This week (November 17-21), the price of polyester bottle chips showed a fluctuating downward trend. On the 17th, it fell by 15 yuan/ton to 5745 yuan/ton due to the drag of crude oil; The price remained stable for the time being, and on the 21st, it weakened again by 10 yuan/ton, closing at 5710 yuan/ton. The price range for the supply of goods in the East China region has gradually decreased throughout the week, from 5650-5800 yuan/ton to 5630-5750 yuan/ton. According to data from Shengyi Society, on November 21st, the average selling price of PET was 5740 yuan/ton. The market supply and demand are weak, the cost side support is insufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere is light
Cost side support continues to weaken: International crude oil prices fluctuated downward this week, driving upstream raw material prices such as PTA and ethylene glycol to weaken synchronously. The cost side of polyester bottle chips lacks effective support. Taking the 21st as an example, due to the decline in crude oil and raw material prices, the center of gravity of the bottle chip market has shifted downwards, and the poor transmission of costs has made it difficult for factories to maintain high prices. Some companies have slightly lowered their prices along with the raw materials.
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Overall loose supply side: The industry operating rate this week was 70.9%, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous week. Despite the alternating maintenance and restart of China Resources equipment and the delayed production of Dongying Fuhai new equipment, the overall supply fluctuation in China is limited, and spot supply is abundant. At the same time, the available days of inventory in the bottle factory increased by 0.46 days compared to the previous week, and the slow accumulation of inventory further strengthened the pattern of loose supply.
Continued weakness in demand side procurement: Currently in the traditional off-season of demand, coupled with the fact that Spring Festival stocking has not yet started, downstream factories are holding onto essential needs for replenishment, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm and a lack of willingness to chase price increases. In addition, the production of soft drinks from January to September decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, and the performance of the terminal beverage industry was sluggish, making it difficult to effectively stimulate bottle consumption. The market had few actual orders and transactions, and the overall trading atmosphere was light.
The export market continues to be weak: this week, the overall export prices of domestic polyester bottle chip factories have stabilized, with slight downward adjustments in some areas. The mainstream quotation in East China is $760-770/ton FOB Shanghai Port, while the quotation in South China is $750-765/ton FOB main port. The lack of positive boost on the export side makes it difficult to offset the weak domestic demand, and the overall weak pattern has not changed.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its volatile trend in the short term, with prices fluctuating within the range of 5650-5800 yuan/ton, and the trend will mainly follow the dynamic adjustment of upstream raw material prices.
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