Festival 1505 zhengtang force contract hit a new high, 1509 and 1505 contracts from the previous contract spread premium 130 yuan / ton premium into 30 yuan / ton, the market turned bullish price pattern arrangement. We believe that sugar futures led the stock status will continue, but the need to guard against the price difference is too large period of rapid price decline.

Clear and logical basis for the bull market

Logical basis for the current round of sugar prices is a huge gap between production and demand. 2014/2015 annual domestic sugar production is expected to 11.5 million tons, production and demand gap of nearly 300 million tons, which is to promote the main logic sugar prices. As of the end of January 2015, cumulative production of domestic sugar fell 1.735 million tons, the total sales volume reduction of 210,000 tons, sugar industry industrial stocks fell 1.522 million tons.

We can see that the sugar prices accompanied enlarge sales, belong to the volume of price in the market, indicating that the bull market is still very solid foundation of. February is expected monthly sugar production is still hard to have better performance, mainly caused by the production of sugar during the Spring Festival to stop.

Industrial policy-driven sugar prices

We believe that restrictions on imports are the main factors driving the rapid rise in the price of sugar. The domestic price of sugar in stark contrast to the rapid rise in the domestic price of sugar has hit five-year low, in-quota import prices fell to 3,500 yuan / ton, quota prices fell to 4,500 yuan / ton, both inside and outside the spread widened to an unprecedented high points. From October 2014 to January 2015, the national total sugar imports 1.468 million tons, of which only imported 385,000 tons in January, far below market expectations, on the one hand is the import quota record profits, on the other hand is cheap imported sugar could not flow into the domestic market, we believe that this huge difference greatly stimulated the market is expected to do more enthusiasm.

Lack of market forces short

After the formation of the bull market expectations, the number of investors in the market short decreased significantly. Sugar as the largest party on the spot market short, the crop production 1.8 million -200 million tons, decreased demand for hedging, sugar and even sell back there by bigger demand for the main business income, indirect enhancement the market to do more atmosphere. Midstream and downstream industry chain replenishment demand makes the spot market further strained resources, and create a virtual inventory through the futures market also many. Compared to the same period of the previous crop, sugar spot market Paohuo pressure disappeared, more and more reluctant to sell sugar to join the ranks of the spot price and easy going down the pattern established.

Based on the above analysis, the bull market in sugar prices is the norm, the norm is rising too far at this stage sugar price difference widened to 200-250 yuan / ton, the market risk-free arbitrage opportunities are up too far in the case, investors need to guard against the risk of rapid price correction.Barium chloride

January, the domestic market ended nitro chlorobenzene one pair o dip spread widening trend, ushered rally. As of February 25,

nitro chlorobenzene domestic mainstream price rose to 3600 yuan (t price, the same below), o-dichlorobenzene then rose to 8600

yuan. Compared to early January were up 50%, 7.5%, the difference has narrowed from the original 6300 yuan to 5000 yuan. Analysis

of the industry, in the context of traditional off-season before the Spring Festival, the market bottomed successfully began the

steady rise, mainly due to Sinopec Nanjing Chemical Company overhaul parking, and the recovery is still not normal after car

production, resulting in the sharp drop in the supply available to the community. Meanwhile, the next downstream business with low

inventory replenishment state, and other basic raw materials continue to rise too good boost market continues to stabilize.Sulfamic acid

Ningbo EVA market to stabilize prices, turnover is rare. Foam material reference offer: 5110J reported 11,300 / ton, 14-2 reported 12,400 yuan / ton, 18-12500 / ton, other material: cable 6110M12200 yuan / ton, the coating material 182L reported 12,600 yuan / ton.Polyvinyl Alcohol

February 25 Asian ethylene market closing prices stable, CFR Northeast Asia, the closing price of $ 949-951 / ton, CFR Southeast closing price of $ 959-961 / ton.Calcium Formate

According to the Russian and world market research of polyethylene and polypropylene, polyethylene 2013 Russian imports decreased by 14%, the data of the Russian Federal Customs Authority has proved this point. For the period 2010-2012, and this is in stark contrast to the strong growth in imports of Russian polyethylene.

Analysts estimate that in 2013 the proportion of imports of polyethylene polyethylene market and 34% of the Russian total.

In the import structure, whether it is expressed in kind, or in the form of value that the dominant other polyethylene, which accounted for more than 45% share of total imports of ethylene polymers. Linear polyethylene imports about 21% of the proportion.

It should be noted that, for many years Korea has been a major supplier of polyethylene products in Russia, which accounted for 17% of Russia’s share of total imports, followed by Saudi Arabia ranked Belarus third.

Supply to the Russian market of the three largest manufacturers of polyethylene for BOREALIS, SABIC and THE DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY. Among them, the proportion of BOREALIS supply companies accounted for 16% of Russia’s total imports of polyethylene.
Barium chloride

East PET bottle chip market remains sideways trend, discuss sentiment. Bottle feeding maintain mainstream offer 6800-6900 yuan / ton from mentioning sporadic slightly, to discuss the focus in the 6700-6800 yuan / ton, trading scarce Calcium peroxide

Mainstream PET bottle chip market in southern China steady, bottle materials offer 6800-7100 yuan / ton, the PRD short delivery, discuss the range at 6700-6850 yuan / ton, sporadic slightly lower turnover deserted.Sulfamic acid

“One year, but each year, only wish happy does not envy cents, along liking heart to make more money.” Although just a small laugh, but expressed the aspirations of the current methanol enterprises. Small year has passed, “Big Day” is approaching Chinese New Year methanol enterprises can lead a pleasant years?

According to the Futures Daily reporter, from the end of last year to this year, the high price of rare rare low-cost, most of the domestic methanol business experienced a “rainbow night” test. Especially this year, the main producing areas of the northwest lower methanol prices, even hovering in the cost line. And some small methanol business sales areas has long been discontinued, most manufacturers difficult.

However, it is worth mentioning that, methanol prices all the way down a turning point in the month.

“Pre-northwest price row library business, attracting a large number of downstream and brokers hunters, easing Northwest shipments difficult situation. And recently, as international crude oil prices rebounded, methanol brief rebound, a good majority of the Northwest business signings.” Yu Peng Sen in IT analyst reports, recently began to focus on the Northwest downstream firms with foreign mining goods during the Spring Festival, which contains methanol to olefins business, methanol aromatics business, DME companies. Foreign mining companies to focus effectively solve the difficult export during the Spring Festival methanol northwest problems. Peng Sen, according to estimates, the total amount of about 60,000 tons, “You could say, the main producing areas northwest of methanol sales short worry.”

On the other hand, by the warm winter weather, this year’s relatively smooth road transport, the main producing areas in the northwest of methanol supply during the Spring Festival and more companies have been pre-finished, some companies even have a single sign to the end of the sale, to ease pressure on the stock sharply. According to Yu information statistics, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, the main business of the current methanol prices in the 1350-1500 yuan / ton, on the whole, than the early rose 50 yuan / ton.

“In fact, at this time is in the northwest of companies to raise prices to convey a message to the market: the pressure has been lowered, low price is no longer” relevant personnel of a methanol production enterprises in Hebei sales department, told reporters, in fact, the progress of the current downstream stocking the Area mixed. Among them, there are still some companies have not yet Linyi stocking, in a wait period is expected to last two days before the last round of the stocking will usher in a small peak; downstream business Zibo, Dongying, or will continue to purchase more normal driving downstream. The Henan supply is relatively tight, smooth shipping companies, major business inventories remain low, pressure is not.

According to a German futures analyst Hu Xin introduced, methanol prices this year compared to last year, down more than 1000 yuan / ton, therefore, from a profit perspective, business is difficult to say “satisfactory.” But given the current methanol prices have rebounded into the bottom of the stage, the presence of rising international oil prices positive impact on DME, MTBE and methanol downstream polyolefin market, and demand is expected, there have been signs of improvement, which makes the business of the future methanol prices have expectations rise.

It can be said that at present, most of the methanol companies still see the dawn, saw hope, can live a pleasant year. Shrinkage rising market, exciting Festival, is a true portrayal of domestic methanol market.

For now, in the overall pressure on the stock is not the case, corporate holiday very price will be more intense, short-term or spot market after the holiday methanol a stable situation. “With the holiday if the downstream business up stock market will continue to rise in the short term momentum, but it also needs to be given with the international crude oil prices by very price.” Hussin believes that in the long term, if oil prices continue to rebound, methanol each lower operating rates rising, demand appears substantial positive, methanol market booming trend will continue to be staged.Sodium Metabisulphite

February 9, domestic potash prices temporarily stable. Among them, the mainstream ex-factory price of heavy potassium carbonate at

about 5700 yuan / ton, light potassium mainstream ex about 6000 yuan / ton; domestic industrial-grade potassium nitrate factory

price is about more than 4400 yuan / ton, mostly in agriculture level about 4100 yuan / ton, trading slightly lower prices. (These

prices have not yet distinguish detailed specification properties, only the data for reference). Manufacturers adjustments based

on market prices and specific factors, continued weak market operation, is not optimistic. Chinese New Year approaching,

manufacturers started reducing potash market rigid demand.(Barium chloride)

February 3, Beijing area feed grade vitamin A prices remain at near 115 yuan / kg, feed grade vitamin E (tocopherol) prices in the vicinity of 50 / kg, the price low. Vitamin A commodity index February 2 to 94.86, the highest point in the cycle compared with 136.24 points (2014-06-08) dropped by 30.37%, compared with March 10, 2013 the lowest point of 88.79 points, up 6.84 percent.Sulfamic acid