1、 Recent market price changes

Spot benchmark price: As of February 4, 2026, the domestic spot price for melamine is 5712.5 yuan/ton. Daily increase: 37.5 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.66%.
Recent cumulative increase: Since January 28th, the price has started at 5637.5 yuan/ton, stabilized after two price increases on January 29th and 30th, and rose again on February 3rd. In the past week, the cumulative increase has been 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33%.
From an upstream and downstream perspective, this round of ‘stabilizing small and medium growth’ is the result of short-term demand encountering long-term surplus, with a weak foundation.
Upstream (cost): weak support. The price of the main raw material urea is weak, and there is no upward trend in production costs. On February 4th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1777.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month (1782.50 yuan/ton).
Midstream (production): high pressure. The serious overcapacity in the industry is the fundamental problem, and any price increase may be suppressed by sufficient supply.
Downstream (demand): Short term driving force. Mainly supported by seasonal stocking in the sheet metal industry after the Spring Festival, but this demand is temporary.
Simply put, downstream stocking provides a “window” for price increases, but the two mountains of upstream costs and midstream production capacity determine limited and unsustainable room for price increases. The key to the market situation depends on whether the demand drops after the subsequent stocking is completed, and whether the production capacity is substantially cleared.
3、 Comprehensive market analysis
In summary, the price of melamine has achieved a slight increase amidst fluctuations, reflecting certain market support. Manufacturers in different regions make flexible adjustments based on their own inventory, orders, and regional supply and demand, with prices fluctuating, indicating that the market is not a one-sided trend. This small increase is a short-term fluctuation. From the perspective of industry background, the melamine market has long faced the fundamental situation of continuous capacity expansion and overall oversupply, which limits the space for significant price increases.
Overall, the current market has experienced short-term regional and small price rebounds in the context of long-term loose supply.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, as of January 31, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 is 9650 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (the market price for silicon metal # 441 is 9620 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%.

Supply continues to tighten in January, and the metal silicon market remains stable with a narrow upward adjustment
In mid to early January (January 1st to January 25th), the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 remained stable at 9620 yuan/ton, and the silicon metal market was in a weak supply-demand balance, with prices remaining stable and the overall market showing no significant fluctuations. Approaching the end of the month (January 26 to January 31), driven by expectations of supply contraction and other factors, prices have slightly increased. In some regions, the market price of metal silicon # 441 has narrowly increased by about 50 yuan/ton, and the overall domestic price has risen to 9650 yuan/ton. The overall market trend shows a calm beginning of the month and a slight upward trend at the end of the month.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: The operating rate in the southwestern production areas (Sichuan, Yunnan) remains low, with most manufacturers shutting down their furnaces and production, resulting in a contraction in supply. Some enterprises in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places have carried out early maintenance or reduced production due to losses, further tightening market supply and supporting market prices.
In terms of demand, downstream industries such as polysilicon and organosilicon have shown relatively weak demand, with low purchasing willingness, which has suppressed the upward space for prices. The game between low demand season and supply contraction resulted in stable prices in the early stage and a slight increase at the end of the month.
Market analysis in the future
In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, logistics will gradually shut down, and there will be limited changes in the market situation of metal silicon, mainly manifested as stable and narrow adjustments in operation. In the long run, after the holiday, the market needs to pay more attention to the actual implementation of upstream production reduction plans. If the supply contraction exceeds expectations, prices can tend to strengthen after the holiday. We also need to pay attention to the improvement signals of downstream demand, especially factors such as changes in operating rates in the polysilicon and organosilicon industries.

1. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by Business Society, copper prices experienced significant fluctuations in January. At the beginning of the month, the price was 99,180 yuan per ton, while by the end of the month, it rose to 104,496.67 yuan per ton, marking an overall increase of 5.36% and a year-on-year rise of 34.05%.
According to the spot-futures chart from Business Society, copper futures prices in October initially exceeded spot prices, with the main contract reflecting an expected price two months ahead, indicating a relatively weaker outlook for copper prices in the future.
According to LME inventory data, LME copper stockpiles showed a slight decline in January. By the end of the month, LME copper inventory stood at 174,975 tons, up 22.75% from the beginning of the month.
Macro perspective: In January, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with the market still expecting two rate cuts in 2026, potentially delayed until the second quarter. The U.S. dollar index fell below 96, hitting a four-year low, which supported commodity prices priced in dollars. The reduced cost of purchasing non-dollar currencies boosted demand.
Supply Side: Global copper mine production growth is only 0.9%, with frequent incidents such as the Mantoverde strike in Chile and the Grasberg landslide in Indonesia. ICSG forecasts a 80-100 million ton shortfall by 2025. China’s copper concentrate import dependency exceeds 90%, with long-term contracts (TC) dropping to $0/ton. Policy-driven dual safeguards of “overseas cooperation + recycled recycling” aim to achieve 28% recycled copper by 2028. Refineries face production cuts due to low processing fees, with domestic refined copper output reaching 1.326 million tons in December (up 9.1% YoY), but social inventories accumulated to 225,900 tons. COMEX inventories exceeded 550,000 short tons, indicating the U.S. siphoning effect.
Downstream sector: New energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 19 million units (a 15.2% year-on-year increase), with an average copper consumption of 83 kg per vehicle. The accelerated construction of ultra-high voltage power grids and AI-driven demand will add over 1 million tons. However, elevated copper prices have dampened downstream procurement, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory rising to 327,500 tons in January. Spot premiums have turned into discounts, reflecting weak market sentiment. The post-February holiday season effect is evident, with processing enterprises gradually going on leave and weakening raw material procurement demand.
According to the annual price comparison chart, over the past five years, copper prices have risen more often than fallen in February.
In summary, copper prices demonstrate resilience amid macroeconomic bullish and bearish dynamics. Short-term vigilance is warranted against high-level pullbacks, while medium-to-long-term factors—namely demand from new energy sectors, low interest rates, and geopolitical risk premiums—support a higher price equilibrium. Copper prices are expected to primarily fluctuate within a wide range in February.

This week (1.26-1.30), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region rose, with an average market price of 16350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16750 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.45%.
Since the beginning of this week, the prices of related products have continued to show an upward trend due to factors such as changes in market supply and demand and cost push. From a regional perspective, the market performance in Shaanxi region is relatively unique. Some companies choose not to provide external quotations due to their own sales strategies, while others have raised their quotations to 17000 yuan/ton. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, many enterprises in Shaanxi region have explicitly stated that they will suspend shipments before the Spring Festival based on holiday arrangements and inventory management factors.
supply side

Shaanxi and other major domestic magnesium production areas maintain stable output, and the overall supply capacity has not shown significant fluctuations. At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaches, the inventory of magnesium ingots that can be circulated in the market continues to decline, leading to a tightening of supply in the circulation process. In this context, magnesium smelting enterprises generally adopt a stable price strategy based on cost support and changes in supply and demand patterns, maintaining a strong external quotation trend, and the market price system shows strong resistance to decline.
Demand side:
Given that the meteorological department predicts that there will be continuous snowfall in the magnesium producing areas in the future, and the traditional peak consumption season of Spring Festival is approaching, downstream industries have gradually launched pre holiday stocking plans based on considerations of logistics disruptions and rigid consumption demand during the holiday period that may be caused by weather factors. With the advancement of the stocking cycle, the market procurement activity has significantly increased, and the trading willingness of both supply and demand sides continues to strengthen, driving the overall transaction situation to show a steady recovery trend.
Cost side:
Recently, due to multiple factors such as changes in market supply and demand, as well as fluctuations in international energy prices, coal prices have continued to rise. This change directly leads to a significant increase in production costs for industries that rely mainly on coal as their energy or raw material. At the same time, the market prices of key raw materials such as blue charcoal, ferrosilicon, and dolomite remained relatively stable and did not adjust significantly with fluctuations in coal prices, thus forming a relatively solid support in the cost structure and effectively buffering some of the cost pressures caused by the rise in coal prices.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, magnesium prices have shown significant fluctuations, but the overall trend is positive. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stockpiling orders are gradually being released. At the same time, the long-term demand for downstream magnesium alloy applications is also accelerating. Based on this, it is expected that the market will continue to develop steadily and positively before the Spring Festival.