Since January, domestic PTA prices have maintained an upward trend, and the cost push up market has continued. According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of January 15, the average price of domestic PTA market was 5213 yuan / ton, up 5.04% from the beginning of the month and 33.68% year-on-year.
In January, the maintenance of domestic PTA units increased. Up to now, the industry has started around 77%, down about 3 percentage points from the beginning of the month. However, the units of Yisheng Dalian and hailun Petrochemical are facing restart at the weekend, and the supply is expected to recover next week. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, Hengyi Petrochemical said on the interactive platform on January 14 that the 3 million ton PTA project of Yisheng new material 2# line has been basically completed and has not been put into operation yet.
In the crude oil market, the international oil price hit a new high in nearly two months. As of January 13, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.12/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.47/barrel. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight. Investors believe that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks and support the oil price rebound.
The favorable cost boosted the downstream polyester market, followed by a slight upward trend, and the polyester products increased by 1-5%. However, at present, the Chinese New Year atmosphere of terminal textile enterprises is getting stronger and stronger. Factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continue to reduce their burdens. Many factories plan to stop work and have holidays. The order situation is poor. New orders for domestic trade are rarely heard, and new orders for foreign trade are also significantly reduced. Watch and place orders carefully.
According to the analysis of business agency, the recent PTA trend is dominated by cost, and the upward shift of the focus of international oil price will continue to drive PTA out of a wave of rising market. However, in terms of PTA’s own fundamentals, the device is facing restart, supply pressurization, and the load of terminal loom decreases significantly, and the expectation of weakening supply and demand still exists. PTA is expected to gradually weaken and adjust.
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