According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have fallen sharply recently. On March 10th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 730 points, a decrease of 32 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.51% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 169.37% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
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Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the 11th, the price of neodymium oxide was 865000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.49% in two days; The price of neodymium metal was 1.045 million yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 6.28%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 835000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.49% in 2 days; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.04 million yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 9.57%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 965000 yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 8.96%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 775000 yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 8.82%.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have fallen sharply, and the prices of core products have continued to decline, leading to a rapid cooling of the market atmosphere. The decline in rare earth prices did not lead to a rebound in transactions, but instead fell into a stalemate of “unlimited price reductions”. The purchasing willingness of downstream magnetic material enterprises continues to be sluggish, mainly focusing on long-term contract procurement for essential needs and low inventory operations, with few market-oriented zero order purchases; On the trade side, there is a phenomenon of concentrated discounts on shipments and the realization of profitable positions. Some holders are eager to cash in and actively lower prices, further exacerbating the downward pressure on prices.
1、 The supply side has shifted from tight to loose, and the expectation of market shortage has completely subsided
The transformation of the supply pattern is the core driving force behind the current downturn in the rare earth market. The supply contraction logic that previously supported the rise in rare earth prices is gradually collapsing, and the market supply of goods is becoming more relaxed. On the one hand, the domestic rare earth production capacity has been released in an orderly manner, and the separation indicators for mining and smelting have been steadily implemented. Leading enterprises such as Northern Rare Earth have maintained normal levels of production, and the supply of light rare earth raw materials is stable and sufficient, effectively ensuring the upstream supply of the industrial chain; On the other hand, overseas import channels have remained smooth, with rare earth imports steadily increasing year-on-year since the beginning of 2026. The continuous influx of overseas incremental sources of goods has fully offset previous market concerns about supply contraction in Myanmar and export controls in Vietnam. The supply side has rapidly shifted from a tight state to a supply-demand balance or even a slight easing, and prices have lost their core upward support.
2、 The demand side continues to be weak, and the downstream demand support is insufficient
As an upstream raw material, the price trend of rare earths is highly dependent on downstream industry demand, and the current weak performance of downstream demand has become a key factor suppressing the rare earth market. In the early stage, rare earth prices continued to operate at high levels, significantly driving up production costs in downstream fields such as permanent magnet materials, new energy vehicles, wind power, and consumer electronics. Downstream enterprises’ profit margins were squeezed, and their stocking pace was generally slowed down. They actively avoided the risk of high priced raw materials and shifted to on-demand procurement and light inventory operation mode, resulting in a significant decrease in demand for rare earth raw materials. Combined with March being the traditional off-season for consumption, the growth rate of new energy vehicle terminal sales has slowed down, the pace of wind power installation has entered a period of adjustment, the demand in the consumer electronics market has not shown a significant rebound, the transmission of terminal orders is weak, the operating rate of magnetic material enterprises has not met expectations, and the ability to digest rare earth raw materials continues to be insufficient. More noteworthy is the emergence of raw material substitution technologies in some downstream fields, with the gradual application of substitute products such as cerium iron alloys, further reducing the demand share of high-end rare earth raw materials. The overall performance of the demand side is weak, making it difficult to effectively support high rare earth prices.
3、 The market sentiment has collectively turned, and the realization of profit orders has intensified the downward trend
The rapid reversal of market sentiment has amplified the downward trend in rare earth prices. Previously, the price of rare earths surged rapidly in the short term, with a considerable cumulative increase. The market has accumulated a large number of short-term profit opportunities, and the willingness of funds to take profits is strong. After the price reached a high level, traders and speculative funds concentrated on cashing in profits, actively lowering prices and shipping, driving the market quotation to quickly decline, thereby triggering a rise in bearish expectations in the market.
4、 Outlook for the future: Short term weakness is difficult to change, and strategic support still exists in the medium and long term
In the short term, the weak pattern of the rare earth market is unlikely to show significant improvement. The loose situation on the supply side will continue, and the off-season effect of downstream demand has not yet subsided. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment is difficult to quickly reverse, and prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend. We will continue to seek a balance point between supply and demand. If downstream terminal demand fails to recover in a timely manner, coupled with the continued willingness of traders to ship, there is still room for further decline in rare earth prices. However, considering the support of upstream costs and the continued willingness of the industry to support prices, the probability of a significant drop is low, and the market will mainly experience a mild correction and consolidation.
In the medium to long term, the strategic value and essential properties of rare earths remain prominent. With the gradual recovery of demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw material of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading. After the short-term negative factors are exhausted and market sentiment is restored, the rare earth market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
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