price trend
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to data from Business Society’s bulk commodity ranking, the domestic PC market experienced a consolidating trend in late November, with spot prices of most grades fluctuating. As of November 25, the benchmark price for PC mix stood at approximately 13,766.67 yuan per ton, showing a -2.82% change compared to the beginning of November.
Root cause analysis
Supply Side: At the beginning of the month, domestic PC polymer enterprises operated at relatively low load rates. Mid-month maintenance at Zhejiang Petrochemical covered multiple production lines, while some lines at Luxi Chemical were also shut down. Industry operating rates remained stable at around 77%, with weekly output nearing 65,000 tons. Next week, it is expected that Pingmei Shenhua will resume production and Lihua Yi’s branded materials will restore supply, leading to a potential easing in supply. However, current inventory levels, after prior digestion, remain relatively controllable, and production-sales pressure in the market is manageable. Overall, the support effect of PC supply on PC prices is expected to stabilize.
In terms of raw materials: As shown in the figure above, the bisphenol A market experienced a rebound from low levels in late November. The upstream prices of phenol and acetone fluctuated and remained weak, offering little positive impact on the bisphenol A market. However, recent factory inventories were not under pressure, and with the spot prices having dropped to low levels, manufacturers and traders increased their efforts to stabilize prices. The market rebounded after gaining bottoming support. On the other hand, the consumption side of bisphenol A showed no improvement, with limited changes in the focus of recent actual orders. It is expected that bisphenol A prices may remain stable in the future, but the support for the PC cost side remains moderate.
Demand side: The load position of downstream factories remains less than ideal, with stockpiling maintained through low-price purchases at weak mandatory demand levels. Customs data shows a slight decline in export markets, while PC end-user enterprises adopt conservative production schedules. Within the range, traders operate more reactively to market conditions, with cautious and wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. After the initial demand for filling inventory gaps was satisfied, market trading activity returned to a quieter tone, and the circulation speed of goods slowed further. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices remains moderate.
Market outlook
By the end of November, the domestic PC market remained stagnant and consolidated. The upstream bisphenol A market halted its decline and began recovery, easing the drag on PC costs. Domestic PC polymerization plants operated at stable loads with minor adjustments, and there was an expectation of a rebound in the near future. Market trading remained weak, with a standoff between buyers and sellers. It is anticipated that the PC market will likely remain stagnant and consolidated in the short term.
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