Price trend: (October 1 – October 17) showed an “N”-shaped oscillation

According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, as of October 17, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was reported at 122,2583 yuan per ton, showing a 0.07% increase during the period and an 8.46% year-on-year decline. The market was primarily driven by the intense interplay between supply tightening expectations triggered by Indonesian policies and the reality of global overstocking represented by high inventory levels.
Price Drivers: The Tug-of-War Between Policy Expectations and Weak Fundamentals
After the holiday, Indonesia’s sudden shift in mining policy injected a strong boost into the market. The effective period for nickel mining quotas was significantly reduced from three years to one year, signaling the government’s strong reclamation of production control rights to stabilize nickel prices. This policy immediately triggered market concerns about tightening future supply, driving nickel prices up by 1.22% in the early post-holiday period.
However, weak fundamentals quickly overshadowed the stimulus effects of policies. Excessively high visible inventories globally, coupled with sluggish demand in traditional sectors such as stainless steel, led to a sharp rebound followed by a decline in prices, resulting in near-zero fluctuations throughout the entire cycle.
Supply side: Long-term concerns hard to resolve near-term surplus dilemma
1. Policy fluctuations emerge as the biggest variable: Although the new Indonesian policy did not immediately reduce current spot supply, by increasing the frequency of future quota approvals, it introduced uncertainty into medium- to long-term nickel supply, becoming a key factor supporting market sentiment.
2. Unprecedented Inventory Pressure: In stark contrast to policy concerns lies the harsh reality of severe inventory. Global visible inventories continue to accumulate, reaching record highs, with LME nickel inventories surging by 19,218 tons to 250,530 tons and SHFE inventories soaring by 2,225 tons to 27,042 tons. This massive inventory serves as the most direct evidence of supply glut, persistently constraining nickel prices from rising.
3. Clear Supply Growth Trend: According to Macquarie’s forecast, driven by a surge in Indonesian supply, the global nickel market will remain oversupplied for an extended period until 2030. Indonesia accounts for 70% of global production, and its substantial production capacity base along with sustained growth expectations are projected to reach 2.4-2.5 million tons by 2025, fundamentally limiting the long-term peak of nickel prices.
Demand Side: Weakness in Traditional Sectors Coexists with Prospects in New Energy
1. Weak demand support for stainless steel: As the primary consumption sector for nickel, the stainless steel market exhibits a pattern of “high production but weak inventory reduction.” Post-holiday social inventories have accumulated, with prices fluctuating weakly, indicating that end demand has not kept pace with supply, failing to effectively drive nickel prices. On October 17, the benchmark price for stainless steel on Business Society was 13,037.50 yuan per ton, down 0.13% from the beginning of the month.
2. The new energy sector offers long-term incremental growth: Positive factors stem from technological advancements. China has achieved significant breakthroughs in all-solid-state lithium metal battery technology, with the potential to double driving range. Solid-state batteries generally utilize high/ultra-high nickel ternary materials, and the clarity of this technological path outlines a broad growth trajectory for future nickel demand. Although large-scale commercial deployment is expected by 2026-2027, this long-term positive outlook provides crucial downside support for nickel prices.
Market Outlook: A mix of bullish and bearish sentiments, with wide fluctuations remaining the dominant trend

It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term, with a “top and bottom” pattern.
·The upward drive depends on the subsequent implementation of Indonesian policies, the replenishment demand of the new energy industry chain, and the fermentation of macroeconomic expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.
·The downward pressure comes from the continued suppression of high global inventories, the realization of actual supply growth in Indonesia, and the weak consumption in the traditional stainless steel sector.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PP market remained weak in October, with prices of various grades mostly declining. As of October 16, the quoted price of PP filament benchmark was 6,790 yuan/ton, showing a 1.88% decrease compared to the early October price level.
Price trends

In terms of raw materials:
Since October, the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have persisted, while the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts have boosted the crude oil market. On the other hand, OPEC+ has initiated a new round of production increases totaling 1.65 million barrels per day, yet concerns over long-term supply glut remain. The easing of tensions in the Middle East, coupled with weakening U.S. demand and trade barriers, has dragged down global economic growth and demand expectations, leading to a sharp decline in international oil prices. In the case of propylene, recent demand absorption has been insufficient, resulting in a rapid decline. Fortunately, inventories remain relatively manageable, and prices have stabilized with a slight rebound near mid-month. After a rebound in propane prices post the holiday season, supply tightening and weak overseas trading dragged prices lower by mid-month. Overall, the price movements of various PP raw materials have been mixed, providing only modest cost support.
Supply side:
In the first half of October, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises fluctuated with limited overall changes. As of the time of writing, the industry’s average operating rate stood at 77%, comparable to the level at the end of September. The weekly average total output exceeded 770,000 tons. The future market shows a clear trend of ample supply, severely limiting the support from the supply side. Currently, the market maintains sufficient supply, with inventory levels accumulating to over 820,000 tons. Overall, the PP supply side provides weak support for spot prices.
Demand side:
In the first half of October, the polypropylene market remained in the traditional peak season, with some degree of improvement in demand from sectors such as plastic weaving and agriculture. Although new orders in the packaging film sector also increased, the upward momentum in market activity was limited. Moreover, the positive impact of improved trading sentiment was offset by numerous negative factors. The announcement of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the U.S. tariff disputes dampened market expectations. Additionally, low operational capacity among downstream enterprises and slow inventory digestion during the National Day holiday period hindered the anticipated surge in PP consumption during the peak season, while also failing to provide robust support for demand.
Market Outlook
In the first half of October, domestic PP market prices continued to decline weakly. From a fundamental perspective, upstream raw material prices showed mixed performance, providing limited overall support for PP. Industry production remained at high levels with narrow adjustments, and future supply is expected to be ample. On the consumption side, improvements were limited, lacking positive guidance for market trends. Currently, the market does not exhibit clear signs of peak season, and PP’s upward momentum faces significant resistance. It is anticipated that weak adjustment trends may persist.

This week, the melamine industry is facing significant supply and demand pressure, with prices continuing to decline and overall market sentiment being bearish. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5550.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to last week (5562.25 yuan/ton).

The current weak performance of the market is the result of supply-demand imbalance, weakened cost support, and the combined effect of external environment.
Oversupply: The industry’s production capacity continues to increase, but downstream demand has not kept up, resulting in a low operating rate of 69% for enterprises. Even if some companies undergo temporary maintenance, it is difficult to reverse the overall situation of loose supply.
Weak demand: The core downstream board industry is underperforming due to the sluggish real estate market. At the same time, the market’s mentality of “buying up and not buying down” has also made downstream purchases more cautious, resulting in a weak overall buying and selling atmosphere.
Weakened cost support: The price of the main raw material urea is in a weak downward channel, and the cost support for melamine is insufficient, providing space for price decline. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (1621.25 yuan/ton).
Export obstruction: The EU has imposed anti-dumping duties on multiple Chinese companies, increasing export difficulties and further exacerbating sales pressure in the domestic market.
Based on comprehensive information from various sources, the melamine market is unlikely to see any improvement in the short term, and the market is expected to continue a weak consolidation pattern. The contradiction between supply and demand remains the core issue, and any rebound in prices will face significant resistance.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on October 14th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was referenced at 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.10% from October 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9720 yuan/ton).

After the holiday, the metal silicon market returned to weak operation
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that during the National Day holiday in October, the domestic silicon metal market was mainly in consolidation and operation, with little change in the market conditions and relatively calm fundamental realization. Returning after the holiday, the overall silicon metal market has slightly decreased in operation, with some regions and grades of silicon metal negotiating a narrow downward trend. On October 9th, the market price reference for silicon metal # 441 in Tianjin was 9550-9650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. Subsequently, the market continued to weaken and consolidate. As of October 14th, the market price of metal silicon 441 in East China is around 9600-9700 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it is around 9700-9800 yuan/ton The market price reference for metal silicon 441 in Huangpu Port area is around 9700-9800 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
Macroscopically, in the early stage, the industry discussed the revision of energy consumption standards for metallic silicon, which had a certain boosting effect on the market at that time. However, there was no substantial implementation, and the overall market sentiment weakened.
On the supply side: Prior to the National Day holiday, some major manufacturers of silicon metal resumed production, resulting in an overall increase in market supply and a weakened atmosphere in the silicon metal market. After the holiday, the overall market supply expectation continues to increase, and the support provided by the supply side to the market is insufficient.
On the demand side: After the holiday, the downstream demand for metallic silicon has shown loose performance, with the downstream mainly digesting early raw materials and partially restocking on dips. The overall boost from the demand side to the market is average.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the fundamental performance of the silicon metal market is weak, with continuous loose supply and strong demand. Business Society’s silicon metal data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7240 yuan/ton on October 1st and 7145 yuan/ton on October 13th, a decrease of 1.31%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9596 yuan/ton on October 1st and 9500 yuan/ton on October 13th, a decrease of 1.01%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7912 yuan/ton on October 1st and 7825 yuan/ton on October 13th, a decrease of 1.11%.
Polyethylene showed a weak downward trend after the holiday. Last Friday, WTI crude oil plummeted and cost support loosened, suppressing the polyethylene spot market. After the holiday, inventory has accumulated, and the recent increase in imported resources to ports still puts pressure on the supply side. After the holiday, agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating. However, demand is lower than the same period in previous years, and downstream orders mainly maintain the need to replenish inventory. The macro lacks favorable conditions, the market mentality is bearish, and businesses are actively offering discounts for shipments, resulting in a decline in the polyethylene market.
In the fourth quarter, new polyethylene plants were put into operation one after another. In terms of plant maintenance, the maintenance plan has been reduced compared to the previous period, and the supply pressure of polyethylene is relatively high. There is an expectation of an increase in demand, but the demand growth is not as strong as the supply, and polyethylene may mainly experience weak fluctuations.

Market price:

The current price performance of the melamine market can be summarized as “flexible fluctuations under weak consolidation.” As of October 10, the benchmark price of melamine on Business Society was 5,562.50 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the beginning of the month (5,550.00 yuan/ton). This price remains relatively low compared to the year-to-date and recent years. However, the actual market transaction price range is extremely wide, with the lower end of negotiations potentially dropping as low as 5,050 yuan/ton.
This reflects a situation where “artificially high” prices coexist with the reality of “hidden reductions.” High-end quotations more reflect the price-supporting intentions of major production enterprises, while low-end transactions reveal weak real demand and strong bargaining power downstream.
The short-term flexible price increases are primarily driven not by strong demand but by proactive supply contraction and the marginal support of cost lines. When some companies reduce production due to losses, leading to temporary localized supply tightness, prices exhibit tentative rises. However, these price increases lack a solid foundation, and once prices rebound to a certain level, they face downward pressure from hedging positions and traders eager to liquidate their holdings, resulting in weak upward momentum.
Supply side:
The supply side serves as the most crucial stabilizer in the current market, yet it is also fraught with constraints. With an industry operating rate of 50%-55%, far below healthy levels, this situation is not a voluntary choice by enterprises but rather the combined effect of “passive shutdowns” and “active price maintenance.” Some high-cost, outdated facilities, due to persistent “price-cost inversion” (theoretical losses ranging from 100-200 yuan/ton), can no longer sustain production and have been forced to exit. Meanwhile, leading companies have consciously reduced their operating loads and scheduled centralized maintenance to regulate market supply, aiming to reverse the supply-demand balance—a strategic approach to “production cuts for price stabilization.”.
The biggest pressure on the supply side stems from high factory inventories. Inventory days are generally around 15-20, far exceeding the safety threshold, which acts like a heavy burden on production enterprises, straining their cash flow and testing their pricing confidence. Meanwhile, the urea market, a key raw material, continues to decline due to its own supply-demand imbalance, depriving melamine of a critical cost support. This has consistently squeezed the profit margins of production enterprises, pushing them to the brink of profitability.
Demand side:
The demand side is the weakest link in the current market, with its sluggishness being structural and widespread. The primary downstream industry of melamine—panel and coating sectors—is closely tied to the prosperity of the real estate construction industry. The real estate sector remains in a deep adjustment period, with continuous declines in newly started and ongoing construction areas, directly leading to a contraction in the rigid demand for melamine. Downstream factories themselves face insufficient orders, with operating rates significantly dropping year-on-year, resulting in extremely low procurement willingness for raw materials.
Downstream customers have generally adopted a “low inventory” operational strategy and are generally bearish or cautious about future market conditions. Their purchasing behavior follows a rigid “buy as needed” model, with small single orders and extreme price sensitivity. This results in an inability to form effective, sustained market demand pull.

The international market demand is also sluggish, and the competition for low-cost products from the Middle East and other regions is intensifying, resulting in a significant year-on-year decline in the total export volume this year. This forces a portion of the production originally intended for export to be converted to domestic sales, further exacerbating the supply pressure in the domestic market and forming a vicious competition cycle.
Looking ahead to the future, the melamine market will be in a continuous game of “weak reality” and “strong expectations”.
Short term trend (within the next month): It is expected that the market will continue the pattern of “bottom oscillation”. The price center of gravity is difficult to effectively increase and is more likely to fluctuate widely within the current low range. The upward space will be firmly blocked by high inventory and weak demand; The downward space will be supported by companies’ losses and willingness to reduce production. Any price rebound will be short-lived and unsustainable.
In summary, the melamine market after October 2025 is in a difficult bottoming stage. Market participants should abandon their illusions of a unilateral surge and instead adapt to seeking opportunities amidst volatility. In terms of operation, the purchaser should maintain a low inventory and small batch strategy; The sales party should focus on reducing inventory and maintaining cash flow as the core tasks. Closely monitoring changes in inventory, costs, and macro policies will be the key to grasping the next stage of the market.

During the 2025 Double Festival period, the domestic acrylonitrile prices will mainly be adjusted at a low level. As of October 9th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8050-8150 yuan/ton, and the short distance delivery price in Shandong market is 7950-8050 yuan/ton, both slightly lower than before the festival.
Market analysis:

In October, the domestic supply of acrylonitrile increased significantly, and some pre maintenance facilities were restarted one after another. Coupled with the increase of new production facilities, the industry’s capacity utilization rate increased to nearly 80%, while the overall demand remained relatively stable, leading to further weakening of the fundamentals. At the same time, during the long holiday period, enterprises accumulated inventory, and the market as a whole showed a situation of oversupply. Under the pressure of excess resources, the market fluctuated downward, and some acrylonitrile factories continuously lowered their quotations, dragging down the atmosphere of the spot market. However, on the first day after the holiday, businesses were mostly cautious and cautious, and the inquiry atmosphere was relatively average.
Looking back at the past three years, the acrylonitrile market experienced both ups and downs during the National Day holiday. The main reason for the market fluctuations was that acrylonitrile companies reduced production and inventory in advance to adjust inventory pressure before the holiday. In addition, downstream companies had a certain demand for stocking before the holiday, and the trading atmosphere on the market was good. Therefore, the trading center remained firm and shifted upwards. However, in recent years, with the continuous increase of domestic acrylonitrile production capacity, the problem of oversupply has become significant, resulting in a continuous decline in downstream stocking efforts.
Fundamental analysis:
On the supply side, there is currently no equipment maintenance plan for the acrylonitrile plant in October. During the holiday, the acrylonitrile plant has accumulated inventory. In addition, there is an expectation of restarting the maintenance equipment in the early stage, and there are fewer working days this month. Therefore, the pressure on the supply side of the acrylonitrile market has significantly increased.
On the demand side, in terms of domestic ABS, although some new devices have been delayed in production and some maintenance plans have been postponed, there are still plans for some new devices to be put into production, and some maintenance devices are gradually returning to normal. If there are no unplanned maintenance, the start-up rate in October will increase slightly. In terms of acrylic fiber, although there may still be fluctuations, due to frequent equipment rotation and maintenance in the early stage, the overall fluctuation amplitude is expected to be limited, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly. But the overall demand has not changed much.
Future forecast
In terms of cost, the upstream propylene price will be dominated by changes in the supply side, and it is expected that the propylene market will operate weakly, which may weaken its cost support for acrylonitrile. In terms of supply, the maintenance equipment in early October will be restarted one after another, and the supply of acrylonitrile in the market will continue to increase. In terms of demand, the operating rates of downstream main fields such as ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide are generally maintained at a low level of 60% -70%. The support for acrylonitrile demand is limited, and the mismatch of supply and demand growth pace in the acrylonitrile industry has led to a situation of oversupply once again, and the pressure of accumulated inventory and losses will coexist. In the short term, the market will fluctuate and weaken, and there may be variables in the long-term supply side. The supply-demand relationship needs to be improved.

Indonesia’s mining policy has undergone a sudden change! The validity period of mining quotas has been directly shortened from three years to one year, with immediate effect. The quota for 2025 is still valid, but miners must resubmit applications for the mining quota from 2026 to 2027. The government’s strong withdrawal of production control rights aims to stabilize the prices of key resources such as coal and nickel.
Affected by policies, the market’s expectation of tightening nickel supply quickly heated up. On October 9th, the reference price of nickel in Shengyi Society was 124000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22% in a single day. However, short-term policy benefits cannot mask long-term fundamental pressures. The global nickel market is still shrouded in the shadow of oversupply, and it is expected that the oversupply will reach as high as 256000 tons in 2026, which will continue to suppress the upward space of prices.

1. Price Trends

According to the Business Society’s Commodity Market Analysis System, the reference average price of domestic 85% industrial-grade phosphoric acid was 6,670 yuan per ton on September 30, compared to 6,700 yuan per ton on September 1, marking a 0.45% decline in domestic 85% industrial-grade phosphoric acid prices this month.
II. Market Analysis
The domestic phosphoric acid market experienced a fluctuating trend this month, with prices rising initially and then declining. In the first half of the month, domestic phosphoric acid prices saw a slight increase. The raw material yellow phosphorus market remained relatively stable, with no significant fluctuations in costs. Phosphoric acid trading remained steady, with downstream buyers purchasing based on demand. In the latter half of the month, domestic phosphoric acid prices experienced a downward fluctuation. The price of yellow phosphorus dropped, weakening cost support. The phosphoric acid market followed the trend of raw material prices downward, while supply and demand in the phosphoric acid market remained stable.
Market trends
As of September 30, the ex-factory price of 85% hot phosphoric acid in Hubei region was approximately 6,400-6,800 yuan per ton, while in Sichuan region it was around 6,300-6,700 yuan per ton, and in Yunnan region it stood at about 6,450 yuan per ton.
Raw material market trends
Raw material yellow phosphorus market trends. This month, the yellow phosphorus market experienced a weak decline. Supply in the yellow phosphorus market is ample, while demand has weakened. Downstream inquiries have decreased, with many buyers pressing for lower prices. As the National Day holiday approaches, manufacturers are lowering prices to offload inventory and ease stock pressure.
III. Market Outlook
The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society noted that the recent market for phosphoric acid has been stable and well-organized. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been weak, lacking sufficient cost-side support. Currently, the trading activity in the phosphoric acid market remains decent, with downstream demand for restocking before the holiday. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will remain stagnant and well-organized in the short term.

In September 2025, the overall nickel price showed a fluctuating pattern of “weak supply and demand reality” and “macro emotional disturbance” in a game. Despite favorable stimuli such as Indonesian policies and the global copper mine incident during this period, nickel prices had limited room for rebound due to the dual suppression of global explicit inventories continuing to accumulate to historical highs and weak recovery in stainless steel demand, ultimately leading to a monthly decline.

1、 Price Trend Review: With ups and downs, the center of gravity shifts downward
Early October (9.1-9.11): Under pressure and downward trend. The price dropped from 124566 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 121750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26%. Global nickel inventories continue to rise to historic highs, coupled with lower than expected demand for traditional “gold nine” stainless steel, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market.
Mid month (9.11-9.23): Strong oscillation followed by a pullback. The US CPI data and unemployment claims have strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices to a slight rebound to 123750 yuan/ton. However, due to high inventory and weak demand, nickel prices subsequently fell back.
Late period (9.23-9.30): high and low. Indonesia strengthens mining regulations and the world’s second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, enters a force majeure situation, causing concerns about global metal supply and driving nickel prices briefly to 124400 yuan/ton on an emotional level. But before the holiday, the risk aversion sentiment heated up, and the excess pressure on fundamentals was not fundamentally relieved, causing prices to rise and then fall back again.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122500 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 1.66% for the whole month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.21%.
Macroscopically, long and short factors are intertwined, and nickel prices fluctuate and fluctuate
Negative factors:
The final value of the annualized quarterly GDP rate for the second quarter of the United States has been significantly revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two-year high; At the same time, the number of initial jobless claims for the week decreased, indicating economic resilience. Strong data boosted the US dollar index to rebound above 97.2. The strengthening of the US dollar has directly increased the purchase cost of nickel priced in US dollars, significantly suppressing global nickel prices and being a negative factor limiting the rebound space of nickel prices in September.
Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, it is cautious and has not promised to continue cutting rates in the future. This move was interpreted by the market as a ‘hawkish interest rate cut’, dispelling investors’ expectations of rapid liquidity easing, boosting the rise of the US dollar, and indirectly strengthening the suppression effect on nickel prices.

Beneficial factors:
The Indonesian Ministry of Energy has imposed administrative sanctions on 190 mining companies that have not paid reclamation deposits, involving approximately 30 nickel companies. Although this move did not immediately interrupt supply, it has raised concerns in the market about the stability of mining policies in Indonesia, the world’s major nickel supplier. Combined with the Indonesian copper mine incident during the same period, the theme of “mining disturbance” was formed, which brought several brief rebound forces to nickel prices.
Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine, is experiencing force majeure due to mudslides. Although this incident does not directly involve nickel, it has triggered widespread concerns in the market about the global metal supply chain, and bullish sentiment has spread throughout the basic metal market, indirectly driving nickel prices to briefly rise.
Non farm employment in August fell far short of expectations, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits surged in early September. These data reinforce the market’s expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates (with a probability of over 96%). The expectation of interest rate cuts will help improve the global economic growth prospects and metal demand expectations, providing slight support for nickel prices.
Supply side: High inventory pressure hanging on top, loose supply pattern unchanged
Global inventory surge: LME nickel inventory surged by over 21000 tons to 231312 tons within the month; The nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly by 2912 tons this month, reaching 24817 tons. The global total inventory is at an absolute historical high, which is the most crucial factor suppressing nickel prices.
Supply continues to be loose: The Philippines is in the peak season for shipments, and Indonesia’s mining policies and regulations are tightening. The benchmark price for domestic nickel ore in October was 15101.67 US dollars per ton, an increase of about 0.68%. At present, the supply remains loose. According to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), there will be a global nickel market oversupply of 244300 tons from January to July 2025.
Demand side: Traditional sectors are weak, and new energy provides long-term support

Low demand for stainless steel: As the main consumer area of nickel, the transaction atmosphere in the stainless steel market is average, and end-users purchase according to demand. During the month, some stainless steel plants were affected by ultra-low emission production line renovations and maintenance, which affected their output. However, the overall stainless steel production output is still relatively high, providing essential support for nickel prices. On September 30th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was reported at 13055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% during the month.
New energy prospects support: From January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s new energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 38%, with a penetration rate of 45%. The trend of high nickel content in ternary batteries is clear, and nickel sulfate, as the core raw material, still has a long-term demand gap, which is the most solid optimistic expectation to support nickel prices in the future.
Future prospects
In the short term, the fundamental pattern of “high inventory” and “weak demand” is difficult to quickly reverse, and nickel prices will continue to operate under pressure. However, there is also support below:
Cost support: The Indonesian nickel iron cost line forms a certain bottom support for the price.
Policy disturbance: If Indonesia’s mining rectification policy continues to intensify, it may trigger market concerns about supply stability.
Long term positive news: The strong growth in the new energy sector determines that the strategic demand position of nickel remains unchanged.
Summary: Nickel prices fluctuated and closed down in a long short game in September. The market is seeking a balance between “weak reality” and “strong expectations”, and nickel prices are difficult to break out of a trend upward trend until there is a clear turning point in inventory or substantial improvement in stainless steel demand.