Price trend in February

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of cryolite in February was stable. On February 28, the average market price in Henan was 7975 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 10.00%.

In February, the domestic cryolite market ran smoothly, and the quotations of cryolite enterprises were stable and slightly changed during the month. Some enterprises were slightly reduced according to their own shipments after the festival. The upstream operating rate was low, the raw material supply was tight, the cryolite enterprises were limited to start operations, the enterprise inventory remained rational, the cryolite market price was high, the downstream side just needed to purchase, the cryolite enterprises shipped as needed, the focus of market negotiations was general, and the cryolite market was wait-and-see operation.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market declined in February. Due to the requirements of safety and environmental protection, some units in fluorite mines were put into operation, but the downstream stock was sufficient, and the purchasing enthusiasm was general. The fluorite market price fell back. The average price of fluorite at the end of the month was 3050.00 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from 3156.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The market price of the downstream aluminum market fell in February. The average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market at the end of the month was 18340 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from the average price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the aluminum price recovered in January, the aluminum market was less than expected. The aluminum price fell in mid-February, and the current price is at the low level in the month.

Aftermarket forecast

The price of cryolite raw materials fell, but the supply of goods was tight, the support for cryolite was still in place, the downstream aluminum market was sluggish, the demand performance was insufficient, and the volume of cryolite was limited. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market was wait-and-see attitude, and it was expected that the cryolite market would continue to be stable in the future.

Aluminum price fell by 3.37% in February

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 28, 2023 was 18340 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from the aluminum price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (February 1). After the aluminum price recovered in January, the aluminum price fell in mid-February, and the current price is at the low level in the month.

In the long term, the current price is in the broad range of the shock platform after the high correction, and the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton, up 5.10% compared with the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022). The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5, and the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19536.67 yuan/ton, down 6.13%.

Overview of fundamentals

1. Inventory data

As of February 27, the domestic mainstream social inventory was 1.251 million tons, 1.076 million tons compared with the social inventory at the beginning of the month (February 2), and 185000 tons accumulated.

2. Production data

In January, China’s domestic primary aluminum output was 3.4 million tons, with an average daily output of about 110000 tons, slightly lower than that in December last year. Regional supply: Sichuan and Guangxi continue to resume production, with a total of 16 tons expected to resume production in February; Gansu and Inner Mongolia’s new investment is expected to reach 40000 tons this month; Yunnan is expected to reduce production by 3.7-80 million tons; Overall, at the end of February, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum fell back to 39.6 million tons.

3. Downstream commencement

By the end of the month, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises had risen to 61.8%. From the perspective of products, the operating rate of aluminum strip and aluminum foil plate is relatively good, except for aluminum alloy plate. Downstream operation has a positive trend as a whole, and it is expected that the short-term operation rate will maintain an upward trend.

Macroscopic factors

The minutes of the meeting of the Federal Reserve from January 31 to February 1 said that most officials supported the interest rate increase by 25 basis points, because the slower pace “will enable them to better evaluate the progress of the economy in reducing the inflation rate to 2%.” However, a “small number” of participants at the meeting directly supported the interest rate increase by 50 basis points, or said that “they may support” the interest rate increase by 50 basis points at that time. The US PCE data in January outperformed expectations, which may push up the expectations of the Federal Reserve for higher terminal interest rates to some extent. The US dollar rose strongly, and non-ferrous commodities were under pressure as a whole. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase the tightening force has made the aluminum price downward under pressure.

Aftermarket forecast

On the supply side, the recent production reduction of boots in Yunnan has been implemented, and the production reduction capacity is slightly higher than expected, and the positive expectation in the early stage is gradually digested. From the inventory data, the downstream consumption has improved, the operating rate of processing enterprises has risen significantly, but it is less than expected, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and it is still in the trend of accumulation, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods is still out of stock. In the short term, electrolytic aluminum will be suppressed by macro factors, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly weak, and the downstream consumption will be seen in the future.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on February 27, 2023 was 413.05 yuan/g, down 2.05% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and up 0.77% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1).

According to the data of the Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on February 27, 2023 was 4859.33 yuan/kg, down 0.15% per day, down 6.25% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and down 9.09% from the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 5345 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), an increase of 11.24%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the precious metal gold and silver will consolidate at high levels, and fall slightly in February.

Macro fundamentals

The US PCE data in January performed better than expected, which may push up the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s higher terminal interest rate to some extent. The US dollar rose strongly, and the bulk was under pressure as a whole. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to increase the tightening force made the precious metals fall under pressure.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s Euro short-term interest rate (ESTR) rose to 3.76% in November 2023 from about 3.65% before the release of US data. According to the survey of economists, the core inflation rate of the euro zone in February, which is expected to be released on Thursday, will remain at a record level of 5.3%. European Central Bank President Lagarde said earlier that the European Central Bank is likely to continue to implement the plan of raising interest rates by 50 basis points when it meets next month.

Precious metal aftermarket

Precious metals are relatively sensitive to macro fundamental factors due to their strong monetary attributes. The expected tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy also put some pressure on the continued upward trend of precious metal prices, including the upward energy. In the short term, it is expected that the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 24, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8366 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the average price of 8383 yuan/ton on February 20.

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 24, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8150 yuan/ton, which was 1.21% lower than the average price of 8250 yuan/ton on February 20.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of February 24, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200-8600 yuan/ton, that in Yunnan is about 8500 yuan/ton, and that in Hubei is about 8100-8600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7550-8900 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. The overall market trading situation is light. Under the bearish mood of the downstream, the buying enthusiasm is not high, the high-end price is difficult to deal, the operation is cautious, and the low market price frequently depresses the market confidence. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is about 31000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation.

In the aspect of raw phosphorus ore, the overall phosphorus ore market was stable at a high level this week. As of February 24, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side:

The supply of phosphoric acid market was stable this week, and there was no major change in the supply side. Downstream procurement on demand is still cautious and wait-and-see. On-site trading is general, and terminal demand needs to be released.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of the Business Society, due to the increase in the price of raw phosphorus and the strengthening of cost support, the market trend of thermal phosphoric acid has begun to rebound, and manufacturers have more willingness to increase. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of Business News Agency, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8266.67 yuan/ton as of February 23, which was the same as that of Monday.

Recently, the melamine market has stabilized and adjusted. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen, and the cost support has risen. In addition, some enterprises in the early stage have reduced prices and absorbed orders. The market pressure has been eased. Some low-end prices have been recalled, and the supply side operating rate has increased slightly. The demand side follow-up is still just needed. The market atmosphere is general, and the focus of the melamine market is mainly stable.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly on February 22, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.51% from February 21, and up 4.54% from the same period last year.

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of raw material urea is on the high side, the pressure on the cost side is increasing, the terminal demand is recovering, and the market transactions are just needed. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will probably wait and see, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on February 20 was 105.74, which was the same as yesterday, down 25.87% from the highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 25.40% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot: According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market continued to decline slightly in mid-February, with a range of 0.54%: the main market price was 1966.25 yuan/ton on the 11th, and it was reduced to 1956.25 yuan/ton on the 20th. At present, the water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have sufficient inventory, the downstream purchase orders are general, and the domestic polyaluminum chloride market is not supported enough, with a moderate and small decline.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business Agency, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid rose steadily in mid-February, and the market price was about 155-164.00 yuan/ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has risen slightly recently; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased; The price in the downstream market weakened slightly, and the purchase intention was general. According to comprehensive analysis, hydrochloric acid was mainly subject to a small fluctuation in recent years.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of the Business News Agency, in the middle of February, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose from 5724 yuan/ton on February 11 to 5952 yuan/ton on February 15, then fell to 5902 yuan/ton on February 17, and then rose to 6040 yuan/ton on February 20, an overall increase of 5.52% in the current ten days. Cost support is favorable, and domestic LNG prices are expected to rise in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast: the raw material has risen slightly in a stable manner, but the downstream demand continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient, and the supply is large and the demand is small. It is expected that the market of polyaluminum chloride will not change much in the near future, mainly due to weak shocks.

Domestic cobalt price fell first and then rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 20, the cobalt price was 290500 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the cobalt price of 289500 yuan/ton on February 13. The demand of cobalt market recovered, the international cobalt price fluctuated and fell, the domestic cobalt market stopped falling and rebounded, and the cobalt price fell first and then rose.

Cobalt and nickel prices are facing a reversal

As of February 20, the price of cobalt sulfate was 39500 yuan/ton, while the price of nickel sulfate was 40000 yuan/ton, and the price of nickel sulfate was inversely higher than the price of cobalt sulfate. From the perspective of cost, the necessity of cobalt removal became weaker, and high nickel and low cobalt became the chicken ribs. It is expected that the demand for cobalt in the future is expected to increase.

Local new energy vehicle policies

Eight departments, including the First Equipment Industry Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the Notice on Organizing the Pilot Work of Comprehensive Electrification of Vehicles in the Public Sector to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry; Nanjing continues to implement the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles; Hunan pointed out in the “20 items of stable growth” that the policy of replacing new energy vehicles with capital subsidies should be continued to drive the production and consumption of new energy vehicles; The People’s Government of Guangdong Province is now printing and distributing the Implementation Plan of Guangdong Province’s Carbon Peak, which proposes to vigorously develop the new energy automobile industry; Sichuan Province should implement the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax on new energy vehicles and carry out a series of consumption promotion activities such as new energy vehicles. The new energy vehicle sales are expected to rise, and the demand for cobalt market is expected to rise.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the Business News Agency, believes that the international cobalt price fluctuates and falls, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to rise, and the domestic cobalt market demand is expected to warm up. High nickel and low cobalt have become chicken ribs, the comparability of battery cobalt removal has weakened, and the demand for cobalt has increased. In the future, the new energy vehicle market is still optimistic, and the cobalt market demand is expected to increase, but the international cobalt price is still falling, and the cobalt market is expected to stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8383 yuan/ton, down 4.10% from the average price of 8741 yuan/ton on February 13.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average market price of 85-content wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8250 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from the average price of 8800 yuan/ton on February 13.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of February 17, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200-8600 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 8500 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 8000-8600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7550-9200 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. The overall market trading situation is light. Under the bearish mood of the downstream, the buying enthusiasm is not high, the high-end price is difficult to deal, the operation is cautious, and the low market price frequently depresses the market confidence. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is about 31000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall high level of the phosphorus ore market this week was relatively strong. As of February 17, 2023, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side:

This week, the supply of phosphoric acid market was stable, the downstream demand was low, and there were few transactions on the market. The release of terminal demand is slow, and now it is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the trend of the phosphoric acid market has continued to decline recently. The price of raw yellow phosphorus fell, and the cost support weakened. Downstream demand is weak and market trading is weak. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1230 yuan/ton on February 10 and 1186 yuan/ton on February 16. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 3.52% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of ammonium sulfate was weak and the trend was mainly downward. Due to the weakening of downstream demand, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate was significantly reduced this week. The start-up load of domestic units was increased, and domestic ammonium sulfate continued to be in a weak market. This week, the export demand of ammonium sulfate was still weak, and the international market performance was poor. As of February 16, the mainstream ex-factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1150 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex-factory price in Shandong Province is 1110-1200 yuan/ton.

The market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises was stable this week. The price of raw material urea fell and cost support weakened. At present, compound fertilizer mainly sends orders from old customers. At present, the transaction on the market is weak, and dealers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulfate from the Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium sulfate has continued to be weak in recent days. The domestic and foreign market demand is weak, the downstream purchase is small, and the atmosphere of transaction on the market is not good. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will move downward in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, since February, the demand of terminal paper printing and other industries has recovered, and the market of hydrogen peroxide has risen. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 750 yuan/ton. On February 14, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 766 yuan/ton, up 2.22%.

Since February, the manufacturers of terminal paper printing and other industries have resumed work, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide has increased. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers still shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is tight. The hydrogen peroxide market was supported by a lot of profits. The mainstream quotation in Shandong was 670 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 40 yuan/ton.

According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst of the Business Agency, the positive factors have been realized in succession, and the hydrogen peroxide market in the future will gradually fall.