In April, the domestic ethanol market dropped significantly. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 7012 yuan / ton on April 1, and the domestic butadiene market price was 6637 yuan / ton on April 30, with a decrease of 5.35% and a year-on-year increase of 18.79%.

The market situation of each region was weak, the market situation of northeast, East China and Henan was low, the honey ethanol market of South China and Guangxi was on the sidelines, the ethanol market of Dongguan was weak, the turnover of Anhui was light, the turnover of Sichuan was weak, and the ethanol market of Yunnan was down.

From the perspective of raw material corn, the raw material corn market went down this month, the grass-roots grain in Northeast China was undercut, some farmers were busy with spring ploughing and had no time to sell grain, in addition, the natural dry grain was not in a hurry to ship, the early output tide had ended, the periodic circulation reduction continued to boost the market, and the short-term market was supported by the bottom. At the same time, corn imports increased significantly year on year. From the demand point of view, the ethyl acetate enterprises were under started, the demand for other chemical industries did not increase significantly, the recovery of terminal enterprises was general, and the downstream procurement was mainly just needed due to the approaching holiday this month.

Logistics prices rose slightly this month. By the end of the month, the price from Jilin to Shandong was 300 yuan / ton, while that from Heilongjiang to northern Jiangsu was 400 yuan / ton. Shipping from Thailand to East China will be reduced by US $2-4 per ton.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Henan Province Top grade 6850-6880 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 8100-8150 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6300-6400 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6650 yuan / ton including tax

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Cassava alcohol 6700-7000 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol About 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7550-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province General level 6450-6550 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6850-7400 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6600-6700 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6650 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade About 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province anhydrous About 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Sichuan area Corn alcohol About 7500-7600 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan Province Molasses alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Yunnan Province Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

With the increase of logistics price, the price of low-cost goods in Northeast China to consumer areas has no advantage. But at present, most corn ethanol enterprises have lost money. Business community ethanol analysts expect that under the influence of short-term market supply exceeding demand, the price will be weak and the domestic ethanol market will be volatile.

“Aluminum price” creates new heights

In mid and late April, the spot price of domestic standard aluminum ingots kept rising, breaking through 18000 yuan / ton, reaching new highs.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market in April 30 was 18850 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. In April alone, aluminum prices rose 9.11% in a single month.

Two rounds of policy superposition industry capacity ceiling basically formed

In 2017, affected by the supply side reform policy, the backward production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was gradually withdrawn from the historical stage by replacement or elimination, and the ceiling Market of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity was initially estimated at about 44 million tons.

According to the news in early April 2021, the relevant departments of the state have studied the “implementation plan for carbon peaking in non ferrous metal industry” (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”) and are seeking the opinions of industry associations and enterprises《 The plan initially proposes that the non-ferrous metal industry should strive to achieve the peak carbon by 2025 and reduce carbon by 40% by 2040, which will be at least five years ahead of the national peak carbon. ”

The aluminum industry has reached the peak carbon target, which has a significant impact on the new capacity and the existing capacity layout. The market expects that the “ceiling” of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity of 45 million tons will gradually form.

Judging from the spot price history of aluminum ingots, the price of aluminum ingot is affected by the supply side reform factors. After reaching the high point in the second half of 2017, it gradually entered the downlink period, from the wave band of 16000 yuan / ton above September 2017, and the lowest position appeared in the collapse period caused by COVID-19 in 2020. The aluminum price once fell to 11200 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to 14000-15000 yuan / ton. In the last ten days of November 2020, the aluminum price will continue to strengthen again, breaking through the high level in 2017, opening a new situation of repeatedly reaching new highs. Although there was a short-term correction, with the influence of the policy news of carbon peak and carbon neutral, and the macro favorable factors such as the inflation expectation in the capital market, the commodity price was more emotional, and the aluminum price was rising.

The long-term trend of aluminum price is as follows:

Rising demand expectations

In the first quarter of 2021, China’s aluminum production increased by 13.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. In March, China’s total aluminum output was 5.367 million tons, up 17.6% year on year.

Looking forward to the second quarter, the market expects that domestic aluminum ingot consumption demand will continue to improve seasonally. First, the overseas market, European and American manufacturing industry continued to recover, and the demand for industrial products recovered. Since April, Europe and Alcoa have reached the highest levels since June 2019 and may 2018 respectively; Second, according to the social inventory data of the domestic market in April, the current destocking is obvious, and the total inventory is at a low level in the same period of recent years. Under the influence of supply constraints, the supply in the spot market is tightening, and the expectation is strengthened.

Recent rising logic

The rise of the market in April is mainly based on three factors:

First, the supply side capacity “ceiling” is expected to be strengthened. Due to the impact of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the new capacity of aluminum industry has been restricted in recent years. The market expects that the policy requirements or strict control of electrolytic aluminum capacity of 45 million tons “ceiling” will be implemented. Recently, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have banned illegal new capacity projects in electrolytic aluminum industry, and the new capacity is limited.

Second, the demand side of aluminum consumer side support is strong, aluminum social inventory is relatively low year on year.

Third, the positive macro aspects such as inflation expectations in the capital market have boosted the dominance of the financial attributes of commodities.

Future forecast

To sum up, under the high price and high profit, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum plants are basically in full production status, and the operating rate growth space is limited. Under the domestic carbon neutral target, with the implementation of China’s aluminum industry to accelerate the carbon peak target and the promotion of the local government’s “double control” policy of energy consumption, as a high-energy consumption industry, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will be limited. Recently, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory turned into a downward trend, and the traditional consumption peak season gradually appeared, which strongly supported the aluminum price.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market fell slightly in April. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2980 yuan / ton, 1.0% lower than the price of 3010 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 29.57% higher than the same period last year.

In April, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market dropped slightly. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, the goods on the site were in general, the manufacturers’ inventory increased, and the prices on the site dropped slightly. In the near future, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still more production stoppages in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start to work normally. The market price of ammonium nitrate declines slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose sharply in April. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2300 yuan / ton, up 12.50% from 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of Xinghua is 2150 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2300 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2400 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market has improved. The price trend of nitric acid market has risen sharply in April, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has a limited decline.

In April, the price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market declined slightly. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3890 yuan / ton, down 1.19% from 3926.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic liquid ammonia Market in various regions decreased slightly, mainly due to the increase of supply. Some maintenance devices in Henan, Hubei and Hunan were restarted, and the spot goods on the site increased. The pressure of domestic liquid ammonia supply and demand was not great, and some large factories resumed work. The contradiction of tight supply was eased, and the demand remained stable. In addition, the inventory pressure of goods source in Shandong area is acceptable, but the area is in the accumulation stage, the liquid ammonia discharged by manufacturers is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure of the area is stable. A small decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has dropped slightly.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the price of raw material market is high, which has a certain supporting role for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community think that the price of ammonium nitrate Market is stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose continuously in the first ten days of this month, and fell sharply in the second ten days. The price at the beginning of the month is the monthly low price, 7944 yuan / ton, and 8046 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.28%; April 24 is the monthly high price, 8619 yuan / ton, the monthly amplitude is 8.49%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The price rose steadily on the 6th, rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton on the 16th, stabilized on the 23rd, fell about 50 yuan / ton on the 26th, fell about 150 yuan / ton on the 27th and 28th, and dropped 150-350 yuan / ton on the 29th. Today, most of the prices are stable, The current market turnover is between 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8000 yuan / ton. On April 20, the external market of propylene in the United States dropped significantly again, which may have a certain impact on the domestic market. Asian propylene prices remained stable on the 29th, with limited impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.

Recently, the international crude oil market has witnessed constant events, and the price has fluctuated. The crude oil price rose significantly on April 28 and 29, which has a certain positive impact on the propylene market.

This month, PP declined slightly and then rebounded slightly, with a monthly decline of 3.34% and a monthly amplitude of 4.80%, which had little negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid rebounded after a decline this month, with a monthly decline of only 1.92% and a monthly amplitude of 8.31%.

In the first ten days of this month, propylene oxide was mainly stable, occasionally declined and then recovered. In the last ten days, it rose, with a monthly increase of 3.28% and a monthly amplitude of 5.98%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

The epichlorohydrin market was stable in the first ten days of this month, rose sharply in the middle of this month, and fell steadily in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 19.47% and a monthly amplitude of 30.00%, which played an obvious role in the rise of propylene.

In the first half of this month, the domestic n-butanol price was generally stable with occasional decline, and rose steadily in the second half of this month, with a monthly increase of 18.18% and a monthly amplitude of 23.81%, which had a great positive impact on the propylene market.

This month, the trend of ISO octanol is similar to that of n-butanol. It is also stable in the first half of the month, with occasional decline. It rises steadily in the second half of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.30% and a monthly amplitude of 17.36%. It also has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Isopropanol rose steadily after falling back in the first ten days of this month, with a monthly rise of 3.35% and a monthly amplitude of 5.30%, which had little positive effect on propylene.

The price of phenol in East China rose by 4.45% this month, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.

The quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market fell slightly, with a monthly decline of 5.17%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: Generally speaking, there are not many domestic stocks, some units are overhauled, the crude oil market is rising significantly, the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the market is more than empty. Polypropylene futures are general. It is expected that propylene will stop falling after May day, and there is a possibility of stopping falling and rising.

Commodity index: the PCL commodity index was 92.74 on April 29, which was flat with yesterday, down 14.93% from 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, up 9.99% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)

The monitoring shows that since the start of 2021, the solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) of China’s domestic market has declined and continued to weaken after a short-term rise. On February 18, the main domestic mainstream was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on March 30 was 1718.57 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 4.18%; In April, the main market of polyaluminium chloride in Henan Province of China was slightly fluctuating, with an amplitude of less than 1%, with little change. By April 29, the main quotation was 1717.14 yuan / ton, so far, the overall decline was 4.16%.

Two and a half months later, it is very unstable for the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area. Firstly, the demand of the year is slowly restored, and the start-up of the production is also started on land and land; By the end of April, local manufacturers have entered the intermittent and repeated production stop production production partial production stop circle. First, the water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province basically stopped production and rectification, and by mid April, the manufacturers resumed production on a large scale. During this period, due to the temporary tension of some brands of some manufacturers, the market was slightly increased; After the resumption of production, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, weak market demand and a slight decrease in the market. Overall, the manufacturers have been repeatedly stopped and produced repeatedly due to strict environmental protection inspection during this period. Some small enterprises are unable to support due to production stoppage and demand. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict inspection of environmental protection; Production does not forget to keep environmental protection, and the production enterprises have a long way to go.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the data of business society show that from February 18 to March, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China rose sharply from February 18 to March, with the mainstream market quotation of 180 yuan / ton on February 18, about 205 yuan / ton on March 22, and nearly 15% monthly increase. After that, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose 17% this month, with strong cost support,; The lower silica support is less than 1% higher than the monthly price fluctuation, the support of ammonium chloride is strong and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinsan” hydrochloric acid gradually increases, and the hydrochloric acid fluctuates up 15% in March. On the day of 31, hydrochloric acid rose by more than 40 yuan / ton. In April, hydrochloric acid in North China rose in a volatile manner. On April 1, the main market quotation was 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, falling in a single month, about 6.85%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak; However, the monthly price fluctuation of lower silica is less than 1%, and ammonium chloride is down 1.34% this month. The overall high level is consolidation, which is weak for hydrochloric acid. In conclusion, it is estimated that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to small amplitude of shock in the near future. Since then, the overall increase is nearly 26%.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In February, the civil gas market in Shandong Province was staged in the Spring Festival, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the main trend was weak downward, and the post festival market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LNG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route, and the civil gas market in Shandong Province increased significantly; But in mid March, it began to go down continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market was not continued; Since the end of March, the LNG market is dominated by favorable factors and enters the upward channel again. In April, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price rose continuously, especially after the small and long holiday in Qingming, the civil gas market in Shandong began to push up continuously, with a large margin; But in late April, the civil LPG market showed “slide ride”, and the price fell 5-6% and remained stable basically. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the rise in late and early April is significantly different. Although the price is down a part from the early ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream market atmosphere has recovered, the manufacturers are smooth to ship, most of the inventory is in controllable level. The market is still in a weak position, and the international crude oil is relatively weak. In addition, the weather temperature increases, and market demand is expected to weaken. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on February 18, the mainstream quotation of LNG Shandong market was 3900 yuan / ton, while that of April 28 daily was about 4173 yuan / ton, up about 15%.

Downstream demand: since then, the downstream demand has been general, not warm or hot. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two conferences this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements for environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental protection inspection, and many industries have stopped production and rectification from time to time. Many enterprises need to rectify. In terms of environmental protection, there should be certain demand for environmental protection products. Water treatment products have their application limitations, The demand for air purification products may be slightly lower than that of atmospheric emission purification products. According to several enterprises, the demand this year has been warm and hot, and the production is constantly suspended and rectified. The pressure of enterprises is relatively high, and some small enterprises may be eliminated.

Post market forecast: business analysis believes that the price of raw materials has been rising in the context of inflation caused by the release of water from the Central Bank of the world. In recent years, the situation of epidemic in some overseas areas is serious, and under the influence of multiple international factors such as Sino US relations, there may be stage differentiation in various industries. For the chemical industry, under the environmental protection policy requirements of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” in 2021, the chemical industry will face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later period, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will be raised; Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical threshold is constantly rising; The production stop and rectification action is frequent, and the supply side can not be affected. In the case of large inventory consumption, the price has been expected to rise. In conclusion, in the future market, the price of polychloride will be stable under the condition that the current demand is general and the inventory is sufficient; The long-term environmental inspection will inevitably aggravate the survival of the fittest of production enterprises. Only by improving the technical level as soon as possible and meeting the environmental protection requirements as soon as possible, can enterprises maintain long-term and effective development.

Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index was 94.20 on April 28, which was flat with yesterday, down 12.07% from 107.13 (may 08, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and 13.64% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)

Data show that since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area will resume production after the year. In the next month, due to the huge increase of acrylonitrile cost, the market of polyacrylamide will go up all the way, with an upward range of more than 10%; At the end of March, it slightly corrected, and the range dropped to within 10%. In the middle of April, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area continued to stop production due to environmental protection inspection started in mid March, and went through the repeated production stoppage and resumption of production intermittently, and finally resumed production in late April. Polyacrylamide has been in a small upward trend since April. The price of polyacrylamide cations in China (molecular weight 12 million and ionic degree 10-30) has been adjusted from 15116.67 yuan / ton to 15416.67 yuan / ton, with a range of 1.98%. Among them, the continuous production of production in the middle of April caused some manufacturers’ shortage of goods. Although the overall inventory is relatively sufficient and the demand is not warm, the local shortage of goods also has a certain impact on the market. The highest price after the year was about 15433 yuan / ton, the lowest point was 13883 yuan / ton when the work was resumed after the year, with a phased increase of 11%.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, and the domestic price has reached the highest level in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 is 12100 yuan / ton, 16500 yuan / ton in March 10 daily, up 4500 yuan / T, with a range of 36%; However, since mid March, influenced by the lower upstream price, the price of the upstream was lowered by 250 yuan / ton on the 15th, the mainstream market quotation was reduced to 16300 yuan / T, and Shanghai Secco cut the price by 300 yuan / T to 16000 yuan / ton on the 26th; In April, the domestic mainstream market price of acrylonitrile continued to decline, and the price remained stable at about RMB 14400 / T at the end of the month, with a downward range of 10%.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In February, the civil gas market in Shandong Province was staged in the Spring Festival, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the main trend was weak downward, and the post festival market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LNG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route, and the civil gas market in Shandong Province increased significantly; But in mid March, it began to go down continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market was not continued; Since the end of March, the LNG market is dominated by favorable factors and enters the upward channel again. In April, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price rose continuously, especially after the small and long holiday in Qingming, the civil gas market in Shandong began to push up continuously, with a large margin; But in late April, the civil LPG market showed “slide ride”, and the price fell 5-6% and remained stable basically. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the rise in late and early April is significantly different. Although the price is down a part from the early ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream market atmosphere has recovered, the manufacturers are smooth to ship, most of the inventory is in controllable level. The market is still in a weak position, and the international crude oil is relatively weak. In addition, the weather temperature increases, and market demand is expected to weaken. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on February 18, the mainstream quotation of LNG Shandong market was 3900 yuan / ton, while that of April 28 daily was about 4173 yuan / ton, up about 15%.

Downstream demand: from 2021 to now, especially after, from mid February to mid March, the upstream raw material price has greatly increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide increases greatly. The polyacrylamide as downstream products will rise accordingly, and the procurement cost of downstream enterprises will increase greatly, and the procurement will not be active. In the early years, water treatment projects have not been restored, demand is weak, and polyacrylamide market is not good. Although the production period of environmental protection impact is from mid March to mid April, although inventory consumption is consumed, the demand has not changed much; This month, demand is still warm and hot. The change of polyacrylamide market this month is only affected by the inventory of each plant when the production is stopped.

Post market forecast: business community analysis shows that the domestic economy is stable and good at present, but the global macro-economy is affected by more uncertain factors under the influence of the peripheral, especially the recent epidemic has a serious impact on Southeast Asia. In addition to the obvious impact of inflation, the overall demand of overseas markets has weakened, which has a very obvious impact on multi industry, and then transmitted to the production links of multiple industries; Polyacrylamide, as an environmental protection water treatment product, is closely related to the environmental protection requirements of multi industry, and the demand is affected greatly. Secondly, under the national environmental protection objectives and regulatory requirements this year, environmental protection inspection is severe in all regions. Gongyi District, Henan, as the main production area of water treatment products, has also stopped production for rectification for about one month, but the inventory impact is not very large, especially after the resumption of production in the middle of the month, the supply is sufficient; According to the business society, some manufacturers in Gongyi area stop production again due to environmental protection factors, but the production stoppage is only partial. According to the analysis of local senior people, some manufacturers can not support the environmental protection factors, and strict requirements of policies will inevitably optimize the production organization, and some small factories may be eliminated. It is suggested that relevant manufacturers start from the overall situation view, Improve the production technology level as soon as possible, meet the environmental protection requirements, and maintain the long-term survival and development of the enterprise. In the latter market, if the production of related industries is continuously affected, the demand for water treatment projects can not be improved. In the short term, the market is stable, and the demand is still needed to be driven in the medium and long term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of April 26, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 18100 yuan / ton. Compared with April 21 (reference price was 18300 yuan / ton), the average price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol decreased by 200 yuan / ton, or 1.09%. Compared with April 1 (reference price 15900 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2200 yuan / ton, or 13.84%.

In April, stimulated by the surge of export orders, the domestic inventory supply of propylene glycol was tight. In the past two weeks, the market price of propylene glycol rose sharply.

Export orders are coming to an end, propylene glycol market has a weakening trend

At the beginning of last week, the market price of propylene glycol rose to a high point. On the 21st, the ex factory price of propylene glycol rose to 18000-18600 yuan / ton, which had increased by 2000-2500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month. The market then entered the consolidation operation. Near the weekend, the export orders of propylene glycol gradually decreased, which was almost at the end of the day. After the export demand weakened, 5. The domestic demand of propylene glycol is hard to maintain the rigid demand, and the propylene glycol market continues to run at a high level. The market situation of propylene glycol is beginning to weaken. Some propylene glycol factories have reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 25th, the average ex factory price of propylene glycol is 18100 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of the 21st, with a decrease of 1.09%, Compared with the price after Qingming Festival (8 days), the average price increased by 2800 yuan / ton, or 18.04% after the festival; Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (1st), the average price increased by 2200 yuan / ton, or 13.84%.

On the upstream side, since last week, the market of propylene oxide has been stable first and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the market has been sorted out by game, mainly by wait-and-see, and the market has been stable. With the decline of factory inventory, the downstream polyether orders have improved, driving the market price up in a narrow range. The propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure, and the downstream just need to follow up and stabilize, supporting the continuous price rise. On the 26th, the mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 18300-18500 yuan / ton, and that in East China was around 18500-18700 yuan / ton.

Before labor day, the market of propylene glycol is mostly stable and the adjustment is limited

At present, the inventory of propylene glycol is gradually accumulated in the warehouse, and the factory price adjustment is mostly May 1 to reduce the inventory. In terms of demand, the downstream is not willing to prepare goods before labor day. In terms of raw materials, the cost of propylene glycol and the price of propylene oxide rebounded, and the support for propylene glycol was getting better. Therefore, from these two aspects, business community propylene glycol analysts believe that before labor day, the domestic propylene glycol market price is mainly stable, and the market adjustment is limited.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 26, the average ex factory price of acetic acid in East China was 7595.00 yuan / ton, up 22.30% in April. In April, the price of acetic acid rose widely since the Qingming Festival. During the month, some acetic acid plants were shut down for maintenance, and the enterprises were short of inventory. The downstream demand remained strong, the spot supply on the floor continued to be tight, and the quotation of acetic acid went up at a high level. As of April 26, the market price of acetic acid in China is as follows:

region date offer

Shandong Province April 26th 7500-7750 yuan / ton

Jiangsu Province April 26th 7600-7900 yuan / ton

Zhejiang Province April 26th 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Hebei Province April 26th 7500 yuan / ton

Northwest China April 26th 7750 yuan / ton

South China April 26th 7900-8000 yuan / ton

North China April 26th 7330-7800 yuan / ton

The domestic acetic acid market is strong and upward. After the shutdown and restart of acetic acid plants of individual enterprises within the month, the market supply is still in a tight state. At present, Nanjing Bibi acetic acid plant has resumed production, but the market supply situation has not improved much. On the one hand, Henan Shunda acetic acid plant has failed to restart, and Jiangsu Sopu acetic acid plant has stopped unexpectedly, so the short-term supply gap is difficult to make up, In short supply, acetic acid market was pushed up channel.

The domestic methanol market continued to rise, the inventory of the mainland and ports decreased, and some olefins were imported to support the state of mind. The futures market went up, which was good for the domestic spot market. As of April 26, the price of Shandong area was about 2525.00 yuan / ton. At present, on-site shippers are reluctant to sell at low prices, while the downstream just needs to purchase. The market turnover is weak, and the methanol market is mainly in consolidation.

As of the 26th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 11333.33 yuan / ton, up 21.21% in April. Mainly due to the upstream market trend and the tight supply of raw materials, the acetic acid price continued to rise in April, and the cost of raw materials rose, which pushed the acetic anhydride price up.

In terms of acetate, the domestic price of ethyl acetate rose sharply. As of the 26th, the average ex factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 9562.50 yuan / ton, up 11.19% in April. The upstream acetic acid market continued to rise, the spot supply of raw material n-butanol market was tight, and the goods were ready before May Day. The mentality of the industry was bullish. Under the favorable conditions of supply and demand, the market trend of ethyl acetate continued to be strong. The price of raw materials is strong. The quotation of butyl acetate manufacturers keeps up with the trend. The lower reaches do not accept the high price and purchase on demand. The supply of raw material acetic acid market is tight, which supports the future market of downstream acetic acid.

According to acetic acid analysts of business news agency, the domestic acetic acid market is in short supply, the operating rate of acetic acid on site is low, some acetic acid plants of individual enterprises fail to operate normally, the market supply is difficult to recover in a short time, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate at a high level, and the long-term trend needs to pay attention to the starting situation of acetic acid plants.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic spandex market in April was stable at a high level, and the overall quotation of the factory changed little. The average price of the current 40d specification was 67600 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 104.23%. Spandex industry started around 90%, high-level operation.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 83000-85000 73000-75000 64000-67000

Shandong 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Fujian 83000-86000 74000-76000 64000-68000

Jiangsu Province 83000-85000 73000-75000 63000-66000

The pure MDI market of raw materials is weak, and the overall negotiation atmosphere is not good. Most traders follow the market and purchase small orders from downstream. Local market negotiation in 22000-22500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barreled pick-up. The PTMEG market is in a narrow range, the BDO on the cost side is declining obviously, and the bearish sentiment is enhanced. At present, the mainstream factories of 1800 molecular weight supply offer around 43000 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation can refer to 42000-43000 yuan / ton. 80% of the PTMEG industry started. Specifically, Jiaxing Xiaoxing has 135000 tons of equipment for maintenance, and 80% of a set of equipment. The operation load of the 60000 ton plant in Panjin Changchun is not high.

Changes of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name Production capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Jiaxing Xiaoxing thirteen point five One device maintenance, one set of device 80%

Hangzhou Sanlong six The device has been restarted

Yizheng Dalian four Long term parking

Panjin Changchun six The operation load is not high

The follow-up of downstream terminal market demand is a little slow, purchasing on demand, cautious view of the market. At present, about 55-60% of the circular knitting machines are started, while 70% of the warp knitting machines are started, which is basically stable. Recently, the sales of summer fashion fabrics in the traditional Chinese Textile City market have been smooth in some parts, and the local transactions of nylon / polyester, nylon / cotton, cotton / nylon and spandex elastic, nylon / cotton elastic and cotton / nylon elastic fabrics are relatively active.

From the industry point of view, according to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in March, the added value of the textile industry increased by 7.5% year-on-year; From January to March, the added value of textile industry increased by 22.5% year on year. In March, 3.4 billion meters of cloth were planted, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; From January to March, 8.3 billion meters of cloth were planted, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. In March, 5.97 million tons of chemical fiber, an increase of 20.7% year on year; From January to March, chemical fiber was 15.8 million tons, up 27.1% year on year.

At present, the market trend of spandex has little change, the supporting role of the cost side is general, and the enthusiasm of downstream end customers to take goods is not high. In addition to the shortage of supply in the early stage, the transaction of coarse denier yarn can be negotiated. Business analysts expect that all parties will be cautious and wait-and-see in the future, and the price of spandex will still run smoothly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, since April, hydrogen peroxide has continued to rise after bottoming out. At the beginning of the month, the market fell by more than 3%, and began to rise in the middle of the month, with an increase of more than 11%. As of April 23, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1110 yuan / ton, up 7.07% from the beginning of April. In the last week of the end of the month, the market of hydrogen peroxide gradually recovered. As of April 26, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1086 yuan / ton, up 4.82% from the beginning of April.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from February 2021 to April 25, 2021, it can be seen that since February, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline in a weak way, with a maximum weekly decline of more than 11%. In the first ten days of March, hydrogen peroxide began to rebound, with the highest weekly increase of nearly 5.8%. After the sharp rise, it began to plunge into the market. By the middle of April, hydrogen peroxide hit the bottom and rebounded again, and continued to rise for more than half a month, up as high as 11%. Near the end of the month, the end of the terminal stock market, hydrogen peroxide diving high platform, prices have fallen, as of April 26, a decline of more than 2%.

On April 26, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted as follows:

Luxi Chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1010 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton from the beginning of April; Hebei Zhengyuan chemical fertilizer hydrogen peroxide quoted 1050 yuan / ton, the price increased by 150 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide plant shutdown, no offer, Anhui Jinhe hydrogen peroxide shortage, offer 1400 yuan / ton.

Terminal demand improves, hydrogen peroxide market picks up in April

In early April, hydrogen peroxide continued its decline in March, with the price falling mainly, with a decrease of more than 3%. Since the middle of this year, the purchasing demand of terminal paper industry has increased. In addition, the hydrogen peroxide plant of Anhui Quansheng has been shut down for maintenance. The hydrogen peroxide plant has low inventory and tight supply, so the ex factory price has been continuously increased. As of April 23, the price of hydrogen peroxide has risen quietly for more than a week, up as high as 11%. Although the terminal caprolactam market is weak and stable, the paper industry market also slows down, and the hydrogen peroxide Market is suppressed to a certain extent. Due to the low inventory and the price support of manufacturers, the hydrogen peroxide Market is still strong. Towards the end of the month, the end of centralized terminal stock market, hydrogen peroxide prices have been callback, down 30-50 yuan / ton, down more than 2%

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, believes that: before the May Day holiday, the stock market is over, and the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide is down. After the holiday, the hydrogen peroxide market may continue to fall.