On January 20, the rare earth index was 860 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 14.00% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 217.34% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising, and the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is rising. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 920000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 1127500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 915000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 15000 yuan / ton to 1035000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1170000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal neodymium is 20000 yuan / ton to 1260000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide is 3 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.98 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.8 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is temporarily stable, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market rises, the price of terbium series rises, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise in the future.

Trade name: natural rubber (domestic standard I)

Latest price (1-18): 13930 yuan / ton

Data monitoring shows that on January 19, Shanghai glue continued to fluctuate, with a large upward range in the session, and the closing range narrowed to less than 50 yuan / ton. The spot glue was adjusted with the session. According to the latest data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers (ACEA), the registration of passenger cars in the EU decreased by 22.8% to 795295 in December 2021, the sixth consecutive month. Most EU countries have experienced double-digit declines. Overall, in 2021, EU passenger car sales decreased by 2.4% year-on-year to 9.7 million, which is the result of the negative impact of chip shortage on the annual automobile production, especially in the second half of 2021.

Future forecast: at present, it is in a period of weak supply and demand, and the spot price is relatively strong; Affected by the holidays and epidemic situation, especially the transportation vehicles sent to the region in many places and the attention paid by drivers to epidemic situation protection, some enterprises have taken holidays in advance, and the procurement demand is blocked. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival. Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 114% year-on-year in December, the latest report said that the sales volume of passenger vehicles in EU decreased by 2.4% year-on-year to 9.7 million vehicles in 2021, which was the result of the negative impact of chip shortage on the annual automobile production.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: 1500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate was stable on January 18, compared with the previous trading day. The price of ammonium sulfate is stable today, and the new orders in the venue are limited. Coking grade ammonium sulfate operates in low-level vibration, and high-grade ammonium sulfate is reduced in vibration. Traders are mainly on the sidelines. Due to the epidemic situation, the logistics in some areas was blocked, the trend of urea was weak, and the negative factors increased.

Future forecast: in the short term, the price range of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly this week, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol increased from 16020.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16520.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3.12%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol increased this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which increased by 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol over the weekend was 14560 yuan / ton. Compared with last weekend, the quotation was temporarily stable. The distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market increased from 14400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 2433.33 yuan / ton, or 16.90%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose sharply, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in late January may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

Since January, domestic PTA prices have maintained an upward trend, and the cost push up market has continued. According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of January 15, the average price of domestic PTA market was 5213 yuan / ton, up 5.04% from the beginning of the month and 33.68% year-on-year.

In January, the maintenance of domestic PTA units increased. Up to now, the industry has started around 77%, down about 3 percentage points from the beginning of the month. However, the units of Yisheng Dalian and hailun Petrochemical are facing restart at the weekend, and the supply is expected to recover next week. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, Hengyi Petrochemical said on the interactive platform on January 14 that the 3 million ton PTA project of Yisheng new material 2# line has been basically completed and has not been put into operation yet.

In the crude oil market, the international oil price hit a new high in nearly two months. As of January 13, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.12/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.47/barrel. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight. Investors believe that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks and support the oil price rebound.

The favorable cost boosted the downstream polyester market, followed by a slight upward trend, and the polyester products increased by 1-5%. However, at present, the Chinese New Year atmosphere of terminal textile enterprises is getting stronger and stronger. Factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continue to reduce their burdens. Many factories plan to stop work and have holidays. The order situation is poor. New orders for domestic trade are rarely heard, and new orders for foreign trade are also significantly reduced. Watch and place orders carefully.

According to the analysis of business agency, the recent PTA trend is dominated by cost, and the upward shift of the focus of international oil price will continue to drive PTA out of a wave of rising market. However, in terms of PTA’s own fundamentals, the device is facing restart, supply pressurization, and the load of terminal loom decreases significantly, and the expectation of weakening supply and demand still exists. PTA is expected to gradually weaken and adjust.

1、 Price trend

 
Latest price (January 13): 8280 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, the average domestic spot price of pvcc5 was 8280 yuan / ton on January 13, up 0.24% compared with the previous day, and the enterprise quotation increased slightly, about 50-100 yuan / ton. The futures rebound has driven the spot market. At present, the price of pvc5 calcium carbide method remains in the range of 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the raw material price has temporarily stabilized to around 4570 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to adjust in a narrow range.

The price of ethylene oxide is stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 7400 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $975 / T and that in Southeast Asia was US $965 / T, which was flat compared with the previous trading day.

The upstream ethylene price fell steadily. I heard that the domestic ethylene price fell today and the cost side support weakened. The supply and demand of ethylene oxide in the region is uneven, some units are shut down and production is reduced, and the supply of goods in East China is tight. The downstream monomer demand is light, the stock market has not yet come, the price has stabilized, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

Long short game, temporary stability

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (January 11): 2096.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today increased by 1.78% compared with yesterday. The domestic sulfur market was stable and upward. Refineries in various regions adjusted their quotation according to their shipment and inventory, which increased by different ranges compared with the previous working day. Solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong increased by 20-30 yuan / ton at the same time; In East China, the fixed sulfur is increased by 60-80 yuan / ton, and the liquid sulfur is increased by 20 yuan / ton; Sulfur fixation in North China was increased by 40-50 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur was temporarily stable. There is no inventory pressure in domestic refineries, downstream sulfuric acid is purchased on demand, the market demand for liquid sulfur is weak, and the price is slightly adjusted; The demand for sulfur in downstream phosphate fertilizer has increased, the shipment of enterprises is smooth, the market progress of winter storage fertilizer is good, and the price of sulfur fixation has increased.

Future forecast: the future sulfur market may continue the upward trend, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on January 10 was 5108.33 yuan / ton.

In terms of devices, a 150000 ton C device in Xinjiang Tianying was shut down for maintenance in early January and is expected to be around 2 months. A new 800000 ton ethylene glycol unit in Zhenhai, Ningbo is expected to be put into operation near January 12, and its front cracking has been put into trial operation on January 5. A 750000 ton Weg unit 2# line of Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped near January 3, and the restart time is uncertain. Yangzi’s 300000 ton ethylene glycol production capacity recently shut down due to equipment reasons, and the shutdown time is expected to be around the 10th.

The restriction of international turbulence and epidemic situation on the demand side has led to repeated horizontal jumps in crude oil prices, fluctuations in the mentality of naphtha market, cautious pursuit of higher prices, and continuous rise in thermal coal. Downstream polyester demand is soft, PTA market is declining, and the demand side is weak.

Forecast: MEG storage callback pressure.

Trend of metallic magnesium in recent March

Market analysis this week

In the first week of the new year, the magnesium market was running steadily. After the festival, there are many inquiries from downstream customers. The mainstream ex factory quotation including tax in the market is about 51000 yuan / ton. With the promotion of high prices, the market procurement also tends to be mild, and the procurement rhythm slows down gradually. In terms of quotation, the price of magnesium has increased by 3500 yuan / ton since January. By the 7th, the average price of magnesium ingot remained at 52500 yuan / ton, with an obvious upward trend. According to the traders, they are not willing to offer a high price and ship at a low price. They are unwilling to ship if it is lower than 51000 yuan / ton.

As of January 7, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 51400-51500 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 51400-51500 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 51500-51600 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 51600-51700 yuan / ton.

The environmental protection policy has not been implemented yet

At present, both upstream and downstream magnesium ingots are paying attention to the rectification plan, waiting for the introduction of relevant policies and making further plans. Relatively speaking, it is difficult for magnesium ingots to fall back, different environmental protection news flows out from the market, the hype atmosphere is very high, and magnesium ingot merchants have a strong bullish mentality.

Need to be cautious

The downstream demand is flat, mainly for customers with just needs. At present, the magnesium ingot Market is still in a high shock stage. Although many merchants hold a bullish attitude, the demand side indicates that the procurement risk is high, and is very cautious about high price procurement, with more transactions than just needs.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is flat, mainly for customers with just needs. At present, the magnesium ingot Market is still in a high shock stage. Although many merchants hold a bullish attitude, the demand side indicates that the procurement risk is high, and is very cautious about high price procurement, with more transactions than just needs.