Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market continued to run strongly in November, and various models of products increased significantly. As of December 1, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 29800 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.57% compared with the average price level in early November.

In terms of adipic acid upstream of PA66, the domestic adipic acid market continued its upward trend in October in November. According to the monitoring of business agency, the general quotation range of adipic acid market is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, which is 18% higher than the average price at the end of October. The main reason is the cost side pull brought by the repeatedly high price of pure benzene. From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in November, about 80% or more. The market supply of adipic acid was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers usually take the goods normally, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is not big, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the distribution link. Therefore, the dealers are forced by the inventory pressure in the late November, and the quotation is slightly loose. At the end of November, the market stabilized mainly because the market returned to fundamentals. At present, with the winter approaching, the downstream operating rate may decline, and the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. Adipic acid is expected to be stable in the near future, and the possibility of falling back is not ruled out.

The upstream adipic acid has support for the cost of PA66. In November, the market of PA66 continued its previous positive trend with a large increase. The situation of spot shortage in the domestic spot market has not improved. Although it is reported that the operating rate of Huafeng in Zhejiang Province has increased, the overall operating rate of domestic production lines is not high, and the mentality of factories to support the market is still strong. Inventory is generally low, new goods are mainly supplied to contract old customers, and on-site supply may be even more tight than expected. In addition, the favorable effect of price increase letters issued by BASF, DuPont and other major international manufacturers is still in effect. At the beginning of the month, aoshengde announced the price increase of intermediate products. In the middle of the month, landic also issued a notice on the price increase of PA66 products. For a time, the prices of PA66 products and related raw materials in the industrial chain could not go down. The replenishment operation of downstream factories is biased towards rigid demand, among which the consumption of PA66 in the automobile industry is better, and the household appliance industry also has certain support for the demand. From the end of the last ten days to the end of the month, the transaction focus of PA66 market is mainly high and firm.

Business agency analysts believe: PA66 domestic market in November strong trend. The price of upstream products was strong after rising, which supported PA66 cost side strongly. The downstream just needs to operate. Although it is against the high price goods, the spot is in short supply, the price is rising, and the terminal is passively following up. At present, the demand is fair. In the last ten days, the increase of PA66 gradually narrowed. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of PA66 will continue its high and strong trend.

Trade name: naphtha

Latest price (November 30, 2020): 1542.75 yuan / ton

Analysis points: international crude oil rose sharply, supporting the cost of petroleum coke. It is understood that WTI crude oil price is 45.53 USD / barrel. At present, the supply of local refining petroleum coke is increasing, and the downstream environmental protection and other factors have reduced the demand for petroleum coke, and the downstream receiving intention is general. Today, the price of coke rises and falls.

Aftermarket forecast: it is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the mainland will be stable in the short term.

Price list of aluminum ingot

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on November 30 was 16786.67 yuan / ton, up 13.09% compared with the average price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1), 15.35% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 11230 yuan / ton, up 49.39%.

In November, the price of aluminum ingots hit a new high in the year, mainly due to macro factors & good supply and demand orientation;

In November, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) was signed, adding that the domestic economy has maintained an over expected growth rate or will become the only country with positive growth in the main economy. The news of the success of vaccines in overseas countries offsets the current deterioration of overseas epidemic situation. In the medium term, it is expected to strengthen in the medium term and boost the expectation of foreign industrial demand. In terms of policy, large-scale international stimulus policies are expected The period is still in, ignite the enthusiasm of funds to do long colored plate.

China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 (51.4) in November, the highest since October 2017, and remained in the expansion range for nine consecutive months. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53, 52, and 50.1, respectively, which was 0.4, 1.4 and 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the PMI of small enterprises returned to the top of the dry and prosperous line. From the perspective of the sub index, the production index rose to 54.7 (previous value 53.9), the new order index recorded 53.9, 1.1 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the new export order index recorded 51.5 (previous value 51), rebounded for seven consecutive months, reaching a new high since 2018.

In November, the commodity supply and demand index (BCI) of the business association was 0.63, with an average increase of 6.67%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy in the month was expanding compared with the previous month, and the economic growth trend was obvious. It is reported that this is the expansion state of BCI for seven consecutive months since it turned from negative to positive in May.

The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to move down. At present, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has dropped below 600000 tons. The domestic downstream demand is strong, and the supply and demand are oriented well. On the other hand, the investment in domestic manufacturing industry has risen steadily. With the influence of the news of vaccine progress, overseas market is relatively lagging behind, and the expectation of more market is temporarily formed.

In November, the risk preference of market funds rose, and the overall unilateral upward trend of other domestic markets such as stock market and futures market was more significant. The linkage between the future and the present will boost the price of aluminum. It is expected that the aluminum price will be better in the near future, and attention should be paid to prevent the impact of long profit taking and sharp increase of import volume on domestic aluminum price.

According to business agency data, on November 30, the spot price of gold was 368.49 yuan / g, down 7.27% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (11.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 7.58%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 11.07%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver was 448 yuan / g , down 17.75%.

On November 30, the average price of silver market was 4646.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 6.08% compared with the average price of 4947.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month (November 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4376.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.18%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 57.91%; compared with the peak price of 8.11, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / thousand yuan G, down 30.73%.

Risk aversion subsided and optimism rose

In November, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) was signed, adding that the domestic economy has maintained an over expected growth rate or will become the only country with positive growth in the main economy. The news of the success of vaccines in overseas countries offsets the current deterioration of overseas epidemic situation. In the medium term, it is expected to strengthen in the medium term and boost the expectation of foreign industrial demand. In terms of policy, large-scale international stimulus policies are expected Period is still in, ignite funds to do long commodity enthusiasm.

China’s official manufacturing PMI for November, released this morning, rose to 52.1 (previous value 51.4), the highest since October 2017, and remained in the expansion range for nine consecutive months. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53, 52, and 50.1, respectively, which was 0.4, 1.4 and 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the PMI of small enterprises returned to the top of the dry and prosperous line. From the perspective of the sub index, the production index rose to 54.7 (previous value 53.9), the new order index recorded 53.9, 1.1 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the new export order index recorded 51.5 (previous value 51), rebounded for seven consecutive months, reaching a new high since 2018.

The data of business associations also showed that the commodity supply and demand index (BCI) in November was 0.63, with an average increase of 6.67%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy in the month was expanding compared with the previous month, and the economic growth trend was obvious. It is reported that this is the expansion state of BCI for seven consecutive months since it turned from negative to positive in May.

The domestic macro data is better, and the market is optimistic.

And good news from overseas vaccines has greatly weakened the biggest source of risk aversion sentiment in the market this year. Since the peak value of precious metal prices reached in the middle and early August, some profit-making funds have begun to operate steadily in the third quarter of 2020, including some central banks, such as Uzbekistan and Turkey.

According to the world gold association, in the third quarter of 2020, central banks sold 12 tons of gold, the second quarter in nearly 10 years. In the third quarter of 2020, the total global gold ETF positions reached a new record of 3880.0 tons, of which the net inflow in the third quarter was 272.5 tons. The growth rate of gold ETF positions in the third quarter was lower than that in the first half of the year.

After the third quarter, the investment fever of precious metals has actually begun to slow down. The current round of Dayang market driven by investment demand has started to divert.

After the price of precious metals moved down, the overall price of precious metals fluctuated from late September to the end of October. In November, the risk preference of capital in the market rose. Other domestic markets, such as the stock market and futures market, showed a significant unilateral upward trend, and the price of precious metals was under more pressure.

Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

On November 30, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will be strong, with the overall range of 13500-13900 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 13600-13700 yuan / ton; that in Taiyuan area is 13700-13800 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 13800-13900 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 13600-13700 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot on November 30 was 13600 yuan / ton, which was 7.23% higher than the average price of 12683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 10.27% higher than the average price of 12333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 4.00%.

From January to September, the price of magnesium fell continuously

Affected by the epidemic situation, the export of magnesium ingots is not smooth, and the demand of downstream automobile industry is weak in the first half of the year. The demand for new magnesium alloy is weak, and the price of magnesium falls continuously from January to September. (Note: the export proportion of domestic magnesium ingot is higher)

In the middle and late September, the price of magnesium ingot hit the bottom. It is reported that the average price in the third quarter dropped to 12700 yuan / ton, with a 3.3% month on month decrease and 14.7% year-on-year decrease. Magnesium smelting profit (after tax) fell to the low level of 775 yuan / ton, down 60.3% compared with the beginning of the year.

The price of magnesium began to rise in recent two months

In October, the influencing factors of cost side factors were enlarged, the price was low, the profit was meager, the magnesium plant’s willingness to stand up for price rose, and the price was tentatively raised for shipment; then, the long short game intensified and the platform operated in shock.

In the middle of November, foreign orders were purchased intensively, and the number of inquiries increased. The second round of rebound market started. After nearly two weeks of pulling up, the market gradually entered the stage of long short stalemate. Market trading performance slowed down compared with the previous period, and downstream customers began to operate cautiously.

Future forecast

The price rebounded slightly. At the current price, the early hoarders have a high willingness to ship goods and the long short game is intensified. However, in recent years, nonferrous metals have skyrocketed, the magnesium aluminum ratio has decreased, and the promotion and utilization of magnesium alloys in the downstream are beneficial. It is expected that the operation probability will increase in the near future, with the fluctuation range of 13500-14000 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price continued to rise sharply, and the market price followed the upward trend. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on November 27 was 5321 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from the beginning of the week; on November 27, the price of diesel oil was 4717 yuan / ton, up 1.82% from the beginning of the week.

In November, the international oil price continued to push up, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the weather turned cold and the number of car trips increased, which had a certain boosting effect on the gasoline market demand. In addition, the international oil price rose sharply, the market transaction atmosphere turned better, and the gasoline price rose slightly. In terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather was getting colder, and the outdoor diesel demand for road engineering and infrastructure construction was gradually declining. The southern rush to work a year ago was good for diesel demand. Under the guidance of the price difference, northern diesel oil was promoted The increase in the outflow of oil resources has a certain support for the overall diesel market price.

As of November 20, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery remained at a high level, and the domestic product oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the national oil price has risen to a periodic high, and the epidemic situation has not improved, so the upward trend of oil price can be described as a lot of resistance. At the same time, the demand for refined oil market is not good in substance. In the short term, the market price of refined oil is expected to fall steadily.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 27, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 9133.33 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic DMF market price was running smoothly, and the atmosphere of negotiation was flat, which was 13.02% lower than that of the same period last month, In November, the market of DMF was in a weak position. Compared with the price in October, the overall operation of DMF was stable and the focus of negotiation was stable.

This week, the DMF market is running smoothly, the negotiation focus is stable, the enthusiasm for buying and selling is general, the downstream inventory pressure is still remaining, the shipment volume is slow, and the purchasing gas is insufficient. As of November 27, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 8800 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue 8900 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 9700 yuan / ton, East China market 8950-9200 yuan / ton, South China market 9300-9450 yuan / ton, the upstream trend is flat Stable, no obvious favorable support.

The upstream methanol has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the purchase of just needed methanol is given priority to. The negotiation range of Shandong methanol Lubei market is between 1960-1980 yuan / T, and it is delivered to spot exchange. The market price of methanol in southern Shandong Province dropped by 20 yuan / ton to 2030-2040 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of Linyi local goods dropped by 10 yuan / ton to 2020-2030 yuan / ton, and there was no quotation for logistics goods. The transaction of methanol market in central Shandong was stable to 2150 yuan / ton, and the transaction of peripheral goods was up to 1970-1980 yuan / ton.

On November 26, the chemical index was 858 points, unchanged with yesterday, 15.55% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 43.48% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the DMF market runs smoothly and the focus of negotiation is stable. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the data of business agency, as of November 27, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 3737.50 yuan / ton (including tax), a slight increase of 2.75% compared with the beginning of the week.

On November 27, the fuel oil commodity index was 75.70, up 1.52 points compared with yesterday, 34.69% lower than 115.91 points (October 17, 2018), and 64.28% higher than 46.08 points, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, as of November 27, the self raised low sulfur price of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan, 3800 yuan / ton in 120 CST, 3750 yuan / ton in Shanghai and 3850 yuan / ton in 120 CST.

International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, supporting fuel oil prices. WTI crude oil closed at US $45.71/barrel on the 27th, up 7.76% from US $42.42/barrel at the beginning of the week.

Singapore’s fuel stocks increased and support for fuel oil weakened. It is understood that Singapore Enterprise Development Council (ESG): in the week ending November 25, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 2.036 million barrels to 24.038 million barrels, a five week high.

Aftermarket forecast: the energy analysts of business agency believe that crude oil rose sharply, and the raw material cost of fuel oil 180CST was supported, but the downstream demand was weak. Generally speaking, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products continued to fall. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1636.50 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 154.25 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 5.88% and a year-on-year increase of 55.19%. On November 27, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 119.80, down 0.97 points from yesterday, 23.00% from 155.59 points (2018-01-25), 79.10% higher than 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The decline in the price of petroleum coke is mainly due to increased supply. The price of low sulfur coke is firm and the demand is stable. In terms of medium and high sulfur, the operating rate of coking units has increased, and the supply has increased. Affected by the heating season, the downstream carbon enterprises shut down and reduce production. The demand is general, and the downstream receiving intention is general. In order to stimulate the shipment, refineries choose to sell at a reduced price.

Upstream: in November, the international oil price continued to rise, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

Downstream: affected by environmental factors in heating season, the carbon market is facing production reduction and shutdown in the near future; the price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream continues to rise; the price of silicon metal market is steadily rising due to the reduction of production and furnace shutdown in the southern region, and the social supply is gradually reduced, and the price may rise steadily; in terms of steam coal, the downstream purchase enthusiasm is higher, the port coal is better transferred out, and the growth rate of coal supply in the production area is limited, The coal inventory in northern ports has been growing slowly, and the price of coal and coal transportation has been rising steadily. In winter heating season, the power plant still needs to replenish the storage of steam coal. The short-term price of steam coal is expected to rise.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 47th week of 2020 (11.23-11.27), among which there are 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the total commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities of increase are liquefied natural gas (8.51%), WTI crude oil (7.76%) and Brent crude oil (6.29%). There were two kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products were petroleum coke (- 5.88%) and methanol (- 0.35%). This week, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the current supply of petroleum coke is increasing, and the downstream environmental protection and other factors have reduced the demand for petroleum coke, and the downstream receiving intention is general. In order to stimulate the shipment, refineries choose to sell at a reduced price. It is expected that the petroleum coke will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton for 50% powder and 2650 yuan / ton for 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder. The supply and sales of potash in Xinjiang SDIC were normal, with 52% powder arriving at the station price of 2740 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last week; the station price of 50% powder of Qinghai water salt system was about 2475 yuan / ton, increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. Processing type potassium sulfate is supported by a certain raw material cost, and now it is mainly based on a single discussion and replenishment on demand. The ex factory price of 50% powder Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 50% Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2650 yuan / ton, and the price has little change from last week.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club potassium sulfate analysts believe: potassium sulfate Market smooth operation, the overall inventory pressure is small. The strong price of potassium chloride forms a favorable support, and the later demand is waiting for release, and the future market is expected to remain stable.