Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on April 22, the average early price of silver market was 5077 yuan / kg, down 1.49%, up 1.43% from the average early price of 5005.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 6.44%.

On April 22, the spot market price of gold was 401.62 yuan / g, up 0.90% daily, up 2.60% from the early average price of 394.96 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 8.83%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long-term cycle, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. The daily rise and fall of gold and silver deviated on April 22.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

1. Domestic news

The Central Bank of China launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on the 24th. Because there was no reverse repurchase maturity today, it realized a net investment of 10 billion yuan on the same day. China’s seven-day repurchase interest rate rose 36 basis points to 1.9034%.

Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said at the 2022 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia on the 22nd that the people’s Bank of China handed over more than 1 trillion yuan of balance profits to the central government according to law, which is mainly used to offset tax rebates and transfer payments to local governments. The handover arrangement will move forward according to the progress of tax rebates and fiscal expenditure. The balance profit mainly comes from the profit accumulation of the people’s Bank of China in the past few years, which is equivalent to increasing the fiscal expenditure by 1% of the total GDP, reflecting the coordination and linkage of monetary policy and fiscal policy, and making joint efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market..

2. International news

The Central Bank of Paraguay raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 6.75%.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In the short term, the risk aversion of precious metals has gradually subsided, and the upward space of precious metal prices has been suppressed.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 13666 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam was stable on April 21, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the transaction of raw material pure benzene improved. The price of domestic pure benzene is 8400-8550 yuan / ton, and the cost support is acceptable. The supply of caprolactam decreased due to the overhaul or planned overhaul of some caprolactam enterprises. Follow up the procurement on demand in the downstream, focusing on caution in the field. Today, the listing price of Sinopec caprolactam is 14400 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the price of caprolactam will run smoothly in the short term.

Trade name: PC

Latest price (April 20): 22366.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: Recently, the domestic PC market has continued a weak trend. In the upstream, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has become increasingly tense, resulting in the closure of oil fields and the decline of supply. The news has pushed up the international crude oil price, and bisphenol A has gradually followed up. At present, the support of PC cost side is OK. However, in terms of supply, some enterprises started and resumed work in the early stage, and the supply side gradually increased. In terms of demand, at present, due to the impact of health events on East China, logistics and transportation are limited, and the demand follow-up shrinks. Most operators are bearish in the future.

Future forecast: it is expected that the PC market may be weak in the short term.

Latest price (April 19): 8980 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 19, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8980 yuan / ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day and 0.76% year-on-year. The disk is weak, the futures price rises and falls back, the quotation of PVC spot market fluctuates little, the high price transaction in the market is general, and the logistics in many places is not smooth, the raw material price is reduced, and the industry’s cautious wait-and-see attitude is not reduced. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4050-4150 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8800-9250 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to be generally stable and adjusted in a narrow range.

Trade name: lithium hydroxide

Latest price (April 18): 473333.34 yuan / ton

On April 18, the market price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide fell, down 1.11% compared with the previous trading day and up 2.90% compared with March 18. At present, the price of upstream lithium carbonate has been lowered, dragging the market mentality. The enthusiasm for procurement in foreign markets is active, the enthusiasm for domestic downstream procurement is weakened, and the focus of market negotiation is weakened.

It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene fell by a wide margin this week. On April 8, the price was 7420 yuan / ton; On Friday (April 15), the price was 7140 yuan / ton, down 3.77% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.37%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose broadly this week, and the cost side boosted the mixed xylene market. However, the downstream demand for mixed xylene was weak, with sporadic transactions during the week. Under the influence of public health events, the transportation was blocked, the market mentality was bad, and the price followed the decline of the main refinery.

In the external market, driven by the rise of crude oil, mixed xylene in Asia fell first and then rose in the external market this week. On Thursday (April 14), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $1102.5/ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $41 / ton, or 3.86%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $1110 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $39 / ton, or 3.64%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil showed a trend of falling first and then rising this week, and the overall price rose. At the beginning of the week, the news that the International Energy Agency planned to release crude oil reserves on a large scale continued to affect the market, with European and American crude oil futures falling more than 4% in a single day. However, according to relevant news, Russian oil production decreased significantly, superimposed on the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil rebounded rapidly, rising for two consecutive days, with an increase of more than 10%. As of April 14, Brent rose $8.92 / barrel, or 8.68%; WTI rose $8.69/barrel, or 8.84%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (April 8), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.31% compared with the same period last year. PX prices rose slightly this week. As of the 14th, the closing prices in Asia were US $1182-1184 / T FOB Korea and US $1200-1202 / T CFR China.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China stabilized this week. On Friday (April 15), the price of ox in East China was 8600 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week and up 53.57% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell continuously this week. The price was 8628 yuan / ton on April 8 and 8341.2 yuan / ton on April 15, down 3.33% from last week and up 13.14% from the same period last year. Recently, the epidemic situation in some areas rebounded, people’s travel was limited, the demand for gasoline was relatively reduced, and the on-site price fell.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the European Union may introduce a new round of sanctions against Russia, driving the rise of oil prices. However, the release of reserve plans by the United States and the International Energy Agency may curb the rise in oil prices. The short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The cost side support remains unchanged, but under the influence of domestic public health events, logistics and transportation are blocked, downstream demand continues to be weak, the mentality of operators is mainly shipping, and there is a possibility of decline. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil, gasoline and diesel, the dynamics of mixed xylene ports and devices, and the impact of downstream market and device dynamics on the price of mixed xylene.

Trade name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3640 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate was stable on April 14, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. At present, there are few supplies in the market, there are sufficient orders to be issued by enterprises, and diammonium continues to operate at a high level. Due to the rising cost side, most diammonium enterprises suspend quotation and mainly guarantee supply and delivery. Today, the arrival price of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang is about 4050 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

Future forecast: the high level of diammonium phosphate will run smoothly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of EVA in the domestic market was 22566.67 yuan / ton on April 12 and 22566.67 yuan / ton on April 13. The single day price remained stable, up 7.80% compared with April 1.

On the 13th, the domestic EVA market price continued to remain stable and the trend was relatively strong. There is no obvious fluctuation in the ex factory price of petrochemical, the rise of international crude oil price has brought some support to the cost side, the spot supply is still tight, the mentality of merchants is good, and the price is mainly firm. It is expected that the EVA market price will continue to be sorted out in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (April 12): 11233.33 yuan / ton

The melamine market fell on April 12, down 4.53% compared with the previous trading day and 6.39% compared with the price on March 12. At present, the upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is limited, and the operating rate of melamine market is high, but the downstream demand is poor, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be weak and wait-and-see.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (April 11): 13666.67 yuan / ton

The acrylic acid Market in East China fell on April 11, down 2.38% compared with the previous trading day and 15.29% compared with the price on March 11. At present, the market price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is limited, and some units are overhauled, but the downstream demand is not followed up, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term.