According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 17, the domestic PTA spot market price was 3685 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from the previous day, down 34.49% year on year. In the futures market, main futures (2009) rose slightly to close at 3712, up 32% or 0.87% from the previous trading day.
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Crude oil market price rose. On June 16, the settlement price of WTI crude oil main contract in the United States was $38.38/barrel, up $1.26, while Brent crude oil main contract was $40.96, up $1.24. Positive factors such as higher US stocks and record month on month rise in US retail data in may reflect more signs of recovery in the US economy, and a good expectation of OPEC + production reduction. With PX’s help, the closing price of Asia on the 16th was 527 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 547 US dollars / ton CFR China, up 27 US dollars / ton from the previous day. The price of PX in China is maintained at 4100 yuan / ton. In terms of plant, the 650000 ton / year PX plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance on June 19 and is expected to last until July 5.
Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit
Yangzi Petrochemical 65 plans to overhaul by the end of June 2020
Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined
Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined
220 stop at night on May 19 and restart in late June
Shanghai Petrochemical entered into maintenance on May 18, and planned to restart on June 19
Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined
Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 April 19-july 22, 2019 shutdown for maintenance
Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July
Fuhaichuang 450 takes off and lands negative alkali washing on June 8, and plans to resume
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In terms of PTA plant, the current operating rate is maintained at 87%, and the 3 × 650000t / a PTA plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Company is in normal operation, and the maintenance is planned at the end of June. Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton PTA plant load is increased, Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical’s 400000 ton plant is planned to be restarted on June 19, later, Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton plant is planned to be restarted in late June, Pengwei Petrochemical’s PTA plant is planned to be restarted in July, and the supply side will be pressurized. In addition, the domestic social inventory reached around 3.55 million tons, close to 90000 tons compared with that at the end of May, but it is still at a high level. In addition, Hengli 5 × unit is expected to be put into operation in late June, and the short-term PTA accumulation situation is hard to change.
In the downstream polyester market, the 8th PET production unit of Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation on June 12, with an increase in PTA demand. The current starting load is around 86%. At present, various varieties of polyester are still differentiated. In addition to staple fiber and bottle chips, the market of main products filament is still poor. After two short-term production and sales peaks since May, polyester market once again enters the situation of accumulation. At the same time, as the textile and clothing consumption off-season in June, the end inventory has not been effectively digested, and the purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. Compared with the same period of last year, with the characteristics of off-season becoming more and more obvious, polyester load continues to rise under greater pressure, and there is a possibility of lowering in July. The price is stable, among which the price of polyester 150D / 48F from mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 5700-5900 yuan / ton. In addition, the weaving load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is stable at 63.40%, but it is still at a low level year on year.
Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that in the short term, crude oil rebound and PX rise are good for PTA market mentality. However, due to the fall of oil price in the early stage, which benefits PTA production link, PTA processing fee keeps rising from March to April, and the recent increase of PX is far weaker than that of the upstream market, so that PTA production profit remains at a good level of 700-800 yuan / ton. The early maintenance device will speed up the resumption of production, which makes it possible for the factory with maintenance plan to postpone, further increasing PTA supply pressure. At the same time, facing the traditional off-season of summer textile, the demand for external orders is still variable, the terminal demand is uncertain, the purchase intention of downstream manufacturers is not high, the market continues to be weak, and the overall transaction atmosphere remains light, which is not conducive to the digestion of PTA inventory. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA continues to rebound the lack of power, the later callback probability is larger.
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