Multiple factors have caused oil prices to fall in the near future: First, the escalation of trade frictions initiated by the United States has triggered concerns about the global economic slowdown and the impact on crude oil demand. Second, the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand next year. Third, the demand for crude oil in Asia has declined. Fourth, US crude oil inventories and production both increased, while refined oil and inventories also rose sharply.

Affected by the depreciation of emerging market currencies and trade tensions, the global economic outlook is uncertain and dragged down demand for crude oil, and international crude oil prices have fallen under pressure. Last week, New York West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell for the seventh consecutive week, down 2.7%, the longest losing streak since 2015; London North Sea Brent crude oil futures fell for the third consecutive week, a decline of 1.4%.

The analysis believes that multiple factors have caused oil prices to fall under pressure: First, the escalation of trade frictions initiated by the United States has triggered concerns about the global economic slowdown and the impact on crude oil demand. Trade frictions have been putting pressure on the market in the past few months. Trade friction between the United States and China has made investors feel uneasy. Last week, the diplomatic relations between the United States and Turkey deteriorated, the high tariffs between the United States and Turkey, and the sovereign currency crisis in Turkey continued to ferment, raising international community concerns about the instability of emerging markets. Market risk aversion has risen sharply, and global stock markets and commodity markets have complained. If the situation in Turkey deteriorates further, it will threaten to exacerbate currency fluctuations and capital outflows in emerging market countries, further increasing the value of the US dollar and thus lowering oil prices.

Second, the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand next year. OPEC’s latest monthly report on the crude oil market shows that demand for OPEC crude oil is expected to be 32.05 million barrels per day in 2019, a decrease of 130,000 barrels per day from the previous month. In 2019, global crude oil demand growth is expected to be lowered to 1.43 million barrels per day, with a previous value of 1.45 million barrels per day. At the same time, the monthly report raised the daily average crude oil supply of non-OPEC countries by 30,000 barrels to 2.13 million barrels. The monthly report also showed that OPEC’s daily output increased by 41,000 barrels to 32.32 million barrels. Among them, Saudi Arabia’s oil production in July was 10.28 million barrels, a decrease of 200,000 barrels from June. Saudi Arabia said that the cut was mainly due to increased production by competitors, and Saudi Arabia hoped to avoid another oversupply.

Third, the demand for crude oil in Asia has declined. According to shipping data, the annualized growth rate of demand in China, India, Japan and South Korea has dropped from 3.5% in 2016 to around 2% today. Among them, China’s largest crude oil importer China and India’s imports in July fell by about 500,000 barrels from the January-June average of 12.4 million barrels per day. The market generally believes that if trade disputes and emerging market turmoil lead to further deterioration of the global economic outlook, Asian oil demand will continue to weaken.

Fourth, US crude oil inventories and production double growth, while refined oil and inventories also rose sharply, so oil prices fell sharply. According to the latest inventory report of the US Energy Information Administration, as of the week of August 10, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 6.8 million barrels to 414 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since the week of March 10, 2017. It is estimated to be reduced by 2.5 million barrels. More data showed that crude oil inventories increased by 1.64 million barrels last week, the largest increase since the week of April 6; refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 383,000 barrels per day to 17.89 million barrels per day, a record high. In addition, last week, US domestic crude oil production increased by 100,000 barrels to 10.9 million barrels per day.

Obviously, negative sentiment will continue to pervade, and international crude oil prices will remain weak and weak in the short term. But in the long run, the US government will fully resume sanctions against Iran and sharply squeeze Iranian crude oil exports, which will lead to further tightening of global supply. The international crude oil market price may be supported.

According to a report by Platts on August 14, Dubai, sources close to Libyan crude oil production said on Tuesday that Libyan crude oil production broke through the 1 million barrel mark for the first time since the beginning of June.

According to sources, the most new production comes mainly from the Sala Lada oil field, which increased its daily production of crude oil from 218,000 barrels last week to more than 250,000 barrels.

According to a recent survey by Standard & Poor’s Global Platts Consulting, the average daily production of crude oil in Libya fell to 670,000 barrels in July, the lowest level since April 2017.

The Sala Lada field is operated by the Libyan National Oil Company and an international consortium of French Total, Repsol, Statoil and the Austrian Oil and Gas Group. In the past few years, the Sarawaka oil field has been forced to close several times due to worker protests and attacks by the tribal militias on the export pipeline.

According to sources, the Sala Lada oil field consists of three production areas located in the southwestern part of the Myrzuk Basin. Earlier this month, two of the production areas resumed operations relatively quickly, with daily production increasing to around 200,000 barrels. However, the third producing area, the NC-186 producing area, presents a more difficult picture of safety.

London August 15 news, LME base metals futures fell sharply on Wednesday, as the market worried that the global economic growth prospects and demand were hit by trade, political tensions and the dollar.

At 17:00 on August 15th, London time (00:00 on August 16th, Beijing time), three-month copper fell 4% to $5,801 per ton, and the contract hit a 15-month low of $5,773 per ton.

Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said, “Most of the increase in metal demand is coming to emerging markets, and now market participants have questioned this.”

“The slowdown in China’s economic growth has been going on for some time, and the overall impact of the US tariff on Chinese goods imports has not yet been seen. The current price seems attractive, but it does not rule out further market down.”

Although China’s January-July trade data shows that China’s imports are limited, analysts expect data to deteriorate in the coming months.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the growth rate of China’s fixed asset investment slowed to 5.5% in the first seven months, and the slowdown exceeded expectations, highlighting weak domestic demand and corporate confidence in the context of slowing trade with the US. Frustrated.

In July, the added value of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6% year-on-year, which was the same as that in June, but the growth rate was lower than market expectations.

US President Trump provoked a trade war that has led several countries to launch tit-for-tat trade measures against the United States.

In the past week, the Turkish lira has fallen sharply to a record low, which has led to global market turmoil.

The market focus returned to the impact of the Turkish lira’s plunge on more emerging markets, causing global stock markets to fall and the dollar to rise. Investors are also concerned about the level of insurance in the European banking industry in Turkey and are selling off emerging market assets.

The US dollar index rose above 96.9, the first time in June 2017.

A higher dollar means that dollar-denominated commodity prices become more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at Markets.com, said, “It is hard to believe that the Turkish authorities are prepared to take some sensible monetary and fiscal measures to deal with the crisis.”

The world’s largest copper mine, the Chilean Escondida union, said on Wednesday that union members would look at the latest labor contract proposal from BHP Billiton (BHP) to avoid planned strikes.

Prior to this, the two sides conducted a six-day negotiation after the government intervened to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 44-day strike last year. At that time, the global copper market was severely affected and dragged Chile’s economic growth.

The union said on Tuesday that some key issues have been agreed with the company, but it will take another day to solve other problems.

ING said in a report, “The market has already predicted that the mine will have a strike action, but it seems that the negotiations between the labor and management sides have made progress.”

Three-month aluminum closed down 2.2% at $2,025 a tonne.

Three-month zinc fell 6.3% to $2,300 a tonne, and the contract hit $2,291 per tonne, the lowest since October 2016.

Three-month lead plummeted 7.1% to $1,927 a tonne, the biggest one-day drop in about seven years. The intraday contract fell to a low of $1,919.50 per tonne since October 2016.

Three-month nickel fell 4.3% to $12,850 a tonne, the lowest level in six months.

Three-month tin closed down 3.2% at $18,405 per tonne.

China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. The United States is the world’s largest exporter of agricultural products. In the Sino-US economic and trade consultations, agriculture has always been a core issue.

Recently, Han Jun, deputy director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said in an exclusive interview with CCTV reporters that under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, we resolutely safeguard the core interests of the country and rationally handle the current Sino-US economic and trade issues. The necessary countermeasures not taken are rational and restrained. China will actively, steadily and orderly expand the opening up of agriculture.

The counter-measures adopted by China have been limited in their domestic influence through careful evaluation.

So far, China has published two batches of tariff lists for imported goods from the United States. In the first batch of lists, the Chinese side issued an announcement to impose a 25% tariff on US$50 billion of goods, involving a total of 517 agricultural products. In the second batch of lists, the Chinese side decided to impose tariffs on the approximately 60 billion US dollars of products imported from the United States according to the law at 25%, 20%, 10%, and 5%, involving 387 agricultural products. At present, nearly 90% of the agricultural products imported from the United States have been taxed.

Han Jun said that China has to make such counter-measures, and it has also been made on the basis of extensive solicitation of opinions and careful evaluation. China imposes tariffs on US agricultural products exported to China, which will have a great impact on the export of US agricultural products, but has limited domestic impact. “We are constantly assessing the effectiveness of these tax increases, especially for the domestic market, and we must ensure that the impact on domestic industries and people’s lives is minimized.”

The advantage of US soybean exports to China has been lost

Influenced by the escalation of Sino-US economic and trade frictions, the impact of US agriculture can be foreseen. In the case of soybeans, US soybeans imported from China account for 60% of US soybean exports and more than six times that of the United States. China has adopted counter-measures and imposed a 25% tariff. The advantage of US soybean exports to China has been lost.

Han Jun pointed out that in the international market, agricultural products export is very competitive. If the US exports to China’s agricultural products are blocked, other countries have the willingness to replace the US market share. Now that the United States has provoked trade conflicts and continues to increase its weight, China is unwilling to fight trade wars. However, in the face of the continuous escalation of trade conflicts in the United States, it has to make necessary counter-measures.

China has adopted counter-measures against the United States, and imports from the United States will drop sharply. In order to prevent the linkage effect and increase the pressure on domestic food prices, the relevant departments have made thorough preparations. “For example, China can expand imports of soybeans from other countries such as Brazil, such as rapeseed meal, which can completely replace soybean meal. We have confidence and ability to ensure supply in the domestic market. We have this confidence.”

China will continue to expand agricultural opening up

In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has become the world’s largest importer of agricultural products, and agricultural imports account for 1/10 of the global agricultural trade. At present, China, such as soybeans, sugar, cotton and other agricultural products, are the world’s largest buyers. The development of agricultural products trade has effectively alleviated the pressure on domestic agricultural resources and the environment, ensuring the smooth operation of domestic supply and market.

“China’s agricultural opening up is also comprehensive. The export of agricultural products should be exported. We must give play to our comparative advantages and increase the income of farmers. We must actively participate in this import to meet the people’s growing demand for quality food and quality agricultural products. Demand.” Han Jun said that it will continue to expand its openness and actively increase imports. This is China’s established policy.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2%, and the chemical industry rose 1.72%, weaker than the market. The sub-industries have risen and fallen, and the sub-sectors such as phosphate fertilizer, vinylon and compound fertilizer have shown an increase. Other fibers, polyester and viscose, which had a large increase last week, have seen a correction.

In the wake of futures surges and the depreciation of the renminbi, the cost of imported goods increased, the inventory in the port and the mainland was low, and the downstream maintenance olefin plant plan was restarted, the price rose sharply, with an increase of 200-270 yuan/ton.

The price of acetic acid continued to rise slightly, and the price increase in each region was around RMB 50/ton.

The domestic mainstream propylene market price continued to rise sharply, and the new high in the year, the price of each region rose to more than 9,000 yuan.

The domestic urea market began to rebound after bottoming out. The potash market continued to rise slightly in the firm. The phosphate fertilizer market is running smoothly.

The glyphosate market is sideways. The supplier quoted 2.7-2.95 million yuan / ton, the market turnover to 2.7-2.75 million yuan / ton

The domestic pure MDI market dropped at a high level. The aggregated MDI is falling back, the downstream is subject to environmental protection, the overall starting load is not high, the demand for raw materials is general, and the high price is resisting emotion.

Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that CNPC may suspend the purchase of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) stocks during the winter heating season. According to the plan, CNPC will increase the amount of spot purchases in other countries.

According to the Natural Gas Market Report 2018, the total amount of LNG imported by China in the first half of 2018 was 23.663 million tons, an increase of 51.3% over the same period of 2017. The growth rate is staggering. Most of the imports came from Australia, reaching 10.133 million tons, followed by Qatar. According to Anxun statistics, in the first half of 2018, China imported a total of 70 LNG stocks, 21 of which were from Australia.

Currently, CNPC is in deep consultation with Qatar and plans to purchase LNG through short-term and long-term agreements. Traders also said that Chinese buyers are already looking for alternatives to LNG supply due to Sino-US trade wars.

In addition, the Sino-Russian energy cooperation project, the Yamal LNG project, will build three LNG production lines with an annual output of 5.5 million tons. After completion, it will produce LNG 16.5 million tons per year. According to the signed long-term purchase and sale agreement, PetroChina will import 3 million tons of LNG from the Yamal project every year from 2019. On July 19, the first ship, Yamal LNG, arrived at the Jiangsu Rudong LNG receiving station and successfully delivered it to CNPC.

At the press conference of China’s first ship Yamal LNG, the National Energy Administration Director Bai Keli said that Russia will become the first importer of natural gas in China. Whether it is pipeline gas or liquefied natural gas (LNG), Russian natural gas will become more and more important in China’s natural gas supply chain.

The United States is a major exporter of LNG. Since 2016, 60% of US LNG has been sold in the spot market. In 2017, China’s imports accounted for 15% of US LNG exports.

In July of this year, the United States exported liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China to a minimum. Shipping data shows that US LNG sales to China fell from nearly 400,000 tons in May to only 130,000 tons in July, while supply from Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia and Papua New Guinea increased.

Since the beginning of July, the domestic pure benzene market started the first round of the second half of the market, and set the biggest increase this year. Last week, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised by 200 yuan (ton price, the same below) to 6,850 yuan, a month-on-month increase of more than 14%. Recently, the price of pure benzene in the East China market was 6950 to 7000 yuan, and the price of hydrogenated benzene was 6800 to 6850 yuan. The high-end price in some regions even exceeded 7,000 yuan.

According to China Chemical Industry News reported on August 9, Shao Huiwen, marketing manager of Henan Kaipu Group, said that the pure benzene downstream market performed well in July, and more than 90% of downstream enterprises were in a profitable state. Among them, the profit of styrene, cyclohexanone, caprolactam and other products reached 2,500 to 3,500 yuan, and the profit per ton of enterprises reached nearly 4,000 yuan.

According to Sinopec and PetroChina, from August to September, Anhui 260,000 tons/year new styrene plant was put into operation, Shandong Jinling 200,000 tons/year aniline plant was restarted, and the demand for pure benzene will also increase. .

Statistics from Henan Petroleum and Chemical Network show that since July, the inventory of pure benzene ports has continued to decline. As of August 3, the inventory of major domestic ports has dropped from 240,000 tons to 200,000 tons, a drop of 20%, and there is room for further decline.

In addition to port inventory, domestic production enterprises’ inventory has also fallen to a low level. At the same time, the rise in external disk prices has affected the subsequent import of goods to Hong Kong, supporting the domestic market to continue to improve, and boosting the seller’s mentality. It is understood that on August 3, the pure benzene FOB Korea closed up to 876 US dollars, equivalent to more than 7,000 yuan.

In addition, the reporter of China Chemical Industry News learned from Shandong refinery enterprises that due to the increase in crude oil prices and the subsidy of consumption tax, local refineries have experienced large-scale production and production restrictions, and individual scale refining enterprises have even filed for bankruptcy.

According to industry insiders, on the basis of the increase in demand, the domestic supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and traders have actively joined the speculation team. This round of market is in the key node of the rising channel. If the short-term external market continues to be high, the domestic market still has room for growth. The price in the second half of the year does not rule out the possibility of creating a new high for the year.

According to the ICIS-MRC price report, European producers lowered the price of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) shipped to the CIS market in August, although the contract price of raw ethylene has doubled.

In the context of stable ethylene prices, most European producers announced that high-density polyethylene (HDPE) prices will rise in August compared to July, but LDPE prices have fallen.