1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, this week’s Cobalt market fell in shock, breaking the stable trend of the cobalt market since April, and the cobalt price fell in shock. As of April 24, the price of cobalt was 239333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.10% from the average price of 247000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

2、 Market situation

Demand overview

The demand market for cobalt lithium battery is mainly divided into mobile phone consumption and new energy vehicle demand. In terms of the demand for mobile phones, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have basically resumed operation, but the operation rate is not ideal. Affected by the epidemic, the import and export of countries around the world are limited. Most enterprises in the consumer market and power market have stopped production, which greatly reduces the demand for mobile phones and the demand for lithium batteries. In April, export orders of some battery factories will drop sharply, production of battery factories will be reduced, and their demand for cobalt materials will be relatively reduced.

In terms of new energy vehicle market, only some battery factories in China will export to foreign vehicle enterprises, while other power battery factories are mainly in domestic market. However, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the domestic market was freezing, and the demand for cobalt fell to a low level. The demand of cobalt market is decreasing, which is bad for cobalt market.

Cobalt Market Stock

Inventory date item inventory unit

891.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-27

2020-4-24 cobalt 894.75 tons

765.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-23

769 tons of cobalt 2020-4-22

2020-4-21 cobalt 772.25 tons

777.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-20

It can be seen from the table that the stock volume of cobalt market this week rose sharply, and a large amount of cobalt stock entered the market. The supply of cobalt market increased greatly, the price of cobalt was negative, and the downward pressure of cobalt market increased.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business club, believes that the demand for cobalt market this week continues to be sluggish, but in terms of supply, a large number of cobalt warehouses are deposited in the market, the supply of cobalt market is increasing, the demand is sluggish, and the bad situation of cobalt market is increasing, with Limited good. On the whole, the recent weak cobalt market has not enough power to rise, but due to the low cobalt price, the risk of cobalt price decline is low. Cobalt market is expected to remain stable.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, on April 27, the spot copper price was 42968.33 yuan / ton, up 2% from the previous day, down 12.03% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main contract opened high to 42880 yuan, and fell to 42490 yuan in the afternoon, up 1.63%.

2、 Market analysis

On April 26, Yunnan provincial government conducted commercial storage of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, germanium, indium and other key non-ferrous metal products in the province, with a total storage capacity of about 800000 tons and a storage period of one year. The news of storage and collection obviously led to the general rise of the metal market, and copper prices continued to rebound. Rio Tinto, one of the world’s major mining enterprises, and Antofagasta, a Chilean miner, lowered their copper production targets, and MMG Peru copper mine encountered force majeure. Freeport lowered its copper production forecast by 11% in 2020. The supply of ore end is still shrinking, and the supply of scrap copper is also insufficient. On the demand side, Europe and the United States plan to restart economic activities, but global economic growth is still facing difficulties, and there are still concerns about the outlook for metal demand, which may inhibit copper prices.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business cooperation believe that: the state’s collection of reserves has boosted copper prices, the interference of copper supply has supported copper prices, domestic demand has rebounded, but exports have been restrained, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has fallen. As of April 26, the price of phthalic anhydride in ortho phthalic method was 4862.5 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has gradually declined, the demand of plasticizer industry is general, and the market of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly.

In recent years, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has fallen, the market demand of phthalic anhydride is poor, the market price of phthalic anhydride is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen slightly. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the market price of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride drops slightly. As of the 26th, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China fell, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring France’s source of goods was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and that for naphthalene’s source of goods was 4200-4500 yuan / ton; in North China, the main flow of quotation for phthalic anhydride market was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride market was still there, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was generally low.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 4200 yuan / ton. The price of imported phthalic anhydride in the port area is stable and stable temporarily. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port area is general and the price of phthalic acid in the external market is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Affected by the fluctuation of the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material, the price of phthalic anhydride market has slightly dropped.

The price of phthalic anhydride and octanol, the raw material of downstream dopdopdopdopdopdop, fell. Influenced by the expectation of crude oil production reduction, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol rose sharply last week, but the subsequent production reduction agreement was not as expected, and the price rise lost its support. The recovery of downstream demand was limited, and the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol fell. This week, the cost of DOP fell, the downward pressure of DOP increased, and the market price of DOP was bearish. The market price of DOP was about 6300-6600 yuan / ton. The price of upstream DOP was about 6300 The trend of ox price is stable temporarily, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be slightly lower in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic dry process aluminum fluoride market price fell this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 9166 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 9066 yuan / ton, down 1.09% compared with last week’s price.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride fell: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. was 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9200 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid continued to decline. In the near future, the supply situation of manufacturers in the field was poor, the operation of domestic manufacturers’ devices was stable, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was sufficient, the downstream demand was low, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continued to decline. In the near future, the price of raw material fluorite fell, the price of hydrofluoric acid market was affected to some extent, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in China fell, as of the weekend The main flow of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. This week, the price of most manufacturers of aluminum fluoride remained stable, Zhengzhou Zerun slightly reduced, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell steadily.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business and chemical branch think: at present, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a downward trend, and the shortage of aluminum fluoride demand will not end in a short time, and the market price of aluminum fluoride will continue to fall next week.

According to the data of business agency, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade purified water formic acid is 2300 yuan / ton this week. The formic acid market is relatively stable as a whole this week, and the market price adjustment is not big.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a relatively stable trend. The price remained at a high level compared with the same period last year. In terms of devices: the devices of manufacturers and distributors operate normally, the delivery is acceptable, the supply of formic acid in the market this week is acceptable, and the enterprises are all in stock. In terms of price: this week, the company’s quotation is basically around 2300 yuan / ton, the main factory price of industrial purified water formic acid is about 1850-2900 yuan / ton, and the main dealers’ quotation is 2492 yuan / ton. As of Friday (March 24), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2150 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1850 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2000 yuan / ton; 85% formic acid barrel price, Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. quoted 2900 yuan / ton; Jintan local supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. quoted 2100 yuan / ton; Jinan senhong New Trade Co., Ltd. quoted 2410 yuan / ton; Jinan Huijin Sichuan Trading Co., Ltd. offers 3200 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the domestic liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products is dominated by stable operation, some manufacturers are fine-tuning, the urea market is declining downward, the overall situation of methanol is dominated by rising, and the domestic caustic soda market is declining slightly, and the overall trend is stable. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the leather and pesticide industries of the downstream products are relatively stable with general sales.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of business association, the overall price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is relatively stable, and the current price is still high compared with the same period last year. Recently, the dealer inventory is acceptable, the downstream demand is relatively cold, and the enterprise’s shipment is not much. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be consolidated in the short term.

Commodity index: on April 25, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in April 2020, the production of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers was normal, but the demand continued to be low, some enterprises still mainly consumed inventory, and some manufacturers lowered their prices. April 26th week quote: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content 10%-12%, including tax, price 350-400 yuan / ton; solid content, 20-21% quoted price 860 yuan / ton, reduction of 30 yuan / ton; content 24%, price 1220 yuan / ton, reduction 20 yuan / ton; solid content, 28% or more, price 1550 yuan / ton; spray content of 30% yuan, 1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level, content exceeding 28% 28% yuan / ton, food price quoted About 800 yuan / ton.

Upstream: according to the data of business agency, on April 26, the main factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China was temporarily stable: Dezhou Maihua’s quotation was 160 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei’s quotation was 200 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Shanxi Wenshui’s quotation was 230 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua’s quotation was 250 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Taiyuan kunshengda’s quotation was 420 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was based on the agreement Business shall prevail. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal.

Downstream: the current water treatment market demand is still sluggish, and enterprises generally reflect that this year’s goods are hard to sell, engineering negotiation is difficult, and the cycle is long.

Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost was normal. In April, the production was normal, some enterprises still had high inventory, poor demand and difficult delivery.

Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the current weak demand determines the current market trend, high inventory increases the market pressure, and the future market of polyaluminium chloride still needs time to recover.

On April 22, the rare earth index was 330, unchanged from yesterday, down 67.00% from 1000 (2011-12-06), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.77% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 353500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 635000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide rose by 500 yuan / ton to 261500 yuan / ton, 1795000 yuan / ton, 305000 yuan / ton and 279000 yuan / ton respectively. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 330500 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1785000 yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the price trend of rare earth is mainly stable, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising slightly, the domestic heavy rare earth market supply is normal, Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers start work normally, the domestic supply is normal, and the domestic heavy rare earth price trend is temporarily stable. In the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is general, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly rising slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is normal in the near future, and some market prices are mainly stable. In addition, recent foreign health events have a great impact on the export volume of rare earth products, and the price trend of rare earth market is stable. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand was normal, and some rare earth prices rose slightly.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. National policies are conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of heavy rare earth market has increased, and the market price trend is normal.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market is normal in the near future, and the downstream demand is general. In addition, the downstream export market is poor, and the rare earth industry is not well supported, and the price trend of rare earth market is expected to be stable in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA66 in China continued to weaken in mid April, and the prices were mostly reduced. As of April 23, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 20350.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.45% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

Analysis of influencing factors:

On the upstream side of PA66, the domestic adipic acid market has not changed much and the market performance is weak. Compared with last week’s market, the market has not improved. Some dealers’ quotations have kept rising or falling within 100 yuan. Most manufacturers are still bullish on the aftermarket and light on inventory operation. In terms of supply and demand, at present, the manufacturer still maintains a high rate of start-up. Although dealers have generally resumed shipment, they still haven’t reached the normal level of shipment, resulting in the gradual increase of inventory pressure of the manufacturer. In terms of cost, although pure benzene has rebounded significantly from the beginning of April to now, it has not brought fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the delay of cost transfer, on the other hand, the early stage of pure benzene fell sharply, and the strength of adipic acid falling was limited, so there is still profit space for adipic acid without rebounding at present;

The upstream adipic acid generally supports the PA66 cost side. In mid April, the market price of PA66 continued to weaken and the market side was relatively negative. In terms of supply, the spot performance of PA66 is sufficient, and the starting load of downstream plants is low. Moreover, plastic products are in the off-season of consumption, which is difficult to boost the market. In the background of the market, the imbalance between supply and demand has been maintained. The on-site trading is dominated by rigid demand, with few trading information and no large-scale stock.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in mid April, the domestic PA66 market continued a weak correction. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable at a low level, which has poor support for PA66 cost side. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be improved. The replenishment operation is rigid and the demand is very limited. The market atmosphere is oversupplied, and the industry has insufficient confidence in the future market. It is expected that PA66 market will not improve in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone fell in a weak way. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of April 23, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 5480 yuan / ton, 13.02% lower than that of the same period last month, 46.97% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the market of cyclohexanone fell in a weak way, crude oil and pure benzene fell, bad news was released, the cost side was lack of support, the market was pessimistic, the demand side had not improved significantly, the market was cautious and the transaction atmosphere was general. The market price of cyclohexanone in East China is 5600-5800 yuan / ton in cash, and the actual order is mainly negotiated.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: East China’s pure benzene dropped slightly to 2800-2900 yuan / ton, while Shandong’s pure benzene center of gravity weakened to 3500-3600 yuan / ton. Pure benzene closed weaker, but crude oil rebounded overnight, which is expected to support the market mentality to some extent. East China’s negotiation reference is around 2900 yuan / ton, and Shandong’s is about 3400 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: caprolactam is still dominant. In terms of supply and demand, Shijiazhuang refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is about to produce caprolactam, and the downstream polymerization plant has enough orders to start early delivery. However, due to the drop of chip price, it is difficult for manufacturers to accept high price raw materials, and the on-site operators have pessimistic expectations for the later market.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market is weak. At present, the raw material of pure benzene is still relatively high, the cost of adipic acid is acceptable, and the mood of wait-and-see spread in the field. Crude oil continued to fluctuate at a low level, which was bad for downstream purchase intention and cautious position filling. Near the end of the month, the factory has no clear attitude guidance, and the supply of goods for traders is limited. However, driven by the bearish outlook on the future market, the quotation is lowered, and the mentality of shipment still exists.

3、 Future forecast

The market lacks the support of good news, and under the influence of multiple negative circles, the business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the short-term market of cyclohexanone will continue to operate in a weak way.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, as of April 21, based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 6166 yuan / ton, down by 1.07% compared with the previous day (April 20, the market reference average price is 6233 yuan / ton), down by 70 yuan / ton, and up by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month (April 1, the market reference average price is 6066 yuan / ton), Up 1.65%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: from April to now, the trend curve of domestic butanone market can be described as “lying s” curve. At the beginning of the month, the butanone market continued to decline in March. There were few orders in the market, the inquiry atmosphere was poor, the factory could not bear the inventory pressure, and the price continued to decline. On March 3, the market reference price dropped to around 5900 yuan / ton, which is the lowest price in the current month. The weak market position has been running for nearly a week until September 9. On October 10, there was a turnaround in the domestic butanone market, and the market price slightly increased. On November 11, according to the data monitoring, the market reference average price of butanone was around 6066 yuan / ton, which was about 150 yuan / ton higher than the previous days. Next, the market rose for two days in a row. To the 15th, the reference average price of butanone market was 6234 yuan. Tons, which is the highest price at present. Compared with the previous 11 days, the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton, and the market kept stable and high until the 20th. Up to the 21st, the market has been weak. At present, the butanone market in North China has fallen, with the reference to the factory price of 6100 yuan / ton; the butanone market in South China has been lowered, with the reference to the factory price of 6100-6200 yuan / ton; the butanone market in East China has fallen, with the reference to the factory price of 6100 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the first ten days of April, as soon as the civil liquefied gas market changed from March to March, the overall market rose significantly. On the 15th, the market reference average price was around 3350 yuan / ton, up nearly 700 yuan / ton, or 25.31% compared with the beginning of the month (2673 yuan / ton on April 1). From 17R to 20, the civil liquefied gas market in Shandong, East China and North China began to reduce the price one after another. As of the 21st day, the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in Shandong Province is about 2900-3150 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in North China is about 2850-3000 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in East China is about 2820 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business club, affected by the decline of crude oil again, it is expected that in recent days, the market price of butanone may still fall, but the decline is limited, and the overall weak operation is the main factor.