In the low season potassium chloride market is poor, after the wind direction is also clear and rainy, elusive. To what extent has the price of potassium chloride fallen now? Is there any impact of Sino-US trade frictions? Exchange rate fluctuation, Qinghai reduction and other factors under the big contract negotiations will be how? Domestic potassium faucet Salt Lake shares next month will be how to adjust the new price?

Now let’s take a look at apostles.

Imported potassium falls below cost line after 51 For fertilizer people, this year’s spring has come particularly late but the walk is not muddy. After 51, the price of potassium chloride all the way down, the current border trade 62% white potassium has fallen to less than 2050 yuan (ton price, the same below), the port 60% red powder has fallen to less than 2150 yuan, and the former May monthly import cost price of 2120 yuan, the latter’s apparent cost of 2310 Yuan, rebate after the cost of 2160 yuan, That is to say, at least a loss of 70 yuan and 10 yuan respectively. As for the port 62% white potassium, especially 60% red granular potassium price some confusion, the general quotation, ton package or bulk goods quotation and the actual transaction price of the overall range is larger, probably near 2280-2380 yuan, and its apparent cost, return after the cost of the range of 2200-2380 yuan, It can be said that a leg has also stepped into the loss.

And the key problem is that it is not yet possible to conclude that such a price is already bottoming out.

The influence of Sino-US trade friction upgrade Talk about to go to the tariff or add to each other, in the face of the trade war, other we dare not say, potash people can indeed pat the chest said “to fight and fight”, because-potassium chloride, potassium sulfate import and export and the United States does not have much intersection. This point the previous day has the industry detailed list of data, the author will not repeat. In addition, there is a voice in the market that Sino-US trade frictions have reduced imports of agricultural products, favorable to the rise in domestic agricultural prices, increased demand, and indirectly will be good fertilizer demand and prices. In this regard, the author has reservations. Because one of the agricultural products to add tariffs is the last thing that has happened, nearly a year of agricultural product prices have surged? The other is that we only add to the United States, not with the world! Therefore, do not be too “hot blood”, do not forget the upper layer of strong regulatory capacity, and do not ignore the import volume and structure of the details of the change.

The key also to remember that strength is not created by not letting people in!

Production reduction, devaluation and large contract negotiation In the early stage, I have repeatedly stressed that the second half of potassium chloride trend can be reversed one of the key points lies in the extent of domestic potassium production reduction, at present, this reduction has indeed reached the point of not to be belittled. Just now, domestic potassium production in the top three of the enterprise’s potassium chloride daily production of only about 14,000 tons, 24% less than the same period last year, 30% less than the same period in 2017! Of course, this kind of contrast is not really convincing, because it is only a small short period of performance, but the author is still more worried about the last six months to end the various statistical data after the market response.

In addition, from May 9 to date, the renminbi has fallen 8 days against the dollar, the median price from 6.7596 to 6.8988, today’s real-time exchange price has reached about 6.93, such a change will make potassium chloride import costs up to nearly 50 yuan. At first glance, the above two points seem to support the domestic price of potassium chloride, but in fact not necessarily. First of all, although the production of domestic potassium will reduce the weight of negotiations, but the current low-season potassium chloride port stock is far greater than the same period in previous years, and nearly half a year the price of the international potash market has been stable and difficult to rise, in the past six months there have been about 5 of dollars in the fall, so the 82 weight of foreign investors Because the upward trend is not good, so changes in the exchange rate are more likely to be reflected in the buyer’s price, so the rise in the cost of the yuan’s price increase is likely to be reflected in the big contract is down 5-6 of dollars, which is only from the exchange rate point of view.

From the existing situation analysis, the author initially believes that the new large-contract negotiations on both sides can not be delayed, the signing time should still be within 7-September, the price on the basis of 290 of dollars or about 10-20 of dollars in the fall.

Forecast of domestic potassium June price Salt Lake June New Price is afraid to fall back, according to the current import potassium price situation, if the fall or will be around 50 yuan. First of all, in the low season, Hong Kong deposit, so the short-term price trend is impossible to reverse, second, the recent decline in imports of potassium is obvious, the coastal market in the domestic potassium circulation price has followed the downward adjustment; third, after 4 May of sales, Salt Lake in June need to ensure a certain collection, even if not cut prices but there may be other

But after this stage of the off-season, in the second half of the domestic potassium production and marketing situation will appear to be particularly important, you can look forward to perhaps become the trigger of the late price increase. In summary, no matter how to see the aftermarket, want to carry out what kind of operation, now do not have to worry, first patiently watch it.

In the past 2 days, a-share rare earth permanent magnet concept stock has experienced a “roller coaster.” May 16, the concept of rare earth permanent magnet set off a wave of trading, Northern Rare earth (600111), Guangsheng nonferrous (600259), Shenghe Resources (600392), Minmetals rare earth (000831), Medium color Shares (000758), Ningbo Yun Sheng (600366), East Fujian Electric Power (000993), North Mine Technology (600980) and other nearly 20 stocks collective trading. On the same day, the A-share market also in the low after the concussion higher, the three major stock indices are red reported. However, the wave of trading is only a flash in the pan. May 17, A shares high and low walk, the three major stock indexes fell more than 2% at the same time, rare earth concept stocks also closed with varying degrees of decline. Northern Rare earth closing price of 10.99 yuan/share, down 1.96%; Guangsheng colored closing price 37.50 yuan/share, down 5.52%; Xiamen tungsten Industry closing price 13.33 yuan/share, down 6.59%. What factors caused the roller coaster market?

For the previous day’s rise, the industry is widely believed to be caused by short-term supply concerns for rare earths. November 3, 2018, Yunnan Tengchong customs banned all Burmese resources imported into China, including rare earth mineral resources. December 14, 2018, Tengchong customs in response to Myanmar rare Earth mine clearance, the implementation period of 5 months, that is, from May 2019 onwards will be a total ban on the import of rare earth minerals into China; February 14, 2019, the municipal government of Tengchong, Yunnan province to completely stop the export of rare earth related chemical raw materials to Myanmar, coverage including Tengchong Yunnan Beach Port,

As well as the state-level port Chicho and the surrounding port. According to Tengchong customs clearance operations staff, the closure of rare earth imports and the export of rare earth related production materials is a unified deployment of the local government, mainly considering the safety of domestic migrant workers, and other factors such as domestic industrial regulation.

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He said that the gathering area of rare earth development in Myanmar, there are contradictions between local armed forces and Burmese Government, the interests of the two are not consistent, the safety of local migrant workers is difficult to guarantee. Notably, before the ban, Myanmar was China’s largest importer of ionic rare earths. According to customs data, Myanmar imported 25,800 tonnes of mixed rare earth carbonate (about 20,000 tons of oxides) in 2018, accounting for 85%, and the domestic medium-weight rare earth quota (about 20,000 tons) is comparable. However, monthly data showed that the number of rare earth carbonate imports in November 2018 and December fell by 69% and 59% respectively compared with October of the same year.

The market predicts that the supply of medium-heavy rare earths in China will be significantly reduced after the closure. “Not only are offshore mines not coming in, we are still shutting down, and there is less supply,” a person from a large rare earth group told surging News.

“This person refers to the shutdown is, since 2017, the domestic heavy rare earth because of environmental verification and resource costs, some mining is blocked and shut down, the domestic medium and heavy rare earth mineral mining/quota utilization rate has been in a very low position.” It is reported that China heavy rare earth heavily in Jiangxi since 2018 all rare earth mines have been discontinued state, Gannan Rare earth mines have been discontinued for nearly 3 years, has not yet been reused.

The ion-type rare earth quota in Jiangxi Province accounts for nearly half of the national total quota, and the influence of Jiangxi mine shutdown on the supply of medium and heavy rare earths in China is “seismic type”. That is why Myanmar’s imports of medium-heavy rare earths have become an important complement in the past two years.

Market analysis that once Myanmar imports ore seals, some smelting separation plants or into a “rice-free cooking” situation. Rare Earth is a generic term for 17 kinds of metal elements, known as the “industrial msg” reputation, widely used in electronic information, petrochemical, metallurgy, machinery, energy and other 13 fields more than 40 industries. The reason why it has become the focus of resource competition lies in its ability to apply to military high and new technologies such as missiles, intelligent weapons, navigation instruments and jet engines. In particular, medium and heavy rare earths are considered to be a strategic resource. China’s rare earth ore is mainly divided into Inner Mongolia Baotou Baiyun Ebo Rare Earth ore as the representative of the mixed light rare earth ore, Sichuan Mianning fluorine cerium light rare earth and the southern medium heavy ion rare earth ore. In recent years, China has supplied 70% of the world’s production with nearly 40% of its global reserves.

How to effectively supervise and exploit the dispersed Southern ionic mines has become an important part of protecting China’s strategic resources. However, China is shifting from a major exporter of rare earths to a major importer of rare earths amid ongoing government measures such as “rare earth black”. ASEAN countries such as Myanmar, Australia and the United States are important sources of rare earths imports in China. It is worth mentioning that the United States also maintains a high degree of dependence on rare earth magnets in China, taking into account such factors as the cost of restarting the mine and the impact on the environment. In the US list of tax increases for China, rare earths, key minerals and other resources are not on the list. In a study, Tian Feng Securities pointed out that this reflects the United States on China’s rare earth resources, magnetic materials are still strong dependence.

According to Baku, Trend news agency in Azerbaijan, the Trend news agency, citing OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report (MOMR), reported that 14 OPEC members produced an average of 30.03 million barrels a year in early April, the same as in March.

The main members of the decline in crude oil production in April were Saudi Arabia and Angola, while crude oil production in Iraq, Nigeria and Libya increased in April, the report said. OPEC’s share of crude oil produced in April in the world’s total crude oil production for the month remained unchanged from March, remaining at 30.4%.

The estimate is based on preliminary data on supply to non-OPEC oil producers, OPEC gas liquid production and direct communication of unconventional oil, while estimates of OPEC crude oil production are based on second-hand sources. On December 7 last year, the fifth ministerial meeting of OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers reached an agreement in Vienna to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a year from January 1.

Mexico’s government has approved a fiscal stimulus that could increase the production of Mexico’s National Petroleum Corporation by 400,000 barrels a day, according to a report on today’s oil price website quoting Mexican Finance Minister Carlos Urzua.

The measure involves signing credit agreements with Hong Kong HSBC, JPMorgan Chase and Mizuho Securities. Under the new terms, the loan term of $5.5 billion will be extended for two years and about $2.5 billion of the existing debt will be refinanced, the official said.

The money will be used to continue to exploit oil in aging oilfields in the current recession. To this end, the old oilfields involved under this measure will be transferred to the production sharing agreement introduced by the former Mexican government as part of the comprehensive energy reform passed in 2014.

Mexico has been trying to reverse the steady decline in crude oil production caused by inadequate investment and the urgent need for new discoveries. The former government tried to solve the problem by breaking Pemex’s monopoly in the market and inviting foreign companies to explore for oil and gas at sea.

At the same time, however, the new government is as eager to increase production as its predecessor: it promises that Mexico’s crude oil production will reach 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of its term of office, close to the average of 2.52 million barrels per day in 2013.

The new government also announced that it would combine debt refinancing and tax cuts to provide the heavily indebted Mexican National Oil Company with a lifeline of $3.6 billion.

Mexico National Petroleum Corp.’s average crude oil production in 2018 was 1.183 million barrels a day, according to data from Mexico National Petroleum Corp. By contrast, the average output in 2013 was 2.522 million barrels per day, falling to 1.948 million barrels per day in 2017.

International Energy Agency Administrator Fatih Birol said on June 16 that in recent years, the global development of liquid natural gas has been very rapid, and the proportion of LNG facilities under construction in all countries exceeds that of pipeline transportation of natural gas; at the same time, the volume of trade has increased rapidly, especially in Asia. China is expected to overtake Japan as the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas. In 2025, nearly 50 countries will import liquefied natural gas.

Fatih Birol made this prediction at the “High-end Forum of Clean Power International Engineering Science and Technology 2019″ held in Beijing on the 16th.

He analyzed that 2018 was the fastest growing year for global primary energy demand. Half of the new energy demand is met by natural gas, followed by renewable energy and oil, coal and nuclear energy. China’s extensive “Blue Sky Project” and prevention and control of atmospheric pollution have led to a substantial increase in global natural gas demand.

“But at the rate of growth, global electricity demand is growing twice as fast as other energy sources, and our world is increasingly affected by electricity.” Fatih Birol said.

In his view, China’s photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation and related equipment manufacturing are at the highest level in the world, leading the development of related industries in the world. The Chinese government’s policy support for wind and photovoltaic power generation not only benefits China, but also benefits the whole world.

With the increasing global energy demand, environmental pressure is still increasing. In 2018, global carbon dioxide emissions reached an all-time high.

“Climate change is a huge challenge that cannot be solved by a single technology, nor by renewable energy alone. It requires the integration of technologies. We hope to continue to cooperate with China in renewable energy utilization, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy development and carbon dioxide capture and storage, so as to bring greater help to global environmental improvement. Fatih Birol said.

Surveillance data from the Business Association (100ppi.com) showed that the price of natural rubber had risen all the way by the end of April under the influence of “mixing rubber classification”, and had risen by 6.8% by May 10. The price of spot rubber had risen by 1000 yuan per ton since May, up by 10.34%.

Influencing factors:

1. The change of trade and economic environment has attracted much attention. May 13 – 15 Shanghai glue quotation shocks adjustment, a small margin, normal shipment of traders.

2. Short-term cutting in domestic rubber producing areas. Since last week, affected by high temperature, drought and mite hazards, some natural rubber production areas in China have been short-term cutting, and the supply of new rubber is tight.

3. High temperature and drought affect foreign producing areas. According to local news, also affected by high temperature and drought, the production of new rubber in Southeast Asian rubber producing countries such as India decreased, and the demand of local tire enterprises was strong, which expressed concern about future supply.

In summary, business analysts believe that the recent trade situation and the impact of new rubber cutting on the natural rubber market have attracted much attention. On the 15th, Shanghai Rubber Night Market opened up 1.7%, and on the 16th, Shanghai Rubber Night Market rose sharply by 500-600 yuan/ton, closing up by about 5.2%. Business Association monitoring, Tianjiao spot quotation rose, the distribution price generally increased by 500-600 yuan/ton, some traders said that the market rose too much, leading to “no quotation”. Follow-up continued to pay attention to the trade situation and weather conditions in domestic and foreign rubber areas.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly crude oil market report on the 15th, cutting its global average daily oil demand growth forecast by 90,000 barrels to 1.3 million barrels in 2019.

The report predicts that global oil demand will average 100.4 billion barrels per day in 2019.

The report said that the global crude oil supply is facing great uncertainty due to the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, the situation in Libya and the pollution of Russian oil pipelines to Europe.

The report shows that in April this year, the world’s average daily oil supply fell by 300,000 barrels to 99.3 million barrels. Among them, Canada, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijani and Iran experienced the largest decline in supply.

Starting last Wednesday, the plastic futures contract 1909 broke through the bottom track of the box oscillation of 8,200 yuan/ton, showing a cliff-like decline. In the past five trading days, the 1909 contract dropped to 7650 yuan/ton from 8200 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of more than 6.7%, the lowest since February 2016. Although on Wednesday, due to the short-term decline of futures prices is too large and too far away from the 5-day average, futures prices showed signs of stopping falling, but the weak characteristics are obvious, lack of upward momentum.

From the perspective of the average system, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day and 60-day average began to show divergent short-term pattern, highlighting the strong momentum of short-term price decline. In terms of MACD indicators, green column entities continue to appear, and the length of entities rapidly expands, suggesting that the short power is growing rapidly. In addition, DIFF and DEA indicators are running below zero, indicating that the short power is dominant. It is expected that future plastic 1909 contract will continue the downward trend.

In May, the price of magnesium ingot basically ran smoothly and fluctuated slightly.

According to data from business associations, the average market price of magnesium ingots on May 15 was 16900 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from 17,725 yuan/ton on May 1, and up 3.05% from the lowest price of 16,400 yuan/ton on January 9, 2019.

Since May, the price of magnesium ingots has fluctuated slightly, and the overall operation is relatively stable. It is reported that, on the one hand, based on the weak market demand, stable supply and demand, stable demand of downstream processing enterprises, a little stock in the early stage, more on-demand purchasing, magnesium prices rising weak; on the other hand, the main production area of magnesium ingot manufacturers inventory is not much, some manufacturers mainly pre-sale sales, spot inventory is not much, some manufacturers directly supply their own downstream factories, spot sales pressure. Not big, the manufacturers have strong willingness to bid.

Today’s cash tax quotation for magnesium ingots (99.9%, non-pickling, simple packaging) from major producing areas is as follows:

Fugu area has 16 650-16 900 yuan/ton of cash remittance with tax; Taiyuan area has 16 700-16 800 yuan/ton of cash remittance; Wenxi area has 16850-17 000 yuan/ton of cash remittance; Ningxia area has 16 700-16 900 yuan/ton of cash remittance.

Expected market outlook

Recently, the magnesium market has been on the low side, with few inquiries from magnesium enterprises in the main producing areas, mainly pre-shipment orders, and few new orders. Affected by poor downstream demand, some manufacturers have signs of downward shipment. However, based on the influence of raw material ferrosilicon and coal price factors, we will focus on the market to consider the changes of cost factors in the later period. It is expected that domestic magnesium ingot prices will be weak and stable in the short term.

Terminal demand has not improved, polyester enterprises may take the initiative to reduce the start-up rate. In addition, although the port ethylene glycol inventory in eastern China has declined in the past two weeks, the overall inventory is still at a historic high. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to continue their bearish trend.

Restricted by its own fundamentals, the price of ethylene glycol futures has shown a downward trend of oscillation since its listing on December 10 last year.

Maintaining high plant start-up rate

This year, the start-up rate of domestic ethylene glycol plant has remained relatively high. Although the Spring Festival holidays occurred during this period, it did not have much impact on the start-up of ethylene glycol plant. At the end of April, the ethylene glycol plant was centrally overhauled, and mainly coal-based plants. As of April 26, the weekly start-up rate of ethylene glycol plant was 81.59%, which was 0.97 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and 5.59 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. As of April 30, the weekly start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant was 55.01%, which was 5.35 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, with a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points.

Polyester market “peak season is not prosperous”

After the downstream construction resumed at the end of February this year, the start-up rate of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at a high level. In April, the average starting rate of polyester chip cycle was 89.06%, which was 1.98 percentage points higher than that in March; the average starting rate of polyester staple fiber cycle was 83.42%, which was 3.13 percentage points lower than that in March; and the average starting rate of polyester filament cycle was 83.4%, which was 0.9 percentage points higher than that in March.

However, a high start-up rate does not mean an increase in demand. Although the current polyester market is in the traditional peak season from a time point of view, the trading situation has not significantly warmed up. In April, the average weekly production and marketing rate of polyester chips was 79.88%, up 10.63 percentage points from March; the average weekly production and marketing rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from March; the daily production and marketing rate of polyester filament was 110.91%, the lowest was 72.27%, down 7.09 percentage points and 1.73 percentage points from March, respectively.

Active start-up, but no significant improvement in terminal demand, resulting in a high level of inventory of various varieties in the polyester market. In April, the average inventory of polyester chips was 7 days, an increase of 0.5 days compared with March; the average inventory of polyester staple fiber was 6.9 days, a decrease of 1.1 days compared with March; the average inventory of POY, FDY and DTY of polyester filament was 13.7 days, 13.3 days and 19.8 days, respectively, an increase of 0.82 days, 0.55 days and 1.05 days compared with March.

Port Inventory Keeping New High

Since the beginning of the year, the ethylene glycol inventory of ports in East China has risen rapidly. On February 11, after the Spring Festival holiday, it exceeded 1 million tons, reaching 1.02 million tons, surpassing last year’s inventory peak. After that, inventory continued to accumulate and reached a peak of 1282,000 tons on April 11, an increase of 497,000 tons over the beginning of the year. As of May 5, the inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China was 1.177 million tons, still at the highest level in recent two years.

Ethylene glycol inventory has been at a high level since this year. Historically, inventory in East China exceeded 1.1 million tons from February to March 2014, with a peak of only 1.76 million tons. Persistent high inventory leads to pressure on the futures price of ethylene glycol, which is also one of the important reasons for the weak operation of the futures price of ethylene glycol in recent years.

In summary, although the polyester market is in the traditional peak season, the terminal demand has not improved. Later, polyester enterprises may take the initiative to reduce the start-up rate to cope with the pressure of rising inventory. Under the negative pressure, the price of ethylene glycol in the future is difficult to get rid of the disadvantaged pattern.