1、 Price trend

According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on October 29 was 5000 yuan / ton, up 1.01% compared with the beginning of the week, 2.74% on a month on month basis, 6.54% lower than the beginning of the year and 6.25% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, phosphoric acid market continued to rise with the rise of raw materials, but the range was not large. At present, the price of phosphoric acid market has been raised in many places, and most enterprises fluctuate in the range of 50-150 yuan / ton. Take anda chemical as an example, it has risen to 4850 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan. Other places also have different degrees of increase. At the same time, some enterprises have higher prices, so quotation is suspended and sales are relatively stable. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus is stable, but the enterprises intend to raise the price. With the normal period approaching, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have been increased. The production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises has increased, and the price has continued to rise. The phosphoric acid market is strongly supported by the cost side, and the price goes up gradually. However, the demand follow-up is insufficient, the industry has a lot of wait-and-see mood, and the enthusiasm of preparing goods is not high Transaction atmosphere is not warm, cautious procurement, future market also need to pay attention to the cost side.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of October 29, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5000 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4850-5400 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the transaction was stable; the price was about 4700 yuan / ton in Beijing, the price was temporarily stable; the price was about 4800-5050 yuan / ton in Hubei, the price was rising; the quotation in Tianjin was 5600 yuan / ton The price rises when the price is about RMB / ton; the price rises when the price is about 4700 yuan / ton in Jiangsu Province. Prices have risen steadily in various places.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content in East China: 85% OCT 29 5300-5400

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Southwest China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

The phosphoric acid industry chain rose more than fell less. On October 28, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 88.99, down 0.04 points compared with yesterday, 16.24% lower than 106.25 points (2012-03-22), and 14.68% higher than 77.60 points, the lowest point on July 2, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Yellow phosphorus, the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market rose this month. At present, the spot sales of yellow phosphorus market are basically normal, the spot is a little nervous, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The price in Yunnan increased rapidly, followed by Guizhou, and gradually increased in Sichuan. The normal water period is approaching, the electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan will be increased in the next month, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. However, there is a tight demand for phosphorus production in Sichuan. Yellow phosphorus is expected to remain bullish in the short term.

In the middle of October, the domestic Guizhou region led the overall upward trend of the national phosphate ore market, and the quotation of medium and low-grade phosphate ore increased one after another, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of mining enterprises is firm, and the downstream moderate orders are received. The market prices of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid are rising one after another, and the supply and demand remain stable. As of October 26, the domestic mainstream areas have 30% grade phosphate rock reference The average price was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as a week ago. Compared with October 1, the average price increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%.

Sulfuric acid, in late October, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. The price of sulfur in the upstream has been high recently, and the downstream market is good. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream for sulfuric acid is normal, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small shock rise.

At present, the raw material price of Monoammonium continues to rise, the cost is favorable to support, and the downstream demand increases. It is expected that monoammonium will continue to rise in the short term. At present, the supply of diammonium is tight, the international demand is stable temporarily, and the downstream fertilizer preparation is increasing. Diammonium is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society, the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the price of the raw material yellow phosphorus is rising continuously, the phosphoric acid market is supported by the cost side, the price continues to rise, and the focus of the negotiation continues to move closer to the high level, but the performance of the demand side is poor, and the industry has a strong outlook. The yellow phosphorus still has a bullish expectation next month, and it is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to follow the rise 。

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of ethyl acetate in October overlapped with good news, and the price rose sharply in the month. As of October 28, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 6532 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.12% compared with the beginning of the month.

The domestic ethyl acetate market continued to rise this month, mainly affected by two aspects: on the one hand, the prices of raw materials acetic acid and ethanol were running at a high level, and the cost side support was good; on the other hand, due to the strong demand in the downstream end market, the market supply was in short supply, and the enterprises had a strong intention to support prices. At present, it is about 6650 yuan / ton in East China, 6500 yuan / ton in North China and 6700 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market showed a strong performance, the supply and demand in the industry was in a tight balance state, domestic demand and export orders increased significantly, enterprise inventory dropped to a low level, and enterprises gradually increased the ex factory prices. The ethanol market is strong and upward, corn prices continue to rise, and the production costs of manufacturers have increased significantly. Some enterprises in the industry have caused the market supply to decline due to the maintenance of some enterprises. Under the situation that there are not many spot stocks in the market, the price of ethanol continues to rise. At present, ethanol in East China is about 6887 yuan / ton.

The international market price of ethyl acetate is stable. At present, the port price in European market is about 840-880 euro / ton; in North America, the port price is about 740 US dollars / ton.

According to the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club, there are many favorable supports for the domestic ethyl acetate Market, and the short-term favorable factors still exist. Although the price of ethyl acetate has reached a high level, the terminal purchase is still good. With the continuous decline of enterprise inventory, the manufacturers have good intention to support the price, and it is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will be stable in a short period of time.

According to the statistics of business agency, as of October 27, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was 15466 yuan / ton, up 4.74% compared with October 1, and 13.27% lower than that on October 1; the price of nylon POY was 13080 yuan / ton, 4.31% higher than that on October 1, and 15.72% lower than that on October 1; the price of nylon FDY was 16250 yuan / ton, 4.17% higher than that on October 1, and 17.51% lower than that on October 1.

In October, orders improved, and the high price of nylon industry chain was difficult to cool down. As of the 27th, the average price of pure benzene was 3600 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.51% in the same month, but the initial signs of correction appeared at the end of October. In terms of cyclohexanone, although the price has increased, the increase is general. On the one hand, the price support of raw material end is fair, and the transaction of downstream caprolactam is also hot. Many enterprises of caprolactam can be overhauled or reduced, and the supply is reduced, which has a certain drag on the rise of cyclohexanone. With the disappearance of the replenishment peak period, the sales of PA6 high-speed spinning chips are under pressure. After the resumption of work in October, the short fiber and yarn wrapping enterprises are more active in replenishment, which has not lasted for a long time. Recently, the trend of trading has weakened, and some businesses have lowered their prices.

Raw materials still remain high, nylon filament manufacturers basically do not act. In mid October, the nylon market ushered in a price rise. On the one hand, the continuous trading limit of polyester staple fiber has played a leading role in the recovery of textile market, and textile raw materials generally go up. On the other hand, foreign textile orders are transferred to China, and the purchasing demand is picking up. However, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in September 2020, China’s textile and clothing export volume was 28.377 billion US dollars, a decrease of 8.24% month on month. At the same time, staple fiber futures sharply callback, cotton prices fall, the actual order support is general, capital participation makes the recent market is over interpreted. Filament manufacturers hold the price more, the action of price rise slows down, the raw material support is acceptable, and the merchants hold the price for shipment.

Business agency analysts believe that in the near future, nylon filament is mainly stable, some specifications have risen slightly, the transaction atmosphere has cooled, and the supply and demand pattern has changed. From the raw materials have signs of decline, filament is expected to have a downward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1883 yuan / ton on October 19, 1916 yuan / ton on October 28, and the price rose by 1.77% on October 10.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2313 yuan / ton on October 19, and 2356 yuan / ton on October 28. The price rose by 1.87% on October 10.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of monoammonium phosphate has risen, and the operating rate of enterprises is about 67%. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 60% powdered ammonium is 2100-2200 yuan / ton. The stable operation of Henan market, 55% ammonium powder factory quotation of 1900 yuan / ton, stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

Recently, the price of diammonium phosphate has risen, and the operating rate of enterprises is about 50%. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2250-2350 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2250-2350 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2250-2450 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

At present, the reference average price of 30% grade of raw material phosphorus ore in domestic mainstream areas is around 386.67 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as a week ago. At present, the quotation of mining enterprises is firm, and the downstream is moderately receiving orders. The price of raw material sulfur continued to rise, and the transaction atmosphere was good.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that at present, the price of raw materials of Monoammonium continues to rise, the cost is favorable to support, and the downstream demand increases. It is expected that monoammonium will continue to rise in the short term. At present, the supply of diammonium is tight, the international demand is stable temporarily, and the downstream fertilizer preparation is increasing. Diammonium is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

In recent years, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide has maintained stable operation without obvious change. As of October 28, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Tuesday, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of business club’s bulk list. At present, the demand for industrial grade lithium hydroxide is stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the market. On October 27, the commodity index of lithium hydroxide was 130.16, unchanged with yesterday, 65.88% lower than the highest point of 381.48 (2016-09-12) and 30.16% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 04, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

According to customs statistics, in September 2020, China’s import volume of lithium hydroxide was 5.66 tons, the import amount of that month was about 60000 US dollars, and the average import price of that month was 11292.73 US dollars / ton. According to customs statistics, China’s export volume of lithium hydroxide in September 2020 was 5150.64 tons, the export amount of that month was about 43.65 million US dollars, and the average export price of that month was 8475.48 US dollars / ton.

Upstream lithium carbonate, in October, the overall market price of lithium carbonate in East China was in a stable state, and the quoted prices of enterprises were mostly stable. As of October 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39500 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 39500 yuan / ton on October 1). On October 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (October 1: the average price of carbon in East China was 44200 yuan / ton). This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 36000-40000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 40000-45000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market has a stable trend in the near future, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the superimposed demand side. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic local refiners’ petroleum coke products is temporarily stable. On October 28, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1495.75 yuan / ton, and the price remained high, up 28.03% year-on-year. On October 27, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 116.34, unchanged with yesterday, 25.23% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 73.93% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke is high, and the operation is stable temporarily. The supply of overhaul goods of manufacturers is less. Some medium sulfur coke manufacturers have raised the price by 20-30 yuan per ton. In addition, the output of local refineries has increased or decreased, so the speed of production improvement is slow.

Upstream: in the context of weak demand, whether the oil price can be stable or not, the market still pays more attention to the production reduction policies of OPEC + oil producing countries. Although OPEC + is still in the implementation period of the production reduction agreement, and the implementation strength has been commendable for a time, the oil market is looking for a rebalancing pattern after the demand has cooled again. It is unlikely that OPEC + will continue to increase its efforts on the basis of the current production reduction. Moreover, there are big differences within the organization, and it is difficult to reach a new consensus agreement in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be downward risks in oil prices in the near future.

Downstream: in the near future, the price of carbon in the downstream is stable, the price of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the demand side of petroleum coke has stable support. However, in the later stage, there is limited room for carbon price rise.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the overall supply of petroleum coke is relatively tight, showing a good situation, and the maintenance of some manufacturers is good for the formation of petroleum coke. Comprehensively, the short-term or high-level consolidation trend of petroleum coke is mainly expected, and the specific demand of downstream market.

Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on October 27 was 43.07, up 1.18 points compared with yesterday, 56.93% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 57.88% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

So far this month, natural rubber futures and spot are on the way. Shanghai Rubber: the 01 contract rose from 12600 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month to 15725 yuan / ton on the 27th. So far, it has risen by 3375 yuan / ton, up 26.78%. Spot rubber: according to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton on October 1, and 14600 yuan / ton on October 27, a sharp increase of 23.81%. Among them, the highest price this month is 14600 yuan / ton on the 27th, and the lowest is 11792.5 yuan / ton during the National Day holiday, which is a typical rising trend along the way.

New rubber output: Southeast Asia: affected by frequent rainfall weather, new rubber in Southeast Asia is blocked. Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and other major global suppliers are affected by the heavy rain, resulting in production problems. Thailand and other places continue to rain. In 2020, due to the epidemic situation, drought and other factors, the production of raw materials in rubber production areas at home and abroad will slow down and production reduction is inevitable. In recent months, Thailand and other places have been affected by rainfall. In addition, the reduction of foreign labor during the epidemic period has made Thailand’s rubber output more tense. At the same time, the demand for medical gloves has increased significantly, the demand for latex is good, and the output of cigarette rubber is reduced The price is high due to the tight supply of raw materials. Not only the price of natural rubber has been increased last month, but also the supply of goods in this month is short and the price continues to rise. Among them, India’s rubber production is expected to be good due to good rainfall, and due to the rapid growth of China’s demand, as of the 25th, the price of rss4 grade rubber in Indian market rose to 149 rupees per kilogram, and the quotation of RSS3 grade cigarette rubber at parity with rss4 rubber was 242.1 US dollars (17850 Rupees) per 100 kg. China: at present, the tapping work in China’s domestic area is normal, but it is learned that the new rubber is only digested in the factory after it is produced, and the new tapping volume is not enough to support the market circulation, and the supply side is still tight; although the market demand for domestic rubber is not as urgent as that when the previous index glue is not opened, and the price of rubber imported from abroad is low, so the domestic market relies heavily on overseas rubber The influence factor of this situation is the shortage of domestic rubber. Traders have to turn to foreign rubber, and Xishuangbanna is more dependent on cloud elephant emulsion in Laos and other places. It is reported that the rubber tapping in Hainan is still affected by the weather, the output is small, supporting the price upward. Some data show that by the end of September 2020, the cumulative rubber production will be 426500 tons, 102800 tons less than the same period in 2019, and 99100 tons less than that in 2018.

Import and export: in terms of China’s situation, in August 2020, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 699000 tons, an increase of 30% over the same period last year; from January to August, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 4.508 million tons, an increase of 8.2% compared with 4.166 million tons in the same period of 2019. Thailand: in September 2020, Thailand exported 2017300 tons of rubber, a decrease of 8.2% compared with the same period last year, worth US $250 million, a decrease of 12.2%. A total of 1895328 tons of rubber were exported in nine months, with a value of 2.368 billion US dollars.

In terms of inventory: as of October 23, 2020, the natural rubber inventory of the Institute was 243925 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 221520 tons, which decreased by 2165 tons and increased by 9490 tons; the inventory of rubber No.20 was 39565 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 35331 tons, increasing 273 tons and decreasing 333 tons respectively; the natural rubber futures inventory decreased in the previous period, while the warehouse receipt inventory increased significantly, while the 20 rubber inventory increased while the warehouse receipt decreased.

Downstream demand: first of all, the operating rate of tire manufacturers continued to rise. On the basis of the increase in September, the operating rate of downstream enterprises continued to rise compared with the month on month. According to the data, as of October 23, 2020, the start-up load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 75.32%, a slight increase of 0.63 percentage points compared with last week and a rise of 9.92 percentage points over the same period of last year. The operating load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 70.81%, 0.6% higher than last week and 3.36% higher than that of the same period last year. The export of heavy truck tires and the supporting high bearing show that the overall operation situation of tire manufacturers continues to improve. Secondly, tire sales continued to improve. According to customs data, in September, China’s tire export volume maintained a double growth on the same month; in September, China’s rubber tire export volume was 650000 tons, with a month on month increase of 20000 tons, a significant increase of 16.7% year-on-year. In the same month, the export volume of rubber tires was 9.811 billion yuan, up 7.6% year on year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 630000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; the export volume was 9.352 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. In September, the number of new pneumatic rubber tires exported was 47.88 million, with a month on month increase of 1.54 million, and a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The data showed that the consumption of downstream tires increased sharply and the conditions for price upward were sufficient. Thirdly, car sales are in good condition. In September, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.524 million and 2.655 million, respectively, up 14.1% and 12.9% year-on-year. Affected by the growth of automobile sales, the production of rubber tire increased greatly. On October 19, the National Bureau of statistics released economic data for the first three quarters. With the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, the production and sales of automobiles in China increased by 19.1% and 17.4% respectively in September, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and 12.8%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales volume of commercial vehicles were 479000 and 477000 respectively, with a sharp increase of 39.0% and 40.3% year-on-year. Automobile production and sales recovered strongly, and the domestic tire market maintained a good development momentum. Fourth, tire prices have risen. The prices of natural rubber, carbon black, steel cord and other raw materials of tire were raised in the third quarter due to the upward trend of natural rubber price. After entering the fourth quarter, the price of natural rubber went up all the way in this month, the cost of tire manufacturers continued to increase, and the price rise tide of tire enterprises was set off again. As of October 22, outlets tire, Wanli tire, Aeolus tire and other enterprises have announced that they will start to increase product prices in October and November, with the increase range from 2% to 4%.

Hot spots of this month:

Thailand: on October 21, Nakorn tangavirapat, head of the rubber Bureau of Thailand (raot), said on Wednesday that the price of rubber is expected to rise to THB 67 per kilogram soon as China’s demand increases, while rubber supply falls due to frequent rainfall in the South and labor shortage during the outbreak. Nakorn believes that the government’s policy of supporting loans to rubber growers will help them hire more workers to improve harvesting capacity and rubber production. The project was implemented in May this year and will end in April 2022 with a budget of 20 billion baht. These loans should ultimately help stabilize the rubber market price.

Thailand reported on October 26 that Thailand’s export of latex gloves increased by 154.9% in September 2020, and 61.4% from January to September this year. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is not yet fully improved, and some markets are not confident of importing latex gloves from China. Orders for latex gloves from Thailand are scheduled for 2021. It is estimated that the rubber price will exceed 70 baht / kg in November. In addition to the above factors, the business matching work jointly carried out by the rubber administration of Thailand, the Ministry of Commerce and the private sector has led to 69 pairs of trade cooperation, and the global economy has begun to recover, which is also the reason for the substantial growth of Thailand’s latex glove export. But at the same time, there are also some negative factors that need to be paid attention to. For example, the high price of rubber may lead to the suspension of buying in the rubber futures market, which will have an impact on the rubber price and affect the income of rubber farmers. Therefore, the Thai rubber authority should take measures in advance, such as purchasing rubber from 108 markets subordinate to the rubber authority, and keeping glue for rubber farmers to slow down the entry of glue into the market Decide which measure to take according to the market situation.

India: India reported on October 26 that as of October 25, the price of rss4 grade rubber in the Indian market rose to 149 rupees per kilogram, and the price of RSS3 grade cigarette rubber was US $242.1 (17850 Rupees) per 100kg, due to the growing demand of China and supply problems faced by major rubber producing countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia. N Radhakrishnan, former president of India’s Cochin rubber Traders Association, said the rise in Indian rubber prices had nothing to do with its domestic progress. Rajiv buddhraja, President of the automobile tire manufacturers association (Atma), said China’s purchases in the global market had risen sharply, pushing up global prices.

U.S.: the U.S. Department of Commerce has agreed to postpone the publication date of the preliminary findings to determine whether passenger / light truck tires sold in the U.S. are sold at less than fair prices to December 29, AP reported. At the request of the United Steelworkers union (USW), the petitioner in the case, the Commerce Department agreed to extend the deadline by 50 days. USW said that due to the “complexity” of collecting the required information, the Ministry of Commerce was unable to collect “complete responses and sufficient information” by the original deadline of November 9. By agreeing to postpone the deadline for publication of the preliminary ruling, the Ministry of Commerce has automatically postponed the date of the final ruling by the same number of days, from late January to mid March.

Europe: the European Union’s passenger car market grew for the first time in 2020 in September, according to data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers on the 16th. In September, the number of new car registrations across the EU increased by 3.1% year-on-year to 933987. Despite the positive results of car sales in September, the impact of the epidemic still has a significant impact on the European car market, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Among the major markets, the number of new car registrations in Spain, Italy, France and Germany decreased by 38.3%, 34.2%, 28.9% and 25.5% respectively in the first nine months.

ANRPC: according to the association of natural rubber producers (ANRPC), the total output of natural rubber from January to September totaled 7797.1 thousand tons, down 7.3% year-on-year. Among them, in September 2020, China’s natural rubber production was about 111.4 kilotons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% and a month on month increase of 11.4%; from January to September, the total production of natural rubber accumulated 426.5 thousand tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Meanwhile, the cumulative production of natural rubber in Thailand decreased by 2.04%, Indonesia by 13.18%, Malaysia by 11.54%, Vietnam by 5.06% and India by 3.31%.

About the aftermarket: in China, the demand for rubber has increased rapidly, and the rubber price of Southeast Asian rubber producing countries has risen recently. The main influencing factor is China’s demand factor. In the global natural rubber due to weather, epidemic situation and other factors, production reduction is not only inevitable, but also the situation may be grim because of the weather. The natural rubber market is characterized by a rebound in downstream demand, a large increase in export volume, and a slow output of new rubber. In the current “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season, the natural rubber market has obvious upward support, rapid growth and large increase. According to the current market analysis, after the proper adjustment of natural rubber, there is still a possibility of rising; considering the recent favorable fundamentals of natural rubber raw materials and downstream demand, as well as the epidemic situation, international political situation and other possible negative factors, we think that natural rubber is likely to rise, but at present, there are few spot rubber transactions in the market, there is no market price, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and downstream procurement is sincere Careful, weak support.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market continued to decline slightly this week. As of Friday, the average price in the domestic market was about 3380 yuan / ton, down 0.88% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China will lower the listed price of toluene by about 50 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is still high, and the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. The market is oversupply, the downstream blended oil and solvent demand is general, the price is slightly weak, and there has been a slight fluctuation in recent years, and there is no improvement. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, the recent crude oil market volatility is weak, this week international crude oil prices fell. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.415/barrel to close at $41.235/barrel, down 1% from last week. Analysts and traders are bearish on the outlook for crude oil next week, according to fx168′s weekly financial market survey released on Saturday (October 24). In addition, the world bank said in its latest half year commodity market outlook report that although energy prices have rebounded, they are expected to stabilize below the pre epidemic level. The average price of crude oil in 2021 is US $44 per barrel, higher than US $41 per barrel in 2020.

Downstream, TDI continued a small decline trend this week, with the implementation of 16500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be shaken, and the downstream follow-up will be insufficient. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk was about 533 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 551 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will maintain a small fluctuation trend.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will remain weak and stable next week.

From October 19 to 23, 2020, the market price of antimony ingot in East China will rise, with 41500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 42000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.20%.

On October 25, the antimony commodity index was 58.47, unchanged with yesterday, down 42.86% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 24.46% higher than 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. Note: from 2012 to 08.

This week, domestic antimony ingot market continued to rise, with an average increase of 500 yuan / ton. It is mainly due to the fact that there are still few imported ore ends from abroad, the domestic raw materials are tight, the price of antimony products is relatively high, and the price of antimony products is relatively high. Domestic manufacturers mainly support the price. In addition, the environmental protection and production restriction in the surrounding areas of the main production areas have affected the domestic output to a certain extent, and the supply of antimony ingots is slightly tense. Double positive blessing, antimony ingot market price went up. By the end of the 23rd, the average price of 2-piece low bismuth antimony ingot was 40750 yuan / ton, that of 1-piece antimony ingot was 41750 yuan / ton, and that of 0-antimony ingot was 42250 yuan / ton. The average price of 2-piece high-quality bismuth antimony ingot was 40250 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton higher than last week. The market price of antimony trioxide increased with the trend of antimony ingot. By the end of the week, 99.5% of the average price of antimony trioxide was 37500 yuan / ton, 99.8% was at 39000 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton higher than last week’s price.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 42 th week (10.19-10.23) of 2020, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal plate with a month on month increase, and the top three commodities were titanium concentrate (4.62%), magnesium (3.10%) and zinc (2.79%). There were 6 kinds of commodities falling month on month. The top three products were praseodymium metal (- 3.82%), praseodymium oxide (- 1.55%) and cobalt (- 0.98%). This week, all rose or fell 0.66%. Most of the non-ferrous commodities rose this week.

The business agency believes that under the tight supply and demand of antimony products and the cost pressure, there is still room for growth in the future.

After stepping into the traditional “silver ten”, propane peak season effect is obvious. After the 11 small holidays, propane prices have been pushed up to 4000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average market price of propane was 3277.50 yuan / ton on October 8 and 3737.50 yuan / ton on October 23, with an increase rate of 14.04% and an increase of 8.10% compared with September 1.

In October, propane Market showed a continuous upward trend. Most of the ex factory prices in Shandong market have risen to about 3800 yuan / ton. At present, the market trend is still strong, breaking through the 4000 yuan / ton mark is close at hand. With the advent of the traditional sales season, the rise is expected. In the international market, the high import cost has brought support to the market. After the festival, the weather dropped significantly, the temperature dropped, the terminal demand increased, and the downstream replenishment cycle shortened, which brought obvious benefits to the market. In terms of supply, domestic refineries partially overhauled in October, and the market supply decreased, which also brought some support to the market. The mentality of the downstream is good and the enthusiasm of entering the market is high. Manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory is mostly at a low level, strong mentality, prices continue to push up. Strong bullish attitude towards the future market, positive market entry, good atmosphere for market transactions. Refinery mentality is firm, continuously increase factory prices, inventory is mostly in low level.

Although the domestic propane market is on the rise as a whole, there are still differences between the South and North markets. Due to the obvious cooling of the weather in the northern market, the demand has increased substantially, and the price has been mainly pushed up. The rise of the southern market was not as obvious as that of the northern market. During this period, some of them fell, but in the later stage, with multiple favorable conditions, it entered the upward channel. As of October 23, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification October 23

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3350-3600 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3710-3750 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95.3650-3750 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 953700-3750 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953800-3950 yuan / ton

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco released CP in October 2020, with propane at 375 USD / T, up by 10 USD / T compared with last month, and butane at 380 USD / T, up by 25 USD / T compared with last month. Near the end of the month, CP will be released in November, and the current expectation is rising, which is good for the market mentality.

At present, the international crude oil shows a downward trend, which brings some restraint to the rising market. The demand side and supply side support the price rise one after another. The current peak season effect is obvious. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is better, the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, the inventory is mostly maintained at a low level, and the mentality is mostly firm. It is expected that the propane market will still rise in the future.