Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (December 5th): 11740.00/ton

On December 5th, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province slightly increased, with a price increase of 160 yuan/ton compared to November 4th, an increase of 1.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 26.24%. Upstream propylene prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream plasticizer market has slightly increased, leading to an increase in downstream demand. Supply exceeds demand, leading large factories to increase their prices.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 11800 yuan/ton.

The price of acetic anhydride has significantly increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 4th, the price of acetic anhydride was 6075 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.28% compared to the price of 5662.50 yuan/ton on November 27th. The continuous failures of acetic acid enterprises have led to a decrease in acetic acid supply and a significant increase in acetic acid prices; The price of raw materials has increased, making it difficult for acetic anhydride enterprises to purchase raw materials. The operating load of acetic anhydride enterprises has decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride has increased significantly this week.

The price of acetic acid has significantly increased this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of December 4th, the price of acetic acid was 3650 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 14.6% compared to the price of 3175 yuan/ton on November 27th. Part of the acetic acid enterprises have started production and stopped production of equipment, leading to a reduction in production capacity. Coupled with low inventory levels among manufacturers, the supply of acetic acid has decreased, and downstream demand for acetic acid has stabilized. Acetic acid manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, resulting in a significant increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data Analyst believes that acetic acid companies operate at low loads, resulting in a decrease in acetic acid supply, an increase in acetic acid prices, and an increase in the cost of acetic anhydride; The supply of acetic acid has decreased, and acetic anhydride enterprises are purchasing raw materials at high prices. The operating load of acetic anhydride enterprises has decreased, and the production of acetic anhydride has decreased. Acetic anhydride enterprises have a strong willingness to rise. Cost support, coupled with a decline in the production of acetic anhydride enterprises, is expected to lead to an increase in the price of acetic anhydride in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China continued to rise in November, with a strong market trend. On November 30th, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 1030.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.37% compared to the average ex factory price of 943.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

This month, the sulfur market in East China has risen strongly, with active inquiries in the end market. Downstream factories and traders have good demand, and the market trading atmosphere is positive. Refinery shipments are smooth, and sulfur prices have risen slightly. At the same time, some manufacturers have low inventory and a strong intention to push up prices. With stable follow-up from downstream, sulfur prices have continued to rise, and downstream demand has weakened at the end of the month. Some refineries have adjusted their prices based on their own shipment situation, The price of sulfur has slightly fallen.

The downstream sulfuric acid market saw a significant increase in November, with a market price of 258.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 302.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 17.05% within the month. During the month, mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers operated at low loads, maintained low inventory levels, and the market supply performance was tight. Downstream demand was active, and sulfuric acid enterprises shipped smoothly. In addition, high raw material prices led to a strong increase in sulfuric acid prices.

In November, the market for ammonium phosphate showed a strong upward trend, with a stable winter storage market at the terminal. Downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, and enterprises placed more orders on behalf of others. The market supply was tight, and the positive news was concentrated. As a result, the price of ammonium phosphate in the market rose rapidly. In the latter half of the month, the upward trend of the ammonium phosphate market was temporarily suspended, and the market trend stabilized. As of November 30th, the average price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in the market was 3450.00 yuan/ton, which is 11.11% higher than the average price of 3150.00 yuan/ton on November 1st.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from Business Society believe that sulfur enterprises are operating normally, with low inventory as the main focus. Market supply is stable, and terminal market demand is weakening. Downstream demand is mostly followed up on demand, and demand side support is reduced. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will consolidate and operate in the later stage.

In November, the domestic dimethyl ether market in Henan fell weakly. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3700 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 3650 yuan/ton on November 30th. The monthly decline was 1.35%, a 21% decrease compared to the same period last year.

As of November 30th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3900 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3650 yuan/ton

In November, the overall performance of the domestic dimethyl ether market was weak, with a weak and stable operation. At the beginning of the month, raw material prices were weak, and the mentality of the industry was weak. Upstream supply tightened, but downstream demand further weakened, leading to a decrease in the price of dimethyl ether. Subsequently, the market entered a stalemate and consolidation stage, with weak supply and demand on the exchange and a lack of positive signals to guide the market. The quotation remained stable until the end of the month.

In November, the raw material methanol market fluctuated and rose. Due to the impact of supply and demand, prices fluctuated all the way. At the end of the month, the market was boosted by a decrease in imported resources, resulting in a wave of upward trend.

Overall, the contradiction between supply and demand in the dimethyl ether market has intensified, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and tight profits. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in November. On November 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5844 yuan/ton. On November 29th, the average price was 5698 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 2.5% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in November. In the first half of this month, the preference for futures market trends drove up the confidence in the spot market. PVC spot prices rose, but in the first half of the month, upstream calcium carbide market prices significantly declined, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange became weak, leading to a decline in market prices. In the middle of the month, be cautious and wait, as the PVC spot market lacks confidence and prices fluctuate and decrease. In the latter half of the month, the futures market was mainly in a downward trend, with the spot market being heavily suppressed and prices falling. Downstream demand for purchases was the main focus, with on-demand purchases available. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5430-5870 yuan/ton.

On November 28th, international crude oil futures prices rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, with an increase of $1.55 or 2.1%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 81.47 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.60 US dollars or 2.0%. The market expects that OPEC+, an oil producing country, may extend and deepen production cuts, leading to a rebound in oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in November. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.67% at the end of the month. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early December, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the spot market price of PVC has fallen this month, and downstream demand is affected by the performance of the real estate data market, resulting in relatively weak market demand. In addition, the decline in carbide prices and poor performance of the futures market have limited support for the PVC spot market overall. It is expected that the PVC market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November

According to data from Business Society, on November 28th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4000 and 4250 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot manufacturers in Central China have a price range of 4000 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4250 yuan/ton to the outside world.

On November 27th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in the Asian market in China was 477 US dollars per ton; The landed price in Southeast Asia is $485 per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Device dynamics

The 1 million ton unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical stopped operation last weekend, and the restart time is yet to be determined; The 150000 ton plant of Xinjiang Tianying was shut down on November 23, and the restart is yet to be determined; The 260000 ton plant of Inner Mongolia Jianyuan has gradually restarted recently, and it is expected to produce products in early December; The 300000 ton plant of Xinjiang Tianye was shut down on November 16th, and the restart is yet to be determined; The 300000 ton unit of Shanxi Meijin will be shut down on November 15th, expected to take about 20 days; A 600000 ton unit in Xinjiang is expected to be put into trial operation and the product is expected to be available by the end of the month.

Weakened cost support

On November 27th, the central parity rate (CFR) for Northeast Asia Ethylene Gold was $861 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton from the central parity rate of $881 per ton at the beginning of the month (November 1st).

Downstream demand

The operating load of downstream polyester is relatively stable. On November 27th, the polyester operating rate was 88.72%, and the polyester factory load remained around 88%. On the terminal side, the operating load of the weaving machine is 85%, and the operating load of the elastic weaving machine is 91%. Both have increased compared to the previous period, mainly due to weather factors, which have led to an increase in demand for cold and warm orders.

High port inventory

As of November 27, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.1476 million tons, which is 1.0548 million tons higher than the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on October 23, an increase of 92800 tons. The port inventory is still relatively high.

Future market forecast

The reality of ethylene glycol supply and demand is loose, with high inventory, suppressing price increases. Currently, prices are low and cost support is strong. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a volatile sideways trend in the short term will increase, and the weak and volatile operation will continue at the end of the month.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen this month. On November 1st, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5733 yuan/ton. On November 27th, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5533 yuan/ton. This month, the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased by 3.49%.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic chlorinated paraffin prices fell in November. In the first half of November, the price of chlorinated paraffin fluctuated and fell. Insufficient cost support, weak market demand, insufficient downstream inquiries, and a focus on rigid demand. Manufacturers and distributors often adopt a wait-and-see attitude. In the second half of November, the price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable. The price of raw material liquid wax has fallen, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has risen first and then fallen, with average cost support. There is currently no significant improvement on the demand side, market trading is flat, and manufacturers are mainly stabilizing prices. As of November 27th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 5900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5000-5400 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly ups and downs from August 28, 2023 to November 20, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic chlorinated paraffin cycle saw mixed ups and downs. There was a significant decline in November, with the largest decline being -1.78% in the week of November 13th.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has fallen this month, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose first and then fell this month, with a fluctuating operation. The market trading is average, and the manufacturers have stable shipments.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has remained stable recently. At present, the raw material market is volatile, with average cost support. Downstream essential procurement, with relatively low market trading volume. It is expected that in the short term, the price of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable, with a focus on consolidation and operation.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin saw a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to Monday’s price.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has recently seen a narrow upward trend, with stable raw material glycerol prices as the main factor. The cost side is still supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

Supply and demand side: The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side is relatively low, with manufacturers mainly delivering contracts and spot supply being insufficient, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices. Downstream enterprises are observing the market demand and following up appropriately. The main downstream epoxy resin market is average, with limited support for the epichlorohydrin market. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of epoxy resin on November 24th was 13266.67, a decrease of 4.78% compared to November 1st (13933.33).

According to analysts from Business Society, in the short term, there is no pressure on the supply side to boost prices, but there is insufficient follow-up from the demand side, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may consolidate and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 23rd, the average spot market price of nickel was 12899.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous day and a year-on-year decrease of 37.05%.

The minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve indicate that it will maintain restrictive interest rates and will act cautiously in the future, with the possibility of further interest rate hikes. After the data was released, the US dollar stopped falling and turned higher, while US stocks fell. The sales data of existing homes in the United States for October has been declining for five consecutive months, reaching a new low since 2010. The sales data of existing homes is often seen as an indicator of economic health, thereby putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. The nickel surplus continues, and due to the expansion of steel mills’ production reduction scale, the cost side nickel iron price weakens. The spot market atmosphere is pessimistic, and the downward space for stainless steel expands; After the recovery of profits in steel mills, some enterprises began to resume production. The high inventory of stainless steel and nickel iron links led to internal competition in the iron mills, which further led to the collapse of stainless steel costs and negative feedback on the industrial chain, bringing certain pressure to the nickel market. Nickel is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan has remained stable recently. On November 21, the average market price in Henan was 7775 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7775 yuan/ton on November 13, with a month on month decrease of 1.27%.

Recently, the market situation of cryolite has remained stable and wait-and-see. Upstream product prices have remained high and firm, while cost support for cryolite still exists. Manufacturers’ quotations remain stable, while downstream companies still have resistance towards high priced cryolite. They often follow up on demand when entering the market, and cryolite is affected by costs, maintaining stable shipments. The market supply and demand are deadlocked, and the cryolite market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. As of November 21st, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8800 yuan/ton, and the price range remains unchanged.

The upstream fluorite market is firm and stable, with an average market price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 21, which is unchanged from the price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 13. The upstream mining of fluorite is tight, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. The spot supply of fluorite continues to be tight, and the demand side refrigerant trend is temporarily stable. The downstream market is not good, and manufacturers ship according to demand. At the same time, with the temperature decreasing and the increase of rain and snow weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited, which affects the stable operation of fluorite market prices and strong support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast: Upstream spot prices continue to be tight, cryolite enterprises are under pressure in production, devices are operating at low loads, manufacturers’ inventory is not under pressure, cryolite prices are strong, and demand is mainly wait-and-see. Purchasing is rational, but due to strong cost support, there is insufficient room for cryolite prices to fall. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will continue to operate on a wait-and-see basis, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.