1、 Trend analysis

On August 19, the spot copper price was 52305 yuan / ton, up 2.26% compared with the previous day, 6.67% higher than that at the beginning of the year, and 12.53% higher than that at the beginning of the year. LME copper’s 3-month contract rose rapidly to US $6686 at the beginning of the trading, and then came under pressure. The Asian stock market closed at US $6633, up 0.52%; Shanghai copper’s main force continued to rise 52520 yuan in the morning, then fell back to close at 52150 yuan, an increase of 2.60%.

Global copper smelting activity fell in July to its lowest level in more than two years, with the weak performance appearing to be partly due to increased maintenance at smelters. China’s refined copper production was 814000 tons in July, flat on a year-on-year basis, down 5.3% month on month, according to data released by the National Bureau of statistics on Tuesday. Rio Tinto lowered its annual production target to 135000-175000 tons, up from 165000 to 205000 tons. LME copper stocks fell to a 13 year low on Tuesday as inventories continued to flow out and overseas inventories continued to decline. In the spot market, the sellers hold the price and are reluctant to sell, while the middlemen just need to buy. They are afraid of high and wait-and-see mood in the lower reaches, and the transaction is not so good.

In view of the above situation, the decline of overseas inventory of refined copper and the decline of output have led to the rise of copper price. However, the market is still in the end of the off-season in August, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price maintained a small decline on August 18, with the average spot market price of 3619 yuan / ton, down 0.06% compared with the previous trading day, and 32.13% lower than that of the previous trading day. PTA main futures (2101) closed slightly lower, closing at 3762, down 6% from the previous trading day.

Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status

Huabin Petrochemical 140 plans to overhaul for 10-15 days in late August 2020

Yangzi Petrochemical 65 will be overhauled on August 6, 2020, and will be restarted on August 21

Hailun Petrochemical 120: August 2, 2020, overhaul for 1 month

Ningbo Taihua 120 will be overhauled on August 3, 2020 and restarted on August 17, 2020

Yadong Petrochemical 70 plans to overhaul for 3 days at the end of August 2020

Livan polyester 70 will be shut down on April 30, 2020, to be restarted

Hanbang Petrochemical Company will stop for maintenance from May 9, 2020, and restart to be determined

220. Reduce the negative rate by 50% on August 6, 2020 and resume on August 7, 2020

Honggang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop short on August 10, 2020 and restart on August 17, 2020

Tianjin Petrochemical Company will shut down for maintenance on April 17, 2020, and restart to be determined

Luoyang Petrochemical Company will start maintenance for 27 days at the end of July 2020

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 will be shut down for maintenance on March 9, 2020, and restart to be determined

Fuhai Chuang 450 will reduce the load by 70% on August 12, 2020, which is expected to last for a week.

Jialong petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on August 2, 2019, restart time to be determined

PTA market traders mainly buy, spot trading atmosphere is not good. In terms of units, the PTA units of Honggang and Ningbo Taihua are in the process of heating up and restarting. Yangzi Petrochemical plant is also planned to restart this Friday, and the supply will increase again, which is detrimental to the market mentality. At present, PTA start-up load is around 83%.

The new polyester plant put into operation in the early stage of downstream is in normal operation, and the demand performance is relatively stable, and the starting load of polyester is 87.68%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 33-40 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 11-18 days, FDY inventory is around 22-32 days, and DTY inventory is about 30-40 days. In terms of price, from the end of July to the beginning of August, the price of polyester filament fluctuated and rose, and the cash flow of POY and FDY gradually improved. So far, some FDY models have turned losses into profits. Considering that the price of polyester filament is at a historical low point, texturing and weaving enterprises are still willing to buy if there is no financial pressure. If the raw materials are properly promoted, downstream users will still consider bargain hunting.

The terminal orders have improved, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to 63.30%, but it is still at a low level compared with the same period last year. China Light and Textile City summer thin fabric transactions continue to decline, domestic market there are many suppliers in autumn and winter fabric proofing continued to increase, local orders increased. Foreign trade market, especially the arrival of autumn and winter fabric orders, gradually opened up the situation, sales began to increase locally.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that with the restart of some units, PTA supply is expected to be relaxed, and the inventory of the industrial chain is high, and there are still worries about the domestic sales and export sales of the terminal. Therefore, it is expected that PTA price will weaken in the short term and adjust mainly.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of acrylic acid has been rising steadily. As of August 18, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 7216.67 yuan / ton, up 1.88% compared with last Monday (August 10) and 0.23% lower than that on July 18, according to the data from the bulk list of business agencies.

Last Monday (August 10), the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7083.33 yuan / ton, and the price of raw material propylene was still upward. The downstream enterprises maintained the rigid demand procurement, the inquiry and transaction were light, and the market was running smoothly. On the 17th, some enterprises raised their prices. At present, the price of raw material propylene was running at a high level. Under the cost pressure, the market price was hard to find. On the 18th, some enterprises raised their offers Market trading atmosphere gradually active.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 7500 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: August 18, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 9700 yuan / T refined acid, 99.7% content, 2020-08-18

Jinan-08, grade of YOUPU Chemical Co., Ltd

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T. industry standard: Pu acid; grade: superior product: August 13, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: August 12, 2020

Upstream propylene, as of August 17, the market price of propylene in Shandong has declined slightly. According to the price chart of business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, and the price range of recent fluctuation has broken through. According to the price chart of business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, and the price range of recent fluctuation has broken through. At the beginning of August, the price was at a high level in the range. Since the end of the week, the price of some enterprises has been slightly up and down. On the 5th, it has been stable. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month was started. On the 11th, the prices of some enterprises went down. On the 14th, the prices of some enterprises continued to decline. Today, the prices were generally stable, and some enterprises still went down The price is between 6950 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers stable shipment, inventory without pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current price of raw material propylene is high, the cost support is strong, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of acrylic acid may be stable and better.

The sulfur commodity index on August 18 was 41.33, up 2.19 points compared with yesterday, 60.20% lower than 103.84 points (2011-11-02), and 60.26% higher than the lowest point of 25.79 on February 24, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China was 753.33 yuan / ton, with a daily increase of 5.61%. At present, the sulfur inventory of domestic refineries is low, and the supply of liquid sulfur is tight. Under the performance of supply and demand, it supports the market. On Tuesday, refineries in various regions made quotations according to their own shipment situation. Most of the quotations were raised, while a few were temporarily stable. Sinopec’s quotation for solid-liquid sulfur in East China was increased by 30 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s quotation for solid-liquid sulfur in East China was increased by 20 yuan / ton; solid sulfur in Shandong area of Sinopec was increased by 60 yuan / ton and liquid sulfur was increased by 40 yuan / ton.

The downstream sulphuric acid market has been running steadily for a while. The domestic acid market is obviously regionalized, with high and low prices coexisting. In the aspect of ammonium phosphate, the market of ammonium monoammonium was reorganized and operated, downstream factories purchased on demand, the market atmosphere was weak, the market trend of diammonium was better, the downstream demand was better, and the market price continued to be firm.

Aftermarket forecast: at present, most of the quotations of domestic sulfur enterprises are rising, and the price of sulphuric acid market is firm, and the later market may be improved under the support of domestic market.

1、 Price trend

The average price of TDI market in East China on the 18th was 14000.00 yuan / ton, up 10.53% compared with yesterday and 1.94% higher than last year, according to the data from the bulk list of business agencies. On August 18, the TDI commodity index was 74.07, up 7.05 points from yesterday, 70.14% lower than 248.02 points (2016-10-19), and 40.92% higher than the lowest point of 52.56 points on May 5, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Last week, suppliers intensively released good news. TDI raised the weekly guidance price of manufacturers for three consecutive weeks, and the quotation of kosstro rose last Thursday, and Wanhua stopped receiving orders on Friday. In addition, the supply side intended to pull up, the market continued strongly this week. Wanhua chemical’s guiding price this week was increased by 2000 yuan to 15000 yuan / T. under the sharp pull-up of the factory guidance price, the dealers followed the factory’s offer. At present, the East China market is in a high consolidation level, and the enterprise’s offer remains at a high level. As of the 18th, the quotation of domestic goods with bill of lading in East China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai is 13700-14500 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the trend of toluene market is stable. Affected by the lower demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream, the demand for toluene is weak, and the trading atmosphere is weak. On the other hand, the international crude oil has been pushed up and down, which is generally stable. Considering the impact of economic recovery on crude oil demand and the trend of international crude oil, the toluene market may fluctuate slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analysis of the business agency: at present, the domestic TDI market tends to be strong. After the factory guide price rises sharply, the dealers follow the factory’s offer to a high level. The downstream side resists the high price. The business operators are cautious and the supplier’s support is obvious. In the short term, the domestic TDI market may be consolidated at a high level.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 1850.00 yuan / ton, which was 18.32% lower than the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, on August 14, the potassium chloride commodity index was 58.73.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at weekend is 1820 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution at weekend is 1880 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In mid August, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock in Hong Kong, the weak demand and the downward trend of international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts of the business club believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is mainly low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

The domestic ethanol market has been reorganized and operated. According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6187 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6175 yuan / ton at the weekend. During the week, the price dropped slightly, down 0.20%, and the price rose by 2.28% month on month compared with the same period of last month and 14.78% higher than that of the same period last year

This week, the domestic ethanol market was sorted out and operated. From the perspective of raw corn, first of all, the transaction price of raw corn fell this week. Secondly, some production enterprises in Henan Province resumed normal operation this week, and the inventory of enterprises increased relatively in a short time. Finally, the downstream demand is mainly on demand, and many small orders are traded. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market fluctuates less.

Logistics: at present, freight fluctuation is not big. This week, Heilongjiang Shandong Dezhou freight is about 280 yuan / ton, Anhui Nanchang 250 yuan / ton, Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 160-220 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, corn: according to the business agency, in August, the auction of state-owned corn continued, and the auction was still hot. Since the price of corn has been rising sharply since July, the rise is small, more than 1%. Due to the continuous high price of corn, CSGC adjusted the bidding rules for many times, alleviated the transaction premium of corn auction, and the average auction price dropped slightly compared with the end of July. Corn spot prices have also stabilized.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose slightly this week. At present, the production of ethyl acetate is stable, the spot supply is sufficient, and the short-term demand for raw materials acetic acid and ethanol is not favorable for the time being. The domestic market of ethyl acetate is mainly on a wait-and-see manner.

In the future, the ethanol analysts of the business club predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would still be sorted out and operated.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 17th, the spot nickel price was 114683.33 yuan / ton, up 0.6% compared with the previous trading day, 0.84% higher than the beginning of the year, and 9.56% lower than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel opened at 114380 yuan, and the price rose sharply after opening, closing at 115950 yuan, up 1.62%. LME3 nickel closed at 14575 US dollars, up 1.36%.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of nickel ore, the port inventory was 8.08 million tons, with a rise on a month on month basis. The Philippine mine loaded 65 ships this week, keeping at a high level, and the tight supply situation continued to ease. However, the nickel ore inventory is still at a low level, and the downstream just needs to be prepared, so the ore price is expected to remain high. At present, the price of ferronickel and waste stainless steel is firm, and the output of stainless steel has reached a record high. With the arrival of the peak season of traditional consumption of stainless steel in September, the demand for nickel in stainless steel will remain high. The demand for new energy has gradually improved, and the output of new energy vehicles in China has continued to rise on a month on month basis. But the consumption terminal, the real estate investment completion still maintains the negative growth, the domestic stainless steel consumption faces the pressure. In terms of ferronickel, Indonesia’s Delong Qingshan Industrial Park was put into production at the end of the second quarter. Several production lines were still put into operation from July to August, and Indonesia NPI concentrated iron production in the later stage. A large amount of low-cost ferronickel has been returned to China, and the domestic ferronickel may be surplus in the third quarter.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term fundamentals of nickel are acceptable, but with the production of ferronickel, there is a certain pressure on nickel upward space, and nickel is expected to maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agencies, the domestic spot market price of PTA fell slightly on August 17, with an average price of 3621 yuan / ton, down 0.24% compared with the previous trading day, and 32.09% lower than that of the previous trading day. PTA main futures (2101) closed higher and closed at 3774, up 6. 6% from the previous trading day.

PTA market traders mainly buy, spot trading atmosphere is not good. In terms of units, the PTA units of Honggang and Ningbo Taihua are in the process of heating up and restarting. Yangzi Petrochemical plant is also planned to restart this Friday, and the supply will increase again, which is detrimental to the market mentality. In terms of downstream demand, the polyester starting load was 87.68%, the terminal orders were improved recently, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased to 63.30%, but it was at a low level year on year.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that PTA supply is expected to be loose, but social inventory is still high, and downstream demand is difficult to continue to improve, and PTA price is expected to weaken and adjust.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP fluctuated slightly in the second week of August, and the price of various brands increased or decreased slightly. As of August 14, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7900.00 yuan / ton, which was 1.28% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month, with a weekly decrease of 0.84%.

Cause analysis

Polypropylene upstream propylene, according to business agency data show that the recent market trend of propylene cyclical shocks. Last week, spot prices continued to rise, breaking through the recent shock price range, propylene stable operation this week. At the beginning of August, the price was at a high level in the range. Since the end of the week, the price of some enterprises has been slightly up and down. On the 5th, it has been stable. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month has been started. The price has remained stable since 11th. The market transaction is still between 7000 and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers stable shipment, low inventory. At present, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is not under pressure, the crude oil price is slightly upward, the downstream polypropylene futures are high volatility, and the profit margin of propylene oxide is rising. The overall market procurement is picking up, and the market is good. But there are also some downstream obvious downward, there is a certain negative impact. Due to the overall downstream support, it is expected that the propylene price may still rise in the short term.

The upstream propylene breaks through the recent price fluctuation range and tends to be strong, which has cost support for PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, in the first half of August, the market performance of PP (wire drawing) was stable, and the spot price was adjusted slightly. At present, the monthly peak appeared at about 8000 yuan / ton on August 5 last week, and there was a slight correction this week. The recent strong trend of the far upstream crude oil also formed a certain support for chemicals. In addition, due to the extreme weather at the beginning of the month, the arrival of imported goods was delayed, and the port PP inventory decreased compared with the same period of last year, which was good for PP and supported the firmness of spot price. However, in the middle and late August, the production of PP maintenance devices will be resumed. At that time, the domestic PP supply will increase significantly, which will form a certain pressure on the price. It is expected that the PP (wire drawing) price may have a correction.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 14, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7833.33 yuan / ton. 64% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the supply and demand of domestic PP fiber material and drawing material are stable, and the operation situation is similar. It is reported that polypropylene will enter into production peak in the second half of this month. New production lines of Baolai petrochemical, Zhongke refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and Quanzhou of Sinochem are expected to start trial operation around the end of this month. Just after the peak maintenance season, the production of new equipment is bound to have an impact on PP prices. PP inventory of two barrels of oil rose this week, while social inventory decreased slightly compared with last week. PP (fiber) is expected to decline in the near future.

The market of PP melt blown materials continues to be weak. According to the price of business agency, the current domestic price of PP (melt blown) material continues to decline. As of August 14, the average quoted price of melt blown PP of melt index 1500 by sample enterprises is about 16300.00 yuan / ton. The epidemic situation in China was generally stable, and the supply of epidemic prevention related products exceeded demand, and most of the prices fell. Overseas demand is not decreasing, but manufacturers of epidemic prevention products are facing fierce competition. According to information, as of the beginning of July, the number of mask manufacturers in China has increased by 1200% to 74000. Industry competition is strong, and some even say it is “unprofitable”. In addition, the diversification of anti epidemic materials also has a certain dispersion on the demand for masks. The demand for PP (melt blown) is turning down rapidly. The business mentality is negative and the phenomenon of leaving the field is still more. It is expected that the melt blown materials will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: August second week domestic PP spot market trend slightly callback. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) and PP (fiber) are stable and small, PP (melt blown) demand is still weak, prices continue to callback. At present, the peak maintenance season has passed, and there are many new equipment put into production at the same time, which is detrimental to the supply side. Downstream factory stock situation is general, merchants actively shipping. PP futures recently put into production news to suppress the disk, the atmosphere has turned negative. PP spot price is expected to have a correction in the near future.