According to the Nigerian “Pioneer” reported on October 9, oil prices fell 65 cents on the 8th to 83.51 US dollars per barrel, while last week’s closing time was 86.74 US dollars (four-year high). Earlier, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said that oil prices have not fallen below $80 a barrel in 2018, and it is expected to continue to tighten the monetary policy before completing inflation control targets. Observers believe that unless the United States increases sanctions, Iranian oil will continue to export, thus alleviating global supply pressure. US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports will begin on November 4, and Washington has been putting pressure on governments and businesses around the world to reduce crude oil imports from Iran to zero.
The US energy analysts who imposed sanctions on Iran said, “This is one of the biggest supporting factors for the rise in crude oil prices, but it is likely that we have passed the peak of this influence and its impact will soon begin to ease.” Concerned that other producers (such as Saudi Arabia’s major exporter) increased production to compensate for lower Iranian supplies, and oil prices also fell. Saudi Arabia said last week that it plans to increase production sharply in November, while October production has reached 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd), indicating that Saudi Arabia will increase production to an all-time high. Stephen Innes, head of trading at Oanda Asia Pacific, a Singapore-based futures brokerage firm, said, “Saudi Arabia has made up for all Iran’s share.” Asian traders say concerns about a possible Sino-US trade war that could slow world economic growth and hit oil demand have also weighed on the market. . China’s stock market fell sharply on Monday.
However, CBN President Godwin Emefiele explained that the price of crude oil in 2018 will not be lower than $80 per barrel. In an interview with Reuters at the World Bank Conference in London, he said that as long as US sanctions are in force for Iran in November, “I expect the price to be no lower than $80 this year.” Regarding the interests of Nigeria, he said, “The current The tightening state will continue until at least we see inflation reaching the target level.” He pointed out that Nigeria will continue to intervene to support its exchange rate, although he noticed that the pressure on the currency reserves of banks and countries is lower than other emerging markets, but “we will continue to intervene and must maintain a stable exchange rate.”