1、 Price trend

Aniline fell at the beginning of this month, rebounded in the middle of this month, and then fell again in the last ten days, according to the data of the bulk list of business associations. On the first day, the price of aniline was 5633.33 yuan / ton, which began to decline, reaching 5033.33 yuan / ton on the ninth day; on the 13th, it began to rebound, reaching 5533.33 yuan / ton on the 15th day; on the 15th-22nd, it was stable operation, and on the 23rd, it began to step down, and on the 30th, it was 4800 yuan / ton. On April 1, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 5700-5750 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 5600-5720 yuan / ton; on April 30, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 4800-5020 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 4800-4890 yuan / ton. The overall trend of this month is downward, down 14.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Raw materials: at the beginning of the month, pure benzene continued to decline in the previous month. After the Qingming Festival, it started the way of bottoming and rebounding. In late April, it returned to the decline. On April 1, the price of pure benzene was 2550-2900 yuan / ton (average price: 2660 yuan / ton). On April 30, the price of pure benzene was 2700-3500 yuan / ton (average price: 3020 yuan / ton), 360 yuan / ton higher than that on April 1, with a monthly increase of 13.53%. This month, pure benzene port inventory continued to accumulate, but the increase decreased. After this month’s Qingming Festival holiday, the pure benzene market was affected by crude oil and external market, bottom reading rebounded, and downstream purchasing was positive, with a rebound of more than 30%. The spot supply in Shandong is tight, and the price increase is more obvious. After two weeks of hoarding, the downstream procurement speed slowed down significantly. In the late ten days, crude oil plummeted and pure benzene began to decline.

Nitric acid: the nitric acid market is limited in April, and the price ladder is lower. On April 1, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1600 yuan / ton, and on April 30, the price was 1466.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 8.33%.

2. Products: in early April, the domestic market recovered slowly, but the impact of foreign public health events intensified, the export of aniline downstream enterprises was blocked, the decline was halted, the contradiction between supply and demand expanded, and the price fell. In the middle of the year, the raw material pure benzene rebounded sharply, and the aniline stock kept up with the rising power. The downstream factories entered the market to purchase and stock up, and the aniline enterprise stock pressure was released rapidly. In the last ten days, after more than a week’s stock up, the downstream procurement recovered to be light. In addition, the overhaul of aniline plant was restarted, and the market supply increased, so the price of aniline fell.

3、 Future forecast

1. In terms of raw materials: the production of downstream pure benzene enterprises in the short term is basically stable, the consumption is mainly in the early stage of hoarding, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. Mainly wait for the later crude oil and the trend of the outer market. In addition, market participants are more bearish about the future, and it is expected that the short-term pure benzene market is still weak.

Under the influence of public health events, the export of downstream enterprises of aniline was poor, some enterprises had the expectation of decline, and the demand for aniline was limited. Lack of good raw material surface is expected to remain weak in the short term, weak support for aniline.

Short term weak aniline operation expected

1、 Market Overview

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite market in April fell sharply. The price at the end of the month was 2766.67 yuan / ton, down 12.32% compared with 3155.56 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 2.41% year-on-year. In the near future, fluorite price continued to fall.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in April, the price trend of domestic fluorite fell sharply. With the temperature rising, the operating rate of domestic fluorite plant has increased recently. The mine and flotation plant in the site are gradually resumed, and the supply of fluorite in the site is increasing. Due to the increase of the supply in the site, the price of fluorite is greatly reduced. In addition, the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid is declining. For the purchase on demand of fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the site is changing Poor, fluorite market price trend decline. In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in a low market price. As of the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite on the site fell.

Industry chain: in April, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite fell sharply. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 9660 yuan / ton, and the decline of hydrofluoric acid in April was 11.38%. The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fell sharply, which was a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price of fluorite fell sharply. The market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is poor, and the demand for refrigerant is declining continuously. Foreign special events are serious, the export of refrigerant terminal is not smooth, and it is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. Overall, the demand at home and abroad is lower than expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is reduced, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price is reduced under pressure due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of whether the market has price or not is obvious. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 15000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

Industry: in April, the unit operating rate of fluorite industry increased slightly, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid fell sharply, the spot supply of products in fluorite field was sufficient, and the market price of fluorite fell sharply.

3、 Future forecast

On the whole, the downstream refrigerant industry has a poor market, the supply of fluorite has increased, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst with the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on April 1, the average factory price of light potash in China was 6325.00 yuan / ton, and on April 28, the average factory price of light potash in China was 6325.00 yuan / ton, down 0.20%, with the current price down 7.50% year-on-year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in April, the domestic potassium carbonate declined slightly, the domestic potassium chloride production of upstream raw materials was normal, the supply of goods in the Port Free Trade Zone continued to increase, the international price fell, and the overall trend or low consolidation of potassium chloride market was dominated. There is no supporting effect on the price of potash. This week, the market of potash is weak and downward. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potash market is not warm and hot, the activity is low, the demand side is weak, the actual trading volume of the market is insufficient, and the downstream procurement maintains rigid demand. At the same time, the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is low, and the overall inventory is low. The purchasing market momentum is general. Domestic potash companies Sentiment fell. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate in April is about 6100-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to potash analysts of the business association, the domestic potash market price has continued to decline in the near future, but the range is not large. It is expected that the price of potash will be dominated by consolidation in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

On April 27, the fluorite commodity index was 97.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.55% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 98.07% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite remains low. As of the 28th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2777.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively high, the mine and flotation plant in the field are gradually resumed, the supply of fluorite in the field is sufficient, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream falls in the near future. For the purchase on demand of fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the field is poor, and the price trend of fluorite market remains low 。 In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream terminal purchases on demand, resulting in a slight decline in market price. As of the 28th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and the trend of fluorite price remained low.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite fell. As of the 28th day, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 9710 yuan / ton. The decline of hydrofluoric acid market price has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is normal, the demand for fluorite is normal, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, and the price of fluorite remains low. In recent years, the sales of automobile industry is sluggish, and the trend of the terminal downstream refrigerant market is poor. The demand for refrigerants continues to decline, the domestic supply of R22 is sufficient, the domestic market price trend of R22 falls back, the manufacturer ‘s production unit operating load is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is normal, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers park more, and the demand changes little. In addition, foreign public health affairs The main price of domestic large enterprises is 15000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is weak, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the near future remains low. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may be slightly lower in the short term.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s large list, as of April 28, the average price of lithium hydroxide quoted by enterprises was 57000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, with a half year cycle and a year-on-year drop of 17.79%. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, that of Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 58000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai Chenli new material industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton. The specific price will be discussed in a single way. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is about 55000-59000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market of lithium carbonate ran smoothly on the 28th. On April 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 41900 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday and 3.9% lower than that of April 1. On April 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 46700 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, down 6.22% compared with that of April 1. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 38000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 45500-48000 yuan / ton. At present, the market demand is weak, the trade is flat, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the market of lithium carbonate will be mainly weak and stable.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the market of lithium carbonate in the upper reaches is weak and stable in the near future, with limited support for the cost of lithium hydroxide. At present, the orders of large lithium hydroxide plants are relatively stable, the shipments of small and medium-sized enterprises are relatively general, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of demand information.

Magnesium market trend

On April 28, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was lowered. At present, the main quotation range is 12950-13200 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 12950-13100 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13100-13200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13200-13300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13000-13100 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic market on the 28th was 13083.33 yuan / ton, which was 14166.67 yuan / ton compared with the market price at the beginning of the year (1.1), a decrease of 7.65%.

The price of magnesium ingot continues to move down. At present, the price has reached a low level in nearly 4 years, as shown in the following figure:

The price of magnesium ingot has been stable recently, and fluctuates down slightly. At present, the market turnover has picked up slightly, the early contract delivery is concentrated, and some manufacturers say that there are not many spot goods. Near the May Day holiday, the downstream manufacturers have basically completed the preparation of goods. At present, the purchase rhythm of a small number of batches has not changed significantly.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak, and the rigid demand procurement is the main demand. It is expected that the magnesium market game will intensify in the near future, and the stable operation in the near future will be the main one. 13000 frontline will obtain strong support, and pay attention to the change of the downstream procurement rhythm in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

LNG prices continued to fall in the second half of April. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on April 27 was 2953.33 yuan / ton, 8.47% lower than that on April 16, and 13.14% lower than that of the same period last year. On April 26, the LNG commodity index was 72.79, down 0.74 points from yesterday, 65.17% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 5.72% higher than 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: as of April 27, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2970 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2920 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was about 2850 yuan / ton, Shanxi Qinshui Xinao LNG price was 3050 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Zhongyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd The LNG price of Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 2970 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang Qinghua is 3900 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: LNG market in the second half of the month was not good, and the price continued to fall. Recently, the international oil price has been falling, even negative, which has an impact on the long-term price of LNG import, and there is a risk of further decline in imported gas. The imported sea gas is of high quality and low price, which impacts the domestic LNG market, and it is in the off-season. The downstream demand is general, the inventory of liquid plants is on the high side, and the sales pressure is high. As well as approaching the May Day holiday, dangerous chemical vehicles on the expressway will be restricted. Most manufacturers continue to reduce their prices to seek benefits. The domestic LNG price is subject to multiple pressures and the price drops frequently. At present, most LNG prices in the north are below 3000 yuan, hovering on the cost line, and the profits of liquid plants are shrinking. Today’s decline is suspended, but there is still a risk of falling LNG in the future. Many negative factors such as consumption off-season, intake shock, and sufficient market supply add up, and LNG price may not rise significantly in a short period of time.

News: in March, natural gas production reached 16.9 billion cubic meters, up 11.2% year on year, with an average daily output of 540 million cubic meters. In the first quarter, 48.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, up 9.1% year on year. 6.92 million tons of imported natural gas, down 0.2% year on year. In the first quarter, 24.66 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 1.8% year on year. China imported 4.19 million tons of liquefied natural gas in March, up 4.3% year on year, and 2.73 million tons of natural gas in March, down 5.3% year on year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of Business Club: at present, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving is not high in the off-season, the market digestion capacity is weakened, and restricted by factors such as the impact of intake tone, the domestic LNG market continues to decline, with prices falling continuously and hovering near the cost line. It is expected that the LNG market will be weak in the short term, and the good will be hard to find, mostly dominated by low consolidation, and there is still a falling expectation

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, on April 27, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 10000-10900 yuan / ton, and the reference price of bulk water is around 9300-9800 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in late April, driven by the soaring isopropanol market, the domestic n-propanol market was running at a high level, with tight market inventory and high prices. Nanjing area: Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., a manufacturer of n-propanol, is now in normal operation. The ex factory price of n-propanol purified water has been greatly increased. The reference price is 9800 yuan / ton, which is 1300 yuan / ton higher than that before half a month (reference price of 8500 yuan / ton for ex factory purified water on 14th). Shandong Province: the market of n-propanol in Shandong Province has been volatile for half a month, and the market price can be described as one-day discussion. Within half a month, the highest price of domestic n-propanol market including packaging quotation is 12000 yuan / ton. With the recent decline of the market price of isopropanol, the quotation of some n-propanol dealers has been reduced compared with the previous days, but the overall price is still significantly higher than the beginning of the month. At present, the price of n-propanol in Shandong Province is still rising The main quoted price of barreled goods is around 9900-10500 yuan / ton. Up to 27 days ago, the factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging in fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province was 10500 yuan / ton, which was 1100 yuan / ton higher than that half a month ago (including 9400 yuan / ton of the factory quotation of packaging in 14 days); the factory quotation of jinrihe chemical Co., Ltd. in Jinan was slightly lower than that a few days ago, which was 9500 yuan / ton, but the price was still 1000 yuan / ton higher than that half a month ago; the factory quotation of n-propanol in Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd The reference price of packing is 10000 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton higher than half a month ago. In view of the dealer’s reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are also differences in each region, with single negotiation as the main part.

Industry chain: isopropanol prices have been rising since mid March. In early April, prices continued to soar as export orders were delivered centrally and factories cut production temporarily due to accidents. Near the end of April, the price of isopropanol began to fall. Up to now, the negotiation range of Shandong isopropanol is about 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu isopropanol is about 12300-13000 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 12600-12700 yuan / ton. Influenced by the international situation, the isopropanol export in China will continue for some time. Many factory offers do not report, domestic trade inquiries more, take goods very cautious, few transactions.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the market of n-propanol is expected to stabilize after a slight decline in the short term.

On April 26, the rare earth index was 330, unchanged from yesterday, down 67.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 21.77% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 353500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 635000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide rose by 2000 yuan / ton to 263500 yuan / ton, 1795000 yuan / ton, 305000 yuan / ton and 279000 yuan / ton respectively. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 330500 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1785000 yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the price trend of rare earth is mainly stable, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising slightly, the domestic heavy rare earth market supply is normal, Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers start work normally, the domestic supply is normal, and the domestic heavy rare earth price trend is temporarily stable. In the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is general, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly rising slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is normal in the near future, and some market prices are mainly stable. In addition, recent foreign health events have a great impact on the export volume of rare earth products, and the price trend of rare earth market is stable. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand was normal, and some rare earth prices rose slightly.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. National policies are conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of heavy rare earth market has increased, and the market price trend is normal.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market is normal in the near future, and the downstream demand is general. In addition, the downstream export market is poor, and the rare earth industry is not well supported, and the price trend of rare earth market is expected to be stable in the later period.