1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 11, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13150 yuan / ton, up 1.15% month on month and 1.94% year on year. The overall market is waiting to be sorted out.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the MDI market continues to maintain a quiet atmosphere, weak finishing wait-and-see. Under the pressure of inventory, the supplier’s manufacturers all reduced their production and reduced their load. The Ryan unit was seriously affected by the local epidemic, and it was learned that it was difficult to return to work in the near future within one month. Most of the downstream enterprises have not returned to work, so it is hard to be optimistic about the market demand. The trade links are all online but also “on paper”. The logistics is limited in all aspects, and the number of inquiry customers is very small.

In terms of market, the MDI market of South China polymerization is weak and stable. Traders mainly work online, with few inquiries downstream. The commencement time of downstream terminal is postponed, and the atmosphere is quiet. In North China, aggregate MDI is quiet and stable. The supplier is under great pressure, reducing the load or stopping, and the traders start work in cloud and isolate themselves at home. There are occasional enquiries in the downstream, and there is no intention to buy for a short time. The aggregate MDI market in East China is stable. The epidemic situation in East China is serious, and the downstream construction time continues to be delayed. Most of the traders return to work in the cloud, and they will not offer or continue to offer before the festival.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the focus of pure benzene has declined, and the atmosphere is stalemate. At present, automobile transportation and logistics are still limited, and refineries and downstream are facing shipment pressure. In the follow-up, there were many domestic trade ships arriving at the port in East China, but the downstream was affected by the failure of the terminal to resume work, and the intention of spot purchase was weak.

Aniline: aniline factory and downstream enterprises shut down or reduce more negative, market supply and demand are weak, factory delivery is general, market stability is the main, North China mainstream negotiation price reference is 6540 yuan / ton acceptance, East China market mainstream reference is 6750 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: Business Club aggregate MDI analysts expect that aggregate MDI market is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been running steadily this week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2750-2800 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2050 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2650-2750 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton; in South China The quotation for delivery is about 2750-2800 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: affected by the epidemic of pneumonia, domestic logistics and transportation are limited, acetic acid production enterprises are not able to deliver goods smoothly, inventory accumulation is high, and some enterprises gradually reduce the load. Due to the delay of commencement and load reduction in some downstream markets, the overall trade and investment in the industry is light, and the overall market is stable.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market has increased the stock pressure, the enterprise’s shipment is not smooth, and the market turnover is flat, at present, about 2110 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries are basically in the semi closed state, the industry starts insufficiently, the demand is light, some regions are expected to resume work next week, but the transportation is still difficult; PTA spot market has a large stock pressure, and the terminal starts are delayed , limited transportation.

International: this week, the international acetic acid market is mainly stable, in which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 750 US dollars / ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia is about 325-375 US dollars / ton; the current price of acetic acid in Europe is about 620 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, under the influence of pneumonia, the overall performance of domestic acetic acid industry chain is relatively light. First, Limited Logistics and transportation lead to weak and soft trade and investment, second, the downstream market starts late, demand is poor, and the superposition of negative factors leads to weak and stable operation of acetic acid market. It is expected that the acetic acid market is still weak in a short period of time, and transportation constraints are the main problems.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market fell sharply this week, down 7.21% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: during last week’s long holiday in China, overseas markets were worried about the impact of the global new coronavirus epidemic on oil demand, which led to a sharp drop in the price of international crude oil market. Affected by this, the price of toluene in domestic market fell sharply this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5230 yuan / ton..

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, worried about the impact of the global new crown virus epidemic on oil demand, the international oil price this week showed an overall trend of shock and anti decline. As of Friday, Brent fell 4.76% at sight, Brent futures fell 4.80%, WTI futures fell 1.04% and Dubai futures fell 5.59%.

On the downstream side, in terms of TDI, at present, the external market is about US $644 / T fobara, and domestic enterprises have not yet returned to work and have not yet made a quotation. It is expected that the future TDI market will follow the lead to make up the decline. In the PX market, the domestic market price this week followed the make-up drop, which is about 6300 yuan / ton at present. The latest price of the external market is about 718 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 738 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6300 yuan / ton next week.

 
3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: continue to focus on the trend of crude oil next week. On the whole, as the resumption of work is approaching, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a small shock rebound trend next week.

1、 Price trend

The domestic isomeric xylene market fell sharply this week, down 6.93% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: during last week’s long holiday in China, the overseas market was worried about the impact of the global new crown virus epidemic on oil demand, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of international crude oil market. Affected by this, the price of isomeric xylene in the domestic market fell sharply this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5300 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, worried about the impact of the global new crown virus epidemic on oil demand, the international oil price this week showed an overall trend of shock and anti decline. As of Friday, Brent fell 4.76% at sight, Brent futures fell 4.80%, WTI futures fell 1.04% and Dubai futures fell 5.59%.

In terms of downstream, PX market and PX market, the price of domestic market this week followed the make-up drop, which is about 6300 yuan / ton at present, and the latest price of external market is about 718 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 738 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain 6300 yuan / ton next week. In terms of PTA market, the price of external market is about 575 US dollars / ton, while the price of domestic PTA spot market follows the price to make up the decline. At present, it is about 4400 yuan / ton, and it is expected that PTA market will remain weak in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene was flat, at 5800 yuan / ton, and the price of o-benzene was about US $880 / ton. It is expected that the trend of o-benzene in the future will be stable.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: next week, we will continue to focus on the trend of crude oil. On the whole, as the resumption of work is approaching, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a small shock rebound trend next Tuesday.

1、 Price trend

In January 2020, the domestic market of cyclohexanone kept stable operation. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the price of cyclohexanone at the end of the month is 7383 yuan / ton. The price is 17.96% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of cyclohexanone was basically stable in January, and the main factory price was about 7300-7450 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the end of December. In January, the situation in the east of junior high school suddenly became tense, crude oil rose, the spot market of pure benzene rose, the cost pressure of cyclohexanone increased again, and the factory faced a loss situation, such as the Bank of China in Jining stopped production of cyclohexanone in early January, and converted to cyclohexane production; in addition, Shenyuan 250000 tons of equipment was put into production, and the spot market supply was abundant. In view of the basic matching of cyclohexanone plant, the impact of heavy snow in the north, limited transportation, only a small amount of goods in the downstream. With the advent of the Spring Festival, the transportation of dangerous chemicals is affected. Around January 10th, traders gradually enter the holiday stage, and the market transactions are increasingly cold.

Industrial chain: raw materials: pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose this month. In the first ten days of the month, crude oil rose sharply in stages due to geographical factors in the Middle East. The price of domestic East China rose to 5980-6050 yuan / ton, and the downstream phenol ketone and caprolactam also rose slightly. However, due to the difficulty of spot delivery of main downstream styrene, it failed to form a good support for pure benzene. Therefore, the rebound basis of pure benzene is not solid. After the crude oil’s rise is digested and the rise is reversed, the center of gravity of pure benzene will fall accordingly.

Caprolactam: on the cost side, the price of raw material pure benzene is rising, the cost of caprolactam is under pressure, increasing losses, and the manufacturers actively hold up prices to reduce losses. On the supply side, the overall start-up of caprolactam plants in the north is not high, resulting in the shortage of caprolactam spot supply. The market price of caprolactam rose to 11200 yuan / ton for delivery under the boost of cost and supplier.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in January 2020, there are 30 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are acetic acid (10.74%), ethylene (10.23%) and bisphenol A (9.82%). There are 41 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 5 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products decreased were chloroform (- 9.09%), propane (- 8.33%) and caustic soda (- 8.30%).

3、 Future forecast

Due to the limitation of road traffic and transportation, the downstream enterprises often delay the resumption of work, the starting load of downstream caprolactam is low, the purchase volume is low, and the solvent enterprises mainly delay the resumption of work, and the demand side is low. Cyclohexanone analysts predict that the short-term domestic market will be stuck in a stalemate.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of the business association, the average price of the main market of 180CST fuel oil in China as of January 31 was 5030.00 yuan / ton, up and down 9.87% compared with 4578.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On January 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 101.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.11% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 121.07% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of domestic fuel oil rose sharply this month, with low inventory. The mainstream price at the end of the month was about 5100 yuan / ton. On January 31, the spot price of Singapore fuel oil (high sulfur 380cst) was 284.76 US dollars / ton, down 9.83 US dollars / ton compared with the previous day (converted to 1972 yuan / ton at the RMB exchange rate of that day). According to data released by ESG, the stock of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt) in Singapore increased by 737000 barrels to 22355000 barrels in the week ended January 29, including fuel oil and low sulfur and waxy residual oil; the stock of light distillate oil increased by 84000 barrels to 13005600 barrels; the stock of medium distillate oil increased by 389000 barrels to 11212000 barrels.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States at the beginning of the month is 61.68 USD / barrel, 58.54 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.09%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month is 68.44 USD / barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.25% at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.09%. At the beginning of the month, the tense situation in Iran and the rapid rise of international oil price, however, with Trump’s comments easing, the international crude oil price fell sharply. In the following two weeks, the long and short factors of the international crude oil market were intertwined, and there was no decisive factor for the time being. The sharp increase in fuel oil this month is mainly due to the tight supply of low sulfur asphalt and residual oil, the sharp increase in price, and the price difference in domestic trade and foreign trade ship fuel market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in January 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are fuel oil (9.87%), methanol (9.12%) and dimethyl ether (7.17%). There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are liquefied natural gas (- 17.45%), Brent crude oil (- 5.25%) and WTI crude oil (- 5.09%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.77%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business club think that logistics is greatly limited due to a series of factors such as Spring Festival. At present, it is expected to recover after February 10. It is expected that the fuel oil market price in February will fall slightly, and the price range may be 4900-5100 yuan / ton.

On February 4, the PX commodity index was 54.00, flat with yesterday, 47.27% lower than 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 18.55% higher than 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is significantly lower, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX plant is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and domestic p-xylene plant is opened The working rate is about 70%, and the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. However, in the near future, the price of crude oil has fallen sharply, and the market price of p-xylene has fallen sharply. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 4, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 710-712 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 730-732 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The sharp decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene market has declined.

Recently, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to US $49.61/barrel, or US $0.50, while Brent crude oil futures fell to US $53.96/barrel, or US $0.49. The oil market has not escaped this round of Black Swan – after another round of big fall, crude oil inevitably entered the bear market. The pattern of oversupply originally depressed the price of crude oil. However, the sudden outbreak has further increased the concern of global energy demand. Now, Saudi Arabia has been unable to sit still. The news that OPEC is planning to cut production is frequently heard in the market. However, the oil price is still “falling constantly”. Whether this measure of reducing production can work, it may also be said that the decline of crude oil price is bad for domestic chemical prices, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene is significantly lower.

In terms of raw material PTA, the recent price has dropped sharply to the level of 4300-4400 yuan / ton. At present, the PTA processing fee has dropped to about 50 yuan / ton, and the processing fee before the festival is nearly 600 yuan / ton. The new production capacity before the festival is put into use, and the current operating rate remains high. During the Spring Festival, the accumulated inventory is obvious, the social inventory is increased by nearly 30% compared with that before the festival, and the light transaction price in the spot market has fallen down. Affected by the epidemic situation, the downstream construction is postponed Later, in addition to the limited logistics, the unsmooth transportation of the industrial chain leads to the accumulation of inventory. In the future, the downstream textile will face the situation of delayed production or even contract breaking of orders. The downstream demand of PTA will worsen, the market price of PTA will fall sharply, and the price trend of p-xylene will decline.

In the near future, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market. In addition, the downstream demand of the terminal has not improved significantly. Business analysts believe that PX market price may remain low.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower. As of February 5, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic acid process is 6037.5 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower, the demand of plasticizer industry is not improved, and the market of phthalic anhydride is in a downturn.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been slightly lower. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals is limited. The inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers has increased and the delivery situation is poor. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5800-6200 yuan / ton and 5700-5900 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5800-6100 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, in addition to phthalic anhydride The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is slightly down.

In the near future, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream products in China on February 5 is 6300 yuan / ton. The import phthalic acid Market in the port area is temporarily stable and the quotation is stable. In the near future, the port phthalic acid market is stable and the port inventory is increased. The external quotation of phthalic acid is stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Influenced by the upstream raw material phthalic acid price support, the decline of phthalic anhydride market price is limited.

In the downstream, the price of DOP raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP raw material fell, the start-up of DOP enterprises was basically normal, the start-up rate fell, during the anti epidemic period, the logistics was limited, the transportation was difficult, and the inventory of DOP manufacturers was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level, and the mainstream price of DOP market was about 7100-7500 yuan / ton. In the future, the downward pressure of DOP remains, the upward momentum increases, the trend of downstream price declines slightly, and the upstream ox price remains volatile. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slight downward trend in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, in January, the trend of domestic polysilicon was not changed much compared with that of the previous month. Before the market accepted the trend at the beginning of the month, it went down with the trend, and then stopped falling, but did not usher in an increase. According to the monitoring, the monthly decline was 1.18%. The market stalemate is mainly stable, and the purchase volume of the downstream before the festival has not increased, mainly due to the influence of the light atmosphere around the Spring Festival. Before that, most of the enterprises have signed the bill. At the end of the month, the market price has no market, and the supply pressure has eased slightly. As of January 31, the average external quotation of the enterprises was 52000-56000 yuan / ton, and the current price has dropped about 20% compared with the previous year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystalline is not much different from that of last month.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market supply and demand, the supply pressure is still moderate. In January, 12 polysilicon production enterprises mainly operated normally with partial load reduction. According to the production plan of each enterprise, the enterprise’s inventory control was effective and did not form a huge social inventory pressure. In addition, the two enterprises in South Korea shut down production for maintenance in January and February, and the domestic import volume will be reduced accordingly, which also slowed down the domestic supply pressure to some extent. From the comparison of monocrystal and polycrystal, the performance of monocrystal silicon is slightly better than polycrystal silicon, which occupies part of the demand of polycrystal silicon. The growth of monocrystal production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. According to the situation of manufacturers, in polysilicon enterprises, after the order signing year, the market purchase volume has increased slightly. Although the price remains low, the order has increased significantly. On the other hand, the single crystal inventory of silicon material enterprises has been completely digested during the low price period of the market a few weeks ago, and there is no more supply pressure, so the price of single crystal has not been shaken, the downward pressure of polycrystalline silicon has also been eased, and the market is rigid and stable.

Let’s take a look at the demand: since January 2020, polysilicon demand has remained rigid and stable, and the price has stabilized. Most of the orders in the downstream before the festival are placed in advance, and most of the orders are signed in February. The transaction price of some enterprises shows a slight recovery. On the one hand, due to the rigid demand in the downstream, the purchasing base gas at the end of the lunar year, and the polysilicon operation rate has increased to 100%, which also confirms the following The improvement of travel demand is not entirely optimistic, which is inseparable from the Spring Festival procurement peak. The downstream stock up is completed. The previous expectation is that the enterprise will gradually accumulate the stock after the festival, but at present, affected by the epidemic situation, the enterprise starts a little late, the stock pressure may not be too large, and the downstream consumption of polycrystalline will slow down. It is expected that the market will be empty in the first ten days of February Window period.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the price of polysilicon is expected to be mainly stable. Since the enterprise has not started yet, the inventory pressure is not great. The order was full before this year, and the enterprise’s operating rate will reach the freezing point after the festival, and the downstream order may be reduced. However, with the recovery of downstream demand after the outbreak, polysilicon market may pick up.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in January. As of January 31, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 4775.00 yuan / ton, up 6.11% from 4500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 23.80% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In January, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply. The ex factory quotation in North China was about 4700-4800 yuan / ton, the quotation in East China was about 5000 yuan / ton, and the quotation in South China was about 5300 yuan / ton. The quotation rose, and the actual transaction price rose about 200 yuan / ton. The acetic anhydride manufacturer’s inventory is low, Yankuang’s acetic anhydride inventory is low, and the shipment is difficult. Hualu Hengsheng’s acetic anhydride inventory is low, and the normal shipment, the acetic anhydride supply is insufficient, and the downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm increases. The market of acetic anhydride is good, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride is increasing.

Industry chain factor analysis:

It can be seen from the figure that in January, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the pressure of acetic anhydride rising increased, the market of acetic anhydride was good, and the price of acetic anhydride rose.

It can be seen from the figure that in January, the price of methanol increased, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, the pressure of acetic anhydride increased, and the price of acetic anhydride increased, which is good for the future market of acetic anhydride.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, in January, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials acetic acid and methanol rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose sharply, the market of acetic anhydride was favorable, and the price of acetic anhydride rose; the stock of acetic anhydride manufacturers was low, the delivery was difficult, the supply of acetic anhydride was insufficient, and the power of acetic anhydride market rose increased; the impact of force majeure events, national control, logistics and transportation were difficult, and the operating rate of enterprises was low In the future, the market of acetic anhydride is expected to maintain stability in the short term and increase in the medium and long term.