This week, copper prices rose first and then fell (1.5-1.9)

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the 10th, copper prices were reported at 100515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 34.35%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 5 and risen by 7, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 141075 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 1.03% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, leading to an increase in risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and copper prices fell under pressure.
Supply side: Supply side disturbances continue. The existing mines operate at full or overloaded capacity for a long time, resulting in frequent production interruptions. At the beginning of 2026, negotiations at the Mantovade mine in Chile broke down, and strikes may continue, exacerbating concerns about supply shortages. Domestic copper concentrate spot processing fees continue to be negative, highlighting the fact of tight mines. In addition, the siphon effect caused by the US copper tariffs has led to a tightening of spot supply in non US regions, resulting in a continuous decline in copper inventories on the London Stock Exchange.
On the demand side, the rapid development of new energy fields such as artificial intelligence, robots, photovoltaic installations, and solid-state batteries has brought vast consumption space to the copper market, resulting in copper prices stabilizing at historical highs. However, the weak reality pattern in China has become prominent, and the high copper prices have led to the spread of downstream fear of heights, resulting in a stalemate in market trading at the end of the year. After the copper price hit a new high, the activity of domestic spot procurement cooled down, and downstream enterprises delivered on long orders, dragging down the rise in copper prices due to short-term demand. Under the seasonal off-season and year-end effects, downstream purchases are made on demand, and high priced goods are not sought after. Weak reality suppression is evident, and market buying enthusiasm may be difficult to materialize.
Message surface:
The Trump administration and congressional Republicans are pushing for legislation to overturn the mining ban in northern Minnesota to help Twin Metals develop North America’s largest critical mineral reserve. The bill will also prohibit the President from imposing similar restrictions in the future. This move will directly drive the copper cobalt nickel project of Twin Metals, a subsidiary of Antofagasta in Chile. The region has the largest undeveloped key mineral reserves in North America, with nickel reserves of approximately 4.6 million tons and copper reserves exceeding 2 million tons.
In summary, under the pressure of weak reality in China and profit taking by bulls, copper prices have experienced short-term high adjustments. In addition, the 20-year environmental ban or repeal in the United States, the largest undeveloped key mineral reserve in North America, with nickel reserves of about 4.6 million tons and copper reserves exceeding 2 million tons, has caused a shock to the copper and nickel markets, leading to a sharp decline in prices. The market sentiment is currently quite volatile, and it is expected that copper prices will mainly adjust at a high level in the short term.