Trend of metallic magnesium in May
In May, the magnesium ingot Market rose first and then fell. The overall weakness was mainly downward. At the end of the month, it closed down steadily. As of May 31, the market tax included spot exchange was 31000 yuan / ton, down about 5000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 14.68%. At the beginning of the month, the metal magnesium started its upward trend. After the May Day holiday, some customers entered the market one after another. Although the market inquiries increased, there were still few high price transactions. Subsequently, the orchid charcoal rectification news stimulated the market. The price rose rapidly. The price rise again made the buyers and sellers cautious, and the quotation gradually returned to a rational state. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the magnesium market began to decline all the way. In view of the large differences in factory inventory and capital, the market quotation was seriously divided, and the mainstream price mainly fell until it remained at the 30000 yuan level.
Market analysis
Factory aspect
At this stage, the production level of magnesium plants is relatively normal. Under the premise of the lack of good news in the market, the mentality of magnesium manufacturers is empty. Different magnesium plants have different direct inventory and capital pressure. Small-scale enterprises often take the initiative to reduce prices, hoping to drive the transaction. However, large-scale magnesium enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, which is not the reason for price concessions. Some magnesium plants choose not to offer prices and wait and see the market.
Raw material cost
Dolomite in Wutai Area is currently quoted at 180 yuan / ton. As the main raw material of magnesium ingot, the supply of dolomite is becoming more and more tense. At present, the time for the resumption of the mine is uncertain, or it will have a certain impact on the subsequent supply.
The spot price of raw ferrosilicon and coke was weak, and the market followed the downward trend. The price in the main production areas of Ningxia was 8700-8900 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 8755 yuan / ton. Ferrosilicon manufacturers began to avoid peak production due to profit contraction, and capacity replacement began in some areas, resulting in a downward trend in the start-up and output in May; The coke market has experienced four rounds of increase and decrease. As of the press release, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 3116 yuan / ton, and coke enterprises take the initiative to limit production by 1-30%; The overall operating rate of the downstream enterprises of Lancang carbon is low, and the transaction of some high priced resources is frustrated. The price drops slightly, and the decline of raw material prices weakens the cost support for magnesium ingots.
Aftermarket forecast
In May, the market was affected by the continued weakness of the demand market. On the contrary, the supply side showed a slow upward trend, and the market mentality was generally empty. On the news, Yulin Lancan’s rectification policy was delayed and lacked positive boost, and the magnesium ingot quotation continued to decline. As a result, the production profit is further squeezed. In addition, the current price is at the node of 30000 yuan, and the magnesium plant is willing to offer more. Whether it can stabilize depends on the subsequent recovery of demand.
