Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring shows that this week, plasticizer DOP market weakened, price shocks fell. As of August 31, the DOP price was 6966.67 yuan / ton, down 0.48% from the previous weekend (August 23) of 7000.00 yuan / ton, and 5.43% lower than that of last year.

Upstream market of industrial chain

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride trend chart, this week, DOP raw material phthalic anhydride market hit the bottom and rebounded, phthalic anhydride price rose slightly, with an increase of 0.99%, DOP cost rose and DOP rising momentum increased.

As can be seen from the octanol price trend chart, the octanol market fell in August, and the octanol market continued its downward trend this week. The octanol price fluctuated and fell by 1.18%. The cost of DOP decreased and the pressure of DOP decline increased.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that in August, the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC market recovered; this week, the PVC price fluctuated slightly, the PVC market weakened, the plasticizer DOP rising power weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Market review and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, this week, DOP raw material prices have been adjusted, phthalic anhydride prices have hit the bottom and risen slightly, octanol prices have dropped slightly, and the overall DOP cost has remained stable; on the downstream side, the PVC market has fallen slightly, the PVC price has fallen slightly, the upward momentum of DOP has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased. Generally speaking, DOP market has great downward pressure and weak upward momentum. Looking at the future market, “Jinjiu” is coming. PVC market has a strong upward momentum, which is good for DOP market. In terms of raw materials, DOP cost is stable, and DOP negative pressure is small. It is expected that the future market of DOP will recover.

This week, the domestic rare earth market price trend declined, heavy rare earth price fell back, light rare earth market price corresponding callback. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on August 28 was 378 points, 1 point lower than yesterday, 62.20% lower than the cycle high point 1000 (2011-12-06), and 39.48% higher than 271 point, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 341000 yuan / ton, down 2.43% from 349500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 436500 yuan / ton, 1.58% lower than 4435000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 362500 yuan / ton, down 0.55% from 364500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of metal neodymium was 459500 yuan / ton, which was stable this week The price of praseodymium was 330500 yuan / ton, down 2.07% from 337500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price trend of praseodymium metal was stable this week.

In recent years, the domestic light rare earth industry is mainly due to the negative downstream procurement, strong wait-and-see attitude, reduced trading volume, loss of support for manufacturers’ prices, some prices in the light rare earth market began to fall, and the price trend of other products was mainly stable. Recently, the demand and stock situation of permanent magnet manufacturers was general, the price of praseodymium and neodymium rare earth was mainly stable, and the market price of light rare earth was still at a low level. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the import volume of overseas rare earth ores has dropped sharply, and the waste recycling and monazite raw materials have decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic rare earth smelting production. In addition, the downstream stock has been stopped for some time ago, and the domestic market price of light rare earth has begun to fall.

This week, the price trend of domestic direct family declined. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.8 million yuan / ton, and the price trend of this week was down 0.28%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.78 million yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable this week. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan is large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth, but the information of collection and storage is uncertain Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths. However, the downstream demand is not positive in recent years, and the market price of heavy rare earth has fallen back. In recent years, the market is general, heavy rare earth prices remain high, downstream demand has not significantly improved, heavy rare earth market prices slightly lower.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand in the rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the demand has declined compared with the previous period. The domestic rare earth price fell this week.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has fallen down compared with the previous period. In addition, the downstream procurement is not active and the wait-and-see attitude is strong. Analysts from the business agency predict that the market price of rare earth will decline in the future.

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on August 28 was 416.33 yuan / g, a decrease of 2.19%%, compared with the average price of 425.66 yuan / G on the spot market of buyers · 1 day in 1998; the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), up 21.54%; compared with the valley value of the year (3.19), the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 25.50%; compared with the peak value of the year (8.7), the spot price of silver was 4.4% 48 yuan / g, down 7.07%.

On August 28, the average price of silver market was 5946.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 8.02%%, compared with the average price of 5504.33 yuan / kg in the early trading of spot market on August 28; compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), 4281.67 yuan / kg, up 33.33%; compared with the valley value (3.19), the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kilogram, up 102.07%; compared with the peak value (8.11) of the year, the spot price of silver decreased by 1.1% 1.36%。

On August 28, the benchmark quotation of Shanghai gold (gold ingot with standard weight of 1kg and fineness of no less than 99.99%) was 417.68 yuan / g in midday trading on Shanghai gold exchange. Compared with 416.12 yuan / g in early trading, the benchmark price was increased by 1.56 yuan / g.

On August 28th, the benchmark quotation of Shanghai silver (15kg standard weight and 99.99% purity silver ingot) in Shanghai gold exchange was 5973 yuan / kg in midday trading, and was increased by 32 yuan / kg from 5941 yuan / kg in the early trading.

Influencing factors of recent news

1. Fed policy

At 21:10 Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve issued a revised statement of its long-term goals. Fed chairman Colin Powell said the Fed’s inflation target is now 2%. The Fed did not provide a formula to define an average 2% inflation rate. Powell said the Fed’s new strategy was “a flexible form of targeting average inflation.”.

Generally speaking, when the inflation rate is more than 2%, the possibility of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will decrease. For the first time, domestic precious metal futures will rise sharply in the night trading, and then the funds will take profits and plunge sharply.

2. Sino US Geopolitics

On August 25, China protested that the US reconnaissance plane broke into the restricted area for military exercises. On the 26th, China launched four medium range missiles into the Xisha sea area of the South China Sea. The US side subsequently sanctioned 24 Chinese enterprises involved in the South China Sea, and the military also made a strong voice. On the 27th, China protested that the US warships had broken into Xisha territorial waters on the same day.

The price of ethylene oxide has been adjusted many times this month. Taking the mainstream East China as an example, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide including tax at the beginning of the month was 6600 yuan / ton, and it was increased to 7200 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 9.09%.

At the beginning of the month, CFR Northeast Asia market price was 800 US dollars / ton, today’s price was 720 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 10%. The cost support is weak, and EO profit space is increased. Ethylene glycol inventory process is good, the price of large stable small rise. With the advent of the downstream unit bottom price, manufacturers’ inventory is low, and low-cost procurement is started. The supply and demand situation is conducive to the market recovery. Driven by the expected steady growth of downstream demand, and the maintenance of about 400000 tons of ethylene oxide plant at the end of this month, the regional shortage of goods has intensified.

Under the multi space game, the rising market of ethylene oxide was established, and the price showed a continuous growth trend.

Digest the increase and maintain stability in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall market price of polyester filament showed an upward trend in August, among which the most obvious increase was polyester POY. As of August 28, the average market price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) was 5314 yuan / ton, up 3.84% compared with the beginning of the month, and decreased by 31.40% year-on-year.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in August, unit: yuan / ton

Products up and down from August 20, 2020 to August 28, 2020

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5117 5314 3.84% – 31.40%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5656 5815 2.80% – 27.13%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6657 6732 1.13% – 26.61%

In August, due to the rising international crude oil price, raw material PTA operating rate decline, and good cost, polyester prices rose. However, due to the low-season demand, the inventory pressure increased. In the middle of the year, the mainstream large polyester filament manufacturers began to promote their sales, and the downstream and traders took advantage of low prices to make up their positions. According to statistics, up to now, the average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 40% – 60%, and the production and sales of some promotional factories can reach 200%, and the inventory pressure of factories is slightly relieved. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 33-41 days, among which POY inventory is 11-17 days, FDY inventory is around 22-33 days, and DTY inventory is about 30-41 days.

Recent changes of PTA plant in China

Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status

Huabin Petrochemical 140 starts to reduce the load by 50% on August 25, 2020, with a plan of about 15 days

Yangzi Petrochemical 65 will be overhauled on August 6, 2020, restarted on August 21, and discharged on August 22

Hailun Petrochemical 120: August 2, 2020, overhaul for 1 month

Ningbo Taihua 120 will be overhauled on August 3, 2020, restarted on August 20, and qualified products will be produced on August 22

Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop short in the evening of August 24, 2020, and heat up and feed on August 27, 2020, and qualified products have been produced

Livan polyester 70 will be shut down on April 30, 2020, to be restarted

Hanbang Petrochemical will stop for maintenance on May 9, 2020, and restart to be determined

220. The load will be reduced by 50% on August 6, 2020, and restored on August 7. The unit will be shut down for two days on August 27

Honggang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop short on August 10, 2020 and restart on August 17, 2020

Tianjin Petrochemical Company will shut down for maintenance on April 17, 2020, and restart to be determined

Luoyang Petrochemical Company will start maintenance for 27 days at the end of July 2020

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 will be shut down for maintenance on March 9, 2020, and restart to be determined

Fuhai Chuang 450 will reduce the load by about 70% on August 12, 2020, return to 90% on August 18, and full load on August 20

Jialong petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on August 2, 2019, restart time to be determined

PTA price in raw material market was adjusted by shock. As of August 28, the average market price was 3574 yuan / ton, up 0.1% compared with the beginning of the month, and decreased by 31.69% year on year. In August, PTA price has a significant impact on the supply side fluctuation. Since the beginning of the month, PTA plant began to be overhauled, mainly involving Ningbo Taihua, hailun petrochemical, Honggang petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, etc. at the same time, fuhaichuang and Huabin Petrochemical also successively reduced the load, and the operating load of PTA industry dropped to around 82% within the month. However, with the negative impact of the restart of Ningbo Taihua and Yangzi petrochemical plants, the price began to weaken. Near the end of the month, some PTA units stopped short, the production and sales of polyester plants recovered periodically, and the hurricane made a certain upward boost to crude oil. PTA rebounded slightly. However, the market’s worries about terminal demand did not fade, and under the pressure of PTA social inventory, it finally showed a weak state.

At the end of the month, affected by the preferential promotion of raw materials, downstream textile enterprises appropriately replenished their goods on demand, and local transactions were hot. At the same time, with the coming of the “golden nine silver ten” textile sales season, the overall orders of traditional textile market have increased significantly in recent years. The listed varieties of garment lining and bag lining auxiliary materials with polyester filament as the main raw material in the traditional market of China Light and textile city have increased, the number of fabric proofing in autumn and winter continues to increase slightly, and the number of orders increased. Domestic trade orders and foreign trade orders have improved. In terms of foreign trade orders, orders from Europe and the Middle East still account for a relatively large proportion. Textile market ushered in a period of warming market, loom operating load increased to 65%. The production of China’s textile industry recovered steadily, and the decline rate narrowed month by month. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the industrial added value of textile industry above Designated Size in China decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that in January June.

From the perspective of textile and clothing retail, the total retail sales of textile and clothing reached 88.9 billion yuan in July, down 2.5% compared with the same period last year. From January to July, China’s total retail sales of textile and clothing exceeded 595.9 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. In terms of export, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2020, China’s textile and clothing export volume was 31.294 billion US dollars, a month on month increase of 7.79%. Among them, the export volume of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 15.976.9 billion US dollars, down 1.11% month on month; the export volume of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 15.3175 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.97% on a month on month basis. From January to July, China’s textile and clothing exports amounted to 156.482 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.57% over the same period of last year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was US $90.080.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 31.25%; and that of clothing was 66.402 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 16.58%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, believes that whether the demand side continues to pick up remains to be seen. At present, the loom operating load is at a low point in the same period in recent years, and the grey cloth inventory in Shengze area of Jiangsu Province is still at a historical high of about 45 days. At the same time, the textile enterprises at the end of the industrial chain are affected by the high inventory of finished products and the prolonged sales collection cycle, resulting in increased capital pressure. In addition, the export resistance of textile and clothing in overseas market is larger. In the short term, the periodic recovery of the current demand side will boost the confidence of the textile market. With the advent of the “golden nine silver decade”, it will be further improved. Therefore, the price of polyester filament in September is likely to remain volatile and upward.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to weaken. As of August 27, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2360 yuan / ton, down 10.38% from 2633 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At present, there are 2300-2400 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2250-2350 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2400-2500 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2150-2200 yuan / ton in Henan, 2400-2500 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2000 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.2000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.8.5 maintenance for 25 days

Yangtze BP 50 1300

Jiangsu Sopu 120.3000

Celanese 1200 2000

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35 700

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1000

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1100

At present, the overall domestic acetic acid operation is stable, the spot supply is sufficient, and the downstream market demand is flat, which leads to the situation that the supply exceeds the demand in the industry, and the enterprises are forced to sell by bidding, and the trade atmosphere in the industry continues to be cold. Enterprises mainly pay attention to the delivery of contract orders. Although the inventory of some enterprises decreases slightly, the overall inventory of the industry is still at a high level.

In terms of the upstream market, the methanol market continued to decline, and the downstream market’s intention to receive goods was flat. Although some enterprises successively issued maintenance plans, they did not have a substantial positive impact on the market. At present, it is about 1615 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream, the downstream industries of acetic acid, such as vinyl acetate and acetate, are running weakly and stably. The demand of downstream market is low. Enterprises mainly digest inventory, and the atmosphere of bearish in the industry is obvious.

In recent years, the international acetic acid market has mostly maintained a weak and stable operation, among which the Asian acetic acid market quotation is about 280-320 US dollars / ton; the European market is about 530 euro / ton; the North American market is about 440 US dollars / ton.

Acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that at present, domestic acetic acid enterprises mainly focus on digesting contracts, and there is not enough new orders. As Hualu Hengsheng resumes production in the near future, the supply in the industry will be further improved, and the situation of supply exceeding demand will be intensified. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid enterprises will operate in a weak situation in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 27, the comprehensive price of PC market was 14233.33 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic PC market was up, and the overall atmosphere was fair. Compared with the same period last week, the price of PC increased by 1.91% and 4.4% compared with that of the same period last month. In the last month, it showed a trend of going up.

The domestic PC market has a strong bullish atmosphere, high negotiation atmosphere and general demand. It mainly needs to purchase on demand, and most of them wait and see. At present, the price of East China market is 13500-15050 yuan / ton, and the middle and high-end price is 15000-16000 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere of PC is good, and it may continue to rise in the short term. The latest price of the enterprise is 13700 yuan / ton of Luxi Chemical, 14000 yuan / ton of Lihua yiweiyuan, and 15000 yuan / ton of Shanghai Kesi.

The upstream bisphenol market price trend is weak, the transaction atmosphere is not good, and the negotiation atmosphere is cold. The reference price of the East China market is around 9800-9850 yuan / ton, and the profits are mainly sold by single.

On August 26, the rubber and plastic index was 635 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 40.09% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 20.27% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency PC analysts believe: the PC market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of spandex first fell and then rose in August. As of August 27, the average price of spandex 40d specification was 31800 yuan / ton, up 2.25% compared with the beginning of the month, and decreased by 0.31% year-on-year. Spandex manufacturers started about 80% of the start-up, still maintaining a high level. In the second half of the month, with the continuous strengthening of raw material prices and strong replenishment sentiment in the downstream market, spandex prices recovered slightly.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 34500-35500 33500-34500-27500-28500

Shandong 35000-36000 34000-35000 28000-29000

Fujian 35000-36000 34000-35000 28000-32000

Jiangsu 34500-35500 33500-34500 28500-32000

Equipment situation of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name address capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Shanxi 3D and Shanxi Hongdong 5 are in parking, and there is no plan to restart temporarily

Yizheng Dalian Jiangsu Yizheng 4 plant shutdown

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical Ningxia Yinchuan 9.2 unit load is not high

The load of 4.6 unit in Huaxian, Shaanxi is not high

Henan Nenghua Henan Hebi 6 parking

The load of Xinjiang Meike Xinjiang Korla 5 unit is not high

Tunhe River, Lanshan, Xinjiang, Changji, Xinjiang, April 6, July 25, maintenance, parking

The raw material PTMEG market is waiting for consolidation. At the end of the month, the suppliers have strong intention to increase. In terms of price, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 14000-15000 yuan / ton, and the actual negotiation price is 13700-14000 yuan / ton. In terms of devices, 50000 tons of Shanxi sanwei, 40000 tons of Yizheng Dalian and 60000 tons of Henan Nenghua are still in shutdown, and there is no plan to restart. The load of Sinopec Great Wall energy and chemical industry 92000 tons, Shaanxi chemical industry 46000 tons and Xinjiang Meike 50000 tons units is not high, and the 46000 tons plant of Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe was overhauled on July 25. At present, the PTMEG industry as a whole started about 50% of its operation, so it is cautious to start.

Price statistics of domestic pure MDI market in August (unit: yuan / ton)

Regional up and down from August 3 to August 27

South China 13300-13500 15300-15700 2000-2200

North China 13300-13500 15400-15700 2100-2200

East China 13300-13500 15300-15700 2000-2200

In the pure MDI market, since July, Wanhua chemical, kestron, BASF and other companies have announced that their plants have been shut down. The cumulative affected MDI production capacity is 1.1 million tons / year, accounting for 12.4% of the global total production capacity. Under the contraction of supply, factories at home and abroad have raised prices one after another. Wanhua chemical, the world’s largest MDI producer, announced that the listing price of pure MDI in September 2020 would be 18000 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton compared with August 2020. BASF also announced that it would increase the price of all lupranate MDI products by US $0.12/lb from September 1, 2020 or as soon as the contract allows. As of August 27, the market price was in the range of 15300-15700 yuan / ton, up 2000-2200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. The supplier controlled the quantity of the goods and continued to pull up the market. The offer stuck to the delivery.

In August, some fabrics in the downstream were slightly active, among which the round knitting machine started to rise slightly, maintaining above 40%. At present, the start-up in Haining is fair, and the level of warp knitting market is maintained at 60-70%; Zhangjiagang starts slightly better, orders are slightly followed up, and the start-up level of wrapped yarn is maintained at 60-70%; the overall market in Fujian is generally started, with lace at 30-40% and warp knitting at 60-70%; the construction in Guangdong is stable, and the start-up of circular knitting and warp knitting markets is maintained at 50-80%. “Gold nine silver ten” traditional peak season is coming, the traditional market has recovered, and the overall order growth trend is obvious. In summer, the turnover of thin fabrics continued to decline, and the proofing of autumn and winter fabrics continued to increase slightly, with local increase of orders. Domestic trade orders and foreign trade orders have improved. In terms of foreign trade orders, orders from Europe and the Middle East still account for a relatively large proportion.

In terms of the industry, the total retail sales of textile and clothing in July reached 88.9 billion yuan, down 2.5% compared with the same period last year. From January to July, China’s total retail sales of textile and clothing exceeded 595.9 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. In terms of export, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2020, China’s textile and clothing export volume was 31.294 billion US dollars, a month on month increase of 7.79%. Among them, the export volume of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 15.976.9 billion US dollars, down 1.11% month on month; the export volume of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 15.3175 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.97% on a month on month basis. From January to July, China’s textile and clothing exports amounted to 156.482 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.57% over the same period of last year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was US $90.080.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 31.25%; and that of clothing was 66.402 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 16.58%.

Business agency analysts believe that spandex manufacturers better than last month’s shipment, reduce the pressure on inventory, some supplies a little tight. Upstream raw material market pull up atmosphere still exists, cost support increases. Some middlemen and downstream customers have replenishment, but the actual demand of the terminal market is slightly cautious, and the market holds a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. It is believed that with the advent of the textile peak season, the spandex market is expected to remain warm in the short term.

Price list of aluminum ingot

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on August 27 was 14740 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.80% compared with the average market price of 15010 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1), 1.28% higher than the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.18% compared with the valley value of average market price in the year (March 24).

In August, the price of aluminum ingots fell first and then rose, with a range of 14400-15000 yuan / ton.

Analysis of electrolytic aluminum industry chain

1. Overview of the upstream and downstream of electrolytic aluminum industry chain

 
2. Rough estimation of social production cost of electrolytic aluminum

 
3. Price trend of electrolytic aluminum industry chain

(1) Price trend of aluminum and steam coal in 2020

(2) Price trend of aluminum and aluminum fluoride in 2020

(3) Price trend of aluminum and cryolite in 2020

(4) Price trend of aluminum and caustic soda (related to alumina production) in 2020

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of electrolytic aluminum has little correlation with the price of auxiliary materials in 2020, and the major factors affecting the price are mainly reflected in the price changes of raw alumina and the factors of supply and demand.

4. The price of raw material alumina is rising

In August, affected by the news of another reduction of alumina production in hydro alumina plant in Brazil, the market expectation of alumina price rising was strengthened. The performance of external price was obvious. The price of alumina FOB in Australia was 288 USD / T, up 23 USD / T compared with last week. Domestic alumina prices have recovered slightly at the same time. Manufacturers are generally willing to deliver goods. There are more holding companies and a strong bullish atmosphere in the overall market. The price quoted in the northern market is 2350-2400 yuan / ton, while that in the southern market is 2300-2350 yuan / ton. From the regional perspective, the transaction price of Shanxi alumina is 2360-2380 yuan / ton, Henan’s is 2360-2380 yuan / ton, Shandong’s is 2340-2380 yuan / ton, Guangxi’s is 2320-2360 yuan / ton, Guizhou’s is 2320-360 yuan / ton. The transaction price of Lianyungang alumina is 2380-2420 yuan / ton.

New alumina production capacity in August: Guangxi Huasheng New Material Co., Ltd. is expected to produce products in mid August, with a production capacity of 2 million tons / year in phase I; Jinzhong hopes that aluminum industry will implement flexible production, with a current operating capacity of 2 million tons / year.

Overview of electrolytic aluminum fundamentals in August

Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly in August

According to statistics, as of August 20, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 762000 tons, accumulating for five consecutive weeks, an increase of 60000 tons compared with the 702000 tons on July 23.

2. Downstream operation in August: strong demand for aluminum foil, general profile, cable and strip

In August, aluminum foil consumption peak season, the market demand is strong; the demand for electronic foil, electrode foil and brazing foil has increased steadily; air conditioning foil and double zero soft wrapping foil continue the hot market since June.

The production capacity of primary aluminum alloy was increased in August, and the operating rate was slightly increased. The downstream aluminum alloy wheel manufacturers mainly purchased on demand, but failed to increase synchronously.

Aluminum strip, aluminum profile, aluminum wire and cable started operation in August, and basically maintained stable operation; due to UHV orders of aluminum cable, the bidding volume was lower than that of the same period last year, and the future market was relatively pessimistic. In terms of aluminum plate and strip, there was a strong demand for building decorative plate strip, can cover material and pull ring material in the early stage, while the automobile plate and strip with weak demand in the early stage recovered in August.

Some aluminum industry projects to be built in August

Future forecast

At present, the price of electrolytic aluminum is stable and strong, and the future market is expected to continue to maintain.

At the raw material end, the overseas production reduction pushed up the alumina price, and the prebaked anode market remained relatively stable. At present, the profit of electrolytic aluminum industry is at a high level. Although there will be a batch of new production capacity to be put into operation this month, the electrolytic aluminum inventory has a slight recovery sign, but the current social inventory is still relatively low. The downstream is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season, and the operating rate has increased slightly, supporting the strong operation of domestic aluminum prices.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 26, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 4566.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic silica market was stable, with balanced supply and demand, mainly on demand.

The domestic rubber grade silica market as a whole maintains stable operation. The trading atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the demand is not significantly improved. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the merchants are cautious in taking the goods, and the delivery is slow. At present, the price of fumed silica is about 22000 yuan / ton. The domestic supply and demand of fumed silica are balanced, and the shipment is slow. Changtai Weina factory in Shouguang City, Shandong Province is 5100 yuan / ton Shandong Lihua New Material Co., Ltd. 4600 yuan / ton, Boai Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd. 4000 yuan / ton.

The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is stable temporarily, the trading atmosphere is maintained at the early stage level, and the domestic hydrochloric acid market mainly operates stably.

The chemical index on August 25 was 683 points, up 2 points compared with yesterday, 32.78% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 14.21% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market continues to operate stably, and the price changes little. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)