1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose slightly on the 21st, and the current price is 122583.33 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.84% compared with the previous trading day, 7.78% higher than that of the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.58%. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 120570 yuan. After the opening, the price was strong and closed at 121730 yuan, up 1.27%. LME3 nickel closed at US $16110, up 0.37%.

2、 Market analysis

The U.S. fiscal stimulus bill ushered in the dawn, and confidence in the commodity market revived. Overnight, lunni rebounded strongly. The latest closing price was $16050, up $400, or 2.56%, from the previous trading day, reaching a high in nearly a year. London Metal Exchange (LME) 20 Lun nickel inventory was 236832 metric tons, 510 metric tons less than the previous trading day. The overseas epidemic situation has not been effectively controlled. Due to the temporary closure of some mines due to the global epidemic situation, the agency predicts that the world nickel production will drop by 7.4% this year, and domestic nickel mines at the supply end are still tight. In the near future, the largest domestic electric vehicle plant will be put into production, or boost nickel demand. The downstream stainless steel supply is sufficient, but on the whole, the consumption peak season expectation in September has fallen short. Indonesia’s ferronickel construction step by step, there is a risk of incremental supply in the future.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: nickel ore is still tight in the short term, and the largest electric vehicle plant in China is about to be put into operation, which is favorable for nickel price. However, Indonesia’s new steel-making capacity is about to be put into operation, and it is expected that the short-term fluctuation of nickel price will be strong.

Price list of aluminum ingot

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot in East China market on October 21 was 14906.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.43% compared with the average market price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), 2.43% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.66% compared with the valley value of the average market price in the year (March 24).

In October, the price of aluminum ingot was stronger, and the overall situation was still horizontal.

Comparison of the arguments for the situation of electrolytic aluminum in October

Multiple arguments:

1. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in October is still at a historical low level

According to statistical data, as of October 15, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 719000 tons, which was at a relatively low historical level, 197000 tons lower than the same period last year.

2. The export volume of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products increased month on month in September

In September 2020, China’s exports of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7.7% on a month on month basis, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, and 395000 tons in August.

From January to September 2020, China’s total exports of unshaped and rolled aluminum and aluminum products totaled 3.561 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 813000 tons or 18.6%.

Recent policy factors

1. Limited production in heating season

Recently, the Ministry of ecology and environment issued the action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter of 2020-2021 in the Yangtze River Delta region (Draft for comments), and “2020-2021 for Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas, Fenwei plain” The action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter (Draft for comments) requires that the Yangtze River Delta region, Beijing Tianjin wing and surrounding areas and Fenwei plain should be targeted at steel, building materials and nonferrous metals The unorganized emission control of key industries has achieved the goal of reducing excess capacity and eliminating backward capacity in an all-round way, which has little impact on the aluminum industry chain, and the upstream carbon part is affected. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum and alumina has not changed significantly.

Aluminum price forecast in October

The downstream operating rate is relatively stable. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the price of raw material alumina and downstream export. It is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will enter a period of fluctuating platform. The price of aluminum ingots will be mainly stable in October, with the price range of 14500-15300 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 20, the price quoted by pet water bottle manufacturers was 5083.33 yuan / ton. At present, the price range of mainstream manufacturers is around 5000-5100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation is about 4850-5000 yuan / ton. The overall polyester bottle chip market is in a weak position, and the negotiation atmosphere is low-end, and the downstream is cautious.

The domestic polyester bottle chip market is weak. The downstream market is cautious, the demand is general, the transaction atmosphere is general, the market negotiation focus is weak, the number of new orders is limited, mainly contract customers, just need to purchase, buy as you use. At present, the polyester bottle chip in East China is running at a low level, the current mainstream manufacturers’ price is around 5000-5100 yuan / T, and the market mainstream negotiation price is 500 yuan / T At present, the price of Xiamen Tenglong is 5000 yuan / ton, Guangdong Taibao is 5150 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources is 5150 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai is 5100 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber is 5150 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment is smooth and the inventory is general.

The upstream PTA market is relatively strong and has been running for many days. At present, the market price is mainly stable, which slightly supports the pet cost, and has little impact on the whole polyester bottle chip market. The factory quotation is stable and the trading atmosphere is dull.

On October 19, PTA commodity index was 33.75, down 0.08 points compared with yesterday, 67.52% lower than 103.92 points (2011-09-15), and 12.16% higher than the lowest point of 30.09 points on April 22, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On October 19, the rubber and plastic index was 677 points, up 5 points compared with yesterday, 36.13% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 28.22% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analysts of business club believe that: in the short term, the pet market is weak and the trading atmosphere is dull. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic superior DMF enterprises as of October 20 was 8016.17 yuan / ton, and the domestic DMF market price continued to increase and the price rose. Compared with the same period last month, the price rose by 16.46%, 8.82% higher than that in early October, and the increase was over 300 yuan / ton.

Domestic DMF market is in the upward trend, downstream demand has increased, the shipment is smooth, downstream replenishment is positive, there is no pressure on inventory, strong rising trend, strong center of gravity, high-level upward shift of the focus of negotiation, as of October 20, the chemical industry quotation of Luxi was 8250 yuan / t, Zhangqiu daily 8300 yuan / T, Hualu Hengsheng 7500 yuan / T, Shaanxi Xinghua 8300 yuan / T, East China market reference price 8550-8750 yuan / ton, South China City The reference price of the site is 8800-8900 yuan / ton.

The price of methanol in the upstream is stable, the trading atmosphere is still acceptable, and the replenishment is required as the main part, and the negotiation is the main one.

The chemical industry index on October 19 was 761, up 1 point from yesterday, down 25.10% from the highest point 1016 in the cycle (2012-03-13), and 27.26% higher than the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to present)

DMF analysts of business agency think: DMF market is currently high-level operation, with strong momentum and maintaining upward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of DMF all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details)

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of power coal has dropped slightly. On October 20, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 620 yuan / ton. On October 1, the average price of steam coal was 611.25 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.43%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the average price of 621.25 yuan / ton on October 18, and the price was 7.3% higher than that of last year.

On October 19, the commodity index of steam coal was 74.76, down 0.09 points compared with yesterday, 27.42% lower than 103.01 points (2011-11-15), and 67.25% higher than 44.70 points, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of production area, Shanxi Province has recently suffered a coal accident, and the safety inspection may be strengthened, but the mine inventory is relatively sufficient, and the coal price is expected to fluctuate little. The release of coal production in the main producing areas has been accelerated, and the supply has gradually increased. At present, the production of some advanced large mines in some areas of the main production area has been gradually released, and it is expected that the coal mine area with increased production and guaranteed supply will continue to expand in the future.

Downstream power plants: entering the fourth quarter, the demand for electric coal is strong in winter peak season, and the inventory decreases rapidly. The centralized procurement of power plants leads to the rapid rise of coal price. However, the cumulative stock of Beigang is weak, and the inventory of main ports has dropped to below 19 million tons again, but it is still at a high level. The port coal price has been slightly adjusted, the seller’s willingness to ship goods has increased, and the transaction is rare. The mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal is about 615-620 yuan / ton.

In September, the production of raw coal was 330 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, an increase of 0.8% over the previous month; the average daily output was 11.04 million tons, with an increase of 530000 tons on a month on month basis. From January to September, it produced 2.79 billion tons of raw coal, down 0.1% year on year. In September, a small number of coal mines were shut down due to factors such as over production in main production areas, safety production, coal management tickets, etc., and the output of raw coal decreased year on year. In the northern heating season winter storage and import coal decreased year on year, domestic supply shrank.

Business agency analysts believe that: the domestic power plant inventory is at a high level, the demand for winter storage and replenishment of key power plants exists, and the inventory continues to rise. The power plant has a large inventory, but the winter heating season is coming, and the power plant still needs to replenish the thermal coal. It is predicted that the short-term steam coal price will still be mainly in the range of integrated operation, which depends on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market price fluctuated in mid October, and the offer was stable. Spot prices of some brands increased slightly. As of October 20, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8150 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic (Shandong) market in the first half of October shock finishing, big stable small move. At the beginning of the month, the price was a half month low price, 7503 yuan / ton; on October 8 and 9, it was a half month high price, 7530 yuan / ton; on October 16, it was 7524 yuan / ton, with a half month increase of 0.28%; the amplitude was only 0.36%. At present, the market transaction is still between 7480 and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the overall supply of some propylene units is still a little tight in the near future. The price of crude oil in the upstream fell slightly, while the price of crude oil in the downstream was slightly higher. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is at a low level, but most of the procurement is just needed operation, which is used and bought now. The current propylene price has been at the recent high level for a long time and has been digested. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will remain stable in the near future.

Upstream propylene since October high firm, the market is relatively stable, the cost side of PP support is acceptable. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market performance of PP (drawing) fluctuated slightly in mid October. The lower reaches resume work after the festival, and the demand is large, which has a certain support for the spot price. In terms of inventory, although the cumulative inventory of petrochemicals in recent years exceeded the expectation, the inventory level was still in a seasonally moderate position, and the port inventory was still low. The increase before the festival made PP gradually appear high pressure in the near future, but the industrial chain inventory did not continue to accumulate, the overall supply of wire drawing was also limited, and the spot price was still strong. As for the far upstream crude oil, the trend is general due to some production increase news, which has a certain suppression on the chemical industry chain. On the demand side, the current downstream inquiry sentiment is not high, trading focus on the low price. External demand is mixed, some automobile, bottle cap and closure industry demand is strong, film material market response is general. Analysts are worried about the new capacity that may be released by the end of October, which may have an impact on the PP market.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 20, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8316.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, there was a slight drop of 0.40%. The monthly high appeared early on the 14th at 8383.33 yuan / ton, and the overall operation was stable in the first half of the month. It is reported that the average operating rate of domestic PP manufacturers decreased by 3.48% last week. In the near future, Sinopec plans to shut down, Yangzi Petrochemical and Sichuan Petrochemical will restart, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly. In the middle of this month, the maintenance of polypropylene was reduced, and new units were put into operation. Business operations tend to be cautious, downstream side just need to prepare goods, mentality to wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PP (fiber) will be in consolidation operation in the near future.

PP melt blown material market in mid October big stable small move, domestic PP melt blown material market confidence is still poor. According to the data monitored by the business agency, since October, PP (melt blown) material has been adjusted. As of October 20, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14533.33 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable. Recently, relevant experts have taken the lead to consolidate the epidemic prevention measures and strictly prevent the rebound. The overseas epidemic situation is still deteriorating. Non woven fabrics used in medical protection applications continue to be sought after, and the demand is expected to rise. However, the competition among domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers is still strong, and the profits of the main downstream mask factories are seriously diluted. At present, the price of PP (melt blown) is relatively low, and it is expected that the melt blown material will recover due to the influence of demand expansion in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: in mid October domestic PP spot market prices are generally stable. Upstream propylene market high firm, on the PP cost side there is support. PP (drawing) supply volume is still not to, PP (fiber) market high firm, PP (melt blown) demand is expected to rise, the price is temporarily stable. At present, the decline of petrochemical inventory slowed down and slightly increased, and the trend of futures in the near future was not strong, and there was no obvious positive effect on spot. The stock situation of downstream factories is fair, the business mentality is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the increase of operating rate may cause the gradual increase of PP spot supply, and the market may be weak.

From October 9 to 16, 2020, the market price of crude benzene first fell and then rose. The ex factory price in North China was 2523.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2473.75 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly decrease of 1.98%.

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (East China) in October 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

October 9 3300 – 150

October 14 3350 + 50

October 16 3400 + 50

In October 2020, the price of pure benzene of Yangzi Petrochemical (Sinopec East China) was lowered once and increased twice. As of October 16, the price was 3400 yuan / ton.

This week, coking enterprises started to operate well. Coke has gone through four rounds of rising, with an accumulated increase of 200 yuan / ton. At present, coking enterprises have higher profits, loose environmental protection policies, higher operating rate in the near future, and sufficient supply of crude benzene. After the festival, the crude benzene market price first fell and then rose, and the pure benzene market fell after the festival, and the crude benzene market mainly fell. Since the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene began to rise. Thanks to the help of the downstream styrene price rise, the ex factory price of pure benzene was raised twice this week to 3400 yuan / T, and the hydrogenated benzene manufacturers followed the increase. However, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was still high, and they were against high price crude benzene. This week, the bidding price is only slightly reduced, and it is about 50 yuan / ton in Shandong Province.

In terms of downstream demand, the comprehensive operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was relatively stable, maintained at about 58%. Some units in Shandong had plans to start operation before the end of October, which had certain support for crude benzene price.

In the aftermarket, the Business Association believes that the current pure benzene market rebounds, and the downstream hydrobenzene unit will start operation on schedule, and the demand will rise in part. The downstream demand of hydrogenated benzene and pure benzene is good, which has a certain basic support for the crude benzene market, and the crude benzene Market in the future is mainly stable and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on October 12 was 1866 yuan / ton, and that on October 16 was 1883 yuan / ton, up 0.89% this week.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on October 12 was 2306 yuan / ton, and that on October 16 was 2313 yuan / ton, which was 0.29% higher this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate rose slightly, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 71%. Some enterprises overhaul, production reduced. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintained stable operation. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium was about 1850 yuan / ton, and the start-up was stable. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

The price of diammonium phosphate rose slightly this week, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 50%. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2200-2350 yuan / ton, that of 64% diammonium in Shandong Province is 2250-2350 yuan / ton, that of 64% diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Anhui Province is 2250-2450 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

This week, raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfur began to rise. After the double festival, the domestic construction of raw phosphorus ore gradually recovered, and the on-site trading was stable. It was heard that some mining enterprises might raise the quotation, and the new orders were sold at sporadic high prices, and the market was mainly wait-and-see. At present, after the high-end quotation of phosphate ore market, the trading is fair, and the procurement is mainly required.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that at present, the price of Monoammonium raw materials is rising, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the transaction center is up. It is expected that monoammonium will rise steadily in the short term. The quotation of diammonium continued to be firm, the domestic market was stable, and the international market demand was good. It is expected that diammonium will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (10.12-10.16), with the price at 9070.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 9340.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, an overall increase of 2.98%.

This week, the ex factory price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and petrochemical manufacturers was raised. As of October 16, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene of PetroChina Northeast sales company was implemented at 9400 yuan / ton. This week, the operating rate of domestic petrochemical cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant increased compared with that at the end of September. According to the business agency, Shandong Wanda polybutadiene rubber plant has been restarted during the National Day holiday, with normal operation of Yangzi, Lande, Qixiang, Qilu and other cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants of Xinjiang Lande fine Petrochemical Co., Ltd., with a daily output of about 140 tons; and Shandong Wanda Co., Ltd The company’s 50000 T / a high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant was shut down for maintenance from 9.30 to 10.6 days. At present, it has resumed normal operation after restart, with a daily output of around 100 tons. The supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased slightly this week.

The price of raw materials rebounded, and the cost was supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. As of October 16, the butadiene price was 6863 yuan / ton, up 7.86% from 6363 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, according to the monitoring of the business agency.

The start-up of downstream tire market continued to rise slightly, and the start-up of all steel tire and semi steel tire remained above 70%, and there was rigid demand for rubber.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that at present, the price of raw material butadiene rebounded to a certain high level, and the downstream demand has certain support, it is expected that the price of cis-1,4-butadiene rubber will continue to be high in the short term.

Xinfengming announced today (October 19) that with the joint efforts of all employees of the company, through the early stages of equipment installation, single machine commissioning, linkage commissioning, cold commissioning, hot commissioning and material commissioning, phase II of Dushan energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has put into operation a green intelligent PTA project with an annual output of 2.2 million tons. The PTA phase I plant with an annual output of 2.2 million tons has been put into operation on October 30, 2019.

This is a major measure for xinfengming to extend the industrial chain upstream, complete PTA self-sufficiency, further reduce the cost of main business, and enhance the comprehensive strength of the company. Also further enhance the company’s profitability, competitiveness and anti risk capabilities, improve the comprehensive utilization of resources, consolidate the company’s competitive advantage of polyester filament products.

According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic PTA capacity increased rapidly from 2010 to 2014, while the period from 2015 to 2016 experienced a period of de capacity and entered a stable period. It is estimated that PTA will usher in a new round of production capacity release cycle from 2020 to 2022. By the end of 2022, PTA has a total capacity release plan of 29.3 million tons. The new capacity mainly comes from the raw material matching of downstream leading enterprises and the expansion of PTA’s main suppliers. The era of PTA’s high boom will come to an end.

Statistics of domestic PTA new capacity in 2020 (unit: 10000 tons)

Change of annual production capacity of enterprise name

Zhongtai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 120 to be discharged on January 1, 2020

Hengli Dalian 250: 1.25 million tons of lines will be discharged on January 14, 2020, and the other 1.25 million tons of lines will be put into operation on January 18

2.5 million tons of lines will be put into operation on June 28, 2020, and products will be produced on June 29, 2020, and another 1.25 million tons will be put into production on July 10

Dushan energy 220 will be put into operation on October 19, 2020

Fujian Baihong 250 is planned to be put into operation in October 2020

Sinopec 330 is planned to be put into operation near the end of 2020

2020 is the peak of PTA production, and the production capacity has increased significantly. Since this year, 6.2 million tons of units have been put into the market, including 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai chemical, 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical phase 4 and 2.5 million tons of phase 5 of Hengli petrochemical. In addition to the 2.2 million tons of Dushan energy put into production today, the domestic PTA production capacity has reached 61.055 million tons. It is estimated that Fujian Baihong 2.5 million ton unit will be put into operation in October in the fourth quarter, and the 3.3 million ton unit of Sinopec is planned to be put into operation near the end of the year. If the unit is put into operation smoothly, the production capacity may reach 66.855 million tons by then, which will greatly increase the domestic PTA supply pressure, and the pattern of excess supply is still severe, which will bring pressure on the market price. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of October 19, 2020, the average price of PTA spot market in China was 3442 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 31.67%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that in the near future, the demand for downstream terminals is picking up and PTA devices are undergoing large-scale maintenance, and PTA prices are facing a wave of upward trend. However, the new production capacity feeding has a certain impact on the market. In addition, the production and sales of polyester in the downstream have fallen down as a whole. Only relying on the high production and sales of polyester staple fiber can not boost the market. It is expected that PTA market will continue to rise, with insufficient power.