1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, China’s domestic PA6 market fell from a high level in March, and the spot price had a correction. As of the press time on March 17, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 15633.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.88% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 17.25% compared with the same period of last month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, caprolactam domestic market recently also began to callback, and individual spot prices fell significantly. The average offer price of sample enterprises of business cooperatives was about 13733.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.98% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a month on month increase of 19.77% compared with the same period in February. On the supply side, Luxi Chemical had unplanned capacity loss, and the domestic spot accumulation was not prominent. However, the operating rate of downstream plants has declined, caprolactam can not bear the pressure of weakening demand and fall, caprolactam market is expected to continue to adjust downward in the short term.

The price of raw material caprolactam callback weakened the cost support of PA6. In the early stage, PA6 was boosted by the tightening supply of the international crude oil and chemical industry chain. At present, the supply side is more abundant than before, and the downstream plants buy as they use, so the purchasing enthusiasm is not good. The overall inventory of polymerization plant showed an upward trend, and the accumulation speed of some models of products was faster. Recently, the merchants are still more active in shipping, and the low price supply forces the manufacturers to reduce the load.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of business news agency think: Recently, the caprolactam load of PA6 upstream is high and the price is low, which weakens the cost support of PA6. Just take delivery of PA6, there is no market demand in the downstream. On the whole, the fundamentals of PA6 are strong at present, and it is expected that the price of PA6 will continue to decrease slightly.

Last week (3.8-12), the domestic ethyl acetate Market was mainly stable. After a sharp rise in late February, the high price fell in early March. At present, the price has stabilized. According to the monitoring of the business society, the production price of ethyl acetate in East China was 8925 yuan / ton, up or down to 0 last week.

In terms of the upstream acetic acid market, it has also stepped out of the stable market after falling from a high level. The cost support is weakened. The current price of acetic acid is still high, the market supply is slightly short, the downstream demand is stable, and the acetic acid market maintains a narrow high adjustment trend in the short term.

In the first week of this month, the price of ethyl acetate manufacturers in Shandong fell, but at present, the callback trend is basically in place. With the price of jinyimeng and other manufacturers rebounding after falling, the current price is running to a relatively high level, mainly due to the easing of supply pressure and the rigid demand. Supply side: in recent years, large plants have been running stably and the market supply is sufficient, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not obvious. Moreover, in terms of demand, with the recovery of economy, the terminal industry also showed warmth, the downstream operating rate gradually increased, and the purchasing capacity increased significantly compared with the previous month.

In the future, the price of ethyl acetate will be stable due to the stable supply and demand in the short term, and there should be little room for rise and fall.

Last week, driven by the crude oil end, the unilateral price of fuel oil experienced a trend of high inflation and then stabilized. As of Friday, the main Fu futures of high sulfur fuel oil futures recorded 2578 yuan / ton, up 6.1% on a month basis; meanwhile, the main force of low sulfur fuel oil futures recorded 3379 yuan / ton, up 2.7% on a month basis. The price difference between lu2105 and fu2105 cut to 786 yuan / ton last Thursday, down 73 yuan / ton on a month basis compared with the previous week. On the external market, Singapore’s high sulfur 380cst fuel oil swap M1 contract recorded $395 / T by Friday, up 2.1% on the previous week; meanwhile, Singapore’s marine0.5% fuel oil swap M1 contract recorded $513.5/t, up 1.4% on the previous week. The external market marine 0.5% vs 380cst hsfo swap spread M1 recorded $118.5/t as of Friday, down $1.05 / ton on a month basis.

Crude oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent breaking $71 a barrel. But then international oil prices fell rapidly and began to stabilize and enter a more flat upward trend since Wednesday. We currently believe that the long logic of oil prices has not been reversed significantly. On the one hand, the upward and downward trend of last week is that the price of the previous period has risen too fast, including the pricing of some attacks on Saudi Arabia. At present, it is seen that the local facilities are not damaged in substance, and this “premium” is also falsified. On the other hand, the strength of the US debt interest rate and the dollar index has disturbed the upward trend of oil prices. But in general, the trend of crude oil tightening has not changed. Due to OPEC’s cautious increase in production and the fact that the recovery of shale oil supply in the United States is subject to capital expenditure, it is difficult to match the supply end completely under the background of gradual recovery of demand after the outbreak. This pattern of supply and demand mismatch promotes the continuous de stocking of excess stock and also forms a strong support for the current price of crude oil. Before the supply and demand pattern was broken, we believe that oil prices still have space and drive to continue to rise. Therefore, we maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the crude oil end, and the unilateral price of downstream fuel oil is expected to continue to be supported by the cost side. Of course, the downside risk cannot be ignored completely at present. Both the early return of Iranian oil to the market and the substantial increase of OPEC in the next meeting are significant potential negative factors. Therefore, we do not recommend excessive chasing up for the unilateral price of crude oil and fuel oil.

In terms of the basic aspect of fuel oil, there are some marginal turning trends in the recent high and low sulfur fuel oil (low sulfur marginal turn weak, while high sulfur has stabilized). We mentioned the potential drivers of each other before, high sulfur fuel oil is the seasonal recovery of power generation demand in Middle East and other places, while low sulfur fuel oil is due to the increase in supply caused by overestimation (the previously high sulfur fuel oil cracking price difference was relatively strong in the mass oil). At present, both of these drivers have been shown, but not very obvious. In terms of high sulfur, we have seen the increase in fuel oil demand in Middle East and South Asia in recent years. In addition, the ship period data show that Saudi Arabia’s fuel oil import rebounded significantly in March (estimated import of 710000 tons in March and 440000 tons on February), but there is still room for growth from the procurement volume in peak season. From the perspective of the weak marginal shift of low sulfur fuel oil, some Asian refineries are increasing the production of low sulfur fuel oil in recent years, but the supply of China has not seen this trend (refer to the statistics of jinlianchuang in January and February, the domestic low sulfur production is about 700000 tons). In addition, since Asia, including China, will enter the period of centralized refinery maintenance in March and April, while Brazil’s export is still at a low level, we expect that the probability of significant increase in the supply of low sulfur in the short term is not very high.

In general, we believe that the unilateral price of high and low sulfur fuel oil is expected to rise further under the trend of upward crude oil end. There is no big contradiction in their basic plane at present. The trend of high and low sulfur differentiation has been significantly relieved in the early stage, but there is still insufficient driving force to reverse. Therefore, we expect that the cracking price difference of high and low sulfur fuel oil in the short term and the price difference between them may be in a partial fluctuation trend. In terms of internal market, the Fu external price difference has been in a low position in recent years. This structure is also conducive to the remaining warehouse receipts. We see that 9100 tons of warehouse receipts were cancelled last week and the total amount of warehouse receipts also dropped below 200000 tons. Referring to exchange data, inventory subtotal items also reduced 9100 tons, so these warehouse receipts may have been actually digested by the end consumer market. In the future, if the digestion process of the high sulfur fuel oil warehouse order can be smoothly carried out, the performance of Fu disk is expected to be stronger on the basis of the existing.

Strategy: Fu is cautious in one side, while Lu is more cautious;

Risk: OPEC’s future production exceeded expectations; Iran Oil returned to the market ahead of time; refinery started to rise sharply; shipping demand improved less than expected; distillate oil market performance was not expected; Lu warehouse receipts were registered in large quantities; Fu warehouse receipts were cancelled in large quantities.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10866 yuan / ton on March 8 at the beginning of this week, while the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10866 yuan / ton on March 12 at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable, up 19.41% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the general rise of bulk commodities, styrene futures and spot rose again, and the price of common materials rose, market inquiries and transactions improved. However, the raw material styrene began to fall sharply on Tuesday. In addition, the ex factory listing and settlement price of Huadong PS were lower than last week’s, and the offer of ordinary materials fell by different ranges. The supply of high-end materials and benzene market is relatively tight, with limited decline. According to the data, on March 11, 2021, the benzene penetration revenue of East China market was 10150-13750 yuan / ton, with the low end down 150 yuan / ton and the high end down 50 yuan / ton.

PS inventory continues to increase, supply pressure still exists, and the price difference between PS raw material and recycled material in northern China is too large, which still affects the replacement demand of PS raw material for recycled material.

3、 Future forecast

The PS market is still in a wait-and-see mood, but the profit margin is lower than last week, and there may be limited room for further correction. It is estimated that benzene penetration in East China market will be 10100-13750 yuan / ton.

On March 12, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) rose. According to the data of business news agency, on March 12, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13866.67 yuan / ton, up 1.53% compared with the average market price of 13658.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of March (3.1).

On December 12, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13200-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14500-14700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 14000-14100 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 13900-14000 yuan / ton .

Recently, the bulk commodity market is high, and the market of silicon downstream products is also in a good shape. The price of aluminum alloy is affected by the price of aluminum ingot, and the price of polycrystalline silicon is also on the rise. At present, the new orders of silicone DMC are increasing, and some factories still mainly deliver the early-stage contract after the start of construction. The spot supply is tight, and the price of downstream products is also strong with the rise of raw materials Up, the confidence of the upstream and downstream industry continued to improve.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, after new year’s day, the Spring Festival is approaching, terminal manufacturers have concentrated parking and maintenance, and demand turns weak. The hydrogen peroxide market begins to enter the downward channel, and the price falls continuously, from January to March 11, approaching the bottom of the valley. The market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1430 yuan / ton in early January, 932 yuan / ton on March 11, and the price fell 34.79% as a whole.

According to the performance of hydrogen peroxide in the first quarter of 2020 from December 2020 to March 11, 2021, it has been down for 4 months in February, mainly because of the limited export order of hydrogen peroxide and delay of the start of the end paper printing and other manufacturers. Hydrogen peroxide has fallen for two months in 2021, still more than 30 percent. In early March, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline mainly, with the average price of 932 yuan / ton on November, which was nearly 35% lower than that in early January.

Terminal heating enterprises are expected to rebound hydrogen peroxide in parking

Since February, the traditional consumption of hydrogen peroxide has come off-season. The end printing industry, paper industry, caprolactam and other manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined. In addition, the logistics cost increases, transportation is limited, and the hydrogen peroxide market enters the down channel. During the Spring Festival, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers started normally, increased supply and inventory recovered. After the Spring Festival, the end paper and printing industries have not yet fully resumed construction, and terminal demand is still poor. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers continue to reduce the factory price, and the price continues to decline, reaching 21%.

In March, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to be weak in February, because the end paper and caprolactam market rose sharply, the decline of hydrogen peroxide slowed down, and continued to stabilize. The overall quotation is still weak. On March 11, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer, Anhui Quansheng, stopped and repaired, sold inventory and raised the price.

The terminal has been the turning point of hydrogen peroxide in the industry of lactam paper industry

Although hydrogen peroxide has fallen for two and a half months, the market of end paper and caprolactam is quite good. Paper and caprolactam have been on the rise after the start of 2021.

Paper: because Jiulong many bases released the notice of price rise after the Spring Festival before the festival, the paper factories followed the price increase after the festival. Due to the impact of public health events, the northern region stopped production ahead of schedule. With the stability of post Festival health events, the downstream paper factory started to start working actively, so the demand for raw paper began to increase. With the rising of raw material price and strong demand, the corrugated paper price rose significantly, and as of March 11, the corrugated paper price rose by more than 11.5% compared with the beginning of January.

Caprolactam: after the Spring Festival, on the outside market, the cold weather in the United States has affected the shutdown of crude oil and chemical refineries, which led to a sharp rise in pure benzene. Caprolactam is supported by the rising of pure benzene raw materials, and the general starting rate of the terminal PA6 chip manufacturers have started, with increasing demand, and the market ushered in a rising channel, and the price continued to rise. As of March 11, caprolactam prices rose 28.64% from the beginning of January.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide at the business agency, said: in late March, hydrogen peroxide production enterprises stopped maintenance, supply was tight, terminal market recovered, demand was higher, and hydrogen peroxide would usher in an increase.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of March 10, the average price of domestic butanone market was 8500 yuan / ton, and the average price rose 134 yuan / T, down 1.59% compared with the 9-day (average value of butanone reference 8366 yuan / ton); compared with the price of 1 day (the average value of butanone reference is 8766 yuan / ton), the average price has been decreased by 266 yuan / ton, down 3.04%. Compared with the price of February 18 after the Spring Festival (the average price of butanone reference is 7133 yuan / ton), the average price is up 1367 yuan / T, or 19.16%.

In February, from the end of the Spring Festival to the end of the Spring Festival, the domestic butanone price rose rapidly. In just ten days, butanone market reached a high-end in half a year. The high-end market quotation exceeded 9000 yuan / T, and the 10-day increase reached 18%.

Butanone market continued to decline in March when domestic demand was less than March

In March, under the high price, the wait-and-see mood of the domestic trade market increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. The spot delivery of butanone was generally performed. On March and 4th, the overall price of butanone market declined, and the market price in South China was greatly reduced, and the price fell from 8800-9000 yuan / ton to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the market price in East China was also lowered to different degrees, and the price fell from 8650-8850 yuan / ton to 8 250-8450 yuan / ton. In early June, the main factories of Ding mainly received foreign trade orders and processed the pre orders. The inventory pressure of the factory was relatively small, and the spot of butanone market in Shandong Province was tight. However, the sharp decline in the market for several consecutive days brought a heavy drop. The market price of butanone was difficult to support. On August 8, the butanone price fell again, down by 100-200 yuan / T, and the sales price of butanone was 8200-8300 yuan / ton. Then, butanone was sold in advance at 8200-8300 yuan / ton The market of ketone basically remained stable. On September 9, spot traders began to settle prices. It was heard that on September 9, the quotation of individual traders in South China increased slightly, but the market investment atmosphere was general. On October, driven by the upward price of carbon four after the upstream raw material ether, the cost support of butanone was enhanced, and the butanone price rebounded slightly. The ex factory price of butanone in East China was 8400-8500 yuan / ton, up by 100-300 yuan/ About tons. The cost pressure is increasing, downstream factory procurement is depressed, and the market is mainly stable for operation.

According to the business agency, the following is the reference price of butanone in some parts of China in March

Product region: March 1 March August March 10 rise and fall

Butanone: East China: 8650-8850 yuan / T: 8250-8350 yuan / ton: 8400-8500 yuan / t-300

Butanone South China RMB 8800-9000 / T 8200-8400 yuan / T 8400-8600 yuan / T-400

The game of cold supply and demand in downstream is continuously high and weak, and the short-term market is adjusted mainly by narrow amplitude fluctuation

The demand downstream of butanone is cold and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. The market supply and demand game is obvious. From the supply and demand side, the driving force of butanone is not enough. Therefore, the analysis of butanone data of business society believes that the domestic butanone market market in the short term is mainly adjusted by narrow range fluctuation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the demand change of downstream raw materials.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, as of March 9, the average price of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate 50 particle samples was 2833.33 yuan / ton, up 1.80% from the average price at the beginning of the month, and up 1.74% from the same period of last month.

In early March, the potassium sulfate Market was positive, and the domestic potassium sulfate price was stable after rising. In terms of inventory, it is reported that the potassium sulfate inventory of major ports is stable recently, and the inventory in the market is mostly held by large businesses. The upstream potassium chloride market has a positive trend in the near future, with a certain increase. The cost side support of potassium sulfate was strengthened, driving the spot price up. With the preparation of spring ploughing, the demand for compound fertilizer and potassium fertilizer has increased. From the perspective of on-site trading, at present, there is rigid demand in downstream factories, but the orders are small, and the response to high price supply is general. In terms of supply, the overall domestic reserves are stable, the inventory of terminal sellers is limited, and the big sellers have a certain control over shipment.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency potassium sulfate analysts believe that: at present, potassium sulfate manufacturers offer generally up, recent spot prices generally up 50-100 yuan / ton. Global petrochemical bulk products and direct upstream potassium chloride are generally stronger, which strongly supports the cost of potassium sulfate. Domestic market trading situation is general, inventory and supply situation is stable. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will be high in the near future.

Today, the price of epoxy resin has been raised in some regions. At present, it is 8400 yuan / ton in East China, 8400 yuan / ton in North China, 8200 yuan / ton in South China, 8600 yuan / ton in Central China and 8400 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

Due to the continuous tight inventory and strong purchase intention of downstream purchasers, the external price of ethylene in Asia rose for six consecutive days, up 14.29% compared with the beginning of the month. After the domestic ethylene price increased by 500 yuan, it has now reached 8800 yuan / ton. Today’s price of Luxi Chemical ethylene is 8200 yuan / ton, and the average price of ethylene is around 8500 yuan. Based on the external price of US $1200, ethylene oxide has lost 67 yuan, while the estimated profit of ethylene glycol is around 185 yuan. Therefore, the manufacturers are more willing to switch to ethylene glycol, and the EO supply side is further tightened. Due to the high price of ethylene and tight supply, the price of epoxy still has room to rise. The downstream polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer was closed in Ling’an, Hubei Province today, while Sanjiang and Shanghai Dongda both rose by 200 yuan. The current market price of monomer is 10600-11100 yuan / ton, and the terminal demand is more resistant to the current monomer price, so there is no market for it. In the later stage, it is still necessary to wait for the terminal demand to further expand.

Affected by raw materials and supply side, it is still bullish.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas was 2000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 1983 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.83%.

2、 Market analysis

On March 2, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1900 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last time; Anhui Aodeli quoted 1870 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1950 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, 930 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid, the same as last week; Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical quoted 1900 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, the same as last time Shandong Heli Tainong nitric acid quoted 2100 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time. Local nitric acid supply pressure is obvious, and the market is not smooth.

The upstream liquid ammonia market rebounded after falling in February. According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall decline of liquid ammonia in the whole month was 0.20%, and there was still upward space in March; the domestic market price of downstream aniline rose 2.4% this week. TDI rose 2.67% in East China this week.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the downstream favorable effect, business analysts expect that the price of nitric acid may rise.