Recently, the market price of melamine has started a continuous upward trend. As of August 19th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07% compared to last week (5700.00 yuan/ton). Although the current price is still lower than the same period last year, the continuously expanding month on month growth rate and the steady upward trend of market prices.
| Melamine |
At the beginning of August, the operating load of the melamine industry briefly rebounded to around 50%, but due to the continuous high temperature weather, the equipment in major production areas such as Sichuan and Anhui passively reduced load, and the overall load rate of the industry has fallen back to 40%. The contraction of supply has led to sustained low inventory in the market, and some manufacturers have adopted a strategy of controlling quantity and accepting orders, driving prices to rise accordingly.
From a regional perspective, transaction prices in the northern region have stabilized at around 6000 yuan/ton at a high level; The mainstream price range in the central and eastern markets is 5700-5900 yuan/ton; Affected by local supply contraction, prices in the southwest region have risen to 6100 yuan/ton; The Xinjiang region presents an independent market trend due to transportation radius restrictions, with transaction prices fluctuating narrowly within the range of 5000-5400 yuan/ton.
The urea market will maintain a volatile pattern within a narrow range. As of August 19th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1766.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% compared to the beginning of this month (1812.50 yuan/ton). Under the dominance of supply contraction, the melamine market continues to show a warm trend. Although there is no strong driving force on the raw material side, the overall stable cost support effect of urea is still significant. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of low operating rates in the industry, it is expected that the upward channel of melamine prices will continue.
Overall, the current melamine market is still dominated by three major positive factors: the support of export advance receipts, the decline in industry operating rates to 40%, and the significant bottoming out effect of raw material costs, which jointly strengthen manufacturers’ determination to raise prices. Although the terminal board industry has slowed down due to high costs, the shortage of spot goods is difficult to solve in the short term (although there are few repairs, it is difficult to offset the impact of low operating rates), coupled with the market’s “buying up” mentality fermentation, mainstream enterprises are actively raising prices. It is expected that under the short-term tight supply-demand balance, prices will continue to rise, and there is currently no signal of easing the supply gap.
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