According to the monitoring data, the current mainstream market of China’s polyaluminum chloride Market decreased slightly on a single day (December 22-23): the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 22nd was 2491.25 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 23rd was about 2490 yuan / ton, with a single day decrease of only 0.05%. Recently, enterprises in China’s main production areas have started normally, with sufficient supply and general market demand, and the transaction is not very prosperous.

Raw material: hydrochloric acid. According to the monitoring of business society, the market price of hydrochloric acid in China fluctuated slightly in a single day (December 22-23). The mainstream quotation was 330 yuan / ton on the 22nd and 326 yuan / ton on the 23rd, down 1.21%. The upstream liquid chlorine market was general, the cost support was weakened, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises increased, the supply and demand was reduced, the downstream demand was weakened, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general.

As for the future market, raw hydrochloric acid continued to decline slightly, the price was weak and the market support was unstable; At present, the enterprises in the main production areas in China are operating normally and the supply of goods is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, and the transaction change has not been significantly improved. In the future, the market trend of polyaluminium chloride is stable, medium and slightly weak; If the price of raw materials continues to decline frequently and the demand does not increase significantly, it is more likely that the future market will continue to decline.

441# silicon price trend

Market analysis

On the 22nd, 44# metal silicon prices continued to operate in a weak and stable trend, with an average price of 22090 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The market operation rate is high and there is inventory backlog. According to traders, the shipment situation is not ideal. There are many recent inquiries, but the transaction is light, mainly low-cost goods.

Today, the ex factory quotation of domestic silicone DMC is around 24000-25000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 24300 yuan / ton. The increase of the ex factory price of silicone DMC in Shandong has led to a slight recovery of the market atmosphere, coupled with the negative expectation in the north, and the silicone price is up. Aluminum alloy manufacturers purchase actively, the transaction is OK, and the price is the same as yesterday. ADC12 Wuxi market quotation is 20000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast

At present, the shutdown rate of silicon market is lower than expected, and the manufacturer’s production intention is still strong, but the release of market demand is poor, and the future price is expected to be weak.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (December 21): 2026.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, refineries in various regions in China today have different performances, and the prices of solid and liquid sulfur rise and fall with each other. The price of solid sulfur in East China has increased by 30-40 yuan / ton and the price of liquid sulfur has decreased by 60-80 yuan / ton, while the performance of liquid sulfur in Shandong and North China is stable. The price of solid sulfur in Shandong has increased by 30 yuan / ton and that in North China has increased by 40 yuan / ton. Domestic refineries have sufficient inventory, the downstream demand is general, the market purchase is not active, the imported liquid sulfur increases, the focus of domestic liquid sulfur price moves downward, the progress of winter fertilizer storage market has improved, the market inquiry has increased, and the price of sulfur fixation has increased. The industry holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market as a whole.

Future forecast: the future sulfur market is in a stalemate, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: formic acid

Latest price (December 20): 4300 yuan / ton

On December 20, the market price of formic acid increased by 1.57% compared with last Friday, decreased by 42.67% compared with December 20, and increased by 86.96% compared with the same period last year. At present, the raw material methanol is running steadily, the price of caustic soda is rising, the price of sulfuric acid is rising slightly, the price of liquid ammonia is falling slightly, the cost support is OK, the enterprise is dissatisfied with the operating load, the market supply is in short supply, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market trading is orderly.

It is expected that in the short term, the formic acid market may be stable, medium and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline prices continued to rise this week. On December 10, the price in Shandong was 9300-9600 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9600-9800 yuan / ton; On December 17, the price in Shandong was 9500-9980 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9800-10000 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.05% over last week and 24.57% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, pure benzene: there will be new units put into operation in the downstream of speculation in Shandong. The market negotiation atmosphere is positive. The price has continuously risen to the high level of 6850-6900 yuan / ton. Driven by the rise in East China, pure benzene has continued to rise in the first half of the week. However, with the continuous rise in the price of pure benzene, the resistance in the downstream has increased, the follow-up mood has dropped, and the downstream devices have not been put into operation as scheduled, so the mentality of the industry has changed to caution. It is heard that pure benzene in East China port will continue to accumulate in the next week, and the inventory pressure will further depress the market mentality. Pure benzene fell continuously in the second half of the week. On Friday (December 17), the price of pure benzene was 6600-6900 yuan / ton (the average price was 6700 yuan / ton), an increase of 280 yuan / ton, or 4.36%, and 49.35% over the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid fell this week. On Friday (December 17), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 230 yuan / ton, down 2.82% from last week and up 11.29% from the same period last year. Nitric acid orders decreased and enterprises lowered their quotation.

In the early stage, the inventory of raw materials consumed by the downstream of aniline was mainly, and the follow-up of aniline was cautious. After the decline of aniline, there was strong enthusiasm for bargain hunting. In addition, the rise of aniline raw material side continued this week, and the inventory of enterprises remained at a low level. During the week, Jinmao aniline plant was shut down for a short time, which had little impact on the aniline Market.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost and pure benzene, the downstream unit is expected to be put into operation next week, the demand support in Shandong still exists, and the price may rebound; East China port inventory continued to accumulate, and inventory pressure dragged down the market. On the whole, the trend of pure benzene is uncertain, and it is expected that Shandong is better than East China.

Pure benzene is weak, nitric acid is weak, aniline cost support is weak, and the price trend is mainly affected by the demand side. Aniline consolidation is expected next week. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 16 is 5000 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 16, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 633600 tons, an increase of 24500 tons, an increase of 4.02%, and 12600 tons, an increase of 2.03%, compared with last Thursday.

On December 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4937.5 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton from the previous trading day and 39.83 yuan / ton from last week.

The Federal Reserve sent a signal to fight inflation. In addition, oil demand hit a record high, crude oil inventories fell more than expected, oil prices were boosted to a certain extent, and pit coal prices stabilized. The storage of ethylene glycol accumulates slightly, the arrival volume increases, the external market is deadlocked, the profit space of polyester at the demand end and downstream is squeezed, the operating load decreases slightly, and the delivery of ethylene glycol at the port is general. Overall, MEG fundamentals have not changed much.

Forecast: interval shock.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on December 15, the average early price of silver market was 4647 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.77% compared with the average early price of spot market on Tuesday (December 14), and 5550 yuan / kg compared with the spot price at the beginning of the year (01.01), a decrease of 16.92%.

On December 15, the spot market price of gold was 366.68 yuan / g, down 0.30% from the spot market price of 367.77 yuan / G on Tuesday (12.14), down 0.07% from the early average price of 366.42 yuan / g in the spot market price in early December (12.1); compared with the spot market price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), down 6.63%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

 
The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. After the recent silver price reduction, it was adjusted at a low level.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Today’s macro policy factors

The Central Bank of China conducted a one-year MLF operation of 500 billion yuan, and the interest rate remained unchanged at 2.95%. Today, 950 billion yuan of MLF is due; The central bank’s RRR reduction took effect today.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (December 14): 6150 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic acetic acid market operates on a wait-and-see basis. There is no pressure on the inventory of acetic acid enterprises, the supply of goods in the market is stable, the downstream purchase is mainly just needed, and the on-site trading is OK. At present, the market supply and demand maintain a balance, and the operator’s mentality is mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term acetic acid market, and pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: propylene oxide

Latest price (December 13): 14300 yuan / ton

On December 13, the market price of propylene oxide decreased by 2.05% compared with last Friday, 2.05% compared with the price at the beginning of the month and 12.27% compared with the price on November 13. Recently, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is general, the factory inventory increases slowly, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, the bearish mood is strong, the terminal is mainly waiting and waiting, and the focus of market negotiation is downward.

It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA ushered in a rebound trend this week (December 6-10) after falling for 8 consecutive weeks. As of December 10, the average market price in East China was 4656 yuan / ton, up 3.63% from the beginning of the week and 32.98% year-on-year.

During the week, the PTA production capacity of factory maintenance and production reduction increased, and the spot was less. Among them, the restart of Honggang 2#2.4 million ton unit was delayed, the load of 3.3 million ton unit of Yisheng new material was reduced, and the 2.2 million ton unit of Hengli Petrochemical was overhauled on December 10. The industrial operating rate fell below 72%. PTA’s slight destocking was conducive to the price rebound.

The crude oil market has experienced a sharp decline in the early stage, and the oil price has reached a relatively low level. At present, there is a willingness to rebound and repair. On the supply and demand side, the results of the OPEC + meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies were released last week. The policy was relatively conservative and increased production by 400000 barrels / day as scheduled. The statement of OPEC + in the later stage or flexibly controlling production according to the development trend of the epidemic supported the oil price. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are still deadlocked, so it is less likely that Iran’s crude oil will return to the market in the near future, which provides some support for the oil market, and the crude oil has ushered in a strong rebound. However, with the impact of the mutant strain Omicron on the economy fermenting again, people’s worries about economic recovery were rekindled, and oil prices fell under pressure. As of December 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $70.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $74.42/barrel.

In terms of demand, the operating load of the downstream polyester plant is not high and remains around 80%. This year is a warm winter. The domestic autumn and winter fabric market is particularly light. The inventory of weaving factories continues to rise, and the inventory is large, near 2 months. In December, foreign trade orders have not improved significantly, and the terminal weaving market has weakened. In addition, the orders of printing and dyeing factories have decreased significantly recently, and the follow-up or early holidays have resulted in low overall production enthusiasm of weaving factories. At present, the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is about 65%.

Business analysts believe that at present, PTA cost support still exists, and the supply side reduction caused by centralized maintenance of the device has boosted the PTA market. However, the sluggish demand will restrain the increase of PTA. At present, the terminal orders are still relatively light. At the same time, it is worried that there are uncertain factors in the foreign trade market after the year. It is expected that before the Spring Festival this year, the goods preparation of weaving factories may be relatively cautious, and the holiday time of weaving factories may be earlier than in previous years. On the whole, PTA will still maintain a shock upward trend in the short term. In the near future, we still need to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on logistics.