According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of polyester filament showed a trend of consolidation or stable center of gravity on May 19th. From May 9th to 12th, driven by the rise in international oil prices and polyester raw material costs, the price of polyester filament rose sharply. As of May 19th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6950-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8000-8400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7300-7400 yuan/ton.
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Cost factor: The adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States has driven up oil prices rapidly, and the rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in the prices of polyester filament raw materials such as PTA and MEG. As PTA is an important raw material for polyester filament, its price increase has significantly increased the production cost of polyester filament. In order to maintain profit margins, enterprises have raised the prices of polyester filament products. The concentrated maintenance of PX major factories in the second quarter has led to a tightening of PX spot supply. As an important raw material for polyester filament, PTA prices have risen by more than 2% in half a month, providing cost support for the price of polyester filament and driving it up.
Supply and demand factors: From a supply perspective, some polyester factories have plans to reduce production, and the three major filament factories have decided to implement production cuts for loss making varieties, reducing market supply and providing some support for prices. From the perspective of demand, May is a traditional seasonal off-season, with limited growth in demand from downstream weaving enterprises. In addition, due to low-priced restocking in the early stage, downstream enterprises have entered the stage of digesting inventory in the short term, resulting in a decrease in their enthusiasm for purchasing polyester filament. However, industry leaders such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong Refining have experienced equipment maintenance and capacity reduction, which has reduced market supply and supported prices.
Macro factors: The central bank has lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, policy interest rates have also been lowered, and market liquidity has increased, which theoretically has a certain boosting effect on the price of polyester filament. At the same time, the improvement of trade relations between China and the United States, coupled with positive market expectations, has also to some extent supported the price of polyester filament.
Business Society predicts that in the short term, under the background of cost support and tight supply, the price of polyester filament is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, or remain stable and slightly strong. But if the textile and clothing industry fails to significantly increase orders, the market may still face upward resistance.
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