Guangzhou Petrochemical Company is in normal operation, mainly supplied by each other and exported in a small amount

The 65.013 million tons / year butadiene extraction unit of Wuhan ethylene is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

External market: as of October 1, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at $795-805 / T, CFR China closed at $795-805 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 570-580 USD / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 445-455 euro / T.

The external price of butadiene is still expected to go up, and the supply price of domestic manufacturers is still expected to rise, which drives up the offer of traders and makes it difficult to find the source of low-cost goods in the market. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market after the festival is mainly high-level finishing.

Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

In 2020, the price of magnesium ingot will be in a downward trend. According to the data of the business agency, affected by the epidemic situation in mid February, domestic transportation was blocked, and it was inconvenient to trade. The manufacturers sold the products in advance, and the price was mainly quoted. After the price rose sharply, with the real trading operation, affected by the poor overseas shipment, the domestic magnesium ingot price continued to move down. From March to April, the prices of most domestic bulk commodities went out of the “epidemic pit”, and the prices of magnesium ingots failed to follow the upward trend and moved down all the way. In mid September, the price of magnesium ingot began to stabilize.

The main reason for the decline of magnesium price

1. The exit is not smooth

The export proportion of magnesium ingot is relatively large, and the influence factors of external environment on magnesium ingot price are relatively large. According to relevant data statistics, China will export 452000 tons of various magnesium products in 2019, accounting for 46.6% of magnesium output.

2. The price of nonferrous metals is relatively high in the early period

The price of magnesium was high in 2017 / 2018, and did not follow the downward cycle of base metals. In 2019, the ladder decline mode was started, lagging behind non-ferrous metals.

Main reasons for recent stabilization

1. The price falls to a low level

On October 4, the magnesium commodity index was 75.41, flat with yesterday, down 34.10% from the cycle high of 114.43 (2012-08-01), and 3.76% higher than the lowest point of 72.68 on January 10, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-03-01 to now)

In other words, the current price is near the historical low, and the downward space is narrowed.

According to the analogy lag theory, the price of magnesium ingot lags behind the nonferrous metal plate for 1-2 years, and the nonferrous metal has hit the bottom and rebounded

On October 4, the nonferrous metals index was 901 points, unchanged with yesterday, 10.35% lower than 1005 points (2012-01-31), and 48.43% higher than the lowest point 607 on November 24, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The price of magnesium ingot has a large upward space.

2. Output moves down

According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to July 2020, China’s Communist magnesium reached 465400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.66%.

Supply and demand side impact factors move down, cost side impact factors rise

In the early stage, the market price of magnesium ingot dropped to 12100 yuan / ton, and the profit margin of magnesium enterprises fell to the limit. Based on the consideration of cost side factors, domestic mainstream manufacturers have a sharp increase in willingness to support prices, and the influence of cost factors on prices is gradually enlarged. Different from profitable situations, the supply-demand side market is weak, which benefits buyers in the long short game, and the influence of supply-demand factors on prices is weakened in the near future.

In October, the price of magnesium may enter a period of shock platform

Based on the current low price of magnesium ingot, the profit has fallen, the willingness of manufacturers to support the price has risen, and the downward space has been narrowed. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the price of magnesium in October may fluctuate the platform period, reaching the bottom and waiting to rise.

Commodity index: on September 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.34, which was the same as yesterday, 20.34% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 2.96% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data showed that the polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was stable in the second half of September. The manufacturer’s production is normal, the quotation is stable, and the downstream demand does not appear the expected “Jinjiu” market in the industry.

Among them, the mainstream quotation range of polyacrylamide is as follows: cationic, molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) quotation 14000-15000 yuan / ton, anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million yuan / ton, solid particle quotation 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particle quotation 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid The quoted price of bulk particles is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18-20 million yuan / ton, and that of powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; that of non-ionic is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

For upstream acrylonitrile, the mainstream market quotation was 8450 yuan / ton at the end of August, and about 8750 yuan / ton since September. Plant performance: the settlement price of acrylonitrile products of Sinopec North China and East China chemical marketing company executed 8700 yuan / ton in September, up 900 yuan / ton compared with the settlement price of last month. Jilin Petrochemical’s first and third unit was restarted on September 19. At present, its four acrylonitrile production lines have been restarted. On September 21, Korea’s Taiguang Industrial Co., Ltd. shut down one production line of its 290000 T / a acrylonitrile plant in Yushan due to technical failure, and the restart time was not determined. The restart time of the 90000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Turkish manufacturer petkim in Aliaga continues to be delayed, and is expected to resume after mid October. Ineos’s 300000 t / a acrylonitrile plant in Cologne, Germany, is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance at the end of September.

From the perspective of the industry, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly since 2020. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. Since the second half of September, it has remained stable after a small fluctuation, and the amplitude of the shock is insignificant, and the demand has not increased significantly.

According to the market forecast, the market of polyacrylamide is basically stable in the second half of September, and there is no obvious sign in the golden period of “gold nine silver ten”. The manufacturer expects that with the gradual decrease of temperature and the arrival of the later heating season, the demand for water treatment products from environmental protection and other aspects will increase.

Commodity index: on September 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.34, which was the same as yesterday, 20.34% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 2.96% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data showed that polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was stable in the last week of September. The manufacturer’s production is normal, the quotation is stable, and the demand is not changed much.

Among them, the mainstream quotation range of polyacrylamide is as follows: cationic, molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) quotation 14000-15000 yuan / ton, anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million yuan / ton, solid particle quotation 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particle quotation 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid The quoted price of bulk particles is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18-20 million yuan / ton, and that of powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; that of non-ionic is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

In the last week of September, the price of upstream acrylonitrile was only increased by 50 yuan / ton on 25th, and the price was about 8750 yuan / ton. Plant performance: the settlement price of acrylonitrile products of Sinopec North China and East China chemical marketing company executed 8700 yuan / ton in September, up 900 yuan / ton compared with the settlement price of last month. Jilin Petrochemical’s first and third unit was restarted on September 19. At present, its four acrylonitrile production lines have been restarted. On September 21, Korea’s Taiguang Industrial Co., Ltd. shut down one production line of its 290000 T / a acrylonitrile plant in Yushan due to technical failure, and the restart time was not determined. The restart time of the 90000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Turkish manufacturer petkim in Aliaga continues to be delayed, and is expected to resume after mid October. Ineos’s 300000 t / a acrylonitrile plant in Cologne, Germany, is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance at the end of September.

From the perspective of the industry, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly since 2020. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. The market remained stable in the last week of September, and there was no obvious change in demand and transaction.

According to the forecast of the future market, the market of polyacrylamide is stable in the last week of September, and the manufacturers are disappointed with the market this month. For the future market, it is generally believed that with the arrival of late autumn and winter, the demand for heating and environmental protection will improve the industry, and there are some expectations.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on September 29 was 14750 yuan / ton, up 0.27% compared with the average market price of 14710 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (September 1), 1.35% higher than the valley value of the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.27% compared with the valley value of the average market price in the year (March 24).

In September, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose. At the end of the month, it fell for two consecutive days, breaking through the earlier shock range (the fluctuation range was 14500-14800 yuan / T), and then the price rebounded. Generally speaking, the price still maintained the horizontal trend.

Overview of electrolytic aluminum fundamentals in September

1. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum moved down in September

According to statistical data, as of September 24, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 716000 tons, which was about 39000 tons lower than that on August 28.

2. Downstream operation in September: the demand for strip, foil and alloy ingot is small, and the demand for profile and cable is weak

Aluminum plate and strip: the operating rate of plate and strip enterprises is relatively high, about 80%. In September, the automobile brazing plate gradually warmed up, and the demand for building plate, strip and decorative material was stable, and the tank material was not as good as that in the early stage, so the overall demand was relatively good, especially for 5-series and 6-series medium and heavy plates. At present, the production period of large enterprises with floor belt is between 1-1.5 months.

Aluminum foil: in September, the demand for electronic foil, battery foil and double zero soft wrapping foil was better, followed by pharmaceutical foil and cigarette foil. At the end of the month, Thailand announced that it would launch a safeguard measure against China’s aluminum foil export, superimposing the anti-dumping threat from 27 EU countries and India, 30% of the aluminum foil export volume was affected by foreign policies, and the export end was not easy.

Primary aluminum alloy: from August to September, the primary alloy has new production capacity, and the current operating rate of the industry is 60-70%. Affected by the favorable opening rate of downstream aluminum wheel plants, the demand for A356.2 alloy, the main specification, was good, which greatly offset the negative feedback effect of new capacity.

Aluminum cable: in September, the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid announced less orders for UHV, and the new orders were not as high as the same period last year, and the overall operating rate of the industry moved down month on month.

Aluminum profile: the demand for industrial profile increased slightly in peak season, but the demand for architectural profile was lower than expected, and the overall performance of profile plate in September was poor. Due to the EU’s provisional anti-dumping duty on Chinese aluminum profiles, the recovery trend of export is not optimistic.

3. The price of raw alumina moves down and the export of prebaked anode increases

In September, affected by the downward movement of overseas alumina prices, although the domestic upstream mines have strong willingness to support prices, the overall market price of domestic alumina still moved down slightly.

In the first eight months of 2020, the export situation of prebaked anode is good. According to the customs data, from January to August 2020, the total export volume of domestic prebaked anode reached 1072100 tons, an increase of 40.14% year-on-year. Among them, domestic pre baked anode exports totaled 153200 tons in August, with a month on month increase of 21.78% and a year-on-year increase of 131.7%.

In terms of new capacity, Gongyi Yinshan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd. has added an environmental protection and low consumption prebaked anode production line, which is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. Nanjiang carbon plant in laer City, Xinjiang has a capacity of 300000 tons of pre baked anode. The calciner was successfully ignited this month, and the trial production of baked anode is expected in October. Yunnan sotong Yunnan aluminum carbon material Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 900000 tons and a phase I construction of 600000 tons, is currently under construction. The 450 kt / a prebaked anode project of Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd. is under construction, and the specific commissioning time is to be determined.

Future forecast

Aluminum prices have been running sideways for a long time, and the upward breakthrough is weak, mainly based on the fact that the average profit of domestic aluminum price is still acceptable, the enthusiasm of new production and re production capacity is high, coupled with the price difference between internal and external, the original aluminum import volume increases, resulting in greater domestic supply pressure. Fortunately, the social inventory data shows that although the export market is still significantly down year-on-year, domestic consumption is good. This week, aluminum prices fell for two consecutive days, and then recovered rapidly. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the recent impact of external prices on basic metals is relatively large. In addition, although the consumption demand in September’s traditional consumption peak season has increased month on month, the market expectation of oversupply in the aftermarket has intensified, leading to the rise of the market’s expected demand for consumer demand, and the consumer demand is not as good as the market forecast It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will be weak and stable in October, and the price range will be 13500-15000 yuan / ton.