Recently, zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 11th, the zinc price was 20692 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.39% compared to the zinc price of 20774 yuan/ton on December 1st. The domestic situation of strong supply and weak demand continues, with zinc prices experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in December.

Recent increase in zinc concentrate port inventory

From the domestic zinc concentrate port inventory statistics table, it can be seen that as of December 8th, the zinc concentrate port inventory was 359000 tons, an increase of 36000 tons compared to December 1st. In December, the inventory of zinc concentrate at ports increased, and the supply of raw materials by zinc smelters was sufficient. However, the processing cost of zinc concentrate decreased, the operating rate of zinc smelters decreased, and the production of zinc ingots decreased.

Inventory statistics of zinc ingots in various regions of China

From the domestic zinc ingot inventory statistics table, it can be seen that on December 11th, the zinc ingot inventory was 49700 tons, a decrease of 13700 tons from the zinc ingot inventory of 63400 tons on December 1st; The inventory of zinc ingots has significantly decreased. The supply of zinc ingots has decreased.

Environmental protection reappears, downstream zinc production declines

Environmental protection production restrictions have reappeared in the northern region, with a slight decline in galvanizing production, but to a lesser extent than previous production restrictions; There is no significant increase in orders for zinc oxide, and overall production has shrunk; The number of new orders for die-casting zinc alloy has declined, and downstream demand for zinc ingots has declined.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the processing fees for zinc concentrate have decreased recently, resulting in a decrease in zinc ingot production; Environmental protection production restrictions have reappeared, and demand for zinc ingots has declined. In recent times, the supply and demand of zinc ingots have been weak, and there is still downward pressure on the rise of zinc prices due to insufficient support. In the future, the weak supply and demand situation in the zinc market remains, and zinc prices are expected to consolidate at a low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus has decreased. Last Friday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25729.33 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price is 25160 yuan/ton. The price has decreased by 2.21% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been downward, and the overall market trading situation is light. The downstream market is relatively weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is low. Downstream enterprises are still cautious in their procurement, and they will purchase at a lower price. They will use a little to buy a little, and the market price of yellow phosphorus will gradually decrease. As of now, the mainstream quotation for Yunnan yellow phosphorus is around 25200 yuan/ton; The quotation for Guizhou yellow phosphorus is around 25000 yuan/ton, while the quotation for Sichuan yellow phosphorus is around 25000-25500 yuan/ton.

As of December 8th, the reference price for phosphate ore was 1034 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9% compared to December 1st (1054 yuan/ton). At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the downstream market is weak, resulting in a decrease in market prices. At present, the domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton. The phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market has limited fluctuations, and the market will continue to focus on stable operation. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand information.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, from December 1 to December 8, 2023, the coke market in Shanxi region will temporarily operate steadily. On December 8, the ex factory price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke will be 2328.33 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable. The overall performance of the coke market this week is relatively strong, and the third round of price increases has not yet been implemented. The raw material coking coal continues to operate at a relatively strong level. Recently, the cost of entering the furnace for coking enterprises is still high, and the overall profit is poor. Some enterprises have voluntarily limited production, and currently the on-site inventory is operating at a low level, resulting in a slightly tight supply of coke. As the weather cools down, the downstream terminal consumer market gradually enters the off-season in terms of demand. In the future, the mentality of coke enterprises remains strong, and downstream demand is still present. It is expected that the coke market will continue to operate strongly in the short term. The focus of the future is on the downstream winter storage plan and the inventory situation of coke in various links.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week; The market price of thermal phosphoric acid has been lowered this week. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore have been lowered, weakening cost support. At present, the operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and the demand in the phosphoric acid market is sluggish. Trading is limited, and transactions are mainly negotiated on a single basis. The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that the recent weakening of the phosphoric acid market has led to a strong bearish sentiment in the industry. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be weakly consolidated and operated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus has decreased this week, and the overall market trading situation is light, with the focus of the yellow phosphorus market downward. The upstream phosphate ore market is downward, and the coke market is temporarily stable, with average cost support. It is expected that the price trend of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the short term.

Liquid ammonia price: 3990 yuan/ton

Analysis: On December 7th, liquid ammonia in Shandong continued its upward trend yesterday. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 1.7%. The main production areas in the north are mainly affected by inflation, while environmental protection in Shandong has affected the start of construction. Some urea plants in Hebei have reduced production, coupled with temporary failures in some plants in Shanxi, the market has shown a tightening of supply. On Thursday, large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei generally raised prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer followed suit. In addition, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly improved. Both supply and demand are favorable for the domestic ammonia market. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: It is expected that in the near future, the equipment of northern liquid ammonia enterprises will gradually recover with the end of environmental protection, and the production of enterprises will increase in the later stage. The upward trend of liquid ammonia will be suppressed, and prices may have room to fall.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 6th, the DBP price was 9850 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.68% from the DBP price of 9500 yuan/ton on December 1st. The raw material n-butanol fluctuates and rises, the price of isooctanol continues to rise, DBP costs rise, DBP enterprises have a high operating rate, and sales performance is good. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is high, and DBP prices fluctuate and rise.

The price of n-butanol steadily increased in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 6th, the price of n-butanol was 8533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.87% from the price of n-butanol on December 1st, which was 7766.67 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown and maintenance of equipment in n-butanol enterprises have increased, and the supply of n-butanol has decreased. In addition, plasticizer enterprises are operating at a high level, and downstream markets are actively restocking. The price of n-butanol continues to rise, and the cost support for DBP increases.

The price of isooctanol continues to steadily rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol has been continuously rising since mid November. As of December 6th, the quotation for isooctanol is 12340 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.30% compared to the quotation of 11500 yuan/ton on December 1st; Compared to the quote of 11160 yuan/ton on November 11th, it has increased by 10.57%. In November, the operating rate of downstream plasticizer DBP manufacturers increased, and plasticizer DBP manufacturers actively purchased. The demand for iso octanol rigidity increased, and iso octanol products showed a fluctuating upward trend. In the past three months, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has gradually recovered, and the supply of isooctanol has increased. With the continuous rise of isooctanol prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream plasticizer enterprises has declined under price pressure, and the supply and demand of isooctanol have been weak. In the future, the support for the rise of isooctanol has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analyst believes that plasticizer DBP enterprises are operating at a high level, while exports continue to grow steadily, and the supply and demand of plasticizer DBP are both strong. In terms of raw materials, the prices of n-butanol and isooctanol have fluctuated and risen, and the rising cost of DBP raw materials has supported DBP’s strong consolidation. In the future, DBP supply and demand are both strong, with stable and strong raw materials such as n-butanol and isooctanol. The cost support for plasticizers is increasing, and it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (December 5th): 11740.00/ton

On December 5th, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province slightly increased, with a price increase of 160 yuan/ton compared to November 4th, an increase of 1.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 26.24%. Upstream propylene prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream plasticizer market has slightly increased, leading to an increase in downstream demand. Supply exceeds demand, leading large factories to increase their prices.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 11800 yuan/ton.

The price of acetic anhydride has significantly increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 4th, the price of acetic anhydride was 6075 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.28% compared to the price of 5662.50 yuan/ton on November 27th. The continuous failures of acetic acid enterprises have led to a decrease in acetic acid supply and a significant increase in acetic acid prices; The price of raw materials has increased, making it difficult for acetic anhydride enterprises to purchase raw materials. The operating load of acetic anhydride enterprises has decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride has increased significantly this week.

The price of acetic acid has significantly increased this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of December 4th, the price of acetic acid was 3650 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 14.6% compared to the price of 3175 yuan/ton on November 27th. Part of the acetic acid enterprises have started production and stopped production of equipment, leading to a reduction in production capacity. Coupled with low inventory levels among manufacturers, the supply of acetic acid has decreased, and downstream demand for acetic acid has stabilized. Acetic acid manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, resulting in a significant increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data Analyst believes that acetic acid companies operate at low loads, resulting in a decrease in acetic acid supply, an increase in acetic acid prices, and an increase in the cost of acetic anhydride; The supply of acetic acid has decreased, and acetic anhydride enterprises are purchasing raw materials at high prices. The operating load of acetic anhydride enterprises has decreased, and the production of acetic anhydride has decreased. Acetic anhydride enterprises have a strong willingness to rise. Cost support, coupled with a decline in the production of acetic anhydride enterprises, is expected to lead to an increase in the price of acetic anhydride in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China continued to rise in November, with a strong market trend. On November 30th, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 1030.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.37% compared to the average ex factory price of 943.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

This month, the sulfur market in East China has risen strongly, with active inquiries in the end market. Downstream factories and traders have good demand, and the market trading atmosphere is positive. Refinery shipments are smooth, and sulfur prices have risen slightly. At the same time, some manufacturers have low inventory and a strong intention to push up prices. With stable follow-up from downstream, sulfur prices have continued to rise, and downstream demand has weakened at the end of the month. Some refineries have adjusted their prices based on their own shipment situation, The price of sulfur has slightly fallen.

The downstream sulfuric acid market saw a significant increase in November, with a market price of 258.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 302.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 17.05% within the month. During the month, mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers operated at low loads, maintained low inventory levels, and the market supply performance was tight. Downstream demand was active, and sulfuric acid enterprises shipped smoothly. In addition, high raw material prices led to a strong increase in sulfuric acid prices.

In November, the market for ammonium phosphate showed a strong upward trend, with a stable winter storage market at the terminal. Downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, and enterprises placed more orders on behalf of others. The market supply was tight, and the positive news was concentrated. As a result, the price of ammonium phosphate in the market rose rapidly. In the latter half of the month, the upward trend of the ammonium phosphate market was temporarily suspended, and the market trend stabilized. As of November 30th, the average price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in the market was 3450.00 yuan/ton, which is 11.11% higher than the average price of 3150.00 yuan/ton on November 1st.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from Business Society believe that sulfur enterprises are operating normally, with low inventory as the main focus. Market supply is stable, and terminal market demand is weakening. Downstream demand is mostly followed up on demand, and demand side support is reduced. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will consolidate and operate in the later stage.

In November, the domestic dimethyl ether market in Henan fell weakly. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3700 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 3650 yuan/ton on November 30th. The monthly decline was 1.35%, a 21% decrease compared to the same period last year.

As of November 30th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3900 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3650 yuan/ton

In November, the overall performance of the domestic dimethyl ether market was weak, with a weak and stable operation. At the beginning of the month, raw material prices were weak, and the mentality of the industry was weak. Upstream supply tightened, but downstream demand further weakened, leading to a decrease in the price of dimethyl ether. Subsequently, the market entered a stalemate and consolidation stage, with weak supply and demand on the exchange and a lack of positive signals to guide the market. The quotation remained stable until the end of the month.

In November, the raw material methanol market fluctuated and rose. Due to the impact of supply and demand, prices fluctuated all the way. At the end of the month, the market was boosted by a decrease in imported resources, resulting in a wave of upward trend.

Overall, the contradiction between supply and demand in the dimethyl ether market has intensified, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and tight profits. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in November. On November 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5844 yuan/ton. On November 29th, the average price was 5698 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 2.5% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in November. In the first half of this month, the preference for futures market trends drove up the confidence in the spot market. PVC spot prices rose, but in the first half of the month, upstream calcium carbide market prices significantly declined, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange became weak, leading to a decline in market prices. In the middle of the month, be cautious and wait, as the PVC spot market lacks confidence and prices fluctuate and decrease. In the latter half of the month, the futures market was mainly in a downward trend, with the spot market being heavily suppressed and prices falling. Downstream demand for purchases was the main focus, with on-demand purchases available. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5430-5870 yuan/ton.

On November 28th, international crude oil futures prices rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, with an increase of $1.55 or 2.1%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 81.47 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.60 US dollars or 2.0%. The market expects that OPEC+, an oil producing country, may extend and deepen production cuts, leading to a rebound in oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in November. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.67% at the end of the month. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early December, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the spot market price of PVC has fallen this month, and downstream demand is affected by the performance of the real estate data market, resulting in relatively weak market demand. In addition, the decline in carbide prices and poor performance of the futures market have limited support for the PVC spot market overall. It is expected that the PVC market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November

According to data from Business Society, on November 28th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4000 and 4250 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot manufacturers in Central China have a price range of 4000 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4250 yuan/ton to the outside world.

On November 27th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in the Asian market in China was 477 US dollars per ton; The landed price in Southeast Asia is $485 per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Device dynamics

The 1 million ton unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical stopped operation last weekend, and the restart time is yet to be determined; The 150000 ton plant of Xinjiang Tianying was shut down on November 23, and the restart is yet to be determined; The 260000 ton plant of Inner Mongolia Jianyuan has gradually restarted recently, and it is expected to produce products in early December; The 300000 ton plant of Xinjiang Tianye was shut down on November 16th, and the restart is yet to be determined; The 300000 ton unit of Shanxi Meijin will be shut down on November 15th, expected to take about 20 days; A 600000 ton unit in Xinjiang is expected to be put into trial operation and the product is expected to be available by the end of the month.

Weakened cost support

On November 27th, the central parity rate (CFR) for Northeast Asia Ethylene Gold was $861 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton from the central parity rate of $881 per ton at the beginning of the month (November 1st).

Downstream demand

The operating load of downstream polyester is relatively stable. On November 27th, the polyester operating rate was 88.72%, and the polyester factory load remained around 88%. On the terminal side, the operating load of the weaving machine is 85%, and the operating load of the elastic weaving machine is 91%. Both have increased compared to the previous period, mainly due to weather factors, which have led to an increase in demand for cold and warm orders.

High port inventory

As of November 27, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.1476 million tons, which is 1.0548 million tons higher than the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on October 23, an increase of 92800 tons. The port inventory is still relatively high.

Future market forecast

The reality of ethylene glycol supply and demand is loose, with high inventory, suppressing price increases. Currently, prices are low and cost support is strong. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a volatile sideways trend in the short term will increase, and the weak and volatile operation will continue at the end of the month.