According to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic nitrile rubber price was 17800 yuan / ton on the 20th, down 1.11% from the previous day. Domestic nitrile rubber started at a high load, and the supply side is relatively sufficient. The start-up of downstream insulation foaming, rubber hose and other industries was as low as 50-60%, the demand for nitrile rubber was weak, and the market transaction was light. Since July, the ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises has been significantly reduced, and the market quotation of nitrile rubber has gradually declined. As of July 20, the mainstream market quotation of Lanhua nitrile n41e was 16300-16900 yuan / ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 market mainstream reported 17000~17500 yuan / ton; Russian nitrile 2665 market mainstream reported 169~17500 yuan / ton, Nandi nitrile 1502 market mainstream reported 19000~20000.

 
Aftermarket forecast: the downstream start-up is low, coupled with loose supply, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will continue to be weak in the short term.

On July 19, the average market price of TDI in East China was 17275 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous working day, and the market continued to be weak. The inventory of major factories is not under pressure, the mentality of supporting the market is dominant, the downstream demand is weak, and a few just need to be followed up. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in some regions, the market trading atmosphere is light, the shippers give up profits to negotiate shipments, the quotation is reduced, and the mentality of the operators is partial to deadlock and wait-and-see. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16700-17100 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000-17400 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to be weak and the price will decline. Specific attention will be paid to market supply and downstream follow-up.

On July 18, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3712.50 yuan / ton, down 1.00% from the previous working day. At the end of last week, the quotations of some enterprises were reduced. On Monday, the domestic market was reorganized downward. At present, the downstream demand was limited, the follow-up of market entry purchase was insufficient, the on-site trading atmosphere was general, and the shipment of enterprises was poor. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, the quotations of enterprises were slightly reduced, the on-site supply was strong and the demand was weak, the mentality of the operators was stalemate, and the short-term acetic acid market waited and, Pay attention to the market transactions.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, aniline finished down in a narrow range this week. On July 8, the price in Shandong was 11800-12000 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; On July 15, the price in Shandong was 11800-12100 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12100-12500 yuan / ton, down 0.21% from last week and up 26.05% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: affected by the broad decline of crude oil, the outer disk pure benzene followed the weakness, driving the domestic market to lower the focus of negotiation. During the week, the turnover in Shandong was general, and the price difference with other regions widened. Due to the reduction of domestic trade ships, the inventory of East China ports this week decreased by 8000 tons compared with last week, and the market supply was relatively tight, with a limited overall decline during the week. On Friday (July 15), the price of pure benzene was 8600-9150 yuan / ton (the average price was 9009 yuan / ton), which was 2.79% lower than last week and 5.61% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price of domestic nitric acid fell this week. The domestic production price of nitric acid was 2917 yuan / ton on July 8 and 2833 yuan / ton on July 15. The price fell by 2.86% compared with last week and increased by 15.65% compared with the same period last year.

In the early stage, because aniline was near the cost line, the price was supported by the cost side. In addition, at the end of June, aniline plants were shut down for maintenance, the supply was reduced, and the price of aniline was strong. This week, as the operating rate rose slightly, and pure benzene fell with crude oil, aniline support weakened, and prices corrected downward in a narrow range.

3、 Aftermarket expectations

In terms of cost, pure benzene is still supported in the short term due to tight supply. If crude oil and the external market continue to fall, pure benzene may still fall.

In terms of nitric acid, due to the continued weakness of the raw material market of liquid ammonia and the flat delivery of nitric acid, the price of nitric acid is expected to decline slightly in the short term.

At present, the inventory of aniline enterprises is acceptable. A 100000 ton unit in Nanhua is shut down. The Jilin Cornell unit is expected to restart at the end of the month. The supply side support is acceptable. The downstream rigid demand is mainly expected, and the short-term narrow range consolidation of aniline is expected to be the main. If crude oil and pure benzene continue to fall, it may drive aniline to fall. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

On July 14, the average market price of TDI in East China was 17375 yuan / ton, down 0.57% from the previous working day, and the market was weak. Recently, the epidemic has been repeated in some regions, the downstream demand is weak, and the cargo holders negotiate to ship at a profit. The atmosphere in the venue is still light, the enthusiasm of the downstream market entry is not good, the mentality of the operators is deadlocked, the on-site buying is general, and the market is weak. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17100-17400 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17400-17700 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will focus on wait-and-see consolidation, and the price may fluctuate slightly, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

On July 13, the price of acetic acid continued to decline, and the average market price in East China fell by 0.65% compared with the previous working day. The quotation of enterprises was stable and small, the downstream demand continued to be weak, the follow-up of purchase in the market was insufficient, the on-site trading atmosphere was general, the enterprise shipments were poor, and the inventory pressure was large. In order to maintain the rhythm of delivery, the quotation of enterprises was slightly reduced, the on-site supply was strong and the demand was weak, the mentality of the operators was deadlocked and wait-and-see, and the short-term acetic acid market continued to be weak, and the, Pay attention to the market transactions.

On July 12, the price trend of acetic acid decreased slightly, and the average market price in East China decreased by 0.32% compared with the previous working day. The quotation of enterprises was stable and small, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was general. The follow-up of market entry was dominated by the continuation of rigid demand. The trading atmosphere on the floor was weak, the shipment of enterprises was poor, and the inventory pressure increased. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, the price of acetic acid decreased slightly, the mentality of the industry was mainly stalemate and wait-and-see, and the short-term acetic acid market continued to operate weakly, The price may be reduced slightly, with specific attention to market transactions.

According to the data of business agency, on July 8, the average p value of oil glycol was 4608.33 yuan / ton, down 71.67 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, down 1.53% year-on-year.

Upstream, oil prices rose, continued to be supported by concerns about the prospects of tight supply, but the global economic recession curbed the rise in oil prices. And there is still uncertainty on the supply side of crude oil in the later stage, which may continue to consolidate. At present, ethylene glycol is at a loss, and the operating rate of MEG device is still gradually decreasing. Although the port inventory has been slightly removed from the warehouse, the overall inventory remains high. As of July 7, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.248 million tons, a decrease of 24900 tons, a decrease of 2.02%, and a decrease of 21000 tons, a decrease of 1.71%, compared with Monday. The supply and demand side is weak, the production reduction plan of downstream polyester plants is gradually implemented, and the demand side continues to be weak.

Prediction: narrow range oscillation.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on July 9 was 120.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.49% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business society showed that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride was stable in the first ten days of July, and the mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 2230 yuan / ton. So far this month, the manufacturer has normal production, sufficient spot inventory, demand and transaction.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: the monitoring data of business agency showed that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly in early July, from 270 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 260 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.04%. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market is relatively stable, some manufacturers limit production, and the downstream demand is general; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has fallen slightly, the cost support is general, the downstream ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, the price of polyaluminum chloride has been consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention is general.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG price fell after a slight rise in early July, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the mainstream quotation on the 1st was 5860 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 10th was 5786 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 1.3%. The LNG market was weak, and the terminal demand was sluggish. Manufacturers mostly cut prices, and the market is bearish. It is expected that LNG will continue to decline in the short term.

Future forecast: in the near future, the cost of raw materials is still weak, the downstream demand continues to be light, and the transaction is general. It is expected that the market of polyaluminum chloride will be stable in the middle of the year, with little change.

Price trend

On the 7th, the propylene market was adjusted at a low level, and the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7400-7550 yuan / ton. The current market supply is loose, and most downstream products are weak, with poor demand. Although the cost side support is acceptable, under the guidance of demand, enterprises give up profits and take away goods, and the price keeps bottoming out.

Forecast: it is difficult to break the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. It is expected that the propylene price will be adjusted at a low level in the near future.