Aluminum prices rebound in May

Aluminum prices rebound in May

Aluminum prices rebounded in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20396.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% from the market average price of 20073.33 yuan/ton on May 1.
Macro positive support
In mid May, the sentiment in the commodity market rebounded due to the positive news of tariffs from the China US Geneva talks.
According to the consensus of the Geneva talks between China, the United States, and Japan, the US will lower its tariffs on China to 10% starting from May 14th and suspend the implementation of the 24% tariff measure for 90 days. This directly alleviates the pressure on domestic aluminum exports, especially benefiting the demand for transit trade such as photovoltaic modules and automotive parts. Because in 2024, although China’s direct export of aluminum materials to the United States accounted for less than 5%, the proportion of aluminum products transshipped through Mexico and Canada exceeded 30%. The tariff reduction will repair the resilience of this part of the supply chain, and the market is optimistic about the recovery of export orders in the second half of the year, thereby increasing demand expectations for aluminum ingots.
Fundamental Overview
The recent supply and demand fundamentals are still good. In May, the domestic aluminum ingot supply was relatively stable, and demand showed differentiation. There is some support in the new energy sector and export demand, but the demand in traditional sectors such as construction is weak, and inventory continues to decrease.
Inventory data
The mainstream inventory of domestic aluminum ingots is in a destocking cycle. As of May 26th, the mainstream inventory of domestic aluminum ingots is 534000 tons, far lower than the 643000 tons in mid May and the 774000 tons at the end of April, indicating a continuous destocking trend.