1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agencies, as of March 9, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12075 yuan / ton, down 7.29% month on month and 21.08% year on year. The overall market fell significantly.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Poly MDI many traders reduce the factory price. Affected by the drop in international crude oil prices, the general mood of the industry is pessimistic. However, at the beginning of this week, Cisco’s guidance price was stable, no shipment was required, and its market stabilizing attitude was obvious, and traders’ quotations were also more stable. Some agents, considering the settlement price at the end of this month, cautiously quoted prices, and no longer continued to smash offers. However, the atmosphere of inquiry continued to be quiet and there was little negotiation.

In terms of market, South China aggregate MDI market is in a weak shock. Kostrong’s guiding price is stable and the attitude of stabilizing the market is stable. At present, the quotation of traders is more stable, and the downstream demand side has not changed significantly, so we will continue to wait and see the market change. The price of aggregate MDI market in East China is weak and volatile. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price of covestro was stable, the quotation of traders was more stable, and the downstream inquiry continued to be rare, so we continued to wait and see the market trends. The price of aggregate MDI in North China fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the news was light. Kostrong’s guidance price was stable this week. It didn’t require shipment. Its attitude was stable. At present, there is no new change in downstream demand. Downstream operators are cautious to wait and see with goods, and traders’ quotations are somewhat extreme and conservative.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene and crude oil plummeted, while spot buying of pure benzene in East China fell to 4500 yuan / ton. However, due to the low inventory of Shandong Delian, part of the offer was firm at 4900-5100 yuan / ton. But inquiry is rare, the mentality of the business is poor, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

Aniline: aniline Market is mainly weak and stable, it is reported that some factories secretly reduce the shipment. Two sets of 100000 ton aniline plants in Jinling were restarted, and the supply of aniline is expected to increase in the current load lifting. In terms of price, the mainstream price of Shandong aniline is 6700 yuan / ton spot exchange and 6840 yuan / ton acceptance. For East China market, 6800-7000 yuan / ton will be accepted.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: Business Club aggregation MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregation MDI market will continue to be weak, and pay attention to the manufacturer’s dynamic and downstream demand changes at any time.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price fell sharply, offering 43520 yuan / ton, down 2.68% from the previous day, down 12.36% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Spot copper prices fell sharply today. As oil prices plummeted and public health events hit market risk sentiment, China’s demand recovery was slow, metal inventories hit new highs and copper prices fell. According to the General Administration of customs, China’s foreign trade import and export from January to February 2020 decreased by 9.6% year on year. Copper inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 345000 tons, with a cumulative increase of 158.05% in the last seven weeks. Inventory exceeded expectations. However, there is a strong wait-and-see willingness in the downstream, and the overall trading performance is still average.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, the copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business society believe that: inventory accumulation, low consumption, high pressure on copper price, and weak in the short term.

According to today’s oil price news, the United States became a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products last month. In the last week of February, the average net import of crude oil and petroleum products was 907000 barrels / day. According to the weekly net import data of crude oil and petroleum products of the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA), this is the lowest “import” level in the EIA data since 1973.

According to EIA data, the United States has been a net exporter of crude oil and oil products every week since the beginning of 2020, in January and February.

The EIA said at the end of last year that the US exported more crude oil and oil products than it imported in September 2019, the first time the US has become a net exporter of oil since monthly records began in 1973.

The EIA said in December 2019 that due to the surge in US crude oil production and the lifting of export restrictions in 2015, as well as the continued growth in oil product production and exports, the US crude oil and oil product exports in September 2019 were 89000 barrels / day higher than imports.

In its energy outlook 2020, released in January this year, the EIA said that the United States will become a net exporter of oil and oil products this year due to continued growth in production and weak domestic demand.

Although it has the status of “net exporter of oil”, the United States is still a net importer of crude oil, and its crude oil import is still higher than its export.

According to the latest monthly data, the EIA said last month that in November 2019, US crude oil imports were 5.8 million barrels / day and exports were 3 million barrels / day.

In addition, the EIA points out that although the United States as a whole is a net exporter of oil at present, most other regions are still net importers of oil except the Gulf Coast region of the United States.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market this week fell in a narrow range. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2002 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1980 yuan / ton, down 1.12% in the week, 10.20% on month, 22.29% on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic methanol market trend is narrow and low. Some enterprises have adjusted prices for many times, but the reduction is not large. Due to the current low freight, the consumer market has little resistance to the market. Affected by the decline of futures prices, the port market fluctuates and falls, and the shortage of storage capacity is unfavorable to the port trend. At present, the resumption of traditional downstream products is slow, and the start-up of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and other products is lower than before the Spring Festival, so it will take time for the market to recover slowly.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in light and stable operation. Only a few of the enterprises resumed the construction, and the overall construction was at a low level. The upstream methanol market was in a narrow range. Some formaldehyde enterprises purchased a small amount at a low level. The cost of the formaldehyde market has no impact. The downstream market is still at a low level. The overall recovery of the demand side is slow, and the transaction is light.

Acetic acid: after the previous period of continuous decline, the profit of acetic acid itself is small, and the short-term downstream substantial demand continues to be weak. It is expected that there will be signs of load increase after the start of acetic acid ester industry in the middle of the month. PTA industry starts to be stable in the short term, the short-term negative situation of acetic acid market is difficult to ease, and the passive weak situation continues, but the expected decline is narrow.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether changed from weak to strong, and the main price showed signs of rising, but prices in some regions were adjusted flexibly. With the gradual return to work of the enterprise, the overall supply increases, while it is difficult to follow up the terminal demand, and the market supply is unbalanced, resulting in weak prices.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the traditional downstream gradually recovers; the domestic freight price is low, which is favorable for the price of the production area; the northwest MTO enterprise has the intention to store methanol which is currently lower than the cost price. On the negative side, the pace of factory resumption is significantly faster than that of downstream, and there is still pressure on market supply and demand; the pace of domestic infrastructure recovery is slow, and terminal demand is still weak. At present, the resumption of traditional downstream products is slow, and the commencement of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and other products are lower than before the Spring Festival, so there is limited space for methanol to rise. Based on the shutdown of most enterprises last week, the methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market still has an inertial rise, and later needs to pay attention to the change of demand.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2380 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, up 15.16% year on year. On February 20, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 125.26, unchanged from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 61.90% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices is general. Affected by the epidemic situation, some ammonium nitrate enterprises have not yet started construction. The on-site supply is stable, and the price of manufacturers is mainly stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, but the recent transportation is subject to certain restrictions, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are limited to start work, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable. The weekend price was 1500 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend was stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1550 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1780 yuan / ton. In the near future, the parking rate of domestic maintenance equipment is relatively high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is less, the situation of goods in the field is general, the price trend of nitric acid market is stable, the stable price of nitric acid is the good influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high.

The overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is normal, the unit operating rate of the enterprise is slightly higher, and the market price of liquid ammonia remains high. The main problems in Shanxi are peak load shifting, limited production and poor transportation. The transportation of liquid ammonia has also entered a bottleneck period. The long-distance and high-speed transportation has been restricted, with multiple factors superimposed, and the price of liquid ammonia has remained high this week. In addition, in the near future, part of the downstream continued to restart, the demand for liquid ammonia increased, and the price of liquid ammonia remained high. The overall price of liquid ammonia Market in the upper reaches fluctuated higher, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the raw material market price rises slightly, which has certain cost support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone is weak. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week is 7350 yuan / ton, and the price of cyclohexanone at the end of the week is 7316 yuan / ton, down 0.45% in the week. The price is 0.90% lower than that of the same period last month and 34.08% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the cyclohexanone market is weak, the upstream and downstream markets are down, the narrow range of cyclohexanone is down, the mainstream factory is 7200-7300 yuan / ton, cash ex factory. Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 5150 yuan / ton, with insufficient cost support. Sinopec’s listing of caprolactam was reduced by 450 yuan / ton to 10800 yuan / ton. The load of caprolactam was low and the basic supporting cyclohexanone device was provided. The enthusiasm for market procurement was not good, the starting load of solvent plant was low, and the market delivery was light. In terms of price, 7400-7500 yuan / ton of peripheral cash in Shandong market, 7600-7800 yuan / ton in East China market, 7900-8000 yuan / ton in South China market.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: within the week, pure benzene rebounded after falling. Crude oil and pure benzene US gold market fell sharply, driving the focus of Shandong market to 4900 yuan / ton. The downstream factories began to bargain hunting, the pure benzene inventory of the refining plant was released, the pressure was reduced, and the price rebounded to 4950-5000 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: the overall activity of the adipic acid market is not high this week, among which the latest hanging settlement is only slightly lower than that of last month, and it is still at a high level. The factory’s attitude to support the market is still the main constraint at present. The middle and lower reaches are still relatively resistant to high prices, the willingness to make up positions is not high, the direct supply of contracts is steadily promoted, the enthusiasm of the spot market is not high, and the lower reaches just need to make up positions, and the middlemen have won Under the interest will, the offer is obviously cautious, and a small amount of negotiation goes with the market.

Adipic acid: this week, adipic acid is in a chaotic downward trend. It is worth noting that most industries and enterprises in the downstream have been recovering in succession, and the logistics and transportation situation has basically improved. However, the overall load in the downstream is not high, the rigid demand for raw materials is small, and the purchase is cautious, and the production and sales are gradually weakening. And the weak raw material end, peripheral bad news more obvious hit market confidence

3、 Future forecast

From the cost point of view, pure benzene is in weak operation, with insufficient cost support, and there is a small profit margin for cyclohexanone; on the demand side, due to the low demand of the terminal market, the downstream caprolactam maintains low load operation, and the demand for solvent is relatively small. Shenyuan has newly added a supporting 250000 ton cyclohexanone unit, and it is expected that the downstream demand for cyclohexanone procurement is still low, but the recent shipment of cyclohexanone is not smooth, and it is available from stock Should be abundant, business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the short-term market weakness of cyclohexanone finishing.

On March 3, the PX commodity index was 49.60, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.56% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 8.89% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable About 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, but the recent crude oil price trend is rising, and the market price of p-xylene is affected by the price stability. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 3, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 12 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 690-692 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 710-712 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. The rising price of external market has a certain positive impact on the domestic market price of PDT, and the market price trend of PX is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market rose in the US, with major contracts at 47.18 yuan / barrel, or 43 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract was $51.86/barrel, down $0.04. Leonid fedun, vice president of Lukoil, Russia’s second largest oil producer, said that OPEC’s proposal to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day was enough to balance the market and push the oil price back to $60 per barrel. The rise of crude oil price is good for domestic chemicals price, while the domestic p-xylene price trend is stable for the time being.

In terms of downstream PTA, the recent price rose slightly to the level of 4250-4350 yuan / ton. The market expected OPEC production reduction and domestic stimulus policy, and crude oil rebounded, boosting chemicals. In terms of PTA supply, PTA plant restart and load reduction coexist, and the market supply increment is limited. At present, the overall operating rate is 81.54%. Due to the lack of downstream demand follow-up, the inventory continues to accumulate. In terms of demand, due to the impact of public health events, the downstream polyester and terminal textile industry resume slowly. The overall operating rate of polyester is at a low level of 63.32%, and the operating rate of terminal textile industry rises to 38%. The overall demand is strong Degree is still weak, PTA market price range shocks, p-xylene price trend temporarily stable.

Recently, the trend of crude oil price is rising, which has a certain positive support for the market of p-xylene, but the downstream demand of the terminal is not significantly improved, and the business analysts believe that PX market price may remain stable.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA spot market rebounded slightly on March 4, with an average price of 4268 yuan / ton, up 0.42% compared with the previous trading day, down 35.5% year on year. Main futures were adjusted to close at 4368, up 10% or 0.23% from the previous trading day.

Enterprise name capacity (10000 tons / year) recent device changes

Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. now has a load of 80%, and the device will be shut down for maintenance on December 29, 2019.

At present, Ningbo Taihua 120 is in full load production, and the device was put into operation with 70% load on February 27.

Sinopec Shanghai 40 to 60%

Tianjin Petrochemical 34 to 70%

Luoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced to 50% in May

On February 15, 2015, the load of new 2.5 million ton unit of Hengli Petrochemical was increased to 90%

Fuhaichuang 450 load increased to 80% on February 15

Jiangyin Hanbang 220, February 14, plant shutdown

In terms of supply, PTA plant restart and load reduction coexist. Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. normally discharges the 1 million ton / year PTA plant after restart on March 3. It is necessary to pay attention to whether Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million ton / year PTA plant is maintained as planned. At present, the domestic operating rate is around 81%, and the overall operating rate is still high. Since February, the accumulated storage pressure has continued. Up to now, PTA social circulation inventory has exceeded 2 million tons, which is still in a situation of supply exceeding demand.

However, in the near future, the price of crude oil has been rising, and the cost side has been boosted to a certain extent. At the same time, the comprehensive load of downstream polyester plant is around 66%. With the introduction of resumption policies and government support policies, the start-up has shown a slow upward trend, and the demand side has seen a positive trend. On March 4, the price of polyester filament mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was temporarily stable, with individual increase of 50 yuan / ton, of which the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) was 6600-6750 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that with the gradual recovery of market demand, supply and demand will improve in the later period, and PTA will continue to rebound due to the improvement of cost and demand in the short term. However, this year is the big year for PTA production capacity. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be as high as 30%. In the context of production capacity delivery cycle, PTA is highly limited, and the trend will still be weak in the future.

1、 Price trend

In February, the domestic dimethyl ether Market showed a continuous downward trend. The average price of the domestic dimethyl ether Market at the beginning of the month was 3340 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 3003.33 yuan / ton, with a drop of 10.08% in the month, and the price was 4.76% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of dimethyl ether fell in February, and the atmosphere of market transaction was light. As of February 28, no quotation has been made for the parking of DME devices such as Hebei Yutai, Henan Lankao Huitong Chemical Co., Ltd., Shanxi Lanhua Technology Co., Ltd. and Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan Co., Ltd.; no quotation has been made for the failure of new DME devices in Henan Yima. The ex factory price of dimethyl ether of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 2900 yuan / ton, that of Henan Shengxin Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is 2970 yuan / ton, and that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan / ton.

In February, the overall operating rate of DME market was about 12%. Although the operating rate was relatively low, the market was still in a situation of oversupply. This month, the trend of dimethyl ether continued to be weak, mainly falling. At the beginning of the month, affected by the public events, the Spring Festival holiday was extended, the transportation in all cities was closed, the downstream was shut down, the terminal demand was greatly reduced, and the market transaction atmosphere was light. At this time, the civil gas market is falling, which affects the market mentality. The operators are mainly short of the future market and wait and see. In June, the civil gas market rebounded under the boost of crude oil, which helped dimethyl ether to stop falling and stabilize. However, due to the large inventory pressure of most enterprises, it did not drive the market up. At the end of the month, with the sharp diving of international crude oil, the civil gas market once again fell into a deadlock, mainly downward. The price difference between gas and ether gradually decreased, and the market of dimethyl ether was under pressure again, and the factory price fell below 3000 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are three kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in February 2020, among which one is more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top three commodities are petroleum coke (26.38%), dynamic coal (2.09%) and coking coal (0.79%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 7 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 43.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are liquefied gas (- 15.59%), MTBE (- 15.56%), dimethyl ether (- 10.08%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 3.68%.

3、 Future forecast

In February, under the influence of public events, there were many negative factors in the market of dimethyl ether, and the price kept falling, reaching the bottom continuously. At present, the decline of civil gas is dominant, the trend of cost methanol is weak, and the market of dimethyl ether is still in a relatively weak position. At the end of the month, Henan xinlianxin and other manufacturers implemented the minimum guarantee policy to protect the market price. In a word, the market of DME is easy to fall and hard to rise in the short term. In March, the downstream construction resumed slowly, the terminal demand was expected to increase, the DME inventory was released, or the weak situation could be changed.

Recently, the price of rare earth in China has continued to rise. The price of dysprosium oxide has increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1855000 yuan / ton, and the price of terbium oxide has increased by 50000 yuan / ton to 4275000 yuan / ton. The price trend of some rare earth products in China is as follows:

In recent years, the market price of heavy rare earth in China has continued to rise. As of the 3rd day, the price of dysprosium oxide is 1.855 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium metal is 2.325 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.81 million yuan / ton; the price of Terbium oxide is 4.275 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium metal is 5.25 million yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth in China has continued to rise, and some prices in light rare earth market have fallen slightly.

On March 2, the acrylic commodity index was 35.94, unchanged from yesterday, 64.06% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 46.28% higher than the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the price of rare earth in the rare earth market has risen sharply. In recent years, Myanmar has unilaterally banned the export of rare earth, which has led to a sharp decline in the import volume of domestic heavy rare earth. In addition, some rare earth enterprises in the South have not fully resumed their work, the supply of domestic heavy rare earth has decreased, the contradiction between the supply and demand of domestic heavy rare earth is sharp, and the market price of heavy rare earth has risen sharply. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet in the near future is general. In the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2020, the amount of light rare earth has increased compared with that in 2019. The market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has declined slightly. The on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth in the near future is general, and the market price has fallen slightly. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. In recent years, transportation has been limited to some extent, and the price trend of some rare earth products remains stable.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection inspection will not be reduced, coupled with the domestic heavy rare earth import is blocked, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the price of light rare earth will maintain a low level.