According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregated MDI market continued to be in a stalemate. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12175 yuan / ton, which was 1.02% lower than the same period last month and 2.01% lower than that of the same period last year.

This week, the aggregate MDI market stalemate range consolidation, the negotiation price volatility is small. At the beginning of the month, the spot delivery of the factory was slow, the low price was rarely heard, and the operators were cautious in trading. The main factories successively announced the listing prices in July, which were all stable; the weekly guidance price of Koster was stable without assessment; the response of the industry to the news was relatively mild. On July 1, Wanhua Yantai plant began to be overhauled for about 45 days. The overall atmosphere of the distribution trade market is quiet, and the mainstream agents are limited by the cost of manufacturers, and their quotations are mostly stable and cautious in shipping; the middlemen mainly keep shipping.

Raw materials, pure benzene: Shandong pure benzene market continued to decline. After the festival, the local refineries kept prices stable, but the overall inventory was on the high side. With the increase of port inventory in East China, the pressure of pure benzene cash withdrawal price is high, which leads to the strong bearish mentality of downstream and no traders, and they are cautious to watch the market. Local refining delivery is not smooth, the price is down.

Aniline: aniline market fell during the week. From the aspect of raw materials, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was lowered to 3100 yuan / ton, and the average bidding price of Jinling pure benzene was 3050 yuan / ton. The raw material side fell sharply and the aniline cost support weakened.

On the downstream side, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spandex market showed a slight decline trend in June. As of June 30, the average price of spandex 40d specification was 31500 yuan / ton, down 1.25% from the beginning of the month and 3.08% lower than that at the beginning of the month. At the same time, it is also at a low level in recent three years, down 19.44% from June 30, 2017.

There are many low-cost sources of goods, and the trade market is slightly pessimistic. Analysts predict that the domestic aggregate MDI market will be mainly in the short term.

Since mid June, due to the negative impact of cost, the bisphenol a market stopped rising and operated smoothly, and then the market began to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, the average offer of bisphenol a market on June 9 was 12450 yuan / ton, while that on July 6 was 10760 yuan / ton, a cumulative decline of 13.57%. The decline was obvious in July, with a decrease of 7% in just a few trading days. Up to now, the negotiation of bisphenol market in East China is about 10600 yuan / ton, and there are few downstream inquiries. The transaction situation is even worse. The mentality is seriously frustrated, and it is hard to say that it is good in the short term.

From the perspective of raw materials, since the middle of June, the overall cost of phenol and acetone has stopped rising and has turned downward. Especially after two months of sharp rise in acetone, traders are eager to make profits and ship, and their offer has been greatly reduced. So far, the offer of acetone mainstream in East China has decreased by 26%. At present, the East China market negotiation of raw material acetone is below 9000 yuan / T, and other mainstream regions are not impacted by the East China market Breaking down, the negotiation space is 9200-9600 yuan / ton, the market transaction performance is poor, and the enthusiasm of terminal purchase inquiry needs to be improved. According to statistics, since July 6, the volume of acetone in East China is relatively large, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Taiwan. In the short term, acetone will continue to decline in the short term, with talks on acetone at 8800-9000 yuan / ton.

Market trend of acetone in East China in recent month

The main raw material phenol market has been declining since the middle of June. On June 9, the national phenol Market offered yuan / ton, and on July 6, the national phenol Market offered yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 17.51%. As of July 6, the offer of phenol in East China was at 6000 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity in South China fell again to 6050 yuan / ton. The supply of goods around Yanshan was still tight, and the market was weak and stable at 6600-6700 yuan / ton. In Shandong, the price was narrow and low, with an offer of about 6350 yuan / ton. In July, the two mainstream factories in East China were overhauled, and the port inventory was low in terms of historical port inventory. However, it was difficult to change the weak operation situation of the market. In the opening of this week, Yangzhou Shiyou device resumed to restart, the supply pressure increased, the market went down again, the downstream terminal buying was depressed, and the on-site inquiry was rare. Under the situation of sudden increase of supply pressure, many traders gave in At present, the guiding price of domestic petrochemical plants is 6900 yuan / ton, and the market situation is serious. We should pay attention to the price adjustment situation of manufacturers in the near future. In addition, the actual market volume has also attracted much attention. Under the situation of obvious shortage of transactions in the market, the short-term phenol market pressure will not be reduced, and the business community is expected to offer phenol at 5950-6000 yuan / ton.

National market trend of phenol in recent month

The downstream liquid epoxy resin is in a downturn, and the market reference price of liquid epoxy resin is 18000 yuan / ton. The terminal wind power industry develops generally, and the overall operating rate of the enterprise runs smoothly. In the short term, the epoxy resin industry is hard to say good, the market turnover is insufficient, and the trading needs to be improved.

In the view of business associations, on the one hand, subject to the sluggish terminal demand market, the bearish mentality of the cargo holders is serious, and the market focus is constantly frustrated. On the other hand, supported by the favorable cost in the early stage, the current cost has also been seriously frustrated. The bad news under the industrial chain has been filled, and the market mentality has been seriously frustrated. The Business Association expects that the short-term bisphenol a market will continue to decline, and the quotation reference of East China market is 10400-10500 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on July 6, the spot nickel price was 105083.33 yuan / ton, up 0.35% compared with the previous trading day, 7.61% lower than that at the beginning of the year, and 5.88% higher than that at the beginning of the year. Shanghai nickel opened at 106030 yuan, and then the price fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 107100 yuan, up 1.20%. LME3 nickel closed at US $13230, up 1.97%.

2、 Market analysis

According to mining week, S & P global, a rating and research agency, said industrial metals prices have risen since the global blockade of covid-19 was relaxed, the economy reopened, and monetary stimulus from banks and governments. At present, nickel ore prices are still strong, and Philippine supply is not as expected. London Metal Exchange (LME) 2-day lunni inventory was 234264 metric tons, 48 tons lower than the previous trading day. However, lunni’s stocks rose slightly last week, with total weekly stocks up 294 tonnes to 234264 tonnes, up 0.13% for the week. Domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased 431 tons to 29422 tons last week, an increase of 1.49%, to a three and a half month high. Domestic and foreign nickel inventories showed an upward trend, indicating a decline in market demand.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: Although the impact of nickel ore supply supports nickel price, the downstream stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel inventory is high, and nickel price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term.

The domestic market of cyclohexanone is still going down. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 6125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6066 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.95% during the week. The price rose by 0.78% month on month compared with the same period last month and decreased by 22.88% compared with the same period last year.

The cyclohexanone market continued to weaken during the week. During the week, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was lowered by 400 yuan / ton to 3100 yuan / ton. The cost was not supported and cyclohexanone was normally supplied. However, the spot market of caprolactam continued to weaken, and the enthusiasm for outsourcing was also weak. During the week, little information was heard about chemical fiber trading, the factory and market shipment was blocked, and the actual orders continued to decline.

Raw materials, pure benzene: Shandong pure benzene market continued to decline this week. After the festival, the local refineries kept prices stable, but the overall inventory was on the high side. With the increase of port inventory in East China, the pressure of pure benzene cash withdrawal price is high, which leads to the strong bearish mentality of downstream and no traders, and they are cautious to watch the market. Local refining delivery is not smooth, the price is down.

Caprolactam: in the near future, caprolactam fundamentals are negative. On the one hand, due to the unsatisfactory control of foreign epidemic situation, the recovery of foreign trade orders of textile and clothing was not as expected, resulting in overstocking of finished products in various links of the textile industry, upward transmission of demand pressure, production reduction expectation in the industrial chain, and blocked delivery of polymerization and caprolactam.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and focuses on the guidance of factory hanging settlement information. The actual invoice price is rational, which is in line with the psychological expectations of the industry. After the Dragon Boat Festival, due to the influence of high inventory and spot demand, the listing of pure benzene main business was lowered to 3100 yuan / ton twice, which weakened the cost support and was negative for the middle and lower reaches of adipic acid.

In terms of cost, the price of East China will be driven by the bottom copy next week, and the price will have a small upward space. However, the downstream demand has not really increased, and the pressure of port arrival is increasing, so it is difficult to sustain the rise only by traders’ bottom copy. From the supply side, Yangquan Fengxi plant is planned to restart in the near future. Although Jiangsu Haili has plans to restart cyclohexanone, it is uncertain whether there is external sales. All units are in normal operation, and the spot supply is expected to increase. From the demand side, the price of phenol is still higher than that of cyclohexanone, and the preparation of cyclohexanone from phenol still has no advantage. It is expected that there is still demand for cyclohexanone and the demand for terminal market is not yet available The spot pressure of caprolactam may be further increased, and the overall recovery is not optimistic. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business agency predict that the cyclohexanone market will be weak, and pay attention to the external procurement of chemical fiber market.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 3, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6000 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher or 1.69% higher than that on Monday (June 29). On July 3, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 48.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 63.63% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Supply reduction supports stable start of n-butanol in July

In July, the overall high and stable domestic n-butanol market, some areas continue to improve the transaction center. Since Monday, affected by the shutdown of some large factories for maintenance and conversion to octanol, the supply of n-butanol was reduced, the manufacturers’ inventory was low, and the market quotation was generally rising. The main downstream butyl ester factories started to operate stably, and just needed replenishment supported the market demand, and the market trading atmosphere was good. On Tuesday and Wednesday, affected by the upstream propylene market, the cost support increased, and the n-butanol market continued to rise. On Thursday, some early profit margins gradually digested, and prices in North and East China remained stable, and the price of n-butanol in some factories in South China continued to rise by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of n-butanol market is small, and the manufacturers’ offer is firm. As of July 3, the reference price of domestic n-butanol ex factory is at 6000 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that on Monday (June 29), or 1.69%. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was RMB 6000 / T, up 150 yuan / T or 2.56% compared with last weekend (28th). Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory quotation reference 6000 yuan / ton, increased by 250 yuan / ton, or 4.34%, compared with last weekend (28th). The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. was RMB 6000 / T, up 200 yuan / T or 3.44% compared with last weekend (28th).

Prices of n-butanol in some regions of China this week (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

Price range of product name: 6 / 29 / 7 / 3

N-butanol in East China 5950-6050 6150-6250 + 200 / + 200

South China 6000-6100 6250-6350 + 250 / + 250

North China 5750-5850 5950-6050 + 200 / + 200

Northeast China 5750-5850 5950-6050 + 200 / + 200

Upstream, Shandong propylene market recovered this week, the overall upward market offer to support the cost of n-butanol. After the Dragon Boat Festival, on June 27, the market price of propylene began to rise. Until this Tuesday, the market had risen by 250 yuan / ton. Now the market transaction is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of propylene manufacturers is small, and there are many sets of devices to transmit maintenance information.

On the downstream side, affected by the rise of n-butanol market and cost support, the market of butyl acrylate rose steadily and slightly this week. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is 7750-7850 yuan / T accessories. Downstream suppliers need to purchase, and the market transaction is OK.

According to the n-butanol analysts of the business club, it is reported that the overhaul of n-butanol units in July continues to increase, the factory inventory remains low, the supply side is reduced, which gives market confidence, and the downstream replenishment is stable. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will have any upward space in the future.

Since the beginning of June, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (BR) ended its downward trend in May and started the upward Road, and its price went up sharply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 7630 yuan / ton at the beginning of June. As of July 3, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose to 8230 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 7.86%.

From the point of view of raw material price, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply from the beginning of June to the beginning of July, which could not promote the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber from the cost side. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the butadiene price in early June was 4140 yuan / ton, and as of July 2, the butadiene price dropped to 3445 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 16.79%.

Trend chart of all steel tire operating rate from January to June 2020

From the perspective of downstream tire industry, the operating rate of all steel tire fluctuated around 70% in May and June, with little change. The demand side is mainly rigid, but the increment is not much. It forms a bottom support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business agency, as of mid June, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire manufacturers was around 70%.

Compared with the price of natural rubber, natural rubber has driven the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to a certain extent. At the beginning of June, the price of natural rubber was around 10120 yuan / ton, while the price of cis-1-polybutadiene rubber was 7630 yuan / ton, and the price difference was around 2400 yuan / ton. The huge price difference enhanced the substitutability of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, and pushed the price of cis-1,1-polybutadiene rubber to move up.

In addition, judging from the recent operation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant of petrochemical manufacturers, the maintenance plan of Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 80000 T / a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit, to a certain extent, stimulated the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to further increase. According to the business agency, Yanshan Petrochemical’s 120000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance from July 1, and the preliminary estimate is that the plant will be shut down for 24 days, and the factory’s inventory is low; Qilu Petrochemical’s 80000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance in the middle of July, with an estimated time of 10-15 days.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that the current price rise of CIS polybutadiene rubber is still a rebound rather than a reversal, mainly due to the small improvement in demand growth. On the one hand, as the global epidemic continues to spread, trade friction is likely to intensify, casting a shadow on future demand. In addition, it is difficult for raw material prices to rebound significantly in the short term. From the perspective of the industrial chain, it is still difficult to form a profit for the later cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. On the other hand, in the short term, driven by plant maintenance and natural rubber, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may still have a small increase space, but on the whole, the price is difficult to reach 9000 yuan / ton.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 12175 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 0.61% during the month and a decrease of 1.02% compared with the same period last year.

Product: in June, the domestic aggregate MDI market was in a stalemate range, and the price fluctuation range was small, and the overall situation was weak. The average load of supply side in this month was slightly higher than that in May. Shanghai BASF and Shanghai Huntsman units were basically overhauled after the middle of June, and the devices in Ruian plant were still in shutdown state. The load of kosstro device increased slightly, and Wanhua Yantai device began to be overhauled in early July, lasting about 45 days. At the end of this month, the listing prices of major factories in July were stable, and the settlement prices in June were all on the high side.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene in East China rose first and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price rose due to the rise of crude oil. In the second half of the month, the pressure of port delivery appeared, which suppressed the softening of spot price.

Aniline, aniline market rose steadily in the first ten days of the month, while prices fell in the second ten days of the month. In the first ten days of the month, Shandong Jinling and Huatai aniline plants were reduced by half, and the aniline units of Jilin kangnair and Lanzhou Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance, and the market supply was reduced.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

At present, the listed prices of suppliers in July are stable, and the specific supply policy is not clear for the time being; Shanghai factory is expected to make a statement at the beginning of next month, and the market atmosphere is stagnant and cold, and the future market is not clear. MDI analysts from the business community gather expect that the market will be temporarily deadlocked and wait-and-see in the next month. If the Shanghai factory continues to follow the market, the market price may rise slightly; if one of the Shanghai factories has a large volume of goods, the market price may go down.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic ABS market was relatively strong in June, and the spot price of the market was mostly increased. As of June 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, which was 5.58% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

On the upstream side of ABS, the domestic mainstream styrene prices fluctuated generally in June. According to the monitoring results of business cooperatives, the prices of sample enterprises of business cooperatives were 5550.00 yuan / ton on June 12, 5483.33 yuan / ton on June 19, and the average prices of sample enterprises were about 5400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.82% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 38.64% compared with the same period last year. The contradiction between supply and demand has not changed. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory of styrene has fallen down, which has a certain support for the price. However, the social stock of styrene is still at a historical high, and the increase may be restrained by more ships arriving in Hong Kong later. At present, with the enhancement of regional security inspection and epidemic prevention, the cost of warehousing freight will further rise, and the spot selling pressure will continue to increase, suppressing the future market trend;

In June, the domestic acrylonitrile market performed poorly, the operating rate of production enterprises increased, and the spot supply in the market was sufficient. The downstream should be prepared carefully, and it can be taken as soon as it is used. Demand is weak, it is difficult for businesses to ship goods, the actual transaction center is down, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to be weak;

In June, the domestic butadiene market fell to the bottom, breaking through the new low of the year. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 4140 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 3456 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 16.51% during the month and a decrease of 58.85% compared with the same period last year. At present, the domestic ocean going ships are abundant in Hong Kong. Although there is a certain demand for butadiene in the downstream factories of Shandong Province, the market is still weak under the influence of the abundant supply of tank farms. The transaction of some northeast spot resources is not smooth, and the manufacturers’ prices continue to fall under pressure, and the market center of gravity falls with the whole body. Recently, the external market has been in a low level, Sinopec’s butadiene supply price has been lowered, and Shenhua Ningxia coal and Yangba butadiene plants have been restarted in the middle and late June, adding to the expected arrival of European ships. As a result, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market continues to increase. Although the start-up of major downstream industries remains relatively high, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of butadiene market rapidly under the pressure of supply side. The market of butadiene continued in the low range. In the future, supply pressure may become normal, and there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. Under the boost, the domestic butadiene market continues to fluctuate in the bottom range. It is suggested to pay attention to the latest price and transaction guidance of internal and external markets;

This month, the domestic ABS market stabilized after rising, which was due to the positive effect on the market of helmet consumption stimulated by relevant regulations of helmet safety guard action last month. Therefore, the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China was almost full load operation. According to statistics, in June, the overall domestic ABS plant was started about 97%, and the total output was about 335000 tons. In the first half of 2020, the domestic ABS production was about 1828000 tons. In June, the operating rate and output of ABS polymerization plant decreased, indicating that the downstream demand was weakened. The existing inventory is still at a low level, and the lack of on-site spot circulation is the driving force to support the prices of merchants. At the end of the month, the market performance was calm, and the downstream factories were mainly cautious in stock preparation. Some brands had a narrow range of 50-150 yuan / ton, and the trend turned to a stalemate and weak.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: ABS market in June after a standstill, the price of each brand is high. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is not good, the cost side support is weak. At present, the ABS spot supply is still less, the downstream of the ABS high price goods conflict, just take the goods to the bill, merchants are currently limited profit margin. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted downward in a narrow range in the near future.

In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the phenol market hit a new low in the first half of the year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the phenol commodity index on July 1 was 55.01, down 0.94 points compared with yesterday, 44.99% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 47.72% higher than 37.24 points, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Trend of phenol commodity index in East China from 2011 to 2020

On January 1, 2020, the average price of phenol in China was 7325 yuan / ton, and that in April 7 was 4900 yuan / ton, with the market down by 33.11%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 7300 yuan / ton on January 1 to 4500 yuan / ton on April 2, with a drop of 38.4% in the East China market. From the above point of view, the phenol market has reached a new record low (since 2011).

Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market in 2020

2020 is an extraordinary year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the epidemic broke out in an all-round way, and the logistics and transportation were blocked in all parts of the country. The phenol market also experienced an unusual period in this year. Under the domestic epidemic situation, the market was more sluggish, with few transactions. However, the phenol market price fluctuated little. From the trend of phenol Market in the first two months, the overall price was 7000 yuan/ About tons. However, after the global epidemic is serious and crude oil has plummeted, phenol, like most petrochemical products, is constantly breaking the low point. In 2020, we will witness too many historical moments. Specifically:

From January to February, the domestic phenol market was almost quiet. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the daily price of phenol in January 1 was 7325 yuan / ton, and that in February 18 was 7425 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 4% in a month and a half. Then, in late February, the market calm was finally broken. The business agency investigated more than 20 enterprises in the national phenol ketone industry chain, and most of them were in operation, but compared with the pre holiday operating rate With the gradual resumption of the market, the logistics and transportation problems are gradually alleviated. There are still difficulties in the short-term substantial increase of demand. The mentality is insufficient, the low price is frequent, and the focus of negotiation is constantly falling. As of February 28, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 7062 yuan / ton, which was 7.38% lower than that in the middle of February.

In March, the phenol market officially started a sharp decline trend. OPEC held a ministerial meeting on March 5, which decided to recommend that OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries implement an additional production reduction of 1.5 million barrels per day until the end of this year, and also proposed to extend the current production reduction plan of 1.7 million barrels per day from the end of March to the end of this year. As OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries failed to reach a consensus, Saudi Arabia substantially reduced the price of crude oil sold to foreign markets such as Europe, the Far East and the United States, and Saudi Arabia also intended to increase production. As soon as the news came out, the crude oil market experienced a rare one-day slump of 30%. Under the impact of public events and crude oil plummeting, the petrochemical market suffered a serious setback in the whole industrial chain, and the petrochemical phenol also showed up A cliff fall. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the phenol market continued to decline in March, with a cumulative decline of more than 30%. As of the Qingming Festival, the East China market quotation fell to 4500 yuan / ton.

From April to may, the sharp rise of crude oil led the phenol Market to stop falling and recover, breaking out of the trough. First, affected by the expected agreement on production reduction between Saudi Arabia and Russia, WTI and Brent soared by 25% in a single day. After the Qingming Festival, the listing price of pure benzene rose from 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton) to 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price of 3240 yuan / ton) on the 10th day, an increase of 32.4%. As an important raw material of phenol, pure benzene promoted the rise of phenol and increased market participation With the recovery of terminal operating rate, the phenol market gradually pushed up in the rise and fall of phenol Market. Second, affected by the 200% rise of acetone, a byproduct of the same plant, the phenol ketone industrial chain is very bright in the whole chemical industry. The sharp rise of acetone drives up the upstream and downstream products of the whole industrial chain. The rising of common raw materials is good for the cost support of phenol market and the market activity is improved.

In June, the first ten days were supported by the early positive, continued the upward trend, and the second ten days turned down mainly. The phenol Market offered 6750 yuan / ton on June 1, 7925 yuan / ton on June 9, up 17.41% in 9 days, and 7150 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 9.78% compared with that on June 9. However, from the perspective of the mainstream East China, it fell below 7000 yuan / ton in July. In the late June, the phenol market fell into a weak and weak downturn. Although the operating rate of domestic phenol plants decreased again narrowly, the overall operation rate was 60-70%. Among them, Changshu Changchun and Tianjin Zhongsha continued to shut down, Yangzhou Shiyou’s operating rate was reduced by about 60-70%. It is expected that the plant will be shut down for short-term maintenance at the beginning of next month, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China will resume the restart last week. In terms of ports, a small amount of goods arrived in late June for replenishment. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Hengyang replenished about 5000 tons, and Huaxi added more than 2000 tons. The port inventory is relatively reasonable, not high or low, and the supply side is not under pressure. Although the supply side is relatively reasonable, the market is in the psychological state of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm of intermediate traders to participate is not high, and the situation of terminal factories is not optimistic. The factories purchase more on demand, and a small amount of inventory. Many mainstream end users keep reducing the operating rate because of the downward trend of the industrial chain, and only sell the inventory of enterprises. In the late June, the downstream demand is not good The market continues to decline.

Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China

In July, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has dropped to 60%. In July, the 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant in Tianjin Zhongsha is expected to start on July 10, the 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Shanghai xisa chemical is expected to start in late July, the 320000 T / a phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou is expected to start on July 10, and the 400000 t / a phenol ketone unit of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on June 28, and it is expected to start up at the end of August. Therefore, from the late July, the operating rate is expected to rise, the supply is relatively sufficient, the demand side is looking at the low buying gas, the industry is not prosperous, and the factory start-up is also gradually declining. In the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is steadily increasing. The business association predicts that the demand side is hard to say good, and the supply side is full of bad news. The phenol Market is expected to be 6400-6800 yuan / ton in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic PA66 market fluctuated and adjusted in June. As of June 30, the average price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding mainstream offer was about 18900.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The trend of adipic acid upstream of PA66 in June continued the consolidation market in May, and the price rise and fall was weak, and the market was calm. According to the data of the business agency, the price of adipic acid rose slightly in June, but fell by only 0.9% in the whole month. The price of dealers showed mixed ups and downs, with the range of 100-200 yuan / ton. In terms of cost, crude oil continued to consolidate at a high level, and its impact on downstream was gradually weakened. The direct upstream product of adipic acid, pure benzene, dropped significantly in June, and the high level fell. In May, the sharp rise of pure benzene by 15% did not bring fundamental benefits to adipic acid. In June, pure benzene was recalled, adipic acid still did not follow, and the contradiction between supply and demand was still the main reason that puzzled adipic acid market out of the haze. In the later stage, the business club believes that the current oil price has reached a periodic high, and it has slightly stopped rising and falling due to the expansion of overseas epidemic situation at the end of June, and the recovery trend of chemical industry has also been restrained to a certain extent, and the fundamentals are mainly empty. In addition, the cost side is affected by the callback of pure benzene, and the price support of hexanedioic acid is weakened, which does not rule out the subsequent decline. More importantly, there is still no demand He Lihao, adipic acid has been consolidation in a narrow range for two consecutive months from May to June. The so-called long-term decline is inevitable. In the context of demand slowdown caused by the current epidemic situation, it is not ruled out that adipic acid prices may continue to explore lower.

In the first half of June, the price of PA66 market rose due to the decrease of spot on the spot, and the long overdue market price of PA66 market turned warm. After more than half a month’s adjustment, the situation of less supply in the market has been improved. At present, the domestic spot supply of PA66 is sufficient, and some factories have reduced the load and production. The operating rate of Shenma industry is about 80%, half of Huafeng Group’s units are shut down, Liaoyang Xingjia plant is shut down, and half of Dandong Youxian technology’s units are shut down. PA66 short-term tight supply has come to an end. At present, there is resistance to shipment from merchants and the transaction is difficult. Downstream factories are more resistant to high price goods, so they are more cautious in stock preparation.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: June domestic PA66 market narrow shock adjustment. The spot price of adipic acid in the upper reaches is temporarily stable, which can not support the cost of PA66. In the first half of the month, the spot supply decreased, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market eased, and the price rose. In the second half of the month, the shortage of goods improved, the business offer was loose, and there was resistance to trading. The downstream demand needs to be improved, and the goods preparation just needs to be operated. It is expected that PA66 market will continue to fall in the short term.