price trend
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained stable at a low level in early September, with most spot prices of various brands remaining stable. As of September 9th, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 14250 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of September
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In September, domestic PC aggregation enterprises experienced narrow fluctuations in load, with a slight decline from 82% at the end of last month to 79%. The average weekly production level within the range is over 65000 tons, and the on-site supply is abundant. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. At present, the scheduled rotation and parking of Lihua Yiwei Yuan’s blowing task and Wanhua Chemical Plant are coming to an end. At the same time, the load of Zhejiang Petrochemical is gradually returning, and the future supply is expected to continue to be loose. The shipment pressure of the aggregation plant remains unchanged, and the market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A significantly rose in early September. Upstream phenol and acetone both showed a narrow increase, which has a certain boosting effect on bisphenol A. On the other hand, the inventory digestion of bisphenol A enterprises has slightly improved the pattern of loose supply. However, overall, the support effect of bisphenol A on the cost of PC is discounted due to the constraints of PC’s own supply and demand situation.
In terms of demand: Currently, PC is at the junction of traditional off-season and peak season, but downstream factory loads have not rebounded, inventory remains at a weak level of rigid demand, and there has been no early warehouse construction operation. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, it is difficult to improve the supply-demand contradiction within the range. In addition, with weak foreign trade orders, terminal enterprises are under pressure and are resistant to high priced sources of goods. On the other hand, the financial pressure on traders has increased synchronously, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts and taking orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the beginning of September, the domestic PC market remained low and sideways. The upstream bisphenol A market has risen, and the increase in cost value has a certain stabilizing effect on PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants remains stable with small fluctuations, and expectations for the future market are relaxed, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand has not increased significantly, and industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the traditional peak season. At present, PC prices are at a historical low, and it is recommended to closely monitor the demand side consumption situation in the market.
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