The new round of US tax collection list covers almost rare earth and related products.

Since 2018, the Sino-US trade war has continued to heat up. Following the June 15th, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced a list of 1,102 sanctions worth $50 billion, and on July 6, began to impose a 25% import tariff on the first batch of Chinese products worth $34 billion. Later, on July 10, local time, the US Trade Representative Office announced a new round of taxation list, which plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth 200 billion US dollars. The sanctions are expected to officially land on August 30.

In the newly published catalogue of the 3290-F8 document tax list, almost all rare earth oxides, compounds, metals and rare earth permanent magnets, as well as rare earth application end products are covered.

Over the years, the United States has developed a high degree of dependence on Chinese rare earths.

American rare earth consumption is highly dependent on China. According to USGS statistics, in 2017, 78% of the total imports of rare earth products from the United States came from China, and the remaining 22% came from Estonia (6%), Japan (4%), France (4%) and others (8%). ), but the primary raw materials for rare earth products imported from Japan, France and other places are also from China.

According to China Customs data, in 2017, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States amounted to 14,300 tons, accounting for 27.7% of China’s total exports of rare earth smelting and separating products. Among them, 238.5 tons of rare earth metals are exported to the United States, accounting for 4.3% of China’s total exports of rare earth metals, accounting for 46% of the total imports of rare earth metals in the United States. Imported varieties are mainly based on strontium; 8809 tons of rare earth oxides are exported to the United States, accounting for China. 29.6% of the total exports of rare earth oxides accounted for 90% of the total imports of rare earth oxides in the United States, and the imported varieties were mainly cerium oxide; 5,988 tons of rare earth compounds were exported to the United States, accounting for 31.8% of the total exports of rare earth compounds in China. The variety is mainly strontium carbonate. In 2017, the United States imported a total of 10,200 tons of antimony, antimony oxide and barium carbonate from China, accounting for 71.5% of the total imports of its smelting and separating products. In terms of the amount, in 2017, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States amounted to US$68.372 million, accounting for 16.4% of the total export value of rare earth smelting and separating products in China. In addition, in 2017, China exported 3,358.85 tons of rare earth permanent magnet materials to the United States, accounting for 11.2% of China’s total exports of rare earth permanent magnet materials; the export value was nearly 150 million US dollars, accounting for 10.2% of China’s total exports of rare earth permanent magnet materials.

According to China’s export data on rare earth products in the United States in 2017, the United States has high dependence on rare earth products in China: unmixed rare earth carbonate, barium carbonate, barium carbonate, other compounds of barium, other compounds of barium, unmixed chlorine Rare earth, cerium oxide and cerium oxide.

From the perspective of the rare earth consumption structure in the United States, the catalysts mainly used for automobile exhaust gas purification and petroleum catalytic cracking are the largest downstream applications of rare earths, accounting for 55% of the total consumption of rare earths, and the rare earth elements used in the catalyst are mainly Light rare earth elements such as strontium and barium, which are also consistent with its imported varieties from China.

Sino-US trade war has both advantages and disadvantages for the rare earth industry

Overall, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States account for less than 30% of China’s total exports of rare earth smelting and separation products, and the export value is less than 20%, but for the United States, if traced back to the source, its rare earth Imports are almost entirely from China. According to the report of the “Fragile US Defense Industry Foundation” issued by the US Department of Defense, the United States has an “amazing” dependence on China’s key materials. China is the only source of imports of rare earths and energetic materials in the United States. Therefore, the United States imposes a 10% tariff on China’s rare earth export products, which has little impact on China’s rare earth industry. However, it will increase the cost of raw materials in the US manufacturing industry, and it will not protect its manufacturing industry. It is contrary to its original intention of adding tariffs.

Due to the dependence of the United States on the formation of rare earth products in China over the years, it is difficult to find a corresponding number of substitutes in China or outside China in the short term. Even if the current Mountain Pass mine has been trial-produced, if it wants to restore the rare earth smelting and separating industry chain, It is not a good day’s work, and the supply of rare earth producers outside China is also difficult to provide the corresponding amount of rare earth products.

According to the “Nikkei Business News” reported on August 6, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently released a report that the global production of plastic waste continues to increase, more than 300 million tons per year into the environment, causing negative impacts on tourism and fisheries. The various losses amounted to approximately $13 billion per year.

A portion of plastic waste can be incinerated and recycled, but discarded and landfilled plastic waste continues to increase in the environment and is projected to reach approximately 12 billion tons by 2050.

According to the report, the global production of plastic waste reached 302 million tons in 2015 with the latest data, which is 6 times compared with about 50 million tons in 1980.

On the other hand, the recycling rate is currently only about 15% of the total. The EU’s recycling rate is close to 30%, but Japan is only 20%.

Recently, the Ministry of Natural Resources released a message saying: Since last year, China’s oil and gas exploration and mining has made a number of new breakthroughs, especially the large increase in reserves and production of clean energy, and the accelerated commercialization of large-scale commercialization of shale gas, effectively safeguarding the country. Energy security has injected new momentum into economic development.

It is worth mentioning that the basins such as Erdos and Junggar have opened up new areas of oil reserves growth. Among them, two more than 100 million tons of oil fields in Huaqing and Jiyuan have been added to the Ordos Basin, and a new scale of 100 million tons of reserves has been discovered in the Junggar Basin.

At the same time, the quality of China’s oil and gas exploration and mining is also significantly improved. The Qaidam Basin is a representative.

It is understood that this year, Qinghai Oilfield has focused on a new exploration situation, focusing on work tasks, highlighting one goal, and optimizing five major oil and gas exploration battlefields. The heroic ridge and the front block of the Altun Mountains are currently the best in the Qaidam Basin, with the best exploration momentum, the fastest growth rate of reserves, and the best exploration benefit. They have already possessed the basic conditions for concentrated exploration. Therefore, Qinghai Oilfield determined that the main exploration of oil exploration is Hero Hill. According to the principle of “deepening the West, Yingzhong, Yingdong, exploring the dry water springs and preparing the oil springs”, 400 square kilometers of 3D earthquakes and 11 pre-exploration wells were deployed. Before the main exploration of natural gas in the Altun Mountains, according to the idea of ​​“mainly attacking the north, breaking through the cattle, deepening the cold north, preparing the crescent mountain”, the two-dimensional earthquake was deployed 300 kilometers and 9 exploration wells.

In addition, this year China has also achieved fruitful results in the field of shale gas exploration and exploitation. The reporter learned that on March 26, the Chongqing Fuling shale gas field was built with an annual production capacity of 10 billion cubic meters, becoming the largest shale gas field in the world except North America, equivalent to building a large oil field of 10 million tons. It indicates that China’s shale gas is accelerating into the stage of large-scale commercial development, which is of great significance to alleviating the supply pressure of the natural gas market in the central and eastern regions of China.

In the future, the prospects for shale gas exploration and exploitation in China are very bright. According to information released by the Ministry of Natural Resources recently, the accumulated proven geological reserves of shale gas in China have exceeded 1 trillion cubic meters. According to a report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, China’s total shale gas reserves are as high as 31.6 trillion cubic meters, ranking first in the world.

The US Wall Street Journal website published an article on July 24th entitled “Treaty of Tariffs Threats China’s Aspirations for American Oil,” saying that for the US oil industry, the escalating Sino-US trade war may mean that US oil will lose. The opportunity to break into a strategic market.

The article said that China has been the largest new buyer of shale oil in the United States. Today, China is the second largest consumer of US oil exports after Canada. China’s oil demand has soared in the past two years, and the country bought one-fifth of the US’s crude oil exports last year. This rapidly growing demand has made US oil exporters vulnerable to trade wars between the world’s two largest economies.

The article quoted Soresh Sivanandan of Wood Mackenzie Consulting in the United Kingdom as saying: “From the perspective of the United States, China is an important market, but (US oil shipments to China) only account for China’s oil imports. About 3%. So at this point, the US will lose more than China.”

The article said that two years ago, China’s economic slowdown and its pursuit of renewable energy made people further worried that China’s oil demand is reaching its peak. But the growing popularity of sport utility vehicles and air travel shows that China’s oil demand is still large. In recent years, China’s crude oil imports have not only declined, but have grown substantially, reaching a record 298 million barrels in January. At the beginning of last year, China overtook the United States to become the world’s largest oil importer. Today, 70% of China’s oil demand is imported, and according to the International Energy Agency, this number will climb to 80% by 2040.

The article believes that if China imposes tariffs on US oil, then US oil exporters may lose their long-term big buyers in China and turn to other countries to find smaller, more dispersed buyers.

According to the article, analysts believe that China’s oil demand (currently) is unlikely to peak, and it may continue to grow for at least several decades. Most importantly, this trade war is bound to highlight another reality: traditional energy once again dominates, but its center is turning to the East.

In the first half of 2018, China’s xylene imports increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. According to customs data, China’s xylene imports from January to June totaled about 308,800 tons, an increase of 73,600 tons compared with the same period of last year, an increase of about 29.79%. Although the increase of more than 70,000 tons is not large, the increase is still considerable. According to the performance of each month, as shown in the following figure, the import volume in January was the most, and it fell in 2-4 months, but it was still higher than the same period of last year, and the import volume rebounded from May to June.

In the case of increasing domestic aromatics production capacity, xylene imports are still significantly higher than last year, reflecting the optimism of merchants on the Chinese market demand. Judging from the difference between the domestic and foreign prices of xylene in East China, the first half of the first half of the year and the majority of the time in April were in the same state. In most of the other time, the external price difference was in an upside down state, which was not conducive to xylene import, but many reasons made domestic merchants There is still a certain tendency to import xylene.

Based on the view of the spring market, the import of xylene in the January-February period was more positive, but at the same time, the inventory level of the East China Port was high, and the demand did not follow up in time, which caused the market to decline significantly, and the import supply failed to profit. At the same time, it also affected the enthusiasm of merchants in March and April. However, the inventory level of Huadong Port was seriously reduced in May, and the internal and external disk arbitrage space was large. The news that Tenglong Aromatics PX plant is expected to restart in the middle of the year made the importing of xylene enthusiasm again, which led to an increase in xylene import from May to June.

In the second half of the year, it is expected that the import of xylene will be reduced again in July-August. The primary influencing factor is the sharp decline in the RMB caused by the Sino-US trade war. The unstable exchange rate makes merchants import more cautious. Although the domestic xylene market trend still has a lot of expectations in August, the external disk price is 300-400 yuan/ton higher than the domestic price. The further increase of domestic price may not exceed this range. In addition, from July to August, it will be subject to Japanese solar iron work. The equipment is still in the process of overhaul, and the supply of xylene in Asia is relatively tight. Therefore, the import of xylene from July to August is expected to be at a low level during the year.

In the second half to the fourth quarter of the third quarter, xylene imports are expected to continue to rise, mainly due to the overhaul of PX devices in South Korea and Taiwan. Among them, Formosa Plastics plans to overhaul the No. 2 plant in Maitun from mid-August to August in August. Day, the No. 2 plant has an annual output of 573,000 tons of PX, 427,000 tons of pure benzene and 160,000 tons of OX. Korea Lotte plans to overhaul two PX plants in October for one month, of which the No. 1 plant has a PX rated capacity of 250,000 tons. / Year, the capacity of the No. 2 plant is 525,000 tons / year. More PX equipment overhaul will make the supply of Asian xylene more abundant in the second half of the third quarter and the fourth quarter. In addition, the Japanese solar iron aromatics unit is expected to restart in September, and the plant will produce 700,000 tons of isomerized xylene per year. The supply of toluene will increase. Therefore, the relationship between the internal and external discs is expected to reverse gradually from August to October, which will help domestic xylene imports rebound.

Since 2018, with the increasingly strict environmental protection and environmental protection in the economic belt along the Yangtze River, phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer have entered the stage of de-capacity, the supply and demand structure has improved, prices have continued to rise, and the phosphate fertilizer industry has rebounded. For the second half of the market outlook, Tianfeng Securities predicts that the pressure of future environmental protection and supply-side reform will continue. With the peak season of phosphate fertilizer demand coming from August to October, the price of phosphate fertilizer products is expected to continue to rise, which will also promote Sylt and Xinyang. The profitability of Fengfeng and other phosphate compound fertilizers continued to increase.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from 2018 to April, the country’s cumulative production of phosphate ore was 32.7 million tons, compared with 46.94 million tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 14.24 million tons, down 30% year-on-year. It is understood that the production of phosphate fertilizer in the Yangtze River Economic Belt accounts for more than 80% of the country’s total output. With the promulgation of the “Eco-Environmental Protection Plan for the Yangtze River Economic Belt” and other documents, the production and production stoppage policies of major phosphate producing areas along the Yangtze River have been introduced. Under the pressure, the decline in phosphate ore production and supply tightening are the mainstream trends in the current industry.

Under the overall requirements of “Great Yangtze River Protection”, the phosphate compound fertilizer industry is faced with not only the shutdown and relocation, but also the historical opportunity of capacity replacement and optimization of structure. “Environmental and safety supervision and upgrading has brought not only pain to the industry, but also opportunities for industrial upgrading and advantageous enterprises,” said Chen Qingjun, deputy chief engineer of the Petrochemical Industry Planning Institute.

NEW YORK, July 31 news, COMEX copper rose to the highest level in two weeks on Tuesday.

August copper futures closed up 4 cents at $2.8190 a pound.

The most active September copper contract closed 3.95 cents higher at $2.8315 per pound.

Copper prices have rebounded slightly since hitting a one-year low earlier this month, but are still down nearly 14% from the four-year high set in June. Despite the price increase on Tuesday, copper futures were the worst since September 2017.

Some analysts worry that protecting the lives will reduce the demand for copper, which is used in everything from air conditioners to electric vehicles.

The Chilean state-owned copper company (Codelco) Chuquicamata copper mine union leader said that the copper miners left their posts on Monday and blocked the mine’s entrances and exits.

The Chilean state-owned copper company criticized the act as “illegal.” The copper mine is the company’s second largest copper mine.

BHP Billiton’s Escondida copper mine union leader said on Monday that the union is expected to reject the final version of the salary contract proposed by the employer, increasing the possibility of a strike. The mine is the world’s largest copper mine.

On July 29th, the PX Commodity Index was 61.00, which was the same as yesterday. It was 40.43% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 102.40 points (2013-02-28), which was 33.92% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic market price of para-xylene rose to 7687.5 yuan / ton, the equipment installation Pengzhou Petrochemical overhaul, Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%, Tenglong aromatics plant has been in the parking, other devices temporarily stable, domestic p-xylene market supply is normal. The international PX installation rate is less than 70%. Sinopec’s PX settlement price in July rose 680 yuan/ton to 8140 yuan/ton. On July 27, the Asian p-xylene market closed price rose 15 US dollars/ton, and the closing price was 1030.5- 1032.5 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 1049.5-1051.5 US dollars / ton CFR China, US WTI crude oil September futures market prices fell, reported 68.69 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 0.92 US dollars, Brent crude oil September futures prices fell, reported 74.29 US dollars / barrel, a decline of $ 0.25. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production, and the PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the end of the 27th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 80%, the PTA price continued to rise, and the average price in East China was 6315 yuan/ton. From the near mention, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced state of small de-stocking, it is expected that the PX market price will be slightly higher in the later period.

Statistics from the Peruvian Central Bank show that in February, Peru’s mineral export value was 2.195 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year; copper mine exports were 184,900 tons, down 16%. Lead exports amounted to 67,900 tons. Zinc exports amounted to US$245 million, an increase of 27%. Although export volume decreased by 5% to 105,300 tons, export prices increased by 34%.