.Due to weak demand, in 2013 , the domestic methanol market penetration of low light slow down after opening . After half a year after the grind , the probe in mid- July to the lowest point in nearly three years. Then, zoom in demand , domestic production increased production enterprises , foreign enterprises to focus on several major overhaul of methanol and other good push , methanol market rebounded strongly, such as rainbow rally . To mid- December , prices rose to the highest point of the year. Compared with mid-July , or more than 50%. But the end of the final stage , the surge in supply , downstream businesses continue to cut production due to the New Year under pressure factors , the price fell rapidly .
But this does not mean that the new year will be the methanol market downturn . Comprehensive analysis of various factors , 2014 hot methanol market, although the market is unlikely to be staged in the second half of 2013 , but the high, the possibility of a mild rise greatly.
Capacity to play rate is not high
Latest statistics show that : in 2013 the domestic methanol production capacity of approximately 56.5 million tons . Among them, the coke oven gas to methanol production capacity of 9.6 million tons , natural gas, methanol production capacity of 10.8 million tons , coal production capacity of 36.1 million tons of methanol ( containing ammonia production capacity of 8.1 million tons linking alcohol ) . In the production , the real effective production of 8.1 million tons of methanol alcohol can be associated only 3.6 million tons . Factors ” two high” backward production capacity, as well as the economic slowdown affected countries to control air pollution , accelerate the elimination of iron and steel , etc. , in 2014 , the demand for steel is difficult to society as a whole increased substantially , possibly even negative growth , to reduce coke demand compression coke production scale , so that coke oven gas methanol plant faces no rice to cook embarrassment , thus reducing coke coal methanol production capacity of about 3.5 million tons . Natural gas methanol plant , the inadequate supply of gas by the gas price rise dual constraints , the actual capacity may play only 650 tons.
2014 , the total capacity of the national plan methanol plant production of about 600 million tons, according to 40% operating rate, the actual production capacity of 2.4 million tons of methanol added . Effective domestic methanol production capacity ManDaManSuan only 46.6 million tons . And when domestic consumption is expected to exceed 41 million tons of methanol . If the annual net imports of methanol 4 million tons , the domestic methanol plant average load rate of 80.9% , significantly alleviate the problem of excess production capacity .
Weaken the impact of imported products
In recent years, the domestic methanol market has continued to slump , in addition to their own excess capacity , but with a lot of the impact of low-priced imports of methanol are not unrelated . But domestic coal prices continued to decline since May 2012 , so that the head of methanol enterprises tons of coal production costs plunged more than 400 yuan , already low price of natural gas and methanol foreign competition strength. According to the China Coal Industry Association predicted : strictly controlled by domestic coal consumption , coal overcapacity , as well as Australia , Indonesia and other coal -producing countries announced that it will continue to increase coal production and other factors , in 2014 , the coal market will remain sluggish , prices may continue lower run , head of domestic coal enterprises cost advantages more apparent methanol , methanol will curb net imports fell slightly to 400 million tons , the domestic methanol market running smoothly to form an effective support.
New applications faster consumption growth
After several years of nurturing and development of the scale , methanol fuel , methanol to olefins and other new applications have been expanding into new markets and promote the healthy development of methanol engine . Methanol to olefins , for example, the current domestic production of methanol to olefins completed a total of six sets , the total production capacity of 2.66 million tons of olefins , at an average load factor of 85% , the annual consumption of more than 670 million tons of methanol . 2014 will be a total of 6 sets of 3 million tons of methanol to olefins project into production, running at an average rate of 30 percent , adding 2.7 million tons of methanol demand .
Methanol fuel include dimethyl ether, methanol fuel vehicles and methanol gasoline . Although affected by various factors , dimethyl ether and methanol fuel vehicle promotion is not smooth , but it is still a significant cost advantage has been more and more consumers. Due to concerns of the industry standard DME blending the first half of 2014 is expected to be introduced, will enable DME as an alternative fuel for civilian legality get the final confirmation , consumption is expected to substantially increase the amount of methanol in the field of consumption this year is expected to climb to 400 tons. Currently, the country has more than 20 pilot provinces and cities to promote the low proportion of M35 methanol gasoline or less , in 2013 included the first pilot of Shanxi , Shaanxi and Shanghai three provinces
City high proportion of methanol auto pilot work to be substantial start . 2014 pilot program will be expanded to more cities , methanol, gasoline filling stations will also continue to increase , the relevant standards will be further improved with the use of methanol to make the car more widely , will increase substantially in the field of methanol consumption to 4.5 million tons .
2014 , Shanxi Coal 300,000 tons / year, a new industry in Xinjiang 100,000 tons / year , Shaanxi Bao nitrogen 120,000 tons / year , and many other items will be put into operation MTG , MTG domestic total capacity is expected to reach 1 million tons , adding methanol consumption of 1 million tons / year. In other words , even formaldehyde, acetic acid , MTBE and other traditional methanol zero growth in the consumer market , thanks to pull several emerging markets in 2014 , Chinese consumption will grow 5.2 million tons of methanol .
In addition, Chen Shun including Shandong new energy companies, three companies have successfully developed DMM3-8 ( poly dimethyl ethers ) technology, and to achieve a successful operation of industrial pilot plant . Due to the physical properties of diesel DMM3-8 similar, without the need for engine oil system transformation can use directly to reconcile . And its cetane number up to 76 , 47 percent to 50 percent oxygen , sulfur -free aromatics in diesel blending 10% to 20 %, which can significantly reduce the pour point of diesel fuel , improve the combustion characteristics of diesel , dramatically reducing emissions. Therefore , great efforts to control air pollution in China , and control PM2.5 emissions, and diesel demand backdrop , DMM3-8 bound to get faster application, to become the new engine pulling the methanol market continues to improve .
Expects methanol market has experienced in the warm-up for up to five years of decline bottoming and 2013 in the second half of 2014 will be driven by a variety of favorable factors , demand continued to enlarge , stable and rising prices , continued out Manniu market a long time .
