Price Trend Review
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 23, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124358 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.50%. The macroeconomic policy benefits failed to offset the pressure of weak fundamentals, and nickel prices showed a narrow downward trend.
Macro level: Policy boost has limited effect
Insufficient stimulation from domestic interest rate cuts: The central bank announced interest rate cuts and lowered deposit rates, but the credit demand of enterprises and residents was sluggish, and the willingness of real consumption and investment was weak, and the expectation of metal demand did not improve significantly.
The marginal effect of easing trade between China and the United States has weakened: the boost to market sentiment from the tariff reduction agreement has gradually been digested, and there is a lack of new policy stimulus points in the short term.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Global oversupply intensifies: WBMS data shows that in March 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 39400 tons (with a production of 317300 tons and a consumption of 277800 tons), and the surplus expanded month on month.
Price differentiation of nickel ore: The benchmark price for domestic nickel ore in Indonesia has increased by 2.43% to $15415 per wet ton (due to the continued impact of the rainy season on mining); The rainy season in the Philippines has ended, shipping volume has rebounded, nickel ore prices have fallen, and the marginal cost support has weakened.
Inventory differentiation: LME nickel inventory increased by 3414 tons per week (to 198636 tons), with loose overseas supply and demand; Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai decreased by 1083 tons per week (to 22418 tons), and the pressure on domestic spot prices has slightly eased, while global oversupply remains under pressure.
Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+structural weakening of new energy
Weak demand for stainless steel: The off-season effect is evident, and the accumulation of steel mill inventory is suppressing purchasing intentions. Nickel demand only maintains rigid demand. On May 22nd, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 12242.86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.4%.
New energy demand differentiation: The loading volume of ternary batteries has declined: In April, the loading volume of ternary batteries decreased by 7.0% month on month and 6.3% year-on-year, with the proportion shrinking to 17.2%; The dominant position of lithium iron phosphate has been strengthened: its proportion has increased to 82.8%, further squeezing the application space of nickel in power batteries. Export drag: In April, the export of ternary precursors decreased by 67% year-on-year, and weak overseas demand constrained nickel consumption.
Market forecast: The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, there is a lack of bright spots in demand, the macro boost is weak, and there is no obvious upward driving force in fundamentals. The cost of nickel ore in Indonesia is rising, and support still exists. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.
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