Trade name:TDI

Latest price (October 9): 14150.00 yuan / ton

On October 9, the price trend of TDI market rose slightly, and the average market price in East China increased by 0.89% compared with the previous working day. The distribution market in East China is waiting and sorting, and the market price increases. The quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market is about 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14000-15400 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The TDI unit of a factory in the North was restarted, the Yinguang and Wanhua units returned to normal operation, and the supply and storage increment was expected. The downstream was affected by the dual control of energy consumption, the start-up was low, the demand was weak, the atmosphere in the field was stalemate, the market trading was light, and the purchase was just needed. It is expected that the future market will rise slightly, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 8): 13037.5 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, the PVC price continued to rise on October 8, and the highest price of the main contract 2201 was 12615, which continued to rise, driving the strong follow-up of the spot market, with a daily increase of 3.57%, most of which rose to around 13000 yuan / ton. On the first day after the festival, the price of raw calcium carbide continued to rise to 7800 yuan / ton, the cost support continued to strengthen, and the downstream product industry started one after another, there was a certain replenishment demand. At the same time, the tight supply still existed, and multiple favorable conditions supported the PVC market to continue to rise.

Forecast: the market price of PVC is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, during the National Day, the hydrogen peroxide market rose and showed each other. The price of Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide was 850 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide was 1000 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Luxi Chemical hydrogen peroxide was 840 yuan / ton, stable.

After the festival, the terminal demand will fall, and the price of hydrogen peroxide may fall.

Trade name: propylene oxide

Latest price (September 30): 17333.33 yuan / ton

On September 30, the market price of propylene oxide in Shandong was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, up 8.11% compared with the beginning of the month and down 7.80% compared with the same period last year. At present, the price of raw material propylene rises slightly, the cost impact is limited, the follow-up of new orders of downstream polyether is general, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is slow.

It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may wait and see.

On September 30, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market was 276500-278500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 277500 yuan / ton, down 1500 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

On September 29, the tin commodity index was 142.25, up 1.65 points from yesterday, down 2.83% from the highest point of 146.39 in the cycle (2021-09-27), and up 231.89% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

On Wednesday night, the US dollar hit a high level in nearly a year, and the metal market was under pressure. The night market generally fell, Lun Xi fell 0.59% and Shanghai Xi fell 1.12%. In early trading today, Shanghai tin continued the trend of shock last night, down about 0.9%. As of the closing on September 30, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai tin 2111 was 270680 yuan / ton, down 1.86%. The spot market generally fell today, with the mainstream down 1500 yuan / ton, and the market trading was cold near the holiday. The main downstream areas are Guangdong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which are the key implementation areas of power restriction. The production restriction in the main production areas has a great impact on the demand for tin. Although the overall inventory is still low, the social inventory has rebounded recently.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8250.00 yuan / ton on September 1 and 9250.00 yuan / ton on September 30, with an increase of 12.12% during the month and 25.00% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11337.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 12962.50 yuan / ton on September 30, with a rise of 14.33% during the month and 27.24% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8750.00 yuan / ton on September 1 and 9333.33 yuan / ton on September 30, with an increase of 6.67% in the month and 9.80% compared with the same period last year.

In September, the overall rise of polyethylene spot market was dominated by favorable factors in the month. The three major polyethylene varieties increased to varying degrees, of which the increase of LDPE in East China was the most obvious, ranking third in the rubber and plastic list in September. During the month, the ex factory price of petrochemical increased one after another, with obvious increase range and strong cost support. Liansu futures market surged, bringing some positive support to the spot market. In addition, affected by the “double control” policy, some coal chemical enterprises have load reduction expectations, and the news boosted the market bullish sentiment. However, the overall trading atmosphere of the market during the month is general. Although it is currently in the peak demand season, the demand is not as expected. The merchant’s mentality is general, and the spot market price is mainly rising. The price of petrochemical enterprises continued to rise in early October.

Liansu futures rose sharply in September, bringing periodic benefits to the spot market. On September 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 9435, the highest price was 9975, the lowest price was 9300, the closing price was 9910, the former settlement price was 9385, the settlement price was 9570, up 525, or 5.59%, the trading volume was 523681, the position was 322940, and the daily position was increased 6162. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the futures market has increased, and the new price of petrochemical enterprises at the beginning of the month has increased. In addition, it is currently in the peak demand season. There is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the National Day holiday. In the future, there are still positive factors in the polyethylene market. It is expected that the PE spot market will still rise in October.

At present, the price of ethylene oxide is basically the same throughout the country. Except for central China, the ex factory price is 8200 yuan / ton and 8300 yuan / ton in Central China. The quotation of satellite Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton. During the shutdown and maintenance of Sanjiang silbang, Lianhong is in low load production, and no external quotation is available for the time being.

Upstream, ethylene prices showed a continuous upward trend this month. In the first ten days, GS Caltex, Gulei and other cracking units were shut down for maintenance. The Asian market was in short supply, and the supply and demand side was the dominant factor. The ethylene price deviated from the price trend of upstream crude oil and naphtha for a short time. Although the prices of upstream crude oil and naphtha weakened, the ethylene price in Asia still showed a rapid upward trend. In the later stage, the crude oil price continued to strengthen, further pushing up the ethylene price under the influence of dual factors.

In terms of ethylene oxide, it is obvious from the weekly k-column chart that the increase of ethylene oxide this month mainly occurred in the middle and late ten days. Due to the light terminal demand in the early stage, downstream manufacturers mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude towards ethylene oxide. Under the supply-demand game, the sharp rise of ethylene price has not fully supported the follow-up of ethylene oxide and downstream prices. Around the middle of the year, under the strong influence of the policy factors of “dual control” of energy consumption and power restriction, in addition to Sanjiang, which originally planned to overhaul the device, many manufacturers stepped on the “emergency brake” on the EO device to reduce the load for production or parking. Due to the shortage of goods and the continuous rise of raw material prices, the rising momentum of ethylene oxide has been released under the influence of the collective soaring prices in the chemical industry. The market is bound to have a certain impact on the downstream mentality in the short term. Under the situation of imbalance between supply and demand, the market transaction price is even much higher than the ex factory price.

The rise of ethylene oxide price has brought great pulling force, and the downstream market has also tightened the price of goods, which soared after the rise of ethylene oxide was established. The rising sentiment of terminal buying, coupled with the demand for double festival goods preparation, has a strong willingness to take goods, which is in sharp contrast to the bleak situation in the early stage.

Compared with the beginning of the month, hPEG increased by 17.98%; TPEG increased by 17.39%; Monoethanolamine rose by 50%; Diethanolamine increased by 19.10%; Triethanolamine increased by 15.05%; AEO-9 increased by 6.67%.

This month’s rise is the main theme. At present, ethylene oxide has turned losses into profits, and the profit space has increased. Based on the latest ethylene CIF Northeast Asia external price of 1135 US dollars / ton and the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, the profit of ethylene oxide is around 100 yuan / ton. As for the rising ceiling, excluding the speculation in the market, we may pay more attention to when to relax the policy and changes in the supply side.

Domestic acetic acid starts at a low level and the market supply is tight. The acetic acid operating rate has not improved after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the market supply continues to be tight. In addition, domestic traders intend to stir up, which promotes the continuous upward trend of acetic acid market.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the average price of acetic acid was 8983.33 yuan / ton on September 26. Compared with the price of 7250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it increased by more than 1700 yuan / ton during the week, an increase of 23.91% and 48.24% month on month. As of September 26, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region September 20th September 26th Price rise and fall

South China 7200-7300 yuan / ton 8700-9000 yuan / ton 1500/1700

North China 7200-7400 yuan / ton 9000-9100 yuan / ton 1800/1700

Shandong region 7100-7350 yuan / ton 8900-9300 yuan / ton 1800/1950

Jiangsu region 7600-7950 yuan / ton 8900-9100 yuan / ton 1300/1150

Zhejiang region 7650-8000 yuan / ton 9000-9100 yuan / ton 1350/1100

After the Mid Autumn Festival, there was no improvement in the start-up of domestic acetic acid plants. The acetic acid plants of manufacturers in North China and Northwest China were shut down for maintenance, the production of limited films in Shandong and Jiangsu was reduced, and the acetic acid plants of many factories in the field were shut down for maintenance or limited production. The enterprise inventory was tight, the supply of goods in the market continued to be tight, and the traders’ attitude was very strong, which promoted the market atmosphere. South China was mainly active in following up, The quotation of domestic acetic acid enterprises is high and upward.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate continued to rise during the week. As of September 26, the price of ethyl acetate in East China rose to 10850.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 11.00% during the week. Yankuang and Jiangyin Baichuan at the supply end are still under maintenance, the supply of main factories is reduced, the market supply is reduced, and the impact of raw material acetic acid market further drives up the price of ethyl acetate, The manufacturer’s quotation has increased one after another, and the centralized shutdown of large factories still leads to a shortage of supply. It is expected that there is still upward space in the market in the near future.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, in terms of supply in the domestic market, the supply of acetic acid market is tight, the price continues to be high, the downstream purchase is rational, and it is difficult to make up for the supply gap in the field in a short time. It is expected that the future market will be high, and the specific attention will be paid to the market transaction.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong continued to rise sharply this week. The quotation increased from 2516.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 9.27%, an increase of 60.82% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index was 127.91 on September 24.

The cost support was strengthened, the downstream demand was enhanced, the printing news was good, and the urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in China rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing offered 2850 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 270 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from 6256.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.11%, a year-on-year increase of 159.69% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal increased, and the quotation increased from 1407.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1525.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 8.35%, a year-on-year increase of 155.98% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 4725.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4950.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.76%, a year-on-year increase of 59.68% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 17000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 17300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.76%.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. From the perspective of supply: urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the early shutdown and maintenance has not been recovered (Tianrun, Boyuan, etc.), energy consumption control shutdown (Ningyang, Linggu), fault shutdown (xinlianxin, Dongguang, Jinkai), defect elimination of new units (Haoyuan), safety control (Jinxin), and the daily output of urea is less than 140000 tons. Internationally: India RCF announced a new round of urea import bidding, which was opened on October 1, valid until October 12, and the latest shipping date was November 11. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the printing news is good, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In late September, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic polyester filament market continued to rebound slightly this week (September 20-26). As of September 26, for mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7250-7600 yuan / ton, that of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 8900-9200 yuan / ton, and that of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 7850-8000 yuan / ton.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament market this week, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-9-20 2021-9-26 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand three hundred and eleven seven thousand five hundred and twenty-seven 2.96% 46%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) seven thousand seven hundred and twenty-one seven thousand nine hundred and thirty 2.70% 42.50%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) eight thousand seven hundred and ninety-seven eight thousand nine hundred and seventy-four 2.02% 36.47%

Raw crude oil continued to rise at a high level, strengthening cost support. As of September 24, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported as US $73.98/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported as US $78.09/barrel. The maintenance of PTA unit increased, and the start-up of the industry decreased to less than 70%. Meanwhile, the supplier Hengli Petrochemical’s supply decreased by 30% in October, and there is no pressure on the supply side. This week, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward, and the average price in the spot market was 5160 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.40% and a year-on-year increase of 51.73%.

The quality of the “golden nine silver ten” in the textile terminal industry is insufficient. Affected by the power limitation of weaving enterprises and the “double reduction and double control” of printing and dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the operating load of looms has rapidly decreased to less than 55%. In terms of export, the continuous rise of sea freight, the lengthening of transportation turnover time and the increase of logistics costs continue to put pressure on overseas orders of textile and clothing.

Business analysts believe that the polyester market has maintained an upward momentum driven by the positive cost side. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will remain volatile and upward before the National Day holiday. However, the current power restriction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has a great impact on the downstream weaving and printing and dyeing industries, and the demand side shrinks sharply, which will highlight the contradiction between polyester filament supply, so the price increase will not be too large.