PC prices rose significantly in the first half of March

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market rapidly rose in the first half of March, with most spot prices of various brands showing significant increases. As of March 16th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16326.67 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+25.33% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In early March, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises first increased and then decreased. The load of the preliminary equipment has increased. As the middle of the month approaches, the overall average operating rate of the industry has dropped to around 85%, with an average weekly output of around 70000 tons. Due to the rapid digestion of social inventory in the first half of the month, the current production and sales pressure of aggregation factories remains at a relatively low level. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market rebounded in the first half of March. Affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, phenol and acetone have risen significantly. Subsequently, it will boost the spot price of bisphenol A in China. At the same time, the supply increment of bisphenol A is limited, and at present, it actively supports the cost of PC. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the progress of new production capacity in the future.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still average. However, due to the rise in international crude oil prices and logistics costs, as well as the resonance of commodity prices, there is a strong atmosphere of speculation in the PC market. Factories and merchants have significantly inflated their reports, and buyers not only need to replenish inventory, but also engage in some price chasing operations. The current price has risen to a relatively high level, and buyers are cautious in stocking up. Coupled with downstream inventory waiting to be digested after the holiday, buyers have weak willingness to continue building warehouses and have entered a wait-and-see stage. However, the local supply of goods in the market is tight, and spot prices remain firm. Overall, the demand side still provides sufficient support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In the first half of March, the domestic PC market saw a significant increase. Affected by the geopolitical situation, crude oil and related products in the petrochemical industry chain led the market, with upstream bisphenol A prices rising and consolidating, and the cost value quickly transmitted to PC. The load of domestic PC polymerization plants first increased and then decreased, and the supply in the future market slightly tightened. On site trading has shifted from explosive to calm, and buyers’ mentality has returned to caution. Buyers can take it as they please, and the operation is mainly based on small orders. It is expected that the PC market in the future will be deeply affected by the upstream market in the far end. It is recommended to closely monitor the dynamics in the Middle East.