The copper market remained largely volatile this week (3.9-3.13)

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the 13th, copper prices were reported at 100615 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 26.16%.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 7 and an increase of 4 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased. As of the weekend, LME copper inventory was 312350 tons, up 6.15% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, although the February US CPI data met expectations, the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts has pushed up crude oil prices, becoming a “new variable” for inflation. As of March 15th, Brent crude oil prices have soared to $98 per barrel, up 23% from early February, directly driving up global energy costs. The US bond market took the lead in responding: the two-year US bond yield hit 3.632%, a new five month high; Federal funds rate futures show that the expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has plummeted from 41 basis points to 32 basis points, and the market has even postponed the next rate cut to September.
Supply side: The overseas mining sector continues to experience disturbances, with leading institutions warning of an expanding supply gap. Domestic spot processing fees continue to run at negative values, further confirming the fact of a shortage in the mining sector and continuing to provide strong bottom support for copper prices. On the inventory side, LME copper inventory has continued to accumulate recently. Although the inventory increased slightly yesterday, the latest inventory rose to 312300 tons. However, domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, with electrolytic copper spot inventory of 577500 tons on March 12th, a decrease of 12300 tons from the 9th.
On the demand side: With the recent fluctuation of copper prices and the support of peak season expectations for buying, the prosperity of spot consumption has improved. The warehouse outflow volume increased during the week, and the arrival of domestic goods in some markets decreased, driving down inventory.
In summary, geopolitical conflicts are intertwined with macro risks, and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices may continue to limit the Federal Reserve’s room for interest rate cuts, putting pressure on market risk appetite and restraining the upward momentum of copper prices. However, the long-term demand support brought by energy transformation and AI data center construction, as well as the trend of domestic social inventory shifting towards destocking, provide bottom support for prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term, hovering around 100000 yuan/ton.