Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (May 11): 7575 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the cryolite market is up today, and the average production price in Henan is up 0.66% from the previous working day. Affected by the public health incident, the on-site freight is on the high side, while the downstream purchase is stable, and the enterprise shipment is relatively smooth. Individual enterprises raise their quotation slightly according to their own shipment clearance. At present, the production cost pressure of cryolite manufacturers is large, the enterprises start to reduce the load and run, the inventory is small, the enterprises reflect the stability and improvement of downstream demand, and the operators are mainly wait-and-see.

Future forecast: the short-term cryolite market will remain stable for the time being and pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (May 10): 5010 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market price trend of acetic acid continues to rise today, and the average market price in East China has increased by 5.92% compared with the previous working day. At present, the market supply is tight due to the unit maintenance and low load operation of individual acetic acid enterprises. After the sharp price adjustment of various enterprises last weekend, the market atmosphere is positive, individual enterprises make up the rise after hearing the news, and the quotation has been increased. At present, the downstream market entry has recovered stable, purchasing on demand, and the mentality of the industry is mainly wait-and-see, The quotation of enterprises may continue to rise slightly.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will be sorted and operated at a high level, and the specific attention will be paid to the market supply.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (May 9): 17425 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China decreased by 0.17% compared with the previous working day, and the market is weak. There is no news release in the market. At present, the supplier has many sets of TDI device storage and maintenance plans, and the market supply is tight. However, affected by public health events, the terminal industry is depressed, the downstream demand purchase is limited, the market trading is light, and the market situation is mainly stalemate in terms of supply and demand performance. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16700-17000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17200-17500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: wait and see the TDI market in the later stage, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

After the festival, the acetone factory raised the listing price for many times, the market fundamentals improved, and the cargo holders had a strong atmosphere of pushing up, mainly supporting the price. Large holders of goods followed the rise of the factory. Supported by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream delivery was optimistic, and the market rose rapidly. In East China, the average offer during the week rose from 5550 to 5880 yuan / ton, up 5.95% after the festival. As of the press date, the negotiation in East China is 5880 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong is 6000 yuan / ton, the offer in Yanshan surrounding areas is 5900 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 6100 yuan / ton.

The price of raw material pure benzene was raised, and the spot transaction was pushed up to more than 9000 yuan / ton. The market negotiation was positive, and the downstream was in conflict with the high price. After the pre Festival phased replenishment, most of the venues were just in need of follow-up. On the other hand, the mainstream transaction of propylene in Shandong was 8750 yuan / ton, and the rise of international crude oil was good, with positive increase.

The downstream isopropanol market rose slightly, the factory shipments increased, and the negotiated price in East China rose to 7200 yuan / ton with the support of cost. The transaction price in Shandong was 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The downstream BPA fluctuated in a narrow range, and the ex factory price of Changchun chemical rose to 17000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the business agency, the acetone factory has raised the listing price for many times, the mentality of the cargo holders has improved, and the atmosphere in the venue has improved. The business agency expects that the acetone market will still operate strongly next week, and the negotiation reference in East China is 5900 yuan / ton.

Market analysis

On the two days after the festival, the price of magnesium in different regions increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of the 6th, the average price in the domestic market was 37166.67 yuan / ton, up 2.29% from that before the festival. The transaction price of magnesium ingot market was concentrated at 37000-37500 yuan / ton.

In terms of magnesium plants, the pre holiday price protection operation has been continued. The recent trading volume has improved relatively. In addition, the epidemic situation has improved, the market confidence has warmed up, and the factory has tentatively increased. However, the overall market is still in a tepid state, and the magnesium market continues to rise, which needs to be studied. In terms of raw materials, the ferrosilicon and blue carbon markets are depressed, and the prices show a slight downward trend. The coal is subject to strengthened control by the policy section, which affects the mentality of some coke enterprises. The magnesium plant has obviously pressed the price of raw materials, but the upstream price concession is not willing.

Business analysts believe that at present, magnesium ingots are in a tentative upward adjustment stage, which still depends on the release degree of subsequent demand. In the short term, the downstream just needs to replenish the warehouse to provide price support. However, considering that the raw material price is still high, the overall downstream demand is flat, and the subsequent price increase confidence of magnesium city is insufficient.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 5 was 4975 yuan / ton, up 2.05% from the previous trading day and down 3.08% year-on-year.

Oil prices continued to rise on Thursday after the EU formulated a plan to impose new sanctions on Russia, including a crude oil embargo within six months, offsetting concerns about weak demand in China, and the cost of ethylene glycol was well supported. Ethylene glycol is running with strong crude oil today. The recent cargo negotiation of MEG outer plate is around us $635-655 / ton, but the downstream polyester construction is still at a low level, and the current weak pattern of production and sales continues.

Forecast: interval shock.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid on April 1 was 13033 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid on April 29 was 13400 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.81% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In April, domestic caprolactam prices rose first and then fell. In mid and early April, the caprolactam market rose. The high level of raw material market is strong, and the cost of caprolactam is well supported. Some enterprises have reduced the production of devices or parking, and the supply in the yard has been reduced. In late April, the price of caprolactam fluctuated and fell. The price of raw materials continues to rise, and the cost of caprolactam is under great pressure. Downstream procurement is followed up as needed, and the on-site trading volume is acceptable. At present, the supply and demand game of caprolactam is dominated by stalemate operation. Follow up the downstream procurement as needed and operate carefully on site. Near the end of the month, the transaction was good, the downstream began to buy one after another, and the enterprises raised the price according to the trend. As of April 29, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14500 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14500 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14500 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water price is 14100 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year. It is accepted and sent to East China.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose and fell this month. In the first half of April, the price of pure benzene began to fall after rising slightly. Several units in the downstream of pure benzene were shut down, the operating rate of styrene in the main downstream decreased significantly, the demand decreased, and pure benzene continued to weaken. After stabilizing in the second half of April, it began to rebound and rise. Near the end of the month, the enthusiasm of the lower reaches to fill the empty space increased, the domestic market negotiation rebounded, the enterprise inventory pressure decreased, and the price rebounded. The rising price of downstream styrene and the increase of unit operating rate have improved the demand for pure benzene.

The domestic market of downstream PA6 fluctuated in a narrow range this month. In April, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at about 70% in the month, with limited change. In terms of news, the situation in Russia and Ukraine became more and more tense during the month. As a result, the impact of the international crude oil price on the cost side of PA6 was not as obvious as expected. The supply side of PA6 continues the previous abundant pattern, the demand of downstream enterprises is weak, and the on-site trading is general. Stimulated by caprolactam in the last ten days, the company followed up the replenishment, but the operating rate of downstream enterprises in the month was general. In addition, the health incident has hindered the logistics in many places in East China, resulting in the weakening of some PA6 demand.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise and the cost support is good. The downstream began to purchase one after another, the on-site transactions were smooth, and caprolactam increased in line with the trend. Under favorable factors, caprolactam market is expected to rise in the short term.

In April, the domestic butyl acetate market continued the trend of the previous month and continued to decline, deepening the decline compared with the previous month. Butyl acetate continued to fall in the absence of supply and demand support and cost decline. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate decreased by 4.59% this month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 9600-9900 yuan / ton.

First of all, in terms of cost, acetic acid and n-butanol both came out of the decline, especially acetic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of acetic acid was 18.39%. The supply performance was loose this month. Shanghai Huayi acetic acid plant returned to full load operation, and the acetic acid plant of the main manufacturer in Shandong returned to normal operation. The on-site supply increased. Affected by public health events, logistics and transportation were blocked, freight rates increased and some regions did not transport. The downstream demand weakened, the market supply accumulated, and the market mentality of buying up but not buying down. The acetic acid market continued to operate weakly. The decline in cost is the direct reason for the weak price of butyl acetate.

In terms of upstream n-butanol, n-butanol fell by 4% this month. Especially in the first ten days of April, after the Qingming Festival, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol market in Shandong is general, and the inventory of some n-butanol factories has accumulated. Under the supply pressure, the factory reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol for three consecutive days on June, July and August, with a cumulative reduction range of 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, due to the limited factors of logistics and transportation, the overall supply and demand circulation of n-butanol in the field is still slow, Downstream users are cautious about spot purchase of raw materials.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers remained stable this month, and butyl acetate showed the characteristics of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and most operators are bearish. Due to the epidemic, transportation is limited, and the rise of freight rates has further suppressed some demand. The substitution of other raw materials has occupied part of the demand for butyl, and the weak demand is the fundamental reason for the decline of butyl price. Excluding the weak supply and demand, it can be seen that the rise and fall of butyl acetate mainly comes from the guidance of downward cost.

Future forecast: at present, the cost side is relatively weak, especially acetic acid, but from the historical trend, the trend of butyl acetate and n-butanol is more relevant, which also confirms that the decline of n-butanol and butyl acetate is not as large as that of acetic acid. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply pressure is not large. When the demand is not followed up in time, there is little hope of market rebound in the later stage of the market. In the near future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of double raw materials.

In April, the domestic phenol market was first depressed and then increased, and the overall decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic phenol market was 10645 yuan / ton on April 1, 10337 yuan / ton on April 30, down 2.89% in the month. On April 21, the domestic phenol Market offered 100087 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 5.24%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 10300 yuan / ton, that in South China was 10350 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 10325 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market

The domestic market remained depressed in the early April, but the market remained depressed in the early April. In the first ten days, with the replenishment of port inventory, the inventory increased to nearly 40000 tons, but the logistics pressure is still large, the terminal demand is poor, and the phenomenon of domestic goods urging delivery, the phenol market once fell to 10000 yuan / ton. Then, taking into account the cost pressure, the phenomenon of domestic goods expediting slowed down, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and the cargo holders cautiously explored the rise.

Pure benzene rose after falling in April. On April 1, the price was 8400-8650 yuan / ton (the average price was 8540 yuan / ton); On April 30, the price was 8400-8750 yuan / ton (the average price was 8590 yuan / ton), with a monthly increase of 0.59%, an increase of 17.35% over the same period last year. Affected by public health events, the overall operating load of pure benzene and downstream products decreased, the demand for pure benzene was insufficient, and the price fell continuously. The logistics transportation between some regions is blocked, and the price difference is obvious. In the last ten days of the month, downstream enterprises filled the gap in advance, the market turnover increased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded; In addition, Sinopec’s continuous rise before the festival also gave positive support to the market.

The downstream bisphenol a market fluctuated in a narrow range as a whole, and continued to be 16400-16800 yuan / ton in the month. Due to the limited product supply, it also alleviated the decline in demand caused by the decline in downstream operating rate to a certain extent. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the market may have downward expectations.

In May, the phenol ketone units of Yangzhou Shiyou and Zhongsha Tianjin Petrochemical were overhauled to alleviate the supply pressure. The logistics and transportation are expected to improve in May. The business society expects that the phenol market may have upward expectations in May, but there are frequent ups and downs during the period affected by various uncertain factors.

On April 28, the rare earth index was 785 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.05% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 189.67% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The price of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series has declined, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has declined by 2000 yuan / ton to 845500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 1035000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 865000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 885000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1085000 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.6 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 259500 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium metal is 3.32 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have declined. The recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, while the price of terbium is higher. The downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will remain stable in the later stage.